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Size Of Market For A345/B772LR?  
User currently offlineLutfi From China, joined Sep 2000, 759 posts, RR: 0
Posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 2229 times:

How big is the market for C market aircraft? (B772LR and A345)

Some back of envelope thoughts

You need 2 aircraft for a daily long haul flight. So that is about a 300m USD investment per route (adding in spare parts, engines etc)

Using the rule of thumb that leasing costs are 1% a month (or, using 20 year depreciation and 7% interest costs) the cost of the aircraft (before any operating costs) will be 36m USD a year.

With 260 seats, 365 days a year, 80% load factor, that gives you 76,000 r/t trip tickets a year.

So the cost of the aircraft alone is 475 USD a ticket!

Plus aircraft are more expensive to operate that their B market cousins. So no one in their right mind will buy one unless they really, really need it for a very high yield route.

So, that means no sales in Japan (only route worthwhile for C market is TYO-JNB?) as they can fly everywhere worthwhile with a B market aircraft (Europe, USA, ME)

Probably no sales in Europe, for the same reason

Possibly required for some Oz-US routes (SYD-ORD?)

Required for some SEAsia-USA routes (SE Asia to LAX/NYC. Maybe YVR/YTO/SFO, but I doubt those markets would support paying a big premium for non stop)

Required for some JNB routes? (Japan, USA)

Required for some ME-USA and OZ flights – again, doubts about the yield premium…

It looks difficult for C market aircraft, in total, to sell much more than the B747SP. Certainly won’t be sales in the multiples of 100’s.

Thoughts?


15 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6841 posts, RR: 64
Reply 1, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 2190 times:

I think it's a very fair question. For all Boeing's hype about the arrival of the 200LR, they have a derisory number of orders for the plane. Airbus can claim a few more customers and sales but it does seem that the airline world has failed to get excited about either.

The 300ER will sell as a 747 replacement. The A346 also has a respectable number of serious customers already. But their longer range little brothers?


User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3965 posts, RR: 13
Reply 2, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 2033 times:



US-India is another large, growing C-market.

Economics of longhaul also need to include cargo which may cover 20% of the operating cost.

If it is viable for Singapore Airlines to operate to JFK and LAX with 181 seats, there should be many markets that can be profitable with ~250 seats.







User currently offlineVirginFlyer From New Zealand, joined Sep 2000, 4537 posts, RR: 42
Reply 3, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 1969 times:

The other thing which you should think about with these aircraft is that they don't just allow you to operate longer routes, but they also allow you to operate existing routes without payload restrictions. For instance, the Sydney Dubai route could be operated by a B market aircraft (777-200ER), however there would be fairly strict payload limitations (more so on SYD-DXB, where you are travelling into the prevailing wind I believe). With a C market aircraft (A340-500) Emirates can operate on the route with passengers, and more importantly, cargo.

On the subject of cargo, Boeing projects a market for 200 777 Freighters (which will use the 777-200LR airframe). If the 777 Freighter performs up to expectations (and Boeing seem to have a good track record with just that), it should be as desirable a freight aircraft as the MD-11, so there is no doubt that they could sell 200 of them. I'd feel comfortable in saying that the number will be somewhat more than that. From what I have gathered, the A340-500 will not make nearly as good a freight aircraft as the 777-200LR, but there could still be a market for a freight version of it too...

I think it is clear that even though the A340-500 and the 777-200LR will not sell as well as other members of their family, there is a market for these aircraft, even if initial sales may seem sluggish.

V/F



"So powerful is the light of unity that it can illuminate the whole earth." - Bahá'u'lláh
User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 1951 times:

If it is viable for Singapore Airlines to operate to JFK and LAX with 181 seats, there should be many markets that can be profitable with ~250 seats.

How do you propose SQ will stuff in 250 pax in a 772 using a similar density configuration it has with the A345? The A345 has a longer fuselage that pretty much compensates for the added cabin width of the 772, so even if SQ operated the 772 in a 2-4-2 Premium Y class configuration, any extra seats per row would be compensated for by the A345's longer cabin.



User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 1923 times:

Quoting Lutfi (reply 0):
How big is the market for C market aircraft? (B772LR and A345)

Not that they're the only C-market aircraft available anymore  Big grin


Quoting Incitatus (reply 2):
US-India is another large, growing C-market.

Actually, it's technically overwhelmingly B-market... though C-market aircraft would increase capability and flexibility


User currently offlineVirginFlyer From New Zealand, joined Sep 2000, 4537 posts, RR: 42
Reply 6, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 1895 times:

Quoting ConcordeBoy (reply 5):
Not that they're the only C-market aircraft available anymore


What else is there?

V/F



"So powerful is the light of unity that it can illuminate the whole earth." - Bahá'u'lláh
User currently offlineAseem From India, joined Feb 2005, 2045 posts, RR: 10
Reply 7, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 1884 times:

it is expected that AI and IC together will order 50+ aircraft. The possible choices being discussed are A345/346 and B772/773. The decision is long delayed but will eventually go through. Moreover private Indian carriers too are looking for similar aircrafts for their international routes starting soon. Currently they are planning to lease, but will buy their own sooner or later.
rgds
Aseem



ala re ala, VT-ALA ala
User currently onlineFriendlySkies From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 4096 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 1802 times:

Boeing has said they expect to sell around 500 772LRs in the next 20 years...I honestly don't see this happening, but hey, who knows...



User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12444 posts, RR: 100
Reply 9, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 1781 times:
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Quoting Incitatus (reply 2):
US-India is another large, growing C-market.

Actually, it's technically overwhelmingly B-market... though C-market aircraft would increase capability and flexibility


Maybe its being here on the west coast with its large Indian communities, but it seems that a HUGE C-market exits to India. Also, India-US east coast takes a huge payload hit with winds, so this goes with the "B-market with more payload" replies of this thread.

Oz-DFW is a huge opportunity waiting to happen. ORD... not yet.

Lutfi, I get a lower cost per seat per flight... but not a huge difference: these will never be cheap flights! Hey, LHR-Oz... That would be one profitable C-market. (In my humble opinion.)

Lightsaber



I've posted how many times?!?
User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3965 posts, RR: 13
Reply 10, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 1749 times:



>>> Actually, it's technically overwhelmingly B-market... though C-market aircraft would increase capability and flexibility

Is it really? If you look at the great circle distances, some can be covered by the 777-200ERs. But then throw in a couple of wars, honorary memberships to the axis of evil and the Himalayas. The actual distances covered and flying times are at best up to -ER ranges with payload restrictions.




User currently offlineAseem From India, joined Feb 2005, 2045 posts, RR: 10
Reply 11, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 1734 times:

Quoting Incitatus (reply 10):
the Himalayas

i traveled AC's A340-500 from DEL-YYZ. They too avoided Himalayas in spite of having 4 engines. The idea might be to avoid if you have the range.
rgds
Aseem



ala re ala, VT-ALA ala
User currently offlineDaumueller From Germany, joined Nov 2003, 687 posts, RR: 6
Reply 12, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 1674 times:

I could imagine, that there could even be a very good market LHR-SYD in an all-C-Class config.

what do you think?


User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 1647 times:

Why does SQ necessarily need the 772LR's additional cargo hauling capabilities on its C-Market Routes when this seems to largely duplicate capacity they already have with their large dedicated cargo fleet?

User currently offlineBOEING747400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 319 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 1633 times:

Any comments about BKK-JFK-BKK & BKK-LAX-BKK routes that Thai Airways might use the 345/772LR combo alternatively on them?

User currently offlineZK-NBT From New Zealand, joined Oct 2000, 5209 posts, RR: 11
Reply 15, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 1615 times:


Quoting BOEING747400 (reply 14):
Any comments about BKK-JFK-BKK & BKK-LAX-BKK routes that Thai Airways might use the 345/772LR combo alternatively on them?


What are you talking about? TG haven't ordered the 772LR or said anything about BKK-LAX non stop. It's a bit hard to fly a plane and route when you haven't ordered or announced it.

Back to the original topic, what are the chances of NZ ordering some 772LR's in the future for say AKL-JFK or AKL-ORD? Or are these within range of the 787?


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