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A380 Break-even: 300+  
User currently offlineMham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3559 posts, RR: 3
Posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 10527 times:

Airbus parent EADS hits 04 targets, ups 05 outlook

James Regan (Reuters)

Munich, March 9, 2005|16:14 IST

.........This year, Airbus is on course for the first flight of its mammoth A380 double-decker, which is set for deliveries in 2006, though current EADS co-CEO Philippe Camus told France's Radio Classique on Wednesday that continued dollar weakness would make it harder to break even on the programme.

"When we launched the A380 programme, the break-even was at 250 planes. With a dollar at 1.30 euros, we are now above 300 planes," he said.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1272524,0002.htm

Had another good article at AFX, can't find it now.

52 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 10358 times:

Not to worry, the subsidies require they don't have to pay anything back for some time. It's not like it's investors money after all.  duck 


One Nation Under God
User currently offlinePyroGX41487 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 280 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 10314 times:

Oy. Why does everyone expect them to break even so soon? -__-;

User currently offlineKhenleyDIA From Sweden, joined Feb 2005, 425 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 10245 times:

I figure that once the A380 gets some flights under its belt and Airbus can confirm the figures they have been advertising, like range and fuel use, then we will likely see some completely new orders or companies calling in for their options.

I know it is a completely different type of plane, but does anyone know the break even point for Boeing and the 787?

KhenleyDIA



Why sit at home and do nothing when you can travel the world.
User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 10241 times:

Quoting Mham001 (Thread starter):
"When we launched the A380 programme, the break-even was at 250 planes. With a dollar at 1.30 euros, we are now above 300 planes," he said.


I said this a few months ago. About time they come clean.

I know it is a completely different type of plane, but does anyone know the break even point for Boeing and the 787?

I believe the target was 325-350 birds.

[Edited 2005-03-09 18:28:28]

[Edited 2005-03-09 18:28:46]

User currently offlineLehpron From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 7028 posts, RR: 21
Reply 5, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 9962 times:

Quoting Mham001 (Thread starter):
"When we launched the A380 programme, the break-even was at 250 planes. With a dollar at 1.30 euros, we are now above 300 planes," he said.


Ohh dear, it's going up. That is it, I'm gonna have to throw on some Slayer/Slipknot before I go to class to make me feel better, this news didn't help.  Sad



The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
User currently offlineN312RC From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 2682 posts, RR: 16
Reply 6, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 9938 times:

Make you feel better?

Its not like somebody died for crying out loud...

Whew.. talk about wayyyyyy to into this stuff.



Fly Delta's Big Jets!
User currently offlinePetazulu From United States of America, joined Jan 2003, 701 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 9885 times:

Um, Concorde anyone?
Similar to the Concorde program in the 70's with gas prices rising...

A very large bird that may be slightly ahead of its time. It seems to me that the number of airports is rising, point to point is increasing, and competition and open skies are increasing. the A380 is quite a huge gamble unless you are going in and out of a very small handful of airports with little room for growth and poor alternatives.

I personally hope the A380 will be successful- but it seems to be running into some issues...


User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 8, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 9807 times:

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 1):
Not to worry, the subsidies require they don't have to pay anything back for some time. It's not like it's investors money after all.


Yeah its not like you need facts. The *8b the other investors kicked in might need to be paid back.

How's that degree in aviation technology from Northwestern working out for you?

N


User currently offlineKL808 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1584 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 9792 times:

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 8):
How's that degree in aviation technology from Northwestern working out for you?


ROFL. hahahahahaha

EDIT: Seriously though, people here got to relax about this. The aircraft hasn't flown yet. You cant compare the A380 to the Concorde, they are apples and oranges. IMHO the A380 will do just fine, give it 20 years and ill bet that it WILL break even.

Drew

[Edited 2005-03-09 20:03:34]


AMS-LAX-MNL
User currently offlineBennett123 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2004, 7433 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 9769 times:

I think that some folk are forgetting that the bird has not flown yet.

How many B747 were sold prior to first flight.


User currently offlinePetazulu From United States of America, joined Jan 2003, 701 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 9671 times:

I don't think that everything said about the A380 should be seen in an A vs. B light and automatically ignite a flame war. I am an A380 fan. I really hope it does well and am not a promoter of any aircraft maker at all. All of you out here blindly supporting a company like you would a baseball team need to get out more.

I just have my own reservations about the project. I think they will be overcome.


User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 9564 times:

Why does anyone expect them to even break even?

As long as Airbus sells thousands of AC of the A320 family, they can keep all their other big projects viable.


User currently offlineMham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3559 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 9466 times:

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 12):
As long as Airbus sells thousands of AC of the A320 family, they can keep all their other big projects viable.


You mean the soon-to-be out of date A320 family? The question will be do they have the money to support a (possibly) money-losing development while developing a new family to match Boeings' new composite families? Or will they have realized enough knowledge in weight-saving gains for use in new planes to make it worthwhile? Could be.

Much will depend on what kind of discounts they need to give to sell the A380. Their attempts to build the defense side could help a lot. Either way, they had a good year in 04 and will have good profits this year. We won't really know how the strategies trend until about '08 profit reports.


User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2824 posts, RR: 42
Reply 14, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 9365 times:

Quoting PyroGX41487 (Reply 2):
Oy. Why does everyone expect them to break even so soon? -__-;


Because the B747 (of which the EU proudly proclaims this plane makes obsolete) broke even before the first flight. In fact, Boeing had three times as many orders and made twice as much as it cost to develop before the first plane took off.

Quoting KL808 (Reply 9):
Seriously though, people here got to relax about this. The aircraft hasn't flown yet. You cant compare the A380 to the Concorde, they are apples and oranges. IMHO the A380 will do just fine, give it 20 years and ill bet that it WILL break even.


That's not the point. I have no doubt that the A380 will eventually break even. I do have a doubt that it will generate anywhere near the kind of revenue they tell their investors (including yours truly thanks to some overseas mutual funds) it will make.


User currently offlineKL808 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1584 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 9179 times:

AirFrnt


Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
I do have a doubt that it will generate anywhere near the kind of revenue they tell their investors (including yours truly thanks to some overseas mutual funds) it will make.


Who cares where the revenue comes from as long as the whole company makes a revenue your shares will go up. For Example If financial news says Airbus EADS made a profit of let say 20 million USD do they tell you what part of the division is not making a profit? They might, but as a whole the stock will go up if they met or exceded expectation. In Airbus case, currently there is no DOUBT that the A320 family is hauling in a lot of money for Airbus, and has widely been discussed here that it has repaid its loan plus royalties, now do investors care if the A318 hasn't gotten much orders? Of course not they know that as a whole its doing great and they are making money on it (ie EADS have a profit).

Same thing with Boeing, we ALL know that most of its profits come from outside the commercial aviation business. With the closure of the B757 where investors worried? With the Airforce scandal where the investors worried? NO because the stock is up from 40 to nearly 60 dollars from prices a year ago.

Therefore certain products don't really affect the business as a whole in Airbus and Boeing's case.

The A380 WILL BREAK EVEN not now but in the next couple of years. Will investors reap the benefits of its success? NOBODY KNOWS. CAN YOU FORETELL THE FUTURE?

Drew



AMS-LAX-MNL
User currently offlineScorpio From Belgium, joined Oct 2001, 5014 posts, RR: 44
Reply 16, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 9149 times:

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 13):
You mean the soon-to-be out of date A320 family?


Please enlighten us as to what exactly will make the A320 out of date 'soon'?


User currently offlineCOSPN From Northern Mariana Islands, joined Oct 2001, 1605 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 9063 times:

Such a waste of Euro Money They should use the money to Open up Airports Like LHR that Turn Airlines away...CO US NW...and no US Taxpayer money should ever be spent for A380 Upgrades untill Access is Allowed for those Airlines wishing to serv Europe...But at least they are Breaking new ground...like the Space program not everything pays off ...another Spruce Goose ahaed of its Time..

What Routes can use it anyway besides LHR-DEL ??? as suggested bt Gordon Bethune ???

Great freighter  Smile FedEx will put it to good use...


User currently offlineRuscoe From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1541 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 9004 times:

I believe the 300+ figure is for Airbus to breakeven, after that they start repaying Govt loans.
Typical breakeven for a project like this would be more like 600. (20 million profit per craft x 600 = 12 billion)

Ruscoe


User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 8881 times:



Quoting Scorpio (Reply 16):
Please enlighten us as to what exactly will make the A320 out of date 'soon'?

The 737 replacement, but I wouldn't call it soon.


User currently offlineMham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3559 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 8826 times:



Quoting Scorpio (Reply 16):
Please enlighten us as to what exactly will make the A320 out of date 'soon'?

"soon" relative to the industry is 5-7 years. Its no secret that Boeing is in the midst of large scale improvements in the way planes are developed and built. They hope to cut the time of conception-to-flying down to 36 months, if not 18 months. It will revolutionize the industry. This should come online about the time Boeing is ready to replace the 737 which they have indicated is their next move. I believe that once the 787 is flying and the kinks worked out of the process, we are going to see rapid movement towards efficient, fuel conscious green planes that airlines cannot ignore. Once Boeing announces solid plans for a 737 using 787 technology, the 320 family will be immediatly obsolete. There goes the cash cow. Remanins to be seen what Airbus will or can do in response. I think a lot is hinging on proving the A380 a success. IMO.


User currently offlineClickhappy From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 9603 posts, RR: 69
Reply 21, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 8783 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Its no secret that Boeing is in the midst of large scale improvements in the way planes are developed and built.

DONT DRINK THE KOOL AID!

Oops. Too Late  Sad


User currently offlineGlideslope From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1603 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 8724 times:

The Break Even will be 325 aircraft by the time all the design changes are finished. Airbus was WAY too aggressive on the weight savings program. The price will be steep, let alone if the aircraft is even close to performance specs. Which seems unlikely given the current trend.


To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
User currently offlineMham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3559 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 8468 times:



Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 21):
DONT DRINK THE KOOL AID!

Oops. Too Late Sad

Do you work there or have some solid information that what I hear from Boeing employees working on the project is not true? If so I'd really like to hear it. Always good to know who's tellin the truth!


User currently offlineRedflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4312 posts, RR: 28
Reply 24, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 8154 times:

Boeing was running around a few years ago claiming that Airbus would have to spit out 450 380s to break even. Given that they have considerable insight into the industry and did some research into the matter before deciding not to jump into that market segment, I will go with their estimate.

Just like at one time not too long ago (c. 2000) Forgeard was claiming that development costs for the 380 would be around $8 billion and now they are up over $12 billion, my guess is that the break even number will also experience a gradual and steady creep upwards to a much higher number.

Anyone want to place bets?



I'm not a racist...I hate Biden, too.
25 Clickhappy : Mham001 - I have sources and info that would give you wet dreams. On a personal note, I live in Renton, where the 737 is built, and of course I root f
26 B752fanatic : With the weaker dollar, and high oil prices, nearing 60's, I found impossible to believe that this a/c will succeed. I really love Aviation, and the A
27 Ken777 : I think that first you need to look at the US$ since "W" has been in office. Like it of not the dollar is way down and old W has 4 more years to get i
28 Gigneil : 4 engines is irrelevant, despite what you may have read here on this site. N
29 Sllevin : Historically, every aircraft program has ended moving its 'break even' point as it has gone forward. For Airbus to constrain that growth to just 20% o
30 Post contains images QFA001 : IMHO, you set the bar way too high. Let me explain my point... The $20m per aircraft is 10% is not unthinkable, especially for a widebody airplane (F
31 Post contains images Thrust : How long did it take for the 747 to break even? I imagine it broke even by the oil crisis of 1974...just wondering to see how initial estimates for th
32 Bill142 : The technology for such an aircraft with twin engines dosn't exist yet. It was either a tri jet or a quad. Do you think the 4 engine config was choos
33 Post contains links DeskPilot : What ? From what I've read, the 747 almost bankrupted Boeing during it's development due to delays in getting the engines working. Boeing was holding
34 Leelaw : When did managerial (cost) accountants adopted cost-volume-profit (breakeven) analysis as a meaningful method of evaluating the financial success of a
35 Osteogenesis : As long as those kind of Engines (for powering an A380 with two engines) are not available it is in fact irrelevant. Don't forget that the fact that
36 Jet-lagged : Breakeven at 300 units. That excludes the money their Sugar Daddies have put in? Still, I wish I could work in a company like that.
37 Post contains images Udo : The Concorde was a brutal fuel guzzler, while the A380 will be one of the most efficient aircraft of its time, expected to offer 20% lower operating
38 Leelaw : A380 Estimated Delivery Schedule (exclusive of China Southern Order): 2006- 11 2007- 26 2008- 35 2009- 36 2010- 12 2011- 27 2012- 02 Total- 149 Produ
39 Udo : That's really new to me, I thought they wouldn't go up to 48-50 units per year from mid 2007 already. Has Airbus made that official? Regards Udo
40 HEGAN : Marvelous Udo!!!!!!!! Wasn't Airbus the one who started working with composites? If so, they would not be so far from Boeing. And with the engine part
41 ExFATboy : I'm not entirely clear on why the drop in the dollar would make the break-even go up so significantly - the only US orders so far are UPS, FedEx, and
42 Leelaw : IIRC, the source of these specific estimates of potential production rate and delivery schedule is an analyst at J.P. Morgan, not Airbus.
43 Post contains images Lehpron : Funny. Perhaps I went overboard, or perhaps I just replied to the recent Concorde thread before this...(hint hint) It is not Airbus' problem if the v
44 Gigneil : Clearly, this is where the disagreement lies. 4 engines does not inherently imply increased fuel use or maintenance cost, and that's where the myth i
45 Astuteman : Nothing to do with A380 break-even, but isn't the single governing factor of installed thrust on an airliner the ability to maintain climb-out on take
46 Mham001 : Interesting. So when a Boeing engineer tells me (without prompting) that he is working on a project that will result in what I stated, he's lying? I
47 Post contains images QFA001 : Sure. A 4-engine planform is simpler than a 3-engine planform. That wasn't a point that I was concerned about. The point is that the number of engine
48 Boeing7E7 : Because EADS parts financing is dollar based. Meaning, as the Euro goes up against the dollar the cost of production goes up. Right now, it's actuall
49 Post contains images Udo : I'd like to see that design... Tell that to the airlines. Some CEOs seem to think a bit different about that issue. "Hub bypass" sounds good in theor
50 Boeing7E7 : Yeah, but they can't fill up what they have now, so they better find a more economic aircraft with the same capacity.
51 Post contains images QFA001 : She wouldn't have been pretty, that's for sure! Some being an imperative word. There are also some airlines that could use the A380 for one or two ro
52 Post contains images Udo : Who? Air France, Emirates, Korean, Lufthansa, Qantas, SIA, Thai, Virgin? I don't think so! Regards Udo
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