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Likelihood Of BA A380's  
User currently offlineFinkenwerder From Germany, joined Apr 2005, 147 posts, RR: 0
Posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 8906 times:

There is much heated discussion here on the banks of the river Elbe as to what exactly BA are thinking about the A380. Our best guess so far (assuming a successful service entry) is that they will watch the Far East and Aussie routes very carefully and then, assuming again all looks fine and dandy and the airlines are in fact making that fabled 15% saving they will take the plunge.

BA have a permanent office here and are heavily involved in all aspects of production on the A319/20/21 they are always suitably inscrutable !

Question is what will they do with 50 odd B744's

63 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineUKA330 From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2004, 67 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 8849 times:
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The capacity of the A380 is to great to be considered as a direct replacement for the 744. Also, BA are currently trying to reduce their debt, and highly unlikely to be looking for additional wide-body aircraft. IF, however, they do decide to go for the A380. It will not be for a while yet, and they might only go for about 10-15 airframes.

Just my  twocents 

Ross


User currently offlineFinkenwerder From Germany, joined Apr 2005, 147 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 8790 times:

Quoting UKA330 (Reply 1):
The capacity of the A380 is to great to be considered as a direct replacement for the 744

I take your point, but how else would they employ the A380 other than on 744 routes ?


User currently offlineBCAL From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2004, 3384 posts, RR: 16
Reply 3, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 8786 times:

The word from BA's stables is that at present they have no need for any A380s, and the aircraft would only be suited for a few of their routes if they did. They have not yet said that they have no interest in the A380 and will not be ordering any, but I suspect that as they are not in a hurry and reducing debt is their priority at present, they are waiting to see what Boeing comes up with. In the meantime, they are obviously keeping a close watch on the A380 project and will, if ever, place an order when they feel the time is right and the aircraft is suited for their requirements.


MOL on SRB's latest attack at BA: "It's like a little Chihuahua barking at a dying Labrador. Nobody cares."
User currently offlineCatatonic From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 1155 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 8780 times:

Quoting Finkenwerder (Thread starter):
Question is what will they do with 50 odd B744's

Sell them to developing nations.... Or VS?



Equally Cursed and Blessed.
User currently offlineAA777 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 2544 posts, RR: 28
Reply 5, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 8728 times:
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If Boeing launches the 747 ADV, then I see that as being the replacement. BA MAY still add more A380s for ultra-high density routes like LHR-JFK, or LHR-SYD.... but I still put my $$ on the 747 ADV for BA, since their 747's serve them wonderfully at present.

-AA777


User currently offlineGDB From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 13195 posts, RR: 77
Reply 6, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 8603 times:

Ask again in 5 or more years time, BA are not ordering anything right now, and won't be for years.
As for 747Adv, maybe it won't make a difference, and by the time BA comes to order it will be 15-20 year history, but I doubt BA will be too pleased at having a 'choice' of only GE engines.
After the 777 GE90 issues for the first few years (putting all this A340-500/600 in perspective), as well as the poor performance (to this day) of the engine o/haul facility BA sold to GE, as part of the GE90 deal.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 8444 times:

If I remeber well some of BA´s 747 have 290 seats (in 4 classes) or so, with that spec they put can 400 seats nicely in a A380.

I think there is a real chance they will not take the A380 in the next 20 years, maybe 10 %


User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11559 posts, RR: 62
Reply 8, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 8402 times:

Likelihood of BA A380's: Zero, or at least very close.

User currently offlineBackfire From Germany, joined Oct 2006, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 8396 times:

The irony of it all, of course, is that BA was one of the driving airlines behind the original Very Large Commercial Transport and New Large Aircraft projects, having seen the need for such high-capacity transports.

User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 10, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 8387 times:

BA has publically stated that its not interested in the A380 at this time - but BA is not really interested in any new aircraft at this time since its first priority is to clean up its balance sheet and get its finances and debt under control. So far, BA has done a rather good job in improving its financial position especially when considering the cost of fuel.

Will BA get the A380 in the long run - I think so, mainly because its base is at overcrowded Heathrow where slots are already an issue and things are not likely to get easier in the future. BA, at some point, will have to think about replacing its 747-400 fleet with something, and if the 747A does not launch, I do not see BA downsizing into 773s in the future since its difficult to add flights at LHR - also consider that many routes out of London to key destinations such have rather small departure time windows, ie, flights can only leave at certain hours to allow for a reasonable arrival time, so the big A380 would be useful. Lastly, many of BA's competitors (like VS, EK and QF) will have the A380, and it may be a necessary competitive tool - a lot depends on how the other airlines configure their A380s. While I do not expect spas and shopping malls on board any A380s, the extra space may allow airlines to significantly improve their F and J class products and one of BA's priorities is to maintain and increase premium traffic.

BA and the A380? A definite maybe, not now but later, and a lot depends on Boeing and the 747A.


User currently offlineJamesbuk From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 3968 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 8374 times:

well T3 at heathrow is getting an extension for the a380 so you would have thought they would get one now that there are spaces for them starting to appear


You cant have your cake and eat it... What the hells the point in having it then!!!
User currently offlineAirWales From UK - Wales, joined Oct 2004, 453 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 8353 times:

I suspect an 747 advance. As already stated, they will probabl onyl use them on certain routes - BA stick with the 744 and 747 advanced.

User currently offlineNomad From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2005, 56 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 8305 times:

My opinion for what it's worth is that BA will buy the A380 we have several routes that the aircraft could be deployed on right now let alone in 3 or 4 years time. Have any of you tried to get on a flight to any of the following HKG/SYD/MEL/JNB/CPT/BKK/BOM/DEL lately ? I work for the airline and know that we could put her to good use. Furthermore, I reckon we won't wait 5 years, before we sign up for her either. I think once she has proved that she can achieve or beat the operating performance criteria promised by Airbus BA will get on board with an initial order of around 20 frames. In my experience passenger traffic grows each year and we need to look to the future markets. We have probably the best network of routes in the world and the A380 would be a perfect fit. Just wait and see. The B747 Adv is a mod of a 40yr old a/cft and not worth a 2nd look. I'd go for all new technology any day !

Nomad  Smile


User currently offlineCol From Malaysia, joined Nov 2003, 2107 posts, RR: 22
Reply 14, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 8261 times:

BA will surprise us all by buying a 380 to replace that peice of junk they use on the JFK-MAN route.

Just my 2 cents.


User currently offlineFlyCaledonian From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2084 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 8254 times:

Nomad, I think India wouldn't be a BA A380 destination now that frequencies are being upped and all the new players entering the market. When BA finally looks at replacing its oldest 747-436s it will have several options to look at. Also, you won't see the 747-400 fleet replaced in one go, more likely a third at a time.

BA routes that could use the A380? NRT, HKG, SIN, JNB, LAX and possibly SFO. These are routes where the time windows for flight departures are limited, plus have lengthy flight times, so offering multiple daily frequencies isn't necessarily going to be a winner. Both HKG and LAX have three daily services this summer, HKG staying like that year round.

Again, as BA aims to manage capacity tightly, i.e. primary focus is premium traffic, it might be the case that BA opts to replace its earliest 747-400s with 777-300s, serving the likes of JFK, BOS, YYZ, ORD, MIA, LOS, DEL, BOM, DXB and NBO where it can add frequency if it wants, leaving the newer 747-400s to operate the truely long haul routes. Especially across the North Atlantic the 777-300 would allow BA to maintain its large premium cabins but reduce further low-yielding economy, as well as maintain a good cargo uplift.



Let's Go British Caledonian!
User currently offlineNomad From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2005, 56 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 8187 times:

FlyCaledonian ( I wish I could having worked for them for 18yrs)

Who said anything about replacing B747's. The A380 will be in addition too the B747's at least to begin with. No doubt a gradual replacement would take place. I don't think BA will stand still and wait for all the competition to acquire money making capacity aircraft whilst we lose market share do you ? Do you think it wise to watch your competitors grow fat whilst we are restricted to a meager 300 seats. That's a lot of $$$ dropping from our very pockets every day of operation. A lot of people on this forum think EK are lunatics buying 43 frames, but maybe they are right and if they are we would be eating there dust.
Therefore, if we are to order we need to do it sooner rather than later. Just my thoughts ! Lets wait and see shall we !!!!
Nomad  Wink


User currently offlineFbgdavidson From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2004, 3706 posts, RR: 28
Reply 17, posted (9 years 4 months 2 days ago) and read 8093 times:

Quoting Jamesbuk (Reply 11):
well T3 at heathrow is getting an extension for the a380 so you would have thought they would get one now that there are spaces for them starting to appear

And BA's presence in T3 being, err one flight per day!



"My first job was selling doors, door to door, that's a tough job innit" - Bill Bailey
User currently offlineDLKAPA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (9 years 4 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 8060 times:

I thought BA had always marketed themselves as a Boeing longhaul fleet. That would sort of negate the need for A380 no?

User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12138 posts, RR: 51
Reply 19, posted (9 years 4 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 8016 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 7):
I think there is a real chance they will not take the A380 in the next 20 years, maybe 10 %

I agree. BA has been very happy with their B-747s, and right now don't have a real need for the A-380.

BTW, the A-380 can only reach the 15% improvement in seat miles is when every seat is full. That will not happen all the time.


User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 971 posts, RR: 51
Reply 20, posted (9 years 4 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 8013 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 7):
I think there is a real chance they will not take the A380 in the next 20 years, maybe 10 %

Eh... more optimistic than I.

If I were a betting man, I would say 40% likely that they will get the A388 in the next 5 years. 60% likely that they will get the A388 in 10 years. BA has options and they will by no means have to go down the A380 path.

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 18):
That would sort of negate the need for A380 no?

I don't think it works that way....


User currently offlineRichard28 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2003, 1619 posts, RR: 6
Reply 21, posted (9 years 4 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 8003 times:

Quoting Fbgdavidson (Reply 17):
And BA's presence in T3 being, err one flight per day!

2 flights a day (BA207/209)- both to Miami, increasing to 3 Miami flights (with BA205) on Mondays & Saturdays.


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16862 posts, RR: 51
Reply 22, posted (9 years 4 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 7967 times:

I think British Airways and Boeing are already having discussions on a package deal for 787s, 777-300ERs, 777-200LRs and 747Advanced, the out come of these discussions probably have huge implementations on the A380 or 747Advanced future at British Airways.

Boeing has a great package with their 787 and 777s, Boeing would love to include the 747Advanced for the tri-fecta.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineA388 From Netherlands Antilles, joined May 2001, 9781 posts, RR: 11
Reply 23, posted (9 years 4 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 7924 times:

I agree with STT757, Boeing does have an attractive aircraft combination with the 787/777/747Adv. But I also think that LHR is one of the most congested airports in the world, all A380 airlines have ordered the A380 to start flights to LHR. There will just be no other choice than going for larger aircraft and the A380 is the only aircraft available for that purpose. One day I think BA will have no other choice than to go larger, just like the current A380 customers have done. The A380 is the only option to increase the number of seats at LHR unless Boeing will come up with a similarly sized aircraft, which I think is very unlikely. But like the others have said, I don't see BA ordering the A380 anytime soon. Time will tell....

A388


User currently offlineTransSwede From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 1000 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (9 years 4 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 7882 times:

Of course the big question mark is wether the 747Adv project will ever progress beyond the "paper" stage. It certainly would not be the first time Boeing has cancelled a 747 derivative.

25 DLKAPA : If boeing offers the 747A, the 787, the 777LR, and a replacement for the 737 family, they could round out their product line well into the 21st centu
26 KL911 : I think BA wil order a lot of A380's, it will come as a shock to all of us. They can use them, LHR is crowded, slots are a problem, and their NYC-LHR
27 DLKAPA : Not Necessarily. Slot costs are one thing, but CASM is also a factor. Yes, if A380 delivers on it's promise of a 15% lower CASM than 744 then BA woul
28 Avek00 : As mentioned previously, slots are NOT a major issue for BA - when they want to add flights, they just tweak their schedules. BA doesn't have a need
29 Jacobin777 : Boeing claims that the 747ADV, if made, would have lower CASM than the 380...I think Boeing will go with the 747ADV, and that might provide the extra
30 DLKAPA : I was actually under the impression that BA, JL, and HK were holding off on the A380 until a final decision was made regarding the 747ADV.
31 LH423 : I could maybe see BA buying some in the future. Although I think that it would be more for slight augmentation to the 747 rather than a replacement.
32 Commavia : No it is not. As stated in this thread, many customers -- particularly business travelers -- prefer a ubiquitous network with multiple frequencies an
33 STT757 : Not for business travelers, they want frequency.
34 LH423 : That's just it. The routes I listed are ones that are consistently full (with the exception of JFK, mostly due to the number of flights and MIA in th
35 DLKAPA : When will T5 be taken care of?
36 Gigneil : I estimate BA's chance of acquiring the A380 at some point in the next 10 years at almost 100%. BA will suffer badly with VS at their home base operat
37 Commavia : Traffic on these routes won't be moving that dramatically in that direction. Because of continued competition from LH, AF/KL, etc., BA is still -- ev
38 MKEdude : BA is pretty loyal to Boeing (long haul wise) I would expect that they would be intimately involved in the design process of, and be the launch custom
39 Speedbird2155 : T5 is scheduled to be operational from the start of the summer schedule of 2008. It will be completed about a year before that, but BA's policy is no
40 Avek00 : BA still has the slot/frequency advantage by far at LHR. While VS is stuck running one A380, BA can run 2 772s or a 744/777 combo under an optimized
41 Atlantic : This is not your average domestic route! There is a 5 hour time difference. There are just some times of the day that are better. ESPECIALLY for busi
42 Beany : Well unless anything has changed within the last 3 weeks. BA in no hurry to find 747 successor Friday April 15, 2005 In response to speculation that B
43 Donder10 : Keeping up with the Joneses will only flood the market with even more low-yield fares on some routes from LHR.Hardly a good way to increase yields or
44 PBIflyguy : Just my two cents.. but let's all put our memory caps on and and go back to the early 747 years. Back in the early 70's MANY carriers jumped on the Ju
45 Post contains images Nomad : It definitely isn't a case of keeping up with the joneses, but more a case of generating greater profits. With the A380 BA can generate greater profit
46 RJ111 : BA will watch how the plane performs in service and see if other airlines can fill it. A handful of A380's and a 773ER fleet may work best.
47 MD80Nut : I agree with RJ111, I think they will wait and see how the A380 does before ordering it. If it lives up to expectations and their competition to Austr
48 SimProgrammer : You hit the nail right on the head. As a BA shareholder I am only too aware that if BA decides not to have an A380 presence then the Airbus marketing
49 Airways6max : I think BA will eventually operate a small fleet of the A380. The A380 would do well on a small, but important number of BA's routes, such as London-T
50 Avek00 : Gimme a break - Airbus (and Boeing, for that matter) can do all of the spin it wants - the equipment type used on a flight is a virtual NON-FACTOR in
51 MD80Nut : I think BA not ordering the A380 yet has more to do with wanting to reduce it's debt now than anything else. But if the A380 lives up to the economic
52 Avek00 : I was referring to the premium hubs like LHR/NRT/LAX/HKG, where challengers (such as SQ, QF, EK, LH, AF) often find it nearly impossible to add more
53 Avek00 : Exactly, and that's why added frequency is preferable in order to schedule during these times.
54 BA380 : given my name, it would be bizarre if I did no comment - on BA's "loyalty" to Boeing.... garbage. This is business not friendship. They had a large Bo
55 Gigneil : I'd love to see that indicator... EK is planning a 459 seat version of the craft. That's a pretty extreme amount of legroom for nothing but seats. Ev
56 LH423 : Right. It's not the US that BA would primarily be concerned with. BA more than have the North American market locked up and no one can touch them. Al
57 Jacobin777 : as a shareholder, not me...unless BA can convince me the cost is justifiable .....he will now longer be in charge in the next couple of months Higher
58 Post contains links Avek00 : "We can't play around with revenue-earning capability," Emirates President Tim Clark said in an interview last year. "We bought the aircraft on a seat
59 STT757 : BA has an advantage over all of them, they have the most slots at Heathrow. Same with ANA and JAL, they have plenty of slots at NRT. It's the airline
60 Post contains images Nomad : It's not just the slot issues at LHR or any other slot restricted airport. It's the operating cost's of running two or more aircraft on one route is e
61 Keesje : I have the feeling many airlines (Emirates, Quantas, Singapore Airlines) filled their aA380´s with 450-550 seats. I think with current 747 like econ
62 Scotron11 : Average age of BA 744s is 10.9yrs of which they have 53, and the 767 is 12.2yrs of which they have 21, so there is no "urgency" to replace them immedi
63 Avek00 : Yes, most likely by upgrading the product on its *existing* fleet, not by buying a plane it doesn't want or need for "prestige" reasons - that mental
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