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EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants  
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 10132 times:

Flight International 03/01/05:

"Taiwanese carrier questions the financial viability of the 772LR on ultra-long-haul services."

According to Lee Jen-Ling, Deputy Senior V.P. Corporate Planning, "...the airline is still evaluating whether ultra-long-haul services are financially viable....whether there would be sufficient demand for such services, or whether one-stop service would be better financially." The example cited by Ms. Jen-Ling is Taipei/New York.

According to the article EVA could switch it's order to the 773ER or 777F, and has until next year to make its decison, as deliveries of its firm order for three 772LRs don't commence until 2008.

[Edited 2005-02-28 11:23:55]

[Edited 2005-02-28 11:31:41]

83 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAerorobNZ From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 7184 posts, RR: 13
Reply 1, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 10042 times:

that would bugger things up for boeing. Is BR to 772LR as SQ was to M11?

User currently offlineAntares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 39
Reply 2, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 10002 times:

Well something is going on. SQ isn't moved by the 777-200LR yet clearly thrilled with the 777-300ER and Dixon was reported as querying the operating costs of the -200LR when he did a press interview after the last financial results in mid February.

User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6882 posts, RR: 63
Reply 3, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 9987 times:

Quoting Leelaw (reply 0):
the airline is still evaluating whether ultra-long-haul services are financially viable....whether there would be sufficient demand for such services, or whether one-stop service would be better financially.


Am I naive in sort of assuming that they might have asked those questions BEFORE they placed the order?! Or have things changed?

60% of Boeing's 772LR backlog at risk! Wouldn't it be funny if nobody bought it?


User currently offlineQFA001 From Australia, joined May 2000, 673 posts, RR: 54
Reply 4, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 9963 times:

Quoting Antares (reply 2):
Well something is going on.


This may be make or break time for the B772LR. There is a few airlines in the world that are currently deliberating the A345 or B772LR. So, 2005 may be the year that the B772LR proves fruitious or failure.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9956 times:

On Singapore Airlines, I have the feeling they are using the A345/388 to give their products in F, C & M a next phase boost. Lounges, extra seatroom etc.

However other types must follow to safeguard product/service consistency.

Take the A380 roomy product specification on a 772LR and you don't have a lot of seats left (200-220?), sending seat/mile costs skyhigh.

Better put that product specification on a 773ER to get a reasonable load (240-250?) and probably most of the same LR destinations (by limiting TOW/cargo).


User currently offlineUshermittwoch From Germany, joined Jan 2004, 2965 posts, RR: 16
Reply 6, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9924 times:

Quoting Leelaw (reply 0):
Flight International 03/01/05


Are you a psychic?  Big grin

Anyway, I don't see why EVA would really need a 777LR, because almost all markets that are worth exploring (and within unrestricted non-stop, max payload range) can be better served with the 777-300ER.



Where have all the tri-jets gone...
User currently offlineLutfi From China, joined Sep 2000, 771 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9905 times:

It is the B747SP reborn...

As everyone else says, it is very heavy (MTOW wise) & expensive to use, unless you really need it. Most will pass, and go for 772ER or 773ER instead, much better value for money


User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9891 times:

If they go for the freighter, well then EVA would still be getting a 772LR. Since all 777s are built on the same assembly line, I think the impact on Boeing is negligible. The comparison to the MD-11 does not hold since that was a distinct type and not a variant.

User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9876 times:

Quoting Ushermittwoch (reply 6):
Are you a psychic?


If only I were...I have Flight International delivered online, it generally arrives late Sunday or early Monday...when some of the content is actually newsworthy.  Smile/happy/getting dizzy


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6882 posts, RR: 63
Reply 10, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9876 times:

Quoting QFA001 (reply 4):
2005 may be the year that the B772LR proves fruitious or failure.


I go for fruitious, definitely. Wink/being sarcastic


User currently offlineJuventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 9698 times:

Any other markets (passenger) in the USA or Europe that they might open? I was hoping for 777 service to ORD and IAH.

User currently offlineAS739X From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 6123 posts, RR: 23
Reply 12, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 9626 times:

Rely #3...60% of Boeing's 772LR backlog at risk! Wouldn't it be funny if nobody bought it?

Just like, Wouldn't be funny if the A380 never flew  Smile

The 777LR will do fine. This is one airline and if this planes is like the 773ER, once flight testing begins and it performs better then predicted then its game on!

ASSFO



"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently offlinePANAM_DC10 From Australia, joined Aug 2000, 4137 posts, RR: 90
Reply 13, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 9569 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
COMMUNITY MANAGER

Quoting PM (reply 3):
60% of Boeing's 772LR backlog at risk! Wouldn't it be funny if nobody bought it?


As stated in the original post, they could switch to 773ER or 772LRF. EVA already have 12 B773ER on firm order so any conversion would suit their current fleet planning. Somehow, I don't think we'll see no-one buying it.

Regards



Ask the impossible to achieve the best possible
User currently offlineJuventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 9501 times:

I'm telling you, those 18 flights....I would be on suicide-watch at the end of one of those.

User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 9256 times:

Quoting Juventus (reply 11):
Any other markets (passenger) in the USA or Europe that they might open? I was hoping for 777 service to ORD and IAH.


If BR determines that New York/Taipei with the 772LR is not feasible, why would service to Chicago or Houston make any more sense?


User currently offlineN757KW From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 435 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 9183 times:

I use to work for BR in Cargo. Back then, BR was looking for a 50/50 split of revenues between passenger and cargo. You can not load a lot of belly cargo on these long haul flights if they run full.

N757KW



"What we've got here, is failure to communicate." from Cool Hand Luke
User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 9139 times:

K folks, couple of things:


First of all, this was easily predictable two years ago when they sent out the release that the twice (now quadruple) range/payload boost on the 773ER made flights to Paris and New York feasible for them with that aircraft.

Secondly, I called the switch to 772LRF the moment they moved their deliveries back to 2009.


Says practically nothing about the 772LR program in and of itself, particularly when this carrier placed orders five years ago.


User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10677 posts, RR: 9
Reply 18, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 9078 times:

I second Concordeboy here. By 2009 Eva Air might need smaller freighters to replace the MD11fs and to play the minor role besides 747-400Fs/SFs.

User currently offlineFriendlySkies From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 4105 posts, RR: 5
Reply 19, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 9069 times:

A lot of you are forgetting, all of the design costs of the -200LR have been covered by -300ER sales. Boeing could sell ZERO 777-200LRs and not lose a dime on the project.

User currently offlineThe777Man From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 6546 posts, RR: 55
Reply 20, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 9037 times:

I think it's important to keep in mind that this is something that MAY happen. As of now, EVA Air (BR) still have 3 777-200LR on order.

The777Man



Need a Boeing 777 Firing Order....Further to fly....CI, MU, LX and LH 777s
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 9026 times:

Quoting FriendlySkies (reply 19):
Boeing could sell ZERO 777-200LRs and not lose a dime on the project.


What about costs specific to the 772LR program like flight test and certification?


User currently offlineTeamREGAL From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 114 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 9006 times:

Quoting NA (reply 18):
I second Concordeboy here. By 2009 Eva Air might need smaller freighters to replace the MD11fs and to play the minor role besides 747-400Fs/SFs.


And what smaller freighter are you referring to? Since when was the 777 "smaller" than the MD-11? The last time I checked, the two planes are pretty much about the same size with the 777 being a bit bigger.



You would dare to challenge me? .........Insanity!
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 8931 times:

Quoting TeamREGAL (reply 22):
And what smaller freighter are you referring to?


Perhaps he meant smaller than the 744, in the same size class as the MD11?


User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 24, posted (9 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 8874 times:

Are they mainly concerned about the weight and increased fuel expenses for long haul services or the upfront cost of the aircraft, or both?


ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
25 Avek00 : "K folks, couple of things: First of all, this was easily predictable two years ago when they sent out the release that the twice (now quadruple) rang
26 NA : leelaw, thanks for stepping in. Of cause I meant that the 777LRF is smaller and therefore secondary to the 747-400F, not to the MD-11F. I thought I´d
27 Cedarjet : That makes no sense. A secretary working on the 777LR for an hour is a cost, let alone building the plane, flying it etc. The cost of the LR is tens
28 Leelaw : The article is brief, about 300 words. The author doesn't report or speculate on the specifics of why the 772LR wouldn't be "financially viable" for
29 AA737-823 : Keesje:"Take the A380 roomy product specification on a 772LR and you don't have a lot of seats left (200-220?), sending seat/mile costs skyhigh." Uhhh
30 Post contains images Airbazar : A lot of you are forgetting, all of the design costs of the -200LR have been covered by -300ER sales. Boeing could sell ZERO 777-200LRs and not lose a
31 Carfield : I really think it has nothing to do with the product itself, other than BR's own flight plans. I feel that BR may well that TPE-EWR nonstop may not be
32 Scbriml : While I believe a significant % of 772LR development costs have probably already been covered by the equivalent development costs of the 773ER (not s
33 ConcordeBoy : Nope. SQ has "not evaluated Boeing's offer" and obviously will not formally do so until after test results are completed.
34 Widebodyphotog : If you're talking about a route such as TPE-JFK-TPE the 777-200LR could handle that with Max structural payload availible on the Eastbound segment an
35 Post contains images Glideslope : You know, your right!! It's another SP.
36 FriendlySkies : Scbriml, Cedarjet, Leelaw: The 777-300ER and 777-200LR are part of the same general development program. As thus, many of the development costs are sh
37 Keesje : The additional costs Boeing is making on top of the cost they made for the 300ER.. Well building 1 prototype alone is at least $250 miilion I guess. C
38 Iowa744Fan : Take the A380 roomy product specification on a 772LR and you don't have a lot of seats left (200-220?), sending seat/mile costs skyhigh. This is compa
39 Avek00 : "SQ has "not evaluated Boeing's offer" and obviously will not formally do so until after test results are completed." Which, interestingly enough, SQ
40 SunriseValley : QFA001..reply #4... Thus by implication, what does this imply for the A345 looking forward?
41 M27 : "Which, interestingly enough, SQ did not feel the need to do vis-a-vis the A345 - wonder why they're waiting till the 772LR actually flies before cons
42 Atmx2000 : Which, interestingly enough, SQ did not feel the need to do vis-a-vis the A345 - wonder why they're waiting till the 772LR actually flies before consi
43 Iowa744Fan : Well building 1 prototype alone is at least $250 miilion I guess. Certification related engineering, testing etc on top of that. Say total $350 millio
44 Keesje : Going with your results: cost of $350 million translates to a break-even point of about 30 aircraft? Is this the same scale used on the A380 break-eve
45 Iowa744Fan : Keesje, I am not arguing your figure of $350 million (hence the going with your results). I am just commenting on your calculation of 30 aircraft as t
46 Bill142 : I can think of one person.
47 Post contains images ConcordeBoy : ...um, from whence exactly do you derive that notion? nah, I'm not all that concerned how it does in sales... I'm just happy the 777 will regain its
48 Trex8 : >Even LHR to cetain extent... maybe TPE-BKK-LHR make more sense thatn TPE-LHR nonstop. BR only has one long haul to Europe and that is Paris how do th
49 RJ111 : Therefore, they did not lose any money designing it, they simply didn't make as much. Word it however you like, until Boeing sells enough 772LR's to j
50 Post contains images JBirdAV8r : I hate to be picky, ConcordeBoy (that's a lie ), but it's "Whence exactly do you derive that notion?" "From" in combination with "whence" is redundan
51 OldAeroGuy : I think this would be a correct conclusion if BR drops the LR without acquiring the F. Don't forget, the 772LR is the basis of the 777F. Most of the
52 Aerorobnz : Yes I think that is true. After all the MD11 has made good as a freighter.
53 B2707SST : Let's please keep something in mind here: the 777-300ER and the 777-200LRF are both more expensive than the 777-200LR. If Boeing is "hurt" by having a
54 Post contains images Lockheed1011 : B2707SST, Well said! You know your stuff....
55 N1120A : No, not in the least. SQ was a major customer with a huge order for the MD-11, BR is far from the most important potential customer for the 772LR The
56 PM : Marginal if it's just an order for three aircraft out of a long and successful production run but rather more than "marginal" in other circumstances.
57 QFA001 : Of course they can afford it. They just can't afford to make a habit of it. IMHO, Keesje did a great job of estimating the cost of developing the B77
58 Iwok : More is at stake here than just a few sales. Bragging rights for the longest range aircraft is a big part of this equation. Keesje, how do you define
59 Leelaw : Accounting gimmickry? A competent cost accountant would tell you that the method of analysis you suggest is too crude to be really meaningful. If you
60 Airbus Lover : EVA Air (BR) is in no way related to Evergreen International but in any case, Eva Airways Corp is related to Evergreen Marine Corporation of the Ever
61 N1120A : Thanks, I saw someone else had put Evergreen International before and I ran with it. Still, Evergreen Group is a major cargo mover and that is EVA's
62 Post contains images Osteogenesis : And I am still happy that Airbus was the first to enter service. [Edited 2005-03-01 11:16:47]
63 Widebodyphotog : The first 777-200LR is not a prototype nor does Boeing build prototype aircraft anymore. The first aircraft is a production aircraft that will be del
64 Scbriml : Generally true, but in this specific case, said airline represents 50% of the current customer base and 60% of current sales.
65 Widebodyphotog : That's assuming the current customer base remains at 4 or 5 aircraft for the next 20 years. There will be many more orders for 777-200LR and EVA's re
66 PM : Would it need to be GE? Couldn't a PW or RR 2ER do the job? (This is a genuine simple question and not some oblique dig at anyone / anything. Some pe
67 Widebodyphotog : The GE and R-R powered 777-200ER's are almost equal in terms of payload/range performance but the GE powered ships burns less fuel. The PW powered -2
68 PM : Widebodyphotog Thanks for a straight (and interesting) answer to a straight question!
69 Avek00 : "Quoting Avek00 (reply 39): Which, interestingly enough, SQ did not feel the need to do vis-a-vis the A345 ...um, from whence exactly do you derive th
70 Post contains images Scbriml : Absolutely, and why I particularly stated current customers and current sales, of which EVA currently represents a very significant proportion.
71 Iowa744Fan : QFA001, Quoting Iowa744Fan (reply 45): I am not arguing your figure of $350 million (hence the going with your results). I am just commenting on your
72 ConcordeBoy : Actually 93,400 on the Trent895. That said.... I've always been curious as to why airlines who derate their available thrust (e.g., CO) can maintain
73 Post contains images QFA001 : Highlight (mouse-over left-click) text you wish to quote and hit "Quote select text". I think Keesje was a little off with his methodology, but the r
74 B2707SST : Just to clarify, I'm not saying it doesn't matter how many 777-200LRs Boeing sells. Quite the contrary -- if they only end up selling 3 or 6 or 10 772
75 Atmx2000 : Disclaimer: this assumes that the 773ER is more profitable to build and sell than the 772LR. That may not be the case, but I think it's a reasonable a
76 B2707SST : I'm not sure I understand your comment. There is only one 777 line in Everett, so the 772LR and 773ER are perfect substitutes when it comes to delive
77 PM : Not really. Try putting a -115 on a 2LR or a -110 on a 3ER! GE might need a bit of notice to build the right one. (In fact, two!)
78 N1120A : Same engine, different software settings.
79 Atmx2000 : I was under the impression that the maximal annual 777-300 production would be less than the maximal 777-200 production on the 777 line..
80 TeamREGAL : NA and Leelaw: Thank you both for clarifying that point for me. That was my fault in misreading your post. REGAL
81 Leelaw : Then "accounting gimmickry" does serve some useful purpose?
82 B2707SST : Oh, absolutely. Those metrics are the only way of determining ex post whether a project was worthwhile. However, they do not exist in a vaccum -- i.e
83 Leelaw : Does anyone in the forum know when the second 772LR (C/N 33782, L/N 519) will roll off the assembly line? Will this aircraft participate in flight tes
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