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BA Looking At 787/A350 Before 747ADV/A380  
User currently offlineCornish From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 8187 posts, RR: 54
Posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 9322 times:

From this morning's ATW.....

BA in no hurry to find 747 successor
Friday April 15, 2005
In response to speculation that British Airways will be a launch customer for the 747ADV, CEO Rod Eddington told ATWOnline yesterday that "the most pressing aircraft acquisition project for BA is the 767 replacement." According to Eddington, BA currently is looking at both the A350 and 787. It was one of the airlines heavily involved in the evolution of the 7E7/787 from the Sonic Cruiser program, with Eddington arguing that efficiency was far better than speed.

BA's interest in the 787/A350 comes as speculation mounts that Northwest Airlines is about to order 18 Dreamliners (ATWOnline, April 13). Balance sheet issues still dominate the strategy at BA and Eddington said the airline's oldest 747-400 is only 15 years old. It currently operates 57 747-400s, according to the Airclaims CASE database.

"We have plenty of time to make a decision and the 777-300ER looks very attractive. We may never buy the A380 or 747ADV," he said. In the late 1990s, BA canceled a number of 747-400 orders and replaced them with 777-200ERs as it pursued more long-haul nonstops.

by Geoffrey Thomas


Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
55 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineScotron11 From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2004, 1178 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 9246 times:

Quoting Cornish (Thread starter):

"We have plenty of time to make a decision and the 777-300ER looks very attractive

Past statement by Mr Eddington have indicated they have coveted smaller rather than larger aircraft, as part of their Future Size & Shape program. Did they not at one time want to off-load some of their 744's?

While not saying they would definitely "not" buy the 747ADV or A380, maybe a sizeable order for T7's is a surer thing.


User currently offlineThaigold From Australia, joined Sep 2003, 315 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 9218 times:

How many 767's does BA currently operate? And when would a replacement start?

Would the 767's be replaced 1 for 1??

Thanks!



Dunbar Rovers forever
User currently offlineCornish From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 8187 posts, RR: 54
Reply 3, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 9211 times:

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 1):
While not saying they would definitely "not" buy the 747ADV or A380, maybe a sizeable order for T7's is a surer thing.

It does rather sound that way. I think that might be their next significant order - or at least delivery if they do get the 787/A350 order in first.



Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
User currently offlineCornish From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 8187 posts, RR: 54
Reply 4, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 9201 times:

Quoting Thaigold (Reply 2):
How many 767's does BA currently operate? And when would a replacement start?

21 I think - used on a mixture of short haul and long haul in different configurations.

As to 1 for 1 ? who knows for sure ?



Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10817 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 9130 times:

That the 767 need replacement before the 744 is clear and no surprise. That there is no need to replace 744s before 2010, also.

That they contemplate to order 773ERs instead of 747Advanced or A380 sounds alarming to me, though. How do they think to be competitive in the future then when VS and all major foreign airlines coming to LHR have the A380? Especially in First or business the A380 will be miles ahead of a 777. I always thought BA is especailly looking for that type of client. I wouldn´t think about BA a single second anymore if this foolish idea becomes reality.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 6, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 9115 times:

I expect BA will order at least as many Dreamliners as they have B767s to replace, probably with options for expansion.

I don't think BA were ever a plausible customer for the WhaleJet. LHR is slot-restricted, but BA have the slots. They will replace their JumboJets with either the B747Adv or the B777-300ER or more likely a combination of the two.


User currently offlineHa763 From United States of America, joined Jan 2003, 3671 posts, RR: 5
Reply 7, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 9065 times:
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Quoting NA (Reply 5):
How do they think to be competitive in the future then when VS and all major foreign airlines coming to LHR have the A380?

All of those airlines have limited slots at LHR and the only way for them to increase capacity is to use a larger aircraft, the A380. BA doesn't really have this problem, having the most slots at LHR. As for interiors, BA can always upgrade them.


User currently offlineJGPH1A From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 9041 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 6):
I don't think BA were ever a plausible customer for the WhaleJet.

I think they are, on specific routes where not only slot restrictions apply, but other operating restrictions that require flights to arrive or depart at specific times, eg inbound from SA or Far East. But BA are going to wait and see how QF get on with their 380's on the Kangaroo Route before committing - they are in no rush, and being an early adopter is always risky (and expensive). I could see BA operating A380's to JNB, SIN, SYD, HKG and JFK (6 daily 744's and a 777, that's a lot !).


User currently offlineCornish From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 8187 posts, RR: 54
Reply 9, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 9038 times:

I think BA will pay a waiting and watching game with the A380.

They want to see if it proves to be a real success I think. Should it really revolutionise the skies and VS in particular do very well with it, then BA will very likely look to purchase the aircraft to compete with its closest rivals. If they order, it will be once the aircraft is flying, not prior to the programme. I don't think they (and the shareholders) are prepared to invest that sort of money right now. I just don't think they will commit until they can clearly see what is being offered by the manufacturers in reality - i.e. some real costs, not projected ones.

I could see the 777-300s joining the fleet - in part replacing some 747s but not all. Some 747s got replaced by 777-200s in the past, so it would not be a huge surprise to see -300s replacing some (but certainly not all) of the 747s



Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
User currently offlineCRJ900 From Norway, joined Jun 2004, 2234 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 9035 times:
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Quoting NA (Reply 5):
That they contemplate to order 773ERs instead of 747Advanced or A380 sounds alarming to me, though. How do they think to be competitive in the future then when VS and all major foreign airlines coming to LHR have the A380? Especially in First or business the A380 will be miles ahead of a 777. I always thought BA is especailly looking for that type of client. I wouldn´t think about BA a single second anymore if this foolish idea becomes reality.

Perhaps BA is the smart one, being able to offer small "exclusive" cabins on the 777 as opposed to huge A380 cabins. Being one of 30 "exclusive" customers sounds more appealing than being one of 140. Even though the seat and amenities will be better on the A380 (so I hear...), exclusivity consist of BOTH quantity and quality, not one out of two...



Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 11, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 8999 times:

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 8):
I could see BA operating A380's to JNB, SIN, SYD, HKG and JFK (6 daily 744's and a 777, that's a lot !).

The B747Adv would do fine on all of those routes. If BA can carry the same number of passengers on 6 B747Adv or 5 A380-800 with the same operating costs, then Boeing wins. Passengers will pay slightly higher fares for the added frequency and BA has more flexibility. I don't think BA will switch to, say, 8 B777-300 per day to JFK because the B777-300 has higher seat-mile costs than the A380-800 and B747Adv. The only chance Airbus have of selling the WhaleJet to BA will be if the B747Adv fails to match or beat the WhaleJet's seat-mile costs.


User currently offlineBtblue From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 580 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 8940 times:
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Do you honestly think the A350 is a contender?

BA Looking at the A350 is merely a matter of procedure. My money is on the 787.

[Edited 2005-04-15 12:21:24]


146/2/3 737/2/3/4/5/7/8/9 A320 1/2/18/19/21 DC9/40/50 DC10/30 A300/6 A330/2/3 A340/3/6 A380 757/2/3 747/4 767/3/4 787 77
User currently offlineJGPH1A From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 8855 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 11):
Passengers will pay slightly higher fares for the added frequency and BA has more flexibility.

True, where frequency still means travelling when you want. On some specific longer routes, pax will only travel at night, eg JNB/CPT-LHR - airlines have tried daylights services, to up aircraft utilisation, but nobody's interested, especially not those travelling up front. On JNB-LHR, BA have 2 744's travelling out within an hour of each other - That could either be one or two 380's, making tons more money using the same slots etc. Similiar on SIN-LHR - BA16/BA18 leave SIN within half an hour of one another. Similiar from TYO, 2 744's within 2 hours. These are all routes where the travel window is not a 12 hour period all day, like to the US East Coast, you have maybe 3 or 4 hours max. The only way to make more money on these types of time-constrictive longhaul routes is to put bigger aircraft on. That, combined with the fact that their larger competitors on the Kangaroo Route (SQ, TG and QF - ok not a competitor, but still) will all be offering the theoretical extra space and comfort of the 380, could push BA towards looking at the 380.


User currently offlineCornish From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 8187 posts, RR: 54
Reply 14, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 8833 times:

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 13):
On JNB-LHR, BA have 2 744's travelling out within an hour of each other - That could either be one or two 380's, making tons more money using the same slots etc.



Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 13):
The only way to make more money on these types of time-constrictive longhaul routes is to put bigger aircraft on.

Yep and those South Africa flights are very full indeed (for SA and VS too). Remember in some cases that BA might have the slots at LHR but the bilaterals won't allow more flights. I'm pretty certain that is the case with UK-SA, so it may be that only a larger aircraft would fulfil the demand on the routes if a renegotiation isn't successful.



Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
User currently offlineBA380 From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 1466 posts, RR: 8
Reply 15, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 8776 times:

I would personally be staggered if BA don't at some point look at the 747adv or the 388.

But I don't think they will do so any time soon. They are still working on their balance sheet cleansing programme, which is going down well in the city.



cabin crew: doors to automatic and cross-check...
User currently offlineLutfi From China, joined Sep 2000, 780 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 8745 times:

Or put the prices up. Or increase # of front end seats, and fewer economy class seats.

That is what I have always found odd about Airbus A380 market analysis. They take it as given that airlines should meet demand with bigger aircraft, rather than make more money by increasing average fares.


User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 8731 times:

Quoting NA (Reply 5):
How do they think to be competitive in the future then when VS and all major foreign airlines coming to LHR have the A380? Especially in First or business the A380 will be miles ahead of a 777. I always thought BA is especailly looking for that type of client.



Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 13):
The only way to make more money on these types of time-constrictive longhaul routes is to put bigger aircraft on.

BA's boardroom must be populated with myopic ostriches, they won't even defend their nest!  Wink


User currently offlineDeltaWings From Switzerland, joined Aug 2004, 1294 posts, RR: 17
Reply 18, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 8650 times:

When they day comes (about in 5 years) and BA has to replace its 747 fleet, then I definetly think they will stick to the 773 and 747ADV. I definetly dont think BA will get the A346 to replace its current 747s, so if they go for Boeing then (773), the 747Adv and 787 have a high chance.


~DeltaWings



Homer: Marge, it takes two to lie. One to lie and one to listen.
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 8643 times:

Quoting Cornish (Thread starter):
Rod Eddington : "We have plenty of time to make a decision and the 777-300ER looks very attractive. We may never buy the A380 or 747ADV," he said.

 Smile

option 1 : BA may never buy the A380 or 747ADV, they will replace 747's with smaller aircraft on the rapidly growing Asian markets. Seat mile cost are not an issue.

option 2 : Rod doesn't like the options / prices he has from Boeing & Airbus & is sending out "I don't need you" signals as part of (future) negotiations.

pick one..


User currently offlineJoFMO From Germany, joined Jul 2004, 2211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 8619 times:

@Lufti: On most routes BA has strong competitors. They cannot simply higher the fares. At a certain degree aven the higher paying passengers switch to your competitor.

User currently offlineLifelinerOne From Netherlands, joined Nov 2003, 1938 posts, RR: 8
Reply 21, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 8439 times:

Isn't Rod Eddington on his way out at BA.......?

I also think Keesje is right with option 2.

Cheers!



Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
User currently offlineA350 From Germany, joined Nov 2004, 1101 posts, RR: 22
Reply 22, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8311 times:

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 21):
Isn't Rod Eddington on his way out at BA.......?

Thats the point! Who cares about Eddington's opinion of BA's long-term fleet strategy? I think Keesje is right with option 2: he just wants to give his successor the best possible position for future negociations.

Quoting Cornish (Thread starter):
Eddington said the airline's oldest 747-400 is only 15 years old

That's funny. It will be difficult to get an A380 long before 2010 if you order now, and then the oldest 747 is 20 years old. As I say in my signature: maybe they wait for the A380-900.

A350



Photography - the art of observing, not the art of arranging
User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26795 posts, RR: 75
Reply 23, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7874 times:

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 1):
Did they not at one time want to off-load some of their 744's?

They were supposed to be sending some to CX, though that has not happened yet

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 8):
I could see BA operating A380's to JNB, SIN, SYD, HKG and JFK (6 daily 744's and a 777, that's a lot !).

The reason they converted 744 orders to 772ERs was because they wanted to go with higher frequency. Still, the 747ADV would provide an extra 40-50 seats for them as well as lower CASM. As it is, 773ERs will not replace the 3 744s on LHR-LAX, as the window is rather small for the flights as is, and LAX will certainly not have the facilities for that many A380s, as LAX is having trouble finding a way to fit just one A380 into the airport. The 747ADV would make that much easier



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineJGPH1A From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7842 times:

Quoting N1120A (Reply 23):
The reason they converted 744 orders to 772ERs was because they wanted to go with higher frequency.

Yes - on routes where frequencies can be offered throughout the day. On routes where they can't (e.g. HKG, TYO, JNB etc), they are operating the largest aircraft possible, multiple times within a short window. These are the routes that the A380 is designed for.


25 Beaucaire : Well since Eddington will be history soon, the strategy of BA's procurement policies might be slightly up for review as well. Although not related - w
26 AirFrnt : The compete by offering more frequency out of the airport at less seat cost. British Airways is one of the companies that was actually around when th
27 Galapagapop : Now if they mention 773er's, what are the chances for a 787/777 order? Several airlines like the look of this combo maybe BA will as well. Cheers!
28 Daedaeg : I doubt it has anything to do with brotherhood, but more to do with Boeing having a superior product offering.
29 Shamrock_747 : BA will select the aircraft which is best for the airline, regardless of any UK-USA/EU relationship. As a private airline BA can hardly go to its shar
30 Beaucaire : In all it's history BA has never choosen any Airbus-model but merely inherited the 320's from it's takeover from British Caledonian.It is highly unli
31 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I think "publically traded company" would be a more suitable comment, but yes..your point was well understood and completely correct... "It was one o
32 Wah64d : My money too! BA has an entirely Boeing long-haul fleet and went for A320 series for short haul over B737NG. BA has never had a long haul Airbus and
33 Kangar : People forget that Rod Eddington probably won't have any major inputs on this call ultimately, Willie Walsh will be BA CEO by the time decision is mad
34 Avek00 : BA simply does not have the same need for a super-jumbo that SQ or EK does - when BA wants to fly somewhere or add capacity ex-LHR, they simply jigger
35 A350 : In the first part, I don't agree with you. It's the airlines needs what counts and what fits best in the existing fleet. The 773ER fits perfectly int
36 Star_world : How would you then explain the addition of the A319 to the fleet (in very large quantities) and the even more recent addition of the A321? Your comme
37 Morvious : BA has the same issue on other airports around the world. My guess is that BA will order some 787's first. The A350 started to late, and will be no p
38 NYC777 : It sounds like BA is interested in the 773ER so I believe to sweeten the deal, Boeing should/would add the 787 and take the out dated 767s of BAs hand
39 Iowa744fan : Just like with the new 787 seats, do you honestly think that airlines won't re-outfit aircraft with the newer product? My apologies if you mean the n
40 WhiteHatter : Some BA watchers will have an indication of which way this will go, and a slight indiscretion on BA's part last year could explain a lot. A BA staffer
41 PlaneSmart : Given BA comments to financial markets including S&P about fleet additions/replacements (lack of), unless B or A make a short life offer they cannot r
42 Thrust : I never imagined anybody saying the 747-400 is too small for a market....just unbelievable that it is. I also agree that the 747-400s are being replac
43 WAH64D : I think EI's balance sheet probably had more to do with the engine choice than personal preference. BA have extensive links with RR, hence the IAE en
44 Ha763 : Actually, more of BA's 777s have GE engines than RR engines. 16 -200ERs with RRs and 24 -200ERs and 3 -200s with GEs. I also believe BA got the RRs f
45 Lehpron : Part of the problem is that many people insist on it. Personally, I think if BA goes for 787's as opposed to 747A, then I am not worried; it was expe
46 DarthRandall : AirFrance also has a history of choosing Boeing planes like the 747 and the 777 for similar routes. The transatlantic routes in general seem to fall
47 Jacobin777 : I'm sure Eddington and Walsh have had some majour discussions about this..but as most of the posts stated above, I think it will boil down to which ma
48 United Airline : The B 747-400s are still very new and they need not be replaced anytime soon. Maybe not for another 10 years! So maybe they should first look at the B
49 N1120A : Remote gates almost exclusively and that does not solve taxiway problems. TBIT has maybe 2 gates than can hold them, but not without f'ing things up
50 United Airline : They couldn't even afford to offload a few B 747-400s to CX. CX was interested in BA's B 747-400s. So the B 747-400 is important to BA.
51 WAH64D : Sorry, I stand corrected. BA has 3 772s with GE90-76Bs, 24 772ERs with GE90-85Bs and 16 772ERs with Trent 895-17s. I do however maintain that any fut
52 AA777 : im pretty skeptical about a BA A350 order. I def. see it going to Boeing on the 787 vs. A350. As for the 747ADV vs. A380, I still see BA going for boe
53 Post contains images Propulsion : Really? Airbus A320 family comes to mind.
54 Bill142 : the 773 dosn't have GE power exclusive. The 773ER does.
55 WAH64D : The A320s were an inherited order from BCal. BA liked the aircraft when they were delivered and bought more (many more) on the strength of their expe
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