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The Best Route For Airbus After The A380  
User currently offlineAmy From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 1150 posts, RR: 7
Posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 5803 times:

Soon the A380 will be released and Airbus can start putting resources into another new aircraft, but which market should they address?

Personally I feel that the A350 is a mistake. The 787 has so many orders now that I believe this market will not yeild for Airbus. Instead I believe Airbus should start on an A320 series replacement and pre-emt Boeing's 737 replacement which surely can't be far off.

There are A320s that are 20+ years old now. By the time their replavcement was ready these could be ripe for replacement!

I hope Airbus seriously consider their next move and dont just shove the A350 forward blindly.

I'd vote for the A390 being an A320 replacement as the best call for Airbus.

Thoughts? Opinions?


A340-300 - slow, but awesome!
29 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 859 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 5775 times:

I smell A vs B flaming....

*huge sigh*

Micke//SE  Yeah sure



Airbus SAS - Love them both
User currently offlineSanjet From Canada, joined Mar 2005, 181 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 5766 times:

I agree that the A320 is getting old and will soon be in need of a new model or upgrade. Maybe they can make a "NG" series of it. With airbus's current automation, I'm a little scared of what the A320NG would be though  Sad


Will Fly For Food!
User currently offlineGlidepath73 From Germany, joined Mar 2005, 1021 posts, RR: 44
Reply 3, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 5717 times:

I think Airbus would primary change to more efficient engines. New avionic and a stronger use of CFK / Glare materials would make the a/c more light. I don't know if they really would start to create new wings and a new cockpit / nose.
I guess the aerodynamic of the 320 series was very well developed, even 20 years ago. What do you think?

Regards,
Patrick



Aviation! That rocks...
User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2830 posts, RR: 42
Reply 4, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 5651 times:

Quoting Glidepath73 (Reply 3):
I think Airbus would primary change to more efficient engines. New avionic and a stronger use of CFK / Glare materials would make the a/c more light. I don't know if they really would start to create new wings and a new cockpit / nose.
I guess the aerodynamic of the 320 series was very well developed, even 20 years ago. What do you think?

A A320NG versus a new composite based 737 would suffer the same fate as the A350 is currently suffering against the 787. Airbus needs to have a solid commercial plane that they can develop these technologies Boeing is bringing to the table, without a risk of applying it to the most popular product and seeing it fail.


User currently offlineA388 From Netherlands Antilles, joined May 2001, 10010 posts, RR: 15
Reply 5, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 5614 times:

I agree that Airbus should focus on a A320/737 replacement instead of going ahead with the A350 which in my opinion won't become a success like the 787 has been so far. The A350 to me is still a fast reaction to a completely new design, being the 787. The 787 will have an advantage over the A350 unless Airbus really re-designs the A330 to an almost complete new aircraft in the form of the A350. If Airbus can manage that, they will make a much better chance.

But a A320/737 will be a wiser choice in Airbus' case and might give them an advantage over Boeing, just like how Boeing currently has an advantage over Airbus with their 787. In other words, Airbus must come up with a complete new aircraft design to replace the A320 and 737. The name "A390" indeed sounds very cool, I never thaught of that name, good one Amy  Smile

A388


User currently offlineMauriceB From Netherlands, joined Aug 2004, 2491 posts, RR: 25
Reply 6, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 5601 times:

I think Airbus should cerioesly rethink the A350.... this way it isn't going to win that much orders as the 787 has. True, they are about to anounce orders for up to 50 A350's at the paris airshow (they stated that in the article about 737 replacement) and expect to have 100 orders at the years end , but still isn't enough.

also with the 737 still becomming better and even a better boeing plane on the horizon i think Airbus should consider an even better improvement on the craft or even a whole new plane just like the 737 replacer will be.

i see a lot of orders for a potentional A320 replacement, since i don't see airlines like BA and AF going back to Boeing again after they just dropped the most of theire boeing short-haul fleet to go to an entirely Airbus short-haul fleet (NOTE: im not reffering to the long-haul in anyway)

i think for the A330 and better improvement of the A350 is enough to get more customers since a lot of current A330 airlines are extremely happy about the aircrafts performance and cargo capicity


a lot of people on a.net are stating that they should go for an A300 replacement, but i don't think that's the main priority at the moment since the 787 already took to much ground there and to develope an new plane for such a small devision woudn't be much profitable...


User currently offlineSolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 859 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 5567 times:

Cow manure!

So Airbus is falling on its back screaming n kicking: "Oooh no, Boeing and 787 is so much better than the 350, we better throw in the towel"?? I dont think so....

They gonna fight this tooth n nail whatever the cost!

Micke/SE  stirthepot 



Airbus SAS - Love them both
User currently offlineAirbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8663 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 5525 times:

I think Airbus has already decided what their route is going to be: A350.
Whether you think it's right or not, this is where they're going as stated in this week's press release: "New landing gear as a platform for growth".
They're going for the whole enchilada!

It's obvious now that the A350 will be more than just a replacement to the A310/767, and a direct competitor to the 787. They're after something much bigger. They want it all. They want to build an aircraft that yes, will be able to take a bite off the 787 marketshare and 767 replacement orders but also want to put themselves in a position where they can start working on a 777 replacement.


User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1597 posts, RR: 17
Reply 9, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 5446 times:

Quoting Amy (Thread starter):
Instead I believe Airbus should start on an A320 series replacement and pre-emt Boeing's 737 replacement which surely can't be far off.

I disagree whole heartedly. Airbus should instead be working on a new clean sheet medium widebody jet to replace the A300/10 & 330. A320 is still selling like hot cakes... Airbus should wait and see what Boeing has up their sleeve for the 737 first. Their'sa huge backorder and a very healthy client list for the A320.

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 8):
They want to build an aircraft that yes, will be able to take a bite off the 787 marketshare and 767 replacement orders but also want to put themselves in a position where they can start working on a 777 replacement.

The A350 that is based on the A330... is not a good replacement for the 762/300/310... and also have my doubts that the A350 would be a good competitor to the higher capacity 773ER, even with the new landing gear. So this is not going to work. Airbus needs a clean design that supports multiple wings for the many missions you're setting the A350 to be. Just not going to happen unless they radically widen the scope of the A350. Right now the A350 is a competitor to the 788&9, 763, and 772. That's it!



Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineAirbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8663 posts, RR: 10
Reply 10, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 5384 times:

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 9):
Right now the A350 is a competitor to the 788&9, 763, and 772. That's it!

Or maybe that's what they want everyone to believe  Smile I have my doubts that a company that has been a leader in innovation for so long (since the launch of the A320 program), is now all of a sudden going to settle into being a follower, and a second rate follower at best. Something doesn't add up.


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10253 posts, RR: 97
Reply 11, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 5386 times:
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I smell a rat in that the A350 spec feels like it keeps moving (upwards). I think you have it right, Airbazar, that A350 is going to grow into something more than a 787 competitor. Emirates want lots of 300 seat, 8300 mile aircraft (apparrently). It wouldn't take much more to grow the A359 to that

There's no way that Airbus have finalised the A350 spec yet. I'm watching for the MTOW to grow, the % composites to grow, maybe even to the extent of composite fuse "sections", to gain further experience in composites technology.

I'd be astonished if Airbus do anything other than make the A320 successor an all-composite aircraft. It's where the money is.
But I suspect, like Boeing, they will want more experience of the production technologies at that scale before they do, so I would expect something intermediate. Whether it's the A350, or an A300/310 successor, or both who knows....
As to resources, a lot of people will be coming off the A380 pretty soon, and I can't see a warmed-over A330 keeping them out of the pubs for very long.....


User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1597 posts, RR: 17
Reply 12, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 5328 times:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 11):
a lot of people will be coming off the A380 pretty soon

I have heard from either posts on here or news on the web/Flight International most engineers are now working on the A350... So this is happening as we speak.

I have never doubted the Airbus ingenuity - just look at the A380... but again, the A350 based on the A330. My opinion is that the A330 just can't be it all to everyone... so I really have my doubts. Of course, what's currently released is most likely to change. My basic point, is that anything other than A332 or A333 replacement should be a new clean sheet design.

If Airbus is indeed thinking of a big twin, the A350 will tread into the A340/777 territory than goodbye A340. But I guess nothing lasts forever.



Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineComeAndGo From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1041 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 5164 times:

Airbus should invent something new. Stop copying Boeing.

It's time for them to show they can innovate. Not just create aircraft on par with Boeing.

Boeing is the innovator here not Airbus.


User currently offlineMark_D. From Canada, joined Aug 2001, 1447 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 4889 times:

ComeAndGo--Airbus should invent something new. Stop copying Boeing.
It's time for them to show they can innovate. Not just create aircraft on par with Boeing.Boeing is the innovator here not Airbus.


Yup that's true, at least when it comes to Big Lies like the "Sonic Cruiser" anyway  fluffy 
While Airbus on the other hand builds brand new planes (A380), which Boeing says it now sort of wants to copy (747Adv).


Meantime the whole 787 frenzy around here and in the U.S. press is really appearing manic, especially since it's so incredibly soon in the process. The Boeing and subcontractor autoclave and mandrel and prepreg tape guys will basically just be playing around for the entire rest of the year, making a bunch of fusealge skin sections then selectively coring them in places to see if they cooked OK with no flakiness no big air bubbles, and so on. Then assuming they have the recipe right for every single one of those sections --and that's a big if-- they then (hopefully) spend all of 2006 metal-framing and wiring and ducting and plumbing them all respectively, before (hopefully) finally stitching them together in about two years' time, and rolling out a plane by summer 2007. Which (hopefully) flies by Autumn, and then (hopefully) gets certified about a year later than that.

So there's huge ways to go before even those Chinese airliners maybe see their first 787s, maybe possibly by the time of the Beijing Olympics.



Airbus for it's part admittedly seems to be playing a bit of a laughable catch-up PR shindig with all the 350 talk --and that's all it is, talk-- so I guess now that the main A380 designer guys have done their jobs for at least several months now maybe they can sit down and figure out exactly what the company wants to do with the rest of their lineup instead. I figure it'll take 'em at least a year or so. But they will come up with something. No question about it.

[Edited 2005-04-20 19:14:58]

User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 4843 times:

Quoting Amy (Thread starter):
Personally I feel that the A350 is a mistake. The 787 has so many orders now that I believe this market will not yeild for Airbus. Instead I believe Airbus should start on an A320 series replacement and pre-emt Boeing's 737 replacement which surely can't be far off.

There are A320s that are 20+ years old now. By the time their replavcement was ready these could be ripe for replacement!

Precisely. If I were them, this is exactly what I would do.



One Nation Under God
User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 37
Reply 16, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 4828 times:

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 8):
It's obvious now that the A350 will be more than just a replacement to the A310/767, and a direct competitor to the 787. They're after something much bigger. They want it all. They want to build an aircraft that yes, will be able to take a bite off the 787 marketshare and 767 replacement orders but also want to put themselves in a position where they can start working on a 777 replacement.

2010 is five years too soon for a 777 replacement and probably a few years too soon for a A343 replacement, if we are talking about existing fleets. True there will be new orders, but it is not clear to me that the A359 is going to be a huge improvement over the 772ER, especially if the 772ER continues to have a signficant uplift advantage. As a derivative, the A359 will likely leave a lot of breathing room for Boeing to introduce a new technology 772 replacement at the optimal time for taking advantage of the replacement market for both the 772A/ER and A333/A343.

[Edited 2005-04-20 19:35:41]


ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineKL808 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1585 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 4804 times:

Quoting Amy (Thread starter):
Personally I feel that the A350 is a mistake

that's your personal opinion, however I dont believe Airbus thinks SO. Why, well ATW of February or March I think has a great article regarding the B787 vs A350 and in it ATW mentions that Airbus doesn't even need to sell to many A350's in order for Boeing to make a huge profit on the program. According to the article Airbus just needs to capture 1/3 of that market and Boeing would be in trouble. Check the article my figures might be wrong but Airbus cares less about getting the WHOLE B787 market share.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 4):
A A320NG versus a new composite based 737 would suffer

How would you know, are you a fortune teller? All of us dont know SQUAT what Boeing will do with the new B737 program, until more info is out there we can only speculate. IN MY OPINION a A320NG will work just fine.

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 6):
I think Airbus should cerioesly rethink the A350.... this way it isn't going to win that much orders as the 787 has.

It doesn't have to, check above.

Folks, the A350 isnt really going to be a true B787 competitor, however, in my opinion as well as the article I read at ATW, Airbus needs to offer this right now in order to put Boeing on check. The bigger version of the B787 wont be available till 2012, however, EK is pushing both manufacturers to build a bigger version sooner rather than later, and only Airbus is listening at the moment. So the A350 MIGHT get a boost of confidence if EK orders it this coming summer (QR, AC, could also become launch customers).
B787 is a great aircraft, no doubt. I love that Boeing is going to try something different with all them new composites. However, dont count Airbus out.

What should Airbus work on now? Well they should continue working on the A350, or just work on a new design. Do they have the money for a new design? Probably not. But the A300/310/B767 Replacement would be the best program Airbus could look into.

What should Boeing do now? Get more orders for the B787, and start making a replacement for the B737. B747ADV? Shoot this would be hard, but it would cost less for Boeing to build this than build a new design. By building the B747ADV, Boeing could steel some orders away from the A380 which could or would hurt the A380 program.


Drew



AMS-LAX-MNL
User currently offlineA350 From Germany, joined Nov 2004, 1101 posts, RR: 22
Reply 18, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 4726 times:

Quoting KL808 (Reply 17):

Folks, the A350 isnt really going to be a true B787 competitor, however, in my opinion as well as the article I read at ATW, Airbus needs to offer this right now in order to put Boeing on check. The bigger version of the B787 wont be available till 2012, however, EK is pushing both manufacturers to build a bigger version sooner rather than later, and only Airbus is listening at the moment.

That's a good point! The battle lines become clear now: The A350 is a competitor to the 789, but not to the 783 and 788, and will come two years earlier than the 789. This results in an interesting situation: Boeing is actually alone on the A300/A310/767 replacement market, but faces strong competition to the 789 as well as to the T7. Personally, I think the 789 is the most promising type. However, both A and B will find their market.

A350



Photography - the art of observing, not the art of arranging
User currently offlineAirbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8663 posts, RR: 10
Reply 19, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 4681 times:

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 16):
2010 is five years too soon for a 777 replacement and probably a few years too soon for a A343 replacement, if we are talking about existing fleets.

Tell that to SIA (SQ). Historically, the average age of their aircraft has been 5 years. Right now it is 5 years and 1 month. In another 5 years, the 777 will be the only non-airbus type in their fleet, including SilkAir, and will be ready for replacement. Do you think Airbus doesn't know that?


User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 37
Reply 20, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 4584 times:

Quoting KL808 (Reply 17):
According to the article Airbus just needs to capture 1/3 of that market and Boeing would be in trouble. Check the article my figures might be wrong but Airbus cares less about getting the WHOLE B787 market share.



Quoting KL808 (Reply 17):
Folks, the A350 isnt really going to be a true B787 competitor, however, in my opinion as well as the article I read at ATW, Airbus needs to offer this right now in order to put Boeing on check. The

The A350 can't hope capture 1/3 of the 787-type market if doesn't compete with the 787 in all the same market segments. And given the cost of the A350 program, they need to get significant sales from the progam, especially if the technology incorporated becomes obsolete. Boeing will likely bring out stretch derivatives of the 787 and also apply the 787 technology to other programs, allowing them to reduce future R&D costs.

Quoting A350 (Reply 18):
Personally, I think the 789 is the most promising type.

Well there seems to be a lot of customers in line for the 783/8, so it is hard to make that argument.

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 19):
In another 5 years, the 777 will be the only non-airbus type in their fleet, including SilkAir, and will be ready for replacement. Do you think Airbus doesn't know that?

Uh, are you forgetting about those 19 773ERs that they have yet to receive yet? 777s won't be leaving the fleet in that time span



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineKL808 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1585 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 4566 times:

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 20):
The A350 can't hope capture 1/3 of the 787-type market if doesn't compete with the 787 in all the same market segments. And given the cost of the A350 program, they need to get significant sales from the progam

Actually if you read the Article I mentioned above, it tells us that Airbus doesn't need to sell a lot of these A350's because it shares a lot of its components with its older brother the A330's, thus minimizing cost (IE it could spread the cost and profits with the current A330 line) but also it would steal orders from Boeing. The more Airbus steal customers away from Boeing, the harder it is or the longer it will take for Boeing to recoup the costs of the B787. If you have the chance that article has a good compare and contrast of each aircraft.

Drew



AMS-LAX-MNL
User currently onlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12970 posts, RR: 25
Reply 22, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 4524 times:

Quoting KL808 (Reply 21):
The more Airbus steal customers away from Boeing

Right now, the trend is the opposite (KE, probably NW, possibly AC, etc). How many of these can A afford to loose to B due to an inferior product? Also as others have suggested, it's not clear that B needs to write off all the R&D against the B787 program, some of it can be written off as a part of future programs. So, one wonders if the article you quote is hitting the mark.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 37
Reply 23, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 4503 times:

Quoting KL808 (Reply 21):
Actually if you read the Article I mentioned above, it tells us that Airbus doesn't need to sell a lot of these A350's because it shares a lot of its components with its older brother the A330's, thus minimizing cost (IE it could spread the cost and profits with the current A330 line) but also it would steal orders from Boeing.

I would be skeptical because a) the $4-5 billion development cost for the A350 derivative is high b) the A350 list prices are high c) 787 manufacturing techniques seem likely to reduce manufacturing costs signficantly compared to planes built in the traditional manner d) and the dollar returning to early to mid 1990s exchange rates eliminates the pricing advantage Airbus had in the late 90s upto about 2003. Boeing may have a significant enough advantage in manufacturing costs to counter whatever advantages airbus gains from leveraging previous R&D investments for the A330.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineComeAndGo From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1041 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (9 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 4508 times:

Quoting Mark_D. (Reply 14):
Yup that's true, at least when it comes to Big Lies like the "Sonic Cruiser" anyway   
While Airbus on the other hand builds brand new planes (A380), which Boeing says it now sort of wants to copy (747Adv).

Where's the innovation in the A380 ? There's none.
The 787 is made of plastic. Never before did we have a plastic jetliner. We have plastic combat aircraft but no jetliner. The engine of the 777 was cutting edge and an innovation for the commercial aviation industry. The A380 is a double decker aircraft so is the C5, the Antonov 125 and the 747. The engines are the same as all other, no major innovation here, no geared front fan, no ramjet, no new fuel, no nothing. The cockpit is the same as the rest of Airbus. Where's the innovation ? The last innovation at airbus was the introduction of Fly-By-Wire which they took from the Concord and wing fences. The Concord was an innovation in commercial aviation. That was in the '60's. So much for innovation at Airbus.

At Boeing they have the guts to do something new. At Airbus they copy Boeing.


25 RootsAir : umjmm I don't think we're past 1988 are we...or have I skipped 3 years all of a sudden !
26 Post contains images YULMRS : We all know that the A350 was the worst idea Airbus ever had (So is the 747 Adv for Boeing). I hope this program will be cancelled (it's not officiall
27 DfwRevolution : Actually, when Boeing began marketing the Sonic Cruiser, Airbus proposed a simmilar concept of their own. It was promptly axed when Boeing terminated
28 Airlinelover : Bankrupcy... Pure and simple... Chris
29 JoyA380B747 : Yes maybe you are true and I feel that Airbus must must bring a more economic model out ....possibly a 320 replacement. But are any such projects on
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