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Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?  
User currently offlineRJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9147 times:

Now that NW has placed their large 787s order, do you think they will be more willing to order the 777 for their Pacific operation when the time comes?

About a year ago, many A.netters (including some whom I respect very much) were downright laughing at the prospect of NW ordering the 787. But now that NW has proven what many of us have been saying for a while (that commonality is overrated), does anybody think they might go for a triple 7?

Also, does anybody have a link to the report of NW's 333 vs 777 analysis for their Atlantic operation?

Thanks.

48 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1596 posts, RR: 17
Reply 1, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9123 times:

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
they will be more willing to order the 777

Not anytime soon... maybe when the time comes to replace the A333 in 2025... lol... they will go for a new generation 777. They are very happy with the Airbus A333...

But who knows when they have to replace the 747's??? they may opt for the 773ER.



Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineB742 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2005, 3768 posts, RR: 19
Reply 2, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9115 times:

I hope they opt. for the 747ADV rather than the 773ER, but any order would be nice!

Rob!


User currently offlineLemurs From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1439 posts, RR: 4
Reply 3, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9087 times:

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 1):
Not anytime soon... maybe when the time comes to replace the A333 in 2025... lol... they will go for a new generation 777. They are very happy with the Airbus A333...

But who knows when they have to replace the 747's??? they may opt for the 773ER.

I thought they still operated 742s at the moment. Wouldn't the 773ER make a better 1:1 replacement than the 333? (I don't know what routes they operate on, so who knows...)



There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those that don't.
User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9079 times:

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
Also, does anybody have a link to the report of NW's 333 vs 777 analysis for their Atlantic operation?

Keep in mind that they restricted their analysis primarily to the PW4000 powered versions of A333, 772A, and 772ER.

Depending on who they choose to engine their 787s, their perspective on the T7 could change as well.


User currently offlineB742 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2005, 3768 posts, RR: 19
Reply 5, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9046 times:

Is the NWA mainline fleet all powered by PW (except A320's)?

A320 CFM?
757-200 PW
757-300 PW
A330-200 PW
A330-300 PW
DC-10-30 ??
747-200 ??
747-400 ??

Rob!


User currently offlineUnited_Fan From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 7496 posts, RR: 7
Reply 6, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 8998 times:

DC-10-30's are all GE powered.......


'Empathy was yesterday...Today, you're wasting my Mother-F'ing time' - Heat.
User currently offlineChiawei From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 944 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8916 times:

all NW 747 are PW powered.
DC-10-20(40) are PW powered

DC-10-30 are GE powered.


User currently offlineJano From Slovakia, joined Jan 2004, 827 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8842 times:

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
Also, does anybody have a link to the report of NW's 333 vs 777 analysis for their Atlantic operation?

I do not have the link, but here is the report:


Perspective on NW's Recent Selection of the A330 of
777

By Tim Campbell, Managing Director- Performance
Analysis

From On Course, Northwest Fligiht Operations Magazine
May/June 2001

The January February issue of On Course contained an
article by Capt. Jeff Carlson that outlined the
details of Northwest's multibillion-dollar ivestment
in new aircraft. A large component of this order
includes 24 PW4168A-powered A330-300s. Numerous
questions have arisen since the announcement of this
order, specifically why the A330 was selected instead
of the 777.

This article will address these questions by
summarizing our assessment of the performance
characteristics of the A330 relative to the 777 and
how this onformation was used in the final evaluation
of these two aircraft.

The competition between the 777 and A330 was for a new
aircraft taht would replace our DC-10-30s on dedicated
transatlantic missions.

Perhaps the most important performance-related aspect
of this aircraft evaluation was finding the best match
between aircraft payload-range capability and
forcasted payload demand. We were seeking an aircraft
that efficiently meets our projected requirements. As
shown in the graphs, the A330 most optimally meets our
payload requirements in the Atlantic. This payload
capability, when coupleted with operating costs and
projected market requirements (demand) for both
passenger and cargo traffic, offers the highest
earnings potential.

The match between capability and market requirements
is important because it is inefficient to operate
aicraft with excess capbality. Our evaluation clearly
shows that the 777-200ER aircraft has significantly
more payload-range capability than the A330-300.

The additional range capability could be helpful if
the same aircraft were also flown across the Pacific.
However this possible dual mission capability was
determined to be impractical because Pacific aircraft
require a much greater share of World Business Class
seats than Atlantic aircraft. Furthermore, the Pratt
powered 777-200ER could not fly many critical Pacific
missions with full passenger load, and most missions
required weight limits on cargo.

This is not necessarily apparent if one looks from the
generic marketing material from Boeing because the
range of the 777-200, evaluated with Northwest rules
and interiors, is approximately 1,100 miles less than
advertised.

The 777 can carry more seats than the A330 although
the A330 already carries 29 more seats than our
current DC-10-30s. The optimal 777-200 configuration
we modeled had 27 more seats tahn the A330-300
(329-302) and 56 seats more than the DC-10-30
(329-273). However, these additional seats were
economy seats taht typically would be filled with
lower yielding passengers.

The 777 has the same empty weight for all available
MTOW's (580,000-656,000 lbs). Northwest requires only
the lowest weight for nearly all markets, roughly
comparable to the A330. The net result to Northwest is
that the 777 is more than 41,000 pounds heavier than
the A330 yet provides minimal additional revenue
capacity.

The heavier weight of the 777 translates directly into
a fuel burn penalty. On a typical 3,500 nm mission,
the A330 burns approximately 28% less fuel tahn a
DC-10-30; accounting for its higher seating capacity,
it burns 35% less on a per seat basis. The much
heavier 777 burns approximately 16% more fuel than the
A330 on a per trip basis, and 6% more on a per seat
basis.

Questions have arisen about the cruise speed of the
A330, largely due to issues surrounding the cruise
speed of the A340. NW intends to operate the A330 at a
cruise speed of Mach 0.82. This speed corresponds to
the aircraft's LRC (long range cruise) Mach number for
most gross weight/altitude combinations. While the
published cruise speed of the A340 is Mach 0.82, our
analysis substantiates the experience of line pilots
taht certain operators fly slower to avoid excessive
fuel burn. Airbus has implicitly recognized the cruise
speed issue with the "first generation" A340's by
redesigning the wing on the A340-500 and -600.

757/767 DC10-30 A330 777/747-200
Cruise speed .80 .82 .82 .84


As shown in the table, the A33's cruise speed is
slower than the 777, but it is consisten with our
DC-10-30 and faster than other aircraft operating
accross the Atlantic. The cruise speed differences
between the 777 and A330 equiates to a trip length
difference of approximately 10 minutes on a typical
Atlantic mission. It may be interesting to note that
Northwest negotiated stringent, comprehensive
contractual commitments from Airbus to ensure the A330
will meet our performance expectations both at the
time of deliever and for several years thereafter.
This is a requirement we make of airframe/engine
manufacturers, including Boeing. The performance level
of the new 757-300's has a similar level of
protection. Our agreementwith Airbus also provides us
with mission flexibility we could not achieve with
Boeing. The Airbus agreement is structured to allow us
to take delivery of other members of the A330 family
if our requirements change over time. A shorter
memeber of the A330 family, the A330-200, has 257
seats in the Northwest configuration. It has
approximately 900 nm more range than the A330-300.
This added flexibility to tailor capacity to market
requirements not offered by the 777 since Boeing was
unwilling to formally offer a smaller, lower priced
version of the 777.

In summary, the excess capacity of the 777 leads to
operating economics inferior to the A330. This
situations is further degraded when the notably higher
puchase price of the 777 is factored into the
analysis. The marginal improvement in revenue the
777's size offers simply cannot overcome its increased
operating and ownership costs. Our atlantic
replacement decision does not mean that the 777 will
be excluded from future aircraft competitions. The
longer range version of hte 777-200 and 777-300 will
be evaluated against the A340-500 and A340-600 when we
begin the 747-200 replacement analysis.



The Widget Air Line :)
User currently offlineMauriceB From Netherlands, joined Aug 2004, 2490 posts, RR: 25
Reply 9, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8812 times:

no, the artikel about the NWA 787 order , claims that the 787 order, among the January A330 order, will replace the last DC-10's and 747-200... i don't see any 777 order anytime soon... maybe in the far future with newer generation 777's order bigger 787's to replace the 747-400 and , when there time is done, 757's....

User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26499 posts, RR: 75
Reply 10, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8797 times:

Quoting B742 (Reply 5):
DC-10-30 ??

The fact that is says -30 means GE power. NW and JL launched the DC-10-40 that was PW powered

Quoting B742 (Reply 5):
747-200 ??

PW JT9D

Quoting B742 (Reply 5):
747-400 ??

PW4056

Quoting B742 (Reply 5):
A320 CFM?

Yes, they were teaching PW/IAE a lesson on that one

Quoting Chiawei (Reply 7):
DC-10-20(40) are PW powered

They retired the DC-10-40s as they were the oldest, shortest ranged in the fleet. The 753 replaced them



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineCORULEZ05 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8749 times:

I highly doubt it since they are ordering the 787. Although, the new livery would look AWESOME on the 777. I think NW made a good move by ordering the 787 and with all the Airbus planes coming in, I think they are set for awhile. Now if the would only retired those pesky DC-9'S!!!!

User currently offlineJano From Slovakia, joined Jan 2004, 827 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8718 times:

Quoting CORULEZ05 (Reply 11):
Now if the would only retired those pesky DC-9'S!!!!

Why would they do that? Do you know how much it would cost to replace 150+ airframes? DC9s are here to stay for now Big grin ...and that's a good thing!



The Widget Air Line :)
User currently offlineRJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8701 times:

Quoting Jano (Reply 8):
The
longer range version of hte 777-200 and 777-300 will
be evaluated against the A340-500 and A340-600 when we
begin the 747-200 replacement analysis.

Ahhh, nice! Anybody know when NW will need to start looking at aircraft to replace their 742s? Would 773As with Pratts work well for NW? It seems like they would be MUCH better off with 772ERs and 773ERs with GE engines......


User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26499 posts, RR: 75
Reply 14, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8641 times:

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 13):
Would 773As with Pratts work well for NW?

Not enough range and it would be a capacity reduction

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 13):
Anybody know when NW will need to start looking at aircraft to replace their 742s?

Well, they are pretty much only used for charters, HNL-NRT and LAX-NRT. NW has stated that used 744s are their favored option for 742 replacement



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 15, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 8563 times:

I am not sure why some think because NW ordered 787s they will now go out and purchase 777s as well - I do not see the connection.

NW has ordered an adequate amount of A330s to replace the DC10-30 fleet, they may be a handful of A330s short to complete the DC10 replacement program, depending on expansion over the next few years (say the long rumored MSP-CDG flight or going year round on the DTW-FCO flight) and depending on how NW operates is Hawaiian flights (will the SEA-HNL route stay with a DC10 or go back to 753 or double daily 753 equipment and how NW handles the DTW-HNL and MSP-HNL routes). I project that about 5 DC10-30s will remain in the NW fleet even after the A330 deliveries are complete - not a problem really as NW has about 5 rather new DC10s that were built in the very late 1980s.

As the 18 787s which are on firm order are delivered to NW, the last of the DC10s will finally be retired and NW will start reallocating aircraft: I would predict that most routes to/from AMS will go with the A333s, other European destinations will be flown with A332s, and the A330s will make an appearance on some Hawaiian routes. The 744s will of course remain on high-demand transpacific routes with 787s taking over "thin" transpacific routes from the A332 as well as opening up many new routes that will bypass Tokyo and Osaka....I think that we will see many new nonstops out of Detroit to destinations in China, some out of MSP and maybe even routes like SEA-HKG will make a comeback when the 787s arrive.

I dont see where NW "needs" the 772 or 773 at the moment.....NW is not going to introduce yet another type to its fleet. At some point, I think that NW may acquire between 4 and 6 additional 747-400s for its Pacific services - I know that NW has looked before and not made a move, but in the next few years I think that attractive deals will be available on good PW powered 744s that NW could add to its fleet (this may happen as some airlines, like SQ, begin accepting delivery of additional 773s and A380s).


User currently offlineLemurs From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1439 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 8515 times:

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 15):
I dont see where NW "needs" the 772 or 773 at the moment.....NW is not going to introduce yet another type to its fleet. At some point, I think that NW may acquire between 4 and 6 additional 747-400s for its Pacific services - I know that NW has looked before and not made a move, but in the next few years I think that attractive deals will be available on good PW powered 744s that NW could add to its fleet (this may happen as some airlines, like SQ, begin accepting delivery of additional 773s and A380s).

Again, the one that seems to be brushed aside in this is the 742, except in the article quoted about from NW themselves saying they're evaluate the 777 alongside the 340 as replacement craft for them. Neither the 788/789 nor the 332/333 are even remotely 1:1 replacements for a 742.

Now, I can understand if NW doesn't really see the gap between the 787/330 and 744's in their fleet as something that needs replacing directly with another type, but I'd at least like to know why...



There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those that don't.
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 978 posts, RR: 51
Reply 17, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 8492 times:

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 15):
I dont see where NW "needs" the 772 or 773 at the moment.....

Kind of stating the obvious, given that NW didn't order the 777 with the 787 in a package as other airlines have done. However, if NW does look for growth aircraft in the future, the 772LR, 777F, and 773ER are now much more appealing products. A Boeing order is much less far-fetched than it was 18 months ago.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 15):
I am not sure why some think because NW ordered 787s they will now go out and purchase 777s as well - I do not see the connection.

Like I said above, if NW wanted 777, they would have ordered them with the 787. I think we are in agreement here. But like I said above, given the compelling economics and broader scope of the 777LR series (versus the A340NG) in addition to re-established Boeing relations... if NW looks for an aircraft in this niche in the future, it's all but garunteed to go Boeing.


User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 18, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 8449 times:

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 16):

Again, the one that seems to be brushed aside in this is the 742, except in the article quoted about from NW themselves saying they're evaluate the 777 alongside the 340 as replacement craft for them. Neither the 788/789 nor the 332/333 are even remotely 1:1 replacements for a 742.

Now, I can understand if NW doesn't really see the gap between the 787/330 and 744's in their fleet as something that needs replacing directly with another type, but I'd at least like to know why...

The article above is from 2001, when NW made the decision to go with the A330 over the 777 for transatlantic operations - since then, many things have happened (in addition to the world and the airline industry drastically changing): NW revised its A333 order to include some A332s which have taken over Pacific services (that was really never anticipated), NW seems to have bought into Boeing's fragmentation theory concerning the Pacific meaning more frequency and more flights to more destinations on smaller aircraft (as evidenced by the huge number of 787 orders and options), and NW has signed up for the 787, an aircraft with capabilities not available back in 2001.

Thus, while I do see your point about the 742s, I think that the replacement of those aircraft may become a non-issue when looking at the big picture. This is why I do not see NW adding A340s or 777s to their fleet; that being said, NW may buy a small number of 744s on the second hand market as prices for the 744 soften in the coming years.

Thats my theory, I could be all wrong.


User currently offlineBurnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7546 posts, RR: 8
Reply 19, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 8413 times:

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):

About a year ago, many A.netters (including some whom I respect very much) were downright laughing at the prospect of NW ordering the 787.

Yeah, and i got torn apart for saying that they would order it.

"NW wont order, they will opt for the A350 blah blah blah"

Quoting CORULEZ05 (Reply 11):
Now if the would only retired those pesky DC-9'S!!!!

Why, dont be jealous because CO retired them Big grin



"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009
User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26499 posts, RR: 75
Reply 20, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 8398 times:

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 19):
Why, dont be jealous because CO retired them

Hahahahaha, that is the funniest way anyone has dealt with that yet.



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineBurnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7546 posts, RR: 8
Reply 21, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 8383 times:

Quoting N1120A (Reply 20):
Hahahahaha, that is the funniest way anyone has dealt with that yet.

Glad you liked it

and uh

DC-9's FOREVER!!! Big grinD



"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009
User currently offline777ER From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 12170 posts, RR: 17
Reply 22, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 8145 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Considering NW have no A340s in their fleet and the B777 is a direct competitior to the A340 then maybe B777s will be ordered instead of A340s

User currently offlineJetjack74 From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 7410 posts, RR: 50
Reply 23, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 8018 times:
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It all comes down to price. NW is price-conscious airline. They went for the A330 because Airbus gave them to us for a song with the attractive financing. Boeing was less-than chivalrous. It's all about price. Boeing is realising that almost anything is possible as far as regaining customers. If Boeing really wants to sell NW the 777, they'll find a way.


Made from jets!
User currently offlineClrd4t8koff From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (9 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7957 times:

Quoting Jano (Reply 12):
Why would they do that? Do you know how much it would cost to replace 150+ airframes? DC9s are here to stay for now ...and that's a good thing!

This might be an ignorant thing to say, but all it's going take is for one of those suckers to go down because of how old they're getting and watch NW re-think how easy it will be to replace 150+ airframes after they are all grounded by the FAA. They are flying some DC-9's that are 30+ years in age, and yes, while they did re-do the interiors, they are still old. But, if NW is making $$ of them, then I hope they are at least investing some of it to maintain STRICT maintenance on those antique jets, lol.


25 KC135R : Yeah, I don't know if they would or should buy it, but I think the T7 would look great in the new livery too. I'm sure you say that jokingly, but eit
26 Atmx2000 : They wouldn't order 772As or ERs. They could order 773ERs for serving South East Asia or India.
27 Lemurs : Your theory makes very good sense, given the facts, thanks! Another thing I thought of is that they might want to see how the 787-10 and 350-9 play o
28 NLINK : I think it would be good somewhere down the road if NW ordered the 777-300ER as a 747-400 replacement, then convert some of the replaced 747-400 to Fr
29 KC135R : That is certainly a good possibility, judging by the past. According to airfleets.net, NW currently flies 21 DC-10's (30's and 30ER's) ALL of those w
30 DALfanNYC : How many 787's did NWA order??
31 KC135R : 18 firm - options and purchase rights for 50 more.
32 NW727251ADV : What are you basing this on...particularly the last sentence. "MUCH better off with 777ERs and 773ERs" based on what performance data you've gathered
33 RJpieces : Hmmm, how about GE winning every new 777 order in the past few years except for Air New Zealand? GE engines have proven their superiority for longhau
34 NW727251ADV : AGAIN...NW SPECIFICALLY STATED why they will not be ordering the 777 anytime so IF EVER. It really had nothing to do with Atlantic or Pacific operati
35 RJpieces : Try reading NW's report: Our atlantic replacement decision does not mean that the 777 will be excluded from future aircraft competitions. The longer
36 United Airline : NW is unlikely to replace their B 747-400 ANYTIME soon. Maybe in 2025! : D I guess they will replace them with B 747 Advanced when it comes to replace
37 The777Man : I agree that NW may very well order 777-300ER and perhaps sooner rather than later. The 777-300ER is a very good replacement for the 747-400s. Event i
38 PM : I wouldn't be too sure. There isn't much between the 773ER and the A346. NW's A330s are likely to be around for a long time (not to mention the A320s
39 RJpieces : What do you mean by this? The fact that they'll have to get new engines with either the 346 or 773ER makes it more likely that they'll order the 773E
40 N1120A : One of the main reasons they chose not to pick up 772ERs because PW powered 772ERs are restricted to 646,000 lbs. MTOW, while Trent and GE-90 powered
41 RJ111 : ....and avaliable cargo capacity IIRC.
42 ConcordeBoy : ...um, you must not've been reading the same report as the rest of us Not necessarily. Post 2006, if they can make a compelling approval case to Airb
43 PM : RJpieces Each of the points in your last reply (#39) assumes that the 773ER is demonstrably superior to the A346. Many believe that (and many want to
44 N1120A : Thanks Fred. I got lazy and just subtracted 10,000 Since the PW4000 is already in the power range needed for the A345/A346, it should not be too much
45 BlackKnight : It seems NW is validating the Boeing model of the market. Bigger is not better. Maybe the same reason the 777 lost to the A330 is the same reason the
46 PM : There are indeed but they aren't selling well these days. As for the A346, I doubt if it's as simple as you say to hang a PW4000 under the wing. If i
47 N1120A : I agree that this is not such a simple thing, but the PW4000 does do quite well on more than just 747/767s. They also use it up to 98,000 pounds (gra
48 PM : Oh yes, many of the PW4000 range are fine engines and they have sold well. But to customise a new version for the A346 wouldn't be easy, quick or che
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