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Something Has To Happen Fast!  
User currently offlineSWALUVFA From United States of America, joined May 2002, 277 posts, RR: 6
Posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 10087 times:

It has been over 5 years that this US airline industry has seen any real profits. My question is: when is it EVER going to end? Something HAS to drastically change in this industry that we all love so much in order for it to continue. Lets see the current state of the legacy carriers:

*Delta and their 5 billion 2004 loss

*NWA mechanics saying the airplanes are going to be unsafe

*A319s disappearing from twice chapter 11 USAirways

*UA and the neverending bankruptcy, and neverending losses

*CO and their life or death threat for the employees to make

*AA and the food, pillows, planes, and cash disappearing

I personally think there is going to be NO CHOICE but for mergers, failures, acquisitions, and shutdowns to happen. These airlines think that parking planes, cutting costs, employee pay reductions are going to save them but they are wrong!! It has not saved ANYONE yet.

*A USAirways and Independence shutdown would free up the east coast and Caribbean so that AA could keep their healthy hold on the Caribbean and airlines like Delta, AirTran, and jetBlue could prosper on the east coast.

*A United shutdown would allow Northwest to hopefully gain some additional profit from picking up Asia routes and allow AA, CO to gain some Asia profit as well. Also Continental and Delta could gain UA's Heathrow and small European presence. United's domestic capacity could EASILY be absorbed into the healthier carriers.

*Airlines like ATA, Frontier, America West, Independence, and Midwest need to go.... don't get me wrong, they are all GREAT little airlines indeed, but they are NOT making money and just creating over capacity in the industry.

This is how my little prediction would look in the future:

Legacy Carriers- American, Continental, Northwest, Delta
Others- Southwest, jetBlue, Alaska, AirTran
And of course the regionals flying for AA, CO, NW, DL

Will this create a lack of competition? Maybe. But that is what is needed for these airlines to pull any sort of profit. There will always be the LLCs to offer the low fares.

We all share the same love for the airline industry and I don't wish ANY airline these woes or any airline employee out of a job. I love this industry and think that it is SOO sad what has happened. But something big like this HAS to happen in my opinion.

Any thoughts!?!?!.........

99 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineNWAFA From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1893 posts, RR: 15
Reply 1, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 10020 times:

You hit it right on the head SWA! If there are two carriers, then THAT is competition. You don't need 10 airlines to have competition....a Competition is more than one.

UA needs to crap or get off the pot-quit hiding behind B.K. to "wait and see" -When you don't cut the Umbilical Cord, you start bleeding - hello your there time to cut the cord.

US needs to finally take a good breath in and let the air goes where it will - could be stay alive or finally take its last breath.

Indy Air needs to wake up and finally see they can not make it.

ATA needs to realize that WN is a very smart company and they will NOT save them - they just want the gates and slots at MDW.

AmericaWest - needs to hook up with someone. They have a great thing in PHX and would be a great match for many company's.

NW, CO and DL need to figure out once and for all who is going to merge with who and stop the "i want to be on top, no I want to be on top", and let the 3rd on go and hook up with someone else. The three of them keep doing the pissing contest to see who can go further to decide who will merge with who

American- They are great with the South America stuff, and they are doing a great job concentrating on that.

Southwest is going to be Southwest - they know who and what they are and execute that every day very well.

AirTran - Is trying to figure things out - kinda like we we as humans put one toe in the water to see if its too hot or cold

With a such a pro corporation White house and administration, I think mergers would be allowed so much quicker than before. They need to start happen before we are all dead.



THANK YOU FOR FLYING NORTHWEST AIRLINES, WE TRULY APPRECIATE YOUR BUSINESS!
User currently offlineLono From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 1335 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 9983 times:

This has been going for years.... since deregulation.... carriers come and go... don't get too excited about the Legacy carriers going away.... they will be around for a long time... sure one or two may go away... but look how long it takes for one to go away.... UA/CO/US/DL/AA have had issues forever... they are slow to respond... but when they do it is bad for everyone.... It will get interesting when AA starts rethinking it's business plan... they could make a couple of LCC's go away quickly if they wanted...

So nothing is going to happen fast.... just watch and learn...



Wally Bird Ruled the Skys!
User currently offlineAvek00 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4369 posts, RR: 19
Reply 3, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 9918 times:

Problem is, no one has the $2B or so lying around necessary to merge with or acquire anyone...


Live life to the fullest.
User currently offlineBlatantEcho From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 9851 times:

"Problem is, no one has the $2B or so lying around necessary to merge with or acquire anyone..."

and the airlines that do, are smart enough to want nothing to do with merging or acquiring anyone.

But once the airlines get fat again, the cycle will start anew, huge contracts, new fleets they can't pay for, etc.

If you Chap 7. UA, US, AA, & Delta, everyone would be better off after a year or so, as long as they players filling those voids didn't get to big headed. It would be an interesting year, but a fresh start for a large chunk of the industry would be a VERY good thing



They're not handing trophies out today
User currently offlineSonOfACaptain From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1747 posts, RR: 6
Reply 5, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 9817 times:

Quoting SWALUVFA (Thread starter):
*A USAirways and Independence shutdown would free up the east coast and Caribbean so that AA could keep their healthy hold on the Caribbean and airlines like Delta, AirTran, and jetBlue could prosper on the east coast.

You don't need airlines going out of business, what you need is mergers. People are flying. Seats are being sold. The problem is that fares are too low, because of too many competing airlines. I personally think that within the next few years, the industry will go through a major shakedown. I wouldn't be surprised if the legacy carriers number 3 or 4 due to mergers between themsleves. I also think that US will merge with either UA or HP, with UA more likely.

-SOAC



Non Illegitimi Carborundum
User currently offlineBlatantEcho From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 9785 times:

How does merging make an airline suddenly profitable?
Is AA profitable after the TWA merger? Heck no.

You're talking about reducing competition by mergers, when the only want to do it is through Chap 7.

This is America, after all. Competition is the root of our economic system, only the strong (should) survive. Let a few liquidate, and let smarter companies pick up the pieces. That's the way to low fares and a healthy industry.



They're not handing trophies out today
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25119 posts, RR: 85
Reply 7, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 9744 times:
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Just think -

- if there were no such thing as Chapter 11, a lot of this would have happened already.

- if the ATSB had not been set up, a lot of this would have happened already.

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 8, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 9717 times:

No airline in its right mind would want to acquire the huge liabilities of their most unhealthy competitors in a merger or acquisition and put themselves into a bigger hole. It's better if some airlines go bankrupt, so the remaining airlines can pickup profitable bits and pieces without all the crap.


ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineSonOfACaptain From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1747 posts, RR: 6
Reply 9, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 9708 times:

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 6):
How does merging make an airline suddenly profitable?

Just merging with an airline alone won't make the airlines profitable, but it will provide the stepping stones to do so. With less competition, an airline is allowed to raise fares to more profitable levels.

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 6):
Is AA profitable after the TWA merger? Heck no.

AA and TWA is not a good example. The merger was in a totally different situation. It also only took a small airline out of business. It didn't really affect the industry.

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 6):
You're talking about reducing competition by mergers, when the only want to do it is through Chap 7.

No not really. Merges reduce competion, while at the same time not lowering the amount of seats available. (Which would be a bad thing because people are indeed flying.) Chap. 7 reduces competion, however, it also reduces capacity in the industry.

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 6):
This is America, after all. Competition is the root of our economic system, only the strong (should) survive. Let a few liquidate, and let smarter companies pick up the pieces. That's the way to low fares and a healthy industry.

I agree with this, however, why go through such a harsh process when merging will do the same thing.

-SOAC



Non Illegitimi Carborundum
User currently offline744 From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 448 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 9689 times:

First of all CHANGE all of the US CARRIER'S stupid CUSTOMER SERVICE which includes ground, reservations, inflight, and ticketing centers. They are so RUDE, out hearted. See how Asian carriers like SQ,CX,BA,KL, etc do incomparision to DL,HP,FL,AA,UA etc especially inflight? What's wrong with all the American carriers?????

User currently offlineDeltaWings From Switzerland, joined Aug 2004, 1294 posts, RR: 17
Reply 11, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 9679 times:

Well I dont want any airline to go. Personally I think it's great to have so many airlines. One day, when all this trouble in the industry will be over- and yes one day- then these airlines will be making money again. If it's possible they all should keep on going as long as possible. Let's say most of the airlines merge or go out of business. When the hard times are over, there will be so many airlines gone, although they could be making then if they stayed alive. Delta has been going for 75 years. It would be cruel if they just would have to suddenly leave. Other airlines are even older, so the same counts for them.


~DeltaWings



Homer: Marge, it takes two to lie. One to lie and one to listen.
User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 12, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 9667 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 7):
Just think -

- if there were no such thing as Chapter 11, a lot of this would have happened already.

True. Chapter 11 ought not be allowed when the overall state of particular industry is poor.

Quote:

- if the ATSB had not been set up, a lot of this would have happened already.

While that is true, I would argue that the government had significant liability when it failed to create a security system that would have prevented 9/11 from occurring. My view is that as a result it is only fair that the government do something for the airlines. However, they should have restricted it to grants and not include loan guarantees that increase debt load of the airlines and the government simultaneously.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineNWAFA From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1893 posts, RR: 15
Reply 13, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 9636 times:

744

To answer your questions regarding whats wrong with the US carriers - the US carriers DO NOT get government subsidies like the ones you listed do!



THANK YOU FOR FLYING NORTHWEST AIRLINES, WE TRULY APPRECIATE YOUR BUSINESS!
User currently offlineDoug_Or From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 3402 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 9621 times:

Quoting SonOfACaptain (Reply 9):
I agree with this, however, why go through such a harsh process when merging will do the same thing.

Merging won't do the same thing. Most US airline mergers have been more trouble then they were worth.

Quoting SonOfACaptain (Reply 9):
AA and TWA is not a good example. The merger was in a totally different situation. It also only took a small airline out of business. It didn't really affect the industry.

So what are you proposing? a small airline buying a big airline? If we have a bunch of mergers to reduce competition, but maintain the capacities of the merged airilnes, then to raise fares you will STILL need to cut capacity. You can't fill the same number of seats at a higher (more profitable) price.


The problem isn't having too many carriers on a route. The problem is having too many uncompetitive airlines. If someone's making money (like say, Southwest), then there apprently isn't too much competition. If an airline isn't making money, its not because of too much competition, its because it isn't competitive in that market. If there are not markets that airilne is competitive in, then that airline should go out of buisness.



When in doubt, one B pump off
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25119 posts, RR: 85
Reply 15, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 9604 times:
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SOAC:

Quoting SonOfACaptain (Reply 9):
why go through such a harsh process when merging will do the same thing.

Perhaps because the system has completely and utterly failed?

It is more than three years since 9/11, and passengers are flying in greater numbers than before that date, so that excuse is out the window.

It is more than three years since the ATSB - the Airline Transportation Stabilization Board - was set up.

Do you believe the airlines are more stable now than three years ago?

And what would a merger achieve? You can't dismiss AA and TWA just because that merger doesn't fit your theory.

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineGnomon From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 9561 times:

I absolutely agree that something must give.

And two weeks ago, I would've agreed with SWALUVFA's prediction that the legacies who fold would be UA and US.

But both US and UA are hanging on under Chapter 11 protection. I think at this point that both have the ability to successfully complete their supervised reorganizations at some point, if creditors and the courts are willing to wait.

What's more, DL's and CO's independent warnings last week give me reason to worry. CO is so highly leveraged that an attempt to reorganize under Chapter 11 might not be practical, as many here have noted. DL warned it already has tied up many of its assets in the out-of-court restructuring it completed last year, lessening the protections afforded by a Chapter 11 petition, and increasing the risk of a liquidation under Chapter 7 should DL become insolvent.

In my "doomsday" scenario, it's possible that, before all is said and done, the U.S. airline industry will have NW, AA, US, and UA -- in some consolidated form -- stamped all over it. Ironically, DL and CO -- previously considered the healthiest airlines -- would be history because of their bold attempts to restructure out of court. I hope I'm wrong, but this is one possibility of how things might play out.


User currently offlineDtw9 From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1156 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 9537 times:

[First of all CHANGE all of the US CARRIER'S stupid CUSTOMER SERVICE which includes ground, reservations, inflight, and ticketing centers. They are so RUDE, out hearted.What's wrong with all the American carriers?????} I'll tell you whats wrong, cheap ass customers that don't want to pay a fair price to be transported from point A to point B. They want cadillac service on a Yugo fare. So who has to pay for this, The employees of the Airlines,thats who. These people have seen their pay cut, their hours increased, their pensions scrapped,and their jobs hanging on by a shoestring,and all people are worried about is that they don't smile anymore.Gee I wonder why.They have to listen to cheap whinny ass people all day long who do nothing but complain,throwup on them because their drunk on their asses,treat them like crap because their pretzels are stale or because their told they have to check their bag because its to big for the overhead, and you wonder why their Rude. Well the flying public wanted taxicab mentality when it comes to airfares and they got it. Whens the last time you took a cab and were offered a pillow or pretzels,or how about that cocktail with your ptv sir during your drive from the airport to the hotel? I'm not saying its right to be rude, but I think the flying public needs to do alittle soul searching about their own attitudes and actions first, instead of just throwing stones

User currently offlineGnomon From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 9508 times:

Dtw9 --

I don't think you and NWAFA can fairly blame customers for the airlines' plight. Customers, like anyone else, are economically rational actors who seek the lowest price. If you want to blame anyone, point to the LCCs who gave them alternatives.

Bear in mind that, unless you live on a commune, or on unowned land in Montana where you build your house from trees and shoot your own food with free ammo, you're a customer, too. I'm sure you appreciate the attractiveness of being able to visit Grandma for $200 now instead of the $500 it would've cost before.

Whether or not customers will pay for added value over the LCCs remains to be seen. Delta seems half-heartedly to be pursuing that theory in various corporate statements over the last six months, the faux wood-paneled floors in the lavs, etc. But taking pillows off planes and charging for food are steps in the wrong direction if you want more people to buy your product.

You airline employees could do your parts to create more value in your product. Be nice to me and deliver professional and sophisticated service that exceeds what I'd get at an LCC, and I guarantee you that I'll pay more to fly your airline next time.

But having flown both DL and NW recently, I can't say either experience added any value over what I would've enjoyed with WN or FL. If I can save a few dollars and not miss any value, why wouldn't I? Why wouldn't you?


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25119 posts, RR: 85
Reply 19, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 9489 times:
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Dtw9:

Wow! Dump all the blame on the passengers? Gosh, I thought the passengers were the reason for an airline's existence.

Why not blame management? I mean, they've made some dumb ass decisions - US Airways little fiasco at FLL being not the least of them, but surely not the latest.

Or the UAL management investing in Avolar? Or giving in to the pilots during the Summer of Hell?

Or the UAL pilots, demanding an industry leading contract? Or kicking CEO Goodwin out just because he told a truth that no one wanted to hear?

Or how about Delta's management, believing they could survive with $20 billion dollars worth of debt - and another industry leading pilot contract?

There's blame enough to go around - but no - you want to stick it to the passengers, the bread and butter?

Wow.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineGnomon From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 9477 times:

Once again Mariner hits the nail on the head. Thanks.

User currently offlineDtw9 From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1156 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 9448 times:

Its not management thats dictating the fares, its the flying public. You think these airlines would be in the troubles they're in if people would just pay a fare that would support daily operations plus, you have to remember, they have pension and health care costs they need to pay? How about you tell me where you all work and I call your bosses and tell them to cut your pay,cancel your pensions and have them work you an extra 10 hours a month? anyone game? I didnt think so.

User currently offlineGnomon From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 9428 times:

Dtw9, if that's how you feel, why don't you just quit and find another job?

User currently offlineNWAFA From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1893 posts, RR: 15
Reply 23, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 9409 times:

Gnomon,

When I was a young 21 year old like your self I would have said the same uneducated answer as yours "why don't you just quit".

After spending 25 years in this business, why do I need to just quit? Why do I need to stop doing what I love and do it very well. Why am I, along with all the other hard working, dedicated and committed airline employees the ones that must pay to passengers fly? The cost of living is going up every day, yet airline employees must take a pay cut. We are not even keeping up with the cost of living.

May I suggest after you spend 25 years of your heart in this industry, you take a pay cut. Take away your pension that was promised to you. Take away more health care. Take away more time off. Make you work longer days and hours.

[Edited 2005-03-20 22:55:30]


THANK YOU FOR FLYING NORTHWEST AIRLINES, WE TRULY APPRECIATE YOUR BUSINESS!
User currently offlineStevenUhl777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (9 years 5 months 1 week 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 9390 times:

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 3):
Problem is, no one has the $2B or so lying around necessary to merge with or acquire anyone...

Gee...only $2B, huh? No debt to assume? What a deal/steal! If all it took were $2B like you suggest, several investor groups would have come forth already, and the industry would look VERY different.

I agree also that something "big" needs to happen to get the industry back on track. I used to think that US was going to disappear in short order. But, that was about this time last year, and here they are, still going. They also have a revenue sharing agreement with UA, which seems to help both them and UA. UA..well, I've said everything already on that subject. At least they had some $3-$4B in unemcumbered assets to negotiate DIP financing with, and that just might get them through this time, or perhaps to the next Ch. 11 filing several years from now, time will tell.

AA facing a cash crunch, along with Indy Air, Delta, and Continental. If the other thread about CO is true like I'm sure it is, then maybe we'll see them in Ch. 11? Ch. 7 maybe? Sounds like they have very few assets to negotiate with. DL and CO are on thin ice it seems.

My feeling is that UA and AA will be around, and there will be some sort of consolidation between NW/DL/CO. Indy Air is toast, and UA will benefit from that. Jetblue will continue for a few more years.

I don't know. Just my 2 cents, but I doubt it's even worth that much.

Quoting Gnomon (Reply 20):
Once again Mariner hits the nail on the head

Yeah, he has a tendency to do just that in all of his threads.  Wink


25 Dtw9 : Gnomon ,because when your five years from the end of your career, you don't walk away. Yes theres been managment mistakes through the years,but the ru
26 Arniepie : All this speculation as what is going or should happen to turn the tides! It will sort itself out one way or the other, in the market economy (capital
27 Gnomon : NWAFA, I believe you have misinterpreted my remarks to insinuate that I do not empathize with you. I do. However, no amount of "heart" I could "spend"
28 Isitsafenow : NWAFA...Dont make the statement the carriers DO NOT receive government subsidies. As a rule you are correct, however in certain small cites, carriers
29 Avek00 : "Gee...only $2B, huh? No debt to assume? What a deal/steal! If all it took were $2B like you suggest, several investor groups would have come forth al
30 A330Jamaica : I will say one thing only. Follow OIL!!! and you will know the fate of the airline industry both in the U.S and abroad. It must contract in the near f
31 Aa757first : jetBlue, Frontier, America West, Southwest and the other LCCs aren't going to fail for a long time. No matter how much bitter legacy employees pray, i
32 Leskova : The passengers aren't the problem - they just see what's available and select whatever they like most: for most, that'll be the lowest fare. But there
33 FA4B6 : It's called a union. I was doing a flight from JFK-DEN. We were turning to do the DEN-BOS redeye. Its part of a very productive [very senior] trip we
34 NWAFA : FA4B6, I would not call JFK-DEN a transcon. A transcon is COAST to COAST. At NWA we have red eye turns form the hub - MSP-LAX-MSP that leaves MSP at 8
35 Greasespot : umm mergers shut downs are one thing. How do you stop other new start-ups from filling the void....seems like there is an endless supply of people wil
36 Dtw9 : One point I'd like to make about LCC's, they haven't been around long enough to worry about paying out pensions to thousands of retired employees,If t
37 NWAFA : DTW9, Your right about the pay comes down but not our bills. I agree with part of your statement when you say: Treat me, as you want me, to treat you.
38 Mikey711MN : Just curious: do LCC's even have pensions ala their legacy counterparts?!? I honestly thought that part of holding the line on cost was to, obviously
39 Dtw9 : NWAFA , you are right. We as the flightcrew have to be nice to our customers regardless of how rude they are to us. Boy thats a tough statement to swa
40 Lehpron : I have an idea, let capitalism rule and allow legacy airlines to effing die out; that way the remaining human resources from company fallouts should b
41 Cactus739 : Southwest started flying in 1971. I'm not 100% familiar with their benefits, but I don't believe they have a pension set up... if they do, I'd say 34
42 Dtw9 : Cactus739,Southwest is the exception,and they too are going to start feeling the pain. You can't compare a 30 year old to a 70 year old
43 N867BX : It seems like there is an endless supply of people willing to fund these startups. As mentioned, LCC's don't have pensions. There has been a hell of
44 SonOfACaptain : These mergers would be different. Whereas in the past, airlines mergered to grow or gain market share, these mergers would be made for the well being
45 F9Animal : Most of the legacy carriers have alligned themselves to be profitable. US has done a complete 180. Sadly, with all the concessions that they got, the
46 Dtw9 : SonOfACaptain, sadly there won't be any mergers between the legacies strickly because of the pension mess at all of them. There is no way in Hell that
47 AADC10 : Southwest does not have a defined benefit pension. The have a defined contribution pension, I believe a 401(k) plan. Defined contribution is much che
48 PhilSquares : From my humble perspective I think the whole U.S. airline industry is bordering on failure for a number of reasons. 1) Massive over expansion. The cur
49 I15846375 : Just a thought, how much money is being saved through upper-management salary cuts? Seems that the employees that are lowest on the totem pole are alw
50 CTHEWORLD : Very insightful, and a twist that most, with their puerile understanding of business on this board miss. UA did the right thing by going in to CH. 11
51 Starlionblue : I15846375 (and there's an interesting username), you have a good moral point, but not a good economic point. While I agree that it is vulgar for uppe
52 PM : WHAT are you talking about?! "Asian carriers like BA and KL"??? And what are YOU talking about?! SQ, CX, BA and KL get government subsidies?! Where d
53 Mariner : SOAC: Not one of the legacy carriers yet has done anything "to fix the industry". At the risk of offending you, it would "fix the industry" if both Un
54 RDUCO : being mostly a post reg al wn did not start messed up from the gov. the big six are top heavy, and the only business that can continue to operate top
55 RDUCO : they wont. the legacy al act like scared animals running w/i a pack. do not stand out the risk is too great. you may be like wn (successful)
56 UA772IAD : I agree 100%, and with US too. I think if either carrier tried for BK now, than they wouldn't stand a chance at survival. DL is already in a slippery
57 Aloha717200 : I don't want any of the airlines flying to shutdown. But I think IAir is being written off way too quickly by the original poster. It's almost like So
58 Nosedive : Because during the high-times of the 1990s we had how many Pan-Am copy cats?? And then there was that other big airline. They had a hub in STL, but I
59 PM : Perhaps they will but I think you are avoiding the real question: whether that would be a good thing or not. Whoever we may or may not be "rooting" f
60 EnviroTO : As long as you can buy a ticket and get where you want to go then the system as a whole is working. We should care less about what brands will disappe
61 PlaneSmart : Mariner 'At the risk of offending you, it would "fix the industry" if both United and US Airways went Chapter 7. But it isn't going to happen. No one
62 Mariner : PlaneSmart: I agree with your basic premise: Although I think it will play out slightly differently from you. The finance industry is at least as test
63 Jonty : I know people are saying airlines need to go to make others profitable or merge, but all that will leave is an oligopoly with higher fares, in a free
64 Cornish : Simply too many carriers, low cost and legacy in the US market - fine during boom times pre 9/11, the cracks were hidden, but it only needed a downtur
65 WunalaYann : Dtw9, I have the utmost respect for legacy carriers and their employees. Nobody here seriously disputes the effort and work ethic shown by you, F/As,
66 B4real : As a side note, there is no such thing as a merger really anymore. Acquisition is the only real growth model that occurs today. There always needs to
67 Gnomon : With respect to the discussion of subsidized firms, I would add that my experience to date with transportation companies that receive subsidies is tha
68 Aa777jr : My instructor and good friend is a captain at AA and told me, jokingly, or not, that the airline industry follows patterns like the stock market. Seve
69 Wdleiser : Just wait till LCC's begin to get hit with high maitenence cost of their aircraft once they begin to age. Then they too will begin to raise prices
70 Luv2fly : Maybe you should inform Southwest of your observation!
71 Cornish : That's why Southwest got rid of their 737-200s recently, replaced by nice new 737 NGs. Spirit are replacing their MD80s with A320 family aircraft, et
72 Avek00 : You all are missing one very essential point - the MAIN reason why LCCs are faring well while legacies continue to suffer is that LCCs have the abilit
73 ExFATboy : Uh, no. DowCorning's stay in Ch 11 was so long because it took that long to sort out all of the issues around implant claims. (I thought it also had
74 Cornish : Exactly what I mentioned - too many carriers. what have you now over there? 9 or so carriers flying over 15 million passengers a year - of which six
75 Avek00 : "Even for such a huge market as the US, that is a huge number of carriers to try and accomodate within the market." Indeed. If the USA market had an o
76 ContnlEliteCMH : I'm game. I work for myself. I own my own company, and my business partner and I deal directly with our clients. So you may call me and tell me to cu
77 F9Animal : When everyone yells "Over capacity", they seem to forget a few things. Scenario; UA and US go chapter 7. It would be a huge relief to the current oper
78 Coronado : I am not sure that even if the legacies convert all their pension plans to 401's in a bankruptcy seeting will they be able to be competitive with an a
79 Spike : Is America's dream all a myth then? Time to come home lads.
80 7E72004 : Here is my prediction: US--will eventually liquidate (Especially if WN decides to invade CLT next) UA--will end up in chap. 7 liquidation (time to sto
81 Isitsafenow : Indy Air won't see Thanksgiving. Spirit and Frontier....interesting pairing and just might work UA and DL will start to sell things off for $$$ 'cause
82 ContnlEliteCMH : I totally disagree. Such a viewpoint ignores three very obvious factors which make DC plans beneficial in all circumstances:: (1) BENEFIT TODAY. DC p
83 EA CO AS : Any airline which has a DC will enjoy a competitive edge today, and on into the future. Agreed - and in a way, it's funny how this mirrors the Social
84 ContnlEliteCMH : The unnamed steel company employing my father made this change in the early 70's just after the tax legislation made DC's overwhelmingly advantageous
85 Post contains images Avek00 : "I think it is time to restrict growth perhaps" WTF!? Growth is the reason why LCCs are posting a profit, and is the means by which surviving legacies
86 Gnomon : Right on. It's telling that despite the dire straits at the majors, CO, DL, and NW in particular, they're still being aggressive about international
87 LTBEWR : To me the USA Congress needs to have hearings on the problems with the airlines business to consider changes in a wide variety of laws to try to bring
88 Petazulu : LTBEWR, You have a good point. There should be a look into all of this. I think one of the reasons no one is doing that is because there is no popular
89 Ken777 : I would not be surprised to see all legacy carriers pass through Ch 11 in order to clear out their most pressing problems, like pension plans. The hig
90 CTHEWORLD : Wrong, you are forgetting about numerous bonds that were floated with multiple municipalities and the certificate of trust game, several different in
91 Boeing7E7 : The problem is LCC's like Southwest sucking the ever living life out of the pax heavy markets with fares that the network carriers can't compete with.
92 ExFATboy : Oh, I'm not saying that UAL's Ch 11 is simple, I'm just saying that comparing it to Dow Corning's situation is not accurate. There is no underlying le
93 Bels13 : Good assesment if you work for Southwest and wonder why you haven't gotten a bigger chunk of the success. Southwest will never be the biggest because
94 Post contains images Mariner : Bels13: Dude, in most places, whatever you are smoking is illegal. (i) How is Southwest trying to force any airline out of business, and (a) why would
95 Cornish : Couldn't agree with you more Mariner. Suspect Bels13 must work for one of the legacies to be describing Southwest as a disease. Fact is that Southwest
96 F9Animal : I think it is time for UA to exit BK or pull the plug. US Airways is actually doing something to better their situation, so they have a plan to exit.
97 Gnomon : I agree with Mariner. And I would note that Southwest itself admitted, up until the current economic slum, that its target passengers were those who
98 Snn2003 : Who the hell died and made you king of the airlines? Welcome to the free economy! If I want to waste 3 million a day on a failing airline that created
99 ExFATboy : Perhaps, but should it be your right to waste 3 million a day while gaining an unfair advantage over some of your competitors because you're dragging
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