TACAA320 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 1, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 1024 times:
Sounds great. All three are good airlines. Just two questions: 1) Are MX and AM still for sale? 2) Is the CO decision a real one or just pure speculation? [I'm not sure about this point since I feel some grade of "doubts" about this point in another thread].
I believe they are. IIRC, the head of CINTRA was in Texas a few weeks ago talking about foreign investment opportunities in Mexico, and AM and MX specifically. I think the Mexican government is smart to be getting serious about privatizing both companies so they can effectively compete with each other and new entrants in the internal Mexican market.
Nobody knows for sure. There was speculation last week in a Reuters article that CO is exploring their options regarding selling assets like their remaining 8.5% stake in ExpressJet, Continental Micronesia division and their 49% holding in Copa. If CO is going to sell its CM stake, it is almost certain that a deal is not imminent, but could happen down the road.
EddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7253 posts, RR: 45 Reply 3, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days ago) and read 993 times:
As mentioned, AM and MX will be sold separately and it is going to be very difficult for the new owners of each airline to embark in another acquisition, especially CM's, because it would command a high price due to the company's profitability and growth prospects. That said, it would be an awesome complement to AM's route network because both carriers operate 737NG planes and it would finally give AM real presence in Central and South America. I guess the only shot is that CO takes this slowly so that whoever acquires AM or MX has time to put together some money to make the purchase. The possibility, in my opinion, is very, very remote.
One last thing I was forgetting. whoever acquires CO's stake in CM would be acquiring only a 49% stake since the remaining 51% is in the hands of Panamanian investors.
AR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 4926 posts, RR: 27 Reply 5, posted (8 years 1 month 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 966 times:
Following on EddieDude's line of thinking and of TACAA320, I also think it would be a great acquisition for CINTRA as a group. I believe if MX or AM go at it separately they won't have the cash or the know-how for such an operation (Aeroperu comes to mind) I think it should definitely be a CINTRA acquisition. If such a possibility comes to fruition, it can even be worth post-poning AM and MX's privatization so can CINTRA go and acquire CM.
Now, about owning just 49% I don't think that is a problem as long as the final arrangement gives CINTRA at least some decisive management control. Anybody knows what's the deal with CO?.
I insist, someone should go and wake CINTRA up to this opportunity, if it becomes available. Unfortunately, at this point it might be just a dreamy speculation.
2travel2know From Panama, joined Apr 2005, 3580 posts, RR: 4 Reply 6, posted (8 years 1 month 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 956 times:
I belive CM panamanian owners - Grupo Motta - does have the first option for those 49% that they sold to CO a couple of years ago.
When looking for cash and alliances, the CM owners studied who would be more beneficial for them and won't bother over the control of the company, CO was the best at that time.
If Grupo Motta wants, they would buy that 49% from CO rightaway and sell some % to other investors themselves.
After they purchased 85% of Colombia's Aerorepublica, that airline means a lot to CM now, but isn't as much important as keeping those 49% away from potential hostile partners.
I don't see CM looking forward to have its stock in hands of CINTRA.
Maybe they will let Aerorepublica go mexican instead?
EddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7253 posts, RR: 45 Reply 7, posted (8 years 1 month 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 928 times:
It sounds very logical that Grupo Motta might want to exercise their option to acquire the 49% it doesn't already own.
On the other hand, even though CM would be a good complement to AM, I think CINTRA will never embark in another acquisition. The only reason why CINTRA exists at the moment is to sell AM and MX at a price as high as possible. Once CINTRA has divested of all its assets it will liquidate.