USAFHummer From United States of America, joined May 2000, 10685 posts, RR: 53 Reply 9, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 4735 times:
Ack...I gotta admit Im not a fan of that one...I think its because of the white background, its not something that would catch my eye right away at an airport, unlike many other F9 tails whose colors are blatantly distinctive from the rest of the fuselage...
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USAFHummer From United States of America, joined May 2000, 10685 posts, RR: 53 Reply 13, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 4644 times:
Quoting Mariner (Reply 12): Did you work out that if you hit "previous" (message) and "next" (message) there's a lot more?
Yep...a lot of the Yahoo! board stuff seems to be about stock prices and other stock information and that doesn't really interest me too much so I dont often go there, but the stuff from Potter was good to hear as an F9 frequent flyer...
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Lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 11923 posts, RR: 100 Reply 15, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 4542 times:
Quoting Mariner (Reply 10): Here is a summary of what he said, courtesy of "xlake" on the Yahoo board:
Mariner, thanks for the link. Several bits struck me:
1. The healthy Mexican market yields. I'm thinking F9 has found their niche.
2. The undertone that customers do not like the RJ's compared to "airbi" but that F9 will go for 70 seaters (shorter routes?).
3. The need to keep up yield (charging for the TV, etc.).
4. F9 is in a steady growth mode, but a metered growth mode.
5. Customer pushback was a concern that was on his mind. (Not yet here, but a condition to be feared if not dreaded.)
Quoting Mariner (Reply 10): I think that the airline world is a very different place when oil is $57 a barrel from what it was at $30 a barrel.
I agree. Last I heart there were just under 650 US airports with daily commercial service; I strongly believe that many of the smaller stations will be closed to cut costs. Obviously high yield stations will continue to operate. I'm predicting that high oil prices will trigger a shakeout starting this Fall.
As I've stated before, I'm bearish on the 50 seat RJ's. (Not that they'll disappear, just that a few hundred will be looking for a home; lonely aluminum souls looking out from the desert boneyards starting this Fall or Winter.) Due to their much better economics, I'm bullish on the larger RJ's and the E-jets.
Mariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 23926 posts, RR: 87 Reply 17, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 4526 times:
That's a whole lot of stuff.
Mexico - from Day 1, Mexico was terrific for Frontier, which is why United wanted a big slice of the pie.
However, Frontier serves most (not all, but most) of the big resorts, so what happens? Will they go to other resorts (Caribbean/Costa Rica/Belize) or to business destinations in Mexico? Or the smaller resorts in Mexico?
CEO Potter has hinted at both the Caribbean and "Central America" before, and he did it again in the GS presentation by talking about Mexico and "Latin America".
Mexico AND Latin America? Hmmm.
With LAX out of the way, what CEO Potter says appears to be true. They just bumped IND up to 3 x daily, and for the past three days and through Sunday, virtually every flight DEN/IND is "not available" (Frontier speak for sold out).
Similarly for MDW which is now up to 5 x daily and is seeing more service to DEN by ATA and, of course, United (Ted). But at the moment, the Frontier flights are full. Yields on that route? Dunno.
I think your reading of the RJ situation is probably accurate. The contract with Horizon allows for up to 20 CR7's. but Frontier seems to be in no hurry to expand from the present 9, even assuming more were available.
There is also some resistance to even the 70 seaters. When Frontier announced that DEN/OMA was going back to all mainline (from all express) the message boards were swamped with Omaha people cheering - and complaining about the CR7's.
For other airlines, I think the 50 seat RJ is a plane whose time has gone. Problem is, the majors ordered them in such numbers, and based entire business models on the use of them, so how do they alter that?
It's hard to imagine the majors can just ditch the fleets of RJ's and replace 'em with, say, E175's.
Yes, a definite Hmmm... But how far down can the A319's go? Certainly central America, but my first assumption would be no further south than Colombia. Still, many opportunities for F9.
Quoting Mariner (Reply 17): There is also some resistance to even the 70 seaters. When Frontier announced that DEN/OMA was going back to all mainline (from all express) the message boards were swamped with Omaha people cheering - and complaining about the CR7's.
Interesting... Maybe I should reduce my enthusiasm on the CRJ700/900? Personally, I'm already much more enthusiastic on the E-jets. (Note: do NOT expect F9 to be on the E-jet bandwagon for many years, if ever.)
Quoting Mariner (Reply 17): For other airlines, I think the 50 seat RJ is a plane whose time has gone. Problem is, the majors ordered them in such numbers, and based entire business models on the use of them, so how do they alter that?
There in a catch 22. As you noted, its a different world at $57/bbl vs. $30/bbl. I expect the "express" divisions to be sold/spun off and then the contracts to be cut, cut, cut! The market has to rationalize some how. (That's always painful...)
ps: I added the photo of N939FR to my background slide show.