Iwok From Sweden, joined Jan 2005, 1106 posts, RR: 0 Posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 6388 times:
The current competition between Boeing and Airbus is starting to get a little stale. Everyday on a.net there are several A vs. B threads and we all get emotional about one manufacturer or the other. Its kind of like living in a small town with only two baseball teams.
Seeing that business seems to be picking up a bit, there might be space for another competitor.
I really wish that Lockeed would get back in the game. Maybe we could get some sort of consortium with Lockeed, Dornier and Hyundai? What about Embraer?
My questions are:
1) who do you think will step to the plate and manufacture/market a new intercontinental aircraft?
2) what sort of aircraft would it be? (twin, three-holer, 300 seats etc.)
AA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5540 posts, RR: 11 Reply 1, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 6349 times:
I think the current large aircraft market is saturated. The market cannot support more than two established manufacturers. See DC-10 versus L-1011. Both good airplanes, but had questionable results for their manufacturers. The large aircraft market will always be smaller than the medium-sized market. Hence Boeing has sold over 5000 737s and Airbus has sold a buncha A320s, while far fewer widebodies have been ordered.
Couple all that with the fact that the world is involved in producing parts for the 787 (Japanese) and A380 (various others), and I think that there won't be any big changes in the large aircraft lineup for a few decades.
ON THE OTHER HAND... I think that someone will come up with a new narrowbody soon. Airbus and Boeing are both mumbling something about composite replacements for both of their best sellers. But I think the big surprise will come from Japan. Japan is now officially looking into building airplanes. And I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they come up with a 100-seater that blows Embraer and Canadair out of the water. Then, they'll stretch it to compete with Boeing and Airbus.
There is an article on Japanese 787 production efforts posted on this forum. Read it, it's informative.
My hope in this regard is that the "Third Block" (Let's say Brazil, India, China, South Africa) find a good solution. Embraer could alliance with Hindustan Aeronautics for instance... It would be great to have a third manufacturer out of these countries.. know-how is available - some consortuim like Airbus, made of four countries
JDD1 From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 94 posts, RR: 2 Reply 4, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 6194 times:
Brazil, Canada, China, India, Japan, Russia, - Europe, USA. In the next 25 years there will be eight possible sources of large civil a/c.
I believe there will certainly be eight manufacturing centres but perhaps three or four competing products. So the cooperation already under way will increase.
USA-Japan (already in place, but who will be the leader in 25 yrs?)
Europe-China (cooperation already starting) + perhaps Canada
It is unthinkable that countries the size of China and India will not have their own industries.
Japan has already stated its interest and is puting its money where its mouth is.
The Russian industry will come back and is being helped by Europe and the USA.
Brazil and Canada are already increasing the sizes of their products.
The next 25 years will be VERY interesting.
PM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6813 posts, RR: 65 Reply 6, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 6162 times:
The cost of entering this business is surely prohibitive. It's not just a question of designing and building the damn things, you also have to establish an after-sales network and so on. Plus, as an 'unknown', you'd need to offer a truly amazing aeroplane and/or irresistably low prices to convince airlines to take the risk.
If it costs Boeing or Airbus billions to launch a new product with everything they already have in place, how much more would it cost a new entrant? So, even if, say, Toyota decided to, er, diversify (!) even they would find it back-breakingly expensive.
That leaves (1) existing aerospace companies not currently building airliners, (2) smaller niche players who might move upmarket, and (3) national or multi-national consortia who'd be assisted by their governments. (Where have I heard that before...?)
(1) Most aerospace companies have been getting out of the business of building airliners. BAE Systems (apart for their stake in Airbus) and Lockheed come to mind. Could they return? Of course they could but they won't - at least not on their own. Apart from anything, they couldn't prosper with just one model. (Remember the lonely TriStar? Remember McD's dwindling product line at the end?) To compete effectively with Airbus and Boeing they'd need to be in all or most of the market segments from 100 to 350 seats. If building one model costs a large fortune, what price two or three?
(2) Embraer et al may continue to build ever bigger and better planes but it will take them decades to be able to rival Boeing and Airbus. We shouldn't assume it could never happen but it won't happen any time soon.
(3) If China or perhaps Japan decided to make such a thing a national priority they could probably build a large airliner. In China it may have a captive market. How attractive such a plane would be on the open market, however, is a moot point.
The dark horse in all of this is Russia. Tupolev, Antonov and Illushin are already building 'heavies' and have been doing so for years. They don't sell (much) outside the former Soviet Union but there is the potential there if someone has the ambition - and the money.
But can the market sustain more than two major players? I doubt it. So if there is to be another 'giant' in 20 or 30 years time it will presumably be at the expense of one (or both?) of our beloved A&B...
Starlionblue From Greenland, joined Feb 2004, 16339 posts, RR: 66 Reply 8, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 6127 times:
Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1): The market cannot support more than two established manufacturers
While this may well be true, remember that back in the day, no one thought that Boeing and MD could be challenged. And look at Airbus now. Remember Airbus came out of more or less nowhere and 30 odd years later they are the market leader in many ways. Always watch out for the hungry newcomer.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - from Citadel by John Ringo
JAM747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 550 posts, RR: 1 Reply 10, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 6060 times:
I think one of the smaller jet manufacturers might grow in the years to come and enter the bigger a/c market. However certain factors would have to be considered. It could be more profitable to stay within their niche for now because it costs a lot to venture into large a/c. It might also be harder to spread the economies of scale in terms of technology unless there was a range of a/c in a certain size, for example A and B can easier spread costs,techniques on different versions of large a/c at less unit cost because they have a large range of large aircrafts. Similarly smaller a/c manufactures do the same with their range of small a/c. On the other hand China and India are growing markets and Embraer for example who I think already builds planes there might be encouraged to build larger planes for that market. They might be guaranteed a market if they merge with a Chinese manufacturer or have a entity that is 50% owned by the Chinese. Some auto manufacturers were only able to sell or grow in China through a similar deal. There is also the possibility of the ex-Soviet A/c builder merging with a western manufacturer and growing in the commercial a/c business. There are alot of expertise there in large a/c design.With fuel prices being a big factor with a/c purchases maybe in 10 to 20yrs someone will offer an alternative or some innovation which shifts the table in their direction. If one of the big players now A or B makes a wrong market decision or have some quality issues with one or more of their a/c it might push them back and make way for another manufacturer or consortium to enter the large plane field. There are many possibilities we will just have to wait and see.
GoogleBoy From Canada, joined Mar 2005, 419 posts, RR: 1 Reply 11, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 6011 times:
Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1): think the current large aircraft market is saturated. The market cannot support more than two established manufacturers.
I think you are quite right and to the point. The next large aircraft manufacturer will be the one who takes time to look at the value chain of aircraft sales and attempt to remove value that costs too much and adds value that is not available to the consumer. If you are interested please read: Blue Ocean Strategy at http://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.ha.../common/item_detail.jhtml?id=6190.
My guess is that the most important new value to be brought in the market is large aircraft certificated with new engine that use alternate propulsion techniques and offer an alternative to the yet to be unaffordable JP fuels.
With the upcoming World Oil Production Peak to come, it will become imperative to design engines that run on something else that oil. Just like Toyata decided 15 years ago to design vehicles with a hybrid engine. It's about time and the manufacturer that understand that first and invest first will likely get the first 'blue ocean' advantage. It could be a new comer (likely) since it would not be constrained within the rules of a large coporate culture that is slow to move on.
Flygaz From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2004, 70 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 5959 times:
I think Embraer will surprise us all. With the sucess of the EMB-170 family, maybe they will look at competing with the A320 family and the B737NG. Maybe they will be the ones to dominate the single aisle family rather than the A32X and the B737E, after all Boeing and Airbus seem to be worrying about replacing the 767/A330.
Iwok From Sweden, joined Jan 2005, 1106 posts, RR: 0 Reply 16, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 2 days ago) and read 5724 times:
thanks for your responses. I am pretty sure that something will be coming out of the Asian Tiger; India, China, Japan, Korea etc. I am also pretty sure that if one or more of these countries makes a move then Lockheed would certainly want to get back in the game. Also, seeing how strategic relations are growing between Brazil and China, one could definately see some joint venture forming between the two.
Mrniji From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 17, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 5673 times:
Quoting Iwok (Reply 16): am pretty sure that something will be coming out of the Asian Tiger; India, China, Japan, Korea etc.
I second your opinion.. I am quite sure that, in accordnce with the infant industry agreement, there will be a lot of protection soon (here NOT in the form of tariffs but subsidies) - I already see the discussions about inproper subsidies coming, although the IIA can easily be suited in the neo-liberal framework we are living in
But right now I'm putting my money for the power partner on the China side. In fact, since that thread, we've seen 'China' buy IBM's PCs, intellectual capital of Rover, almost buy into the Korean car market, and test some increasingly big plays in oil. Increased ability to make aircraft gives them more ability to invade Taiwan. And they've put a man in space. I don't think commercial aircraft manufacture or assembly will never be tried.
Cloudboy From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 736 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 5590 times:
I see the single-aisle market growing with Embraer being the main competitor, with Dornier (in whatever guise they end up in) and Bombardier following along. I think that the line between the RJs and the 737 is going to fade away.
As for wide-bodies, I don't see much growth in that. Eventually I see Embraer making an attempt, but not for some time. I DO see Tupolev possibly getting involved, primarily by teaming up with the Chinese. While I would not expect them to make any real inroads inthe US market, I could see them eventually making sales to the asian, Middle East, and some Eurpoean airlines. If they can get their engineering up to par.
"Six becoming three doesn't create more Americans that want to fly." -Adam Pilarski
ComeAndGo From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 959 posts, RR: 0 Reply 22, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 5488 times:
Honda is an engine company. They build cars & bikes to sell engines. Honda has to get off the ground first. Honda could be a player in 15 to 20 years.
I think that if you want to see tomorrow's leaders you have to look at who is in the game today. Embraer is supported by the Brasilian government. They have a chance. They are introducing a line of small 100+ seat planes that start competing with A & B. Question is what are they going to do next. In my bett is either on Embraer or Canadair. Bombardier is a company of excellence. Every product they make it is a quality product, whether it's snowmobiles, business jets, water-bombers, atv's, bullet trains, trolleys, commuter- trains, you name it.
A & B might get so into fighting each other that they totally miss Embraer and Canadair.
Hmmmm... From Canada, joined May 1999, 2095 posts, RR: 5 Reply 23, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 5459 times:
Financially, getting into the large commercial aircraft racket is almost impossible. Nor is it known as a good money maker. To make money, it's better to buy junk bonds than make jumbo jets. Indeed, you can make more money washing windows or other menial tasks. In fact, 25 years ago, Lockheed was sent packing, having lost a bundle on every airliner they sold. All 250.
I grew up as a kid during the short time the L-1011 program was in operation. During that time I wasn't working. I was just an adolescent. However, I shoveled a driveway one winter in 1975 and profited 50 cents for my efforts. As amazing as it sounds, I earned more money clearing that one driveway than Lockheed profited in ten years building and selling their widebodied airliner.
The commercial airliner business is a vainglorious one. It's about national pride, politics, and prestige. And that requires deep pockets. The only country that has both the deep pockets and the lust for new prestige is China. As a business venture, the airliner business is a non-starter. But for national pride, it is one of the great symbols. China's star is in ascension and it is looking for symbols like that. And I think it will strive to achieve them, no matter what the cost to the nation.
An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised
FLY2LIM From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1183 posts, RR: 10 Reply 24, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 5456 times:
Quoting Iwok (Thread starter): Its kind of like living in a small town with only two baseball teams.
Sorry, I didn't like the analogy, especially since most small towns have no baseball teams. Even if you compare the baseball rivalry between Boston and New York, it doesn't create as much passion as A vs B on A.net, he he he. For the Europeans, it would compare to Real Madrid vs. Barcelona, for example. Still, I think the A vs. B rivalry tops all others, he he he.
Just having fun.
Faucett. La primera linea aerea del Peru.
25 Mrniji: I read an interesting article and thought I provide you with a link, as it suits the topic of the thread: http://www.business-standard.com/com...lsele
26 Allstarflyer: Embraer. Probably more so than Bombardier, but that's from someone who has watched the CRJ-200's of UX fall aside to the ERJ-170's (thought the CRJ's
27 Areopagus: Aircraft manufacturing is indeed a "sporty game", but MD and Lockheed's exit, leaving only Airbus and Boeing, does not prove that the market is only b
28 Atmx2000: I don't think they will have the home market for narrow bodies to make it viable like they have in other industries. And given that two thirds of the