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What Is Boeing's Next Project?  
User currently offlineIrishpower From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 386 posts, RR: 0
Posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 4786 times:

I was just wondering what everyone thought Boeing's next commercial project (after the 787) will be.

I have read that there are a couple of ideas out there.

A. The obvious 747 ADV or any other improved derivatives (composite) of the 747.
B. A revamped, composite follow up to the 737 line.
C. An all new single isle design to replace the 737 line.
D. An all new widebody design, made to compete with the A380.
E. Nothing for quite a while
F. Continued improvements to the 777.

I was just wondering where everyone thought Boeing was headed in the next 10-15 years.

19 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineAvObserver From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 2478 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 4645 times:

The 747 Advanced IF there's enough interest for a launch order would be the most immediate next commercial project. There's a midyear decision coming up on whether to proceed with it or close the 747 line, definitely an either/or choice. Though I don't expect big orders for this latest and almost certainly last 747 proposal, I think there's enough interest to proceed with it, perhaps prolonging the 747 line another 10-15 years. I'd expect the most demand for the freighter model but I won't rule out significant sales of the passenger variant, mostly to Asian carriers. It's make or break time for the 747, if the Advanced isn't a go, the line will soon be history. I think BCA is going all out to avoid that, particularly given the bad PR a decision to close the line, taken at about the same time the virtually certain one to close the 767 line, would have. The 767 is definitely dead, at least commercially; Boeing doesn't want the double whammy negative connotation of making the same decision for the 747 at about the same time. I still think there's some hope for the old girl, in the Advanced variant, in a modest but profitable relative niche market, given its unique capacity, it won't directly encroach on either A346/773ER or A380 territory.

User currently offlineAntares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 39
Reply 2, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 4631 times:

Pure conjecture on my part.

There will be three families. A 737 and larger capacity RJ replacement spanning 90-190 seats, exploiting and refining the 787 advances.

The 777s, maybe with a revised wing like the A350 if hints from Toulouse about a 'new' shape have substance.

And the 787s.

The Phantom works will grapple, one hopes successfully, with a further issue, a jet that will use a new fuel now that oil production has probably peaked, and the fossil fuel emissions issues becomes so serious even the thickest will realise something has to be done.

The replacement 737/717/CRJ-900 program will be the next all new project.

But the evolution of the 777 beyond what we have seen so far will be more or less concurrent with and maybve a little ahead of the above.

What will Airbus do in the same time frame, or perhaps a little later than Boeing?

Abandon the 340/330 architecture and turn the A350 into something competitive in terms of amenity with the 787s, perhaps with a different approach to composite technology, especially any problem of integrating reinforced carbon fibre with titanium castings to claw back the weight penalties this may, stress may, be causing Boeing at this stage.

Exploit the A380 plaform to dominate very large transports/freighters, and, build a 'green' replacement to the A320 family.

Finally I'll predict that the funding arrangements for both manufacturers will not follow those of today on either side of the Atlantic but reflect the economic reconstruction spending of the US and Europe following the collapse of capital markets in the near future in the worst fiscal upset since 1929.

Antares


User currently offlineStarlionblue From Greenland, joined Feb 2004, 17186 posts, RR: 66
Reply 3, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 4549 times:

Finally I'll predict that the funding arrangements for both manufacturers will not follow those of today on either side of the Atlantic but reflect the economic reconstruction spending of the US and Europe following the collapse of capital markets in the near future in the worst fiscal upset since 1929.

What makes you think the capital markets will collapse? The economy is hardly overheated like in 1929.



"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots."
User currently onlineFlySSC From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 7428 posts, RR: 57
Reply 4, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 4527 times:

well, until now, Boeing's next project is... the 787 ! as no airframe has been built yet !  Silly

User currently offlineBG777300ER From Bulgaria, joined Mar 2005, 269 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 4492 times:

In my opinion, what's best for Boeing is to try to foucs on their 747 Adv after finishing up their 787 project. I say this because right now, they have nothing that will compete with the A380 in a couple of years. But then again, this is just my opinion.


Koi mi sra v gashtite?
User currently offlineAirgeek12 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 4481 times:

Maybe it will be another single-isle aircraft to replace the 737s. Not sure how well it would go over, though.

User currently offlineCo7772wuh From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 4466 times:

Quoting FlySSC (reply 4):
In my opinion, what's best for Boeing is to try to foucs on their 747 Adv after finishing up their 787 project. I say this because right now, they have nothing that will compete with the A380 in a couple of years. But then again, this is just my opinion.


What are the chances of Boeing building a composite super jumbo within the next 10 years to compete directly with the a380 ?

I am not an aviation guru and what knowledge I know is from this web site . However , I now feel Boeing has taken a more aggressive approach in competing with airbus . And believe boeing learned from there complacency in the past .


User currently offlineBG777300ER From Bulgaria, joined Mar 2005, 269 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 4437 times:

Quoting Co7772wuh (reply 7):
What are the chances of Boeing building a composite super jumbo within the next 10 years to compete directly with the a380 ?


I don't know if they'll have a competitor within 10 years, maybe 15 or so. I think that right now they are putting all of their efforts on the dreamliner because i think that will bring them a lot of money (it has the potential to replace two current lines, 757 and 767).



Koi mi sra v gashtite?
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 9, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 4417 times:

If the B747Adv is produced, then the next new Boeing will be an all-composite single-aisle replacement for the B737NG, followed by a large dual-aisle twin to replace the B777-300 and B747. If the B747Adv is not produced, then there is a chance that the replacement for the B777-300 and B747 might precede the replacement for the B737NG. This is speculation, of course.

I expect that by 2020, Boeing will have three products:
B737NG replacement: 110-190 seats
B787: 200-320 seats
B777-300 and B747 replacement: 350-500 seats

Regarding Reply #2, the B777 just got a new wing that started flying last year. There is no chance Boeing will develop a third generation wing for the B777. The new wing will see the B777 through to the end of production.


User currently offlineBG777300ER From Bulgaria, joined Mar 2005, 269 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 4378 times:

Quoting Zvezda (reply 9):

I expect that by 2020, Boeing will have three products:


As much as I agree with this statement, I hard it kind of hard to believe that they will only have 3 kinds of airplanes compared to their 7 that are flying right now.



Koi mi sra v gashtite?
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 11, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 4347 times:

In 2010, Boeing might be producing only the B737NG, B787, and B777. At most, they will be producing the B737NG, B787, B777, and B747Adv.

User currently offlineSv11 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 162 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 4295 times:

I agree with Zvezda that Boeing may attempt a single replacement (twin?) for the 777-300 and 747. would that require a 150,000 pound thrust engine? But I think the 737NG replacement will start at 130 seats. I don't think there will be a 737-600 replacement as the plane is not popular.

sv11


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 13, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 4272 times:

I think a 130,000 to 140,000 pound thrust engine would suffice for a replacement for the B777-300 and B747. It's not clear that the GE90 can be certified to such thrusts. Last I heard it had been tested to about 127,000 pounds.

The B737NG replacement might well start at 130 seats. However, the switch to an all-composite fuselage and bleedless systems might make a 110 seat version sufficiently competitive.


User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 37
Reply 14, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 4255 times:

A composite airframe for a 737NG successor may make a 737-6 capacity aircraft more economical.


ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineBG777300ER From Bulgaria, joined Mar 2005, 269 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 4254 times:

Is it possible that Boeing built an airplane with 4 of the engines that are used on the 777-300ER (115,300lb General Electric GE90-115B). Is there a wing that can hold the weight of two of those engines?


Koi mi sra v gashtite?
User currently offlineDeltaWings From Switzerland, joined Aug 2004, 1294 posts, RR: 17
Reply 16, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 4248 times:

I don't think there will be a 737-600 replacement as the plane is not popular.


The 736 wasn't popular, because it was to heavy for its class. The 737 replacement will be out of composits, which would make it alot lighter and maybe allright to make a lighter 736 relplacement.

As for the future of the 777. It could be that they mostlikely will just improve it, like a 777NG.


~DeltaWings



Homer: Marge, it takes two to lie. One to lie and one to listen.
User currently offlineB2707SST From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 1371 posts, RR: 59
Reply 17, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 4233 times:

After the 787 is complete, I would expect (a) the 747ADV, if it is launched in the next few months; (b) a 737 successor with EIS around 2015; and (c) a jumbo replacement for the 777 and 747.

However, Boeing is also looking at replacing significant portions of the 777's structure with composites. If this is the case, we might see a 777NG in the next 10 years, which would complicate the long-term plan for a 777/747 successor.


Quoting Co7772wuh (reply 7):
What are the chances of Boeing building a composite super jumbo within the next 10 years to compete directly with the a380 ?


Almost none. Boeing's long-term market outlook is that the 500+ seat market is too small to justify the enormous cost of developing a superjumbo, especially with the A380 already occupying that niche. Boeing's long-term 777/747 replacement will likely cover the 350-500 seat range, but I wouldn't expect it to go much higher unless the A380 is a runaway success.

Boeing and McDonnell Douglas have also researched a much larger (600-800 seat) blended-wing body superjumbo, but again, Boeing believes the market is not big enough right now to make it feasible. There are also significant engineering and ergonomic (for lack of a better word) problems with BWBs.


Quoting Co7772wuh (reply 7):
I am not an aviation guru and what knowledge I know is from this web site . However , I now feel Boeing has taken a more aggressive approach in competing with airbus . And believe boeing learned from there complacency in the past .


I think you're right. Many of us thought that when "stingy Stonecipher" became CEO last year, it could be the end of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. It looks like we were wrong: there hasn't been this much optimism and energy at BCAG for a long time. The 787 has gotten a firm green light, the 747ADV is a serious possibility, and planning has begun for a 737 successor. Ditching their old sales team has also done wonders, given their orders streak in late 2004 and so far this year. Kudos to Stonecipher for the great job he's done so far -- just keep it up!

--B2707SST



Keynes is dead and we are living in his long run.
User currently offlineAntares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 39
Reply 18, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 4208 times:

Starlionblue asked in reply 3 what made me think the capital markets will crash so soon, and said the economy is nowhere near as overheated as 1929.

The compelling evidence for a serious and painful correction of the chronic US deficit situation would prove too far off topic for this forum in my view, and requires a lot of serious presentation of arguments.

However there is an aviation element, and it should underpin our assessments of where Boeing is going to find its best opportunities.

And that is that all of the arguments of the day about how Airbus and Boeing and Bombardier etc are funded will almost instantly cease to have any relevance.

Many of the major customers of the airframe makers will also vanish, but be replaced by brand new airlines unencumbered by the inefficiencies (and management errors) of the past.

The need for air travel will take a sharp, temporary hit, at least as serious as that of the dot.com bust+9/11.

This collapse will in my view destroy personal wealth on a very wide ranging scale, especially that which is dependant on retirement funds. That will generate undeniable political pressure for significant government intervention in terms of policy settings and sources of capital for the reconstruction and retention of economic activity.

Assuming the US doesn't cede civil aerospace to non-US economic entities, Boeing will become part of that reconstruction.

We already know what the answer will be in Europe.


User currently offlineLehpron From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 7028 posts, RR: 21
Reply 19, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 4124 times:

Boeing is only interested in near-term projects, i.e your estimate of 10-15 years for a service date. They would have to start R&D within 5 years to get it into its market. I know this because I talked to a Boeing recruit representative at a career expo at my college last week. I was not suprised by our conversation, my impression was that they appeared pesimistic about the future, relative to me. Granted their bias was the subject matter I asked about, but then they proceded to make assumptions about what I was asking as opposed to actually asking me. But they did suggest I send a resume to their Phantom Work division in Phoenix.

Boeing near-term IMO, a 737 type profile and more work on the 787. They are not going to further their 747Adv. If anything is to appear long-term, it will find life in Phantom Works first.

Quoting B2707SST (reply 17):
Boeing and McDonnell Douglas have also researched a much larger (600-800 seat) blended-wing body superjumbo...


A BWB would not have to be that big, it is just that if the need existed for that capacity that profile is the way to go. A BWB concept can be scaled down to a 757's size and still have 777 capacity. Agreed, engineering and 'ergonomic' issues still apply.  Smile



The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
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