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Will The B772LRF Speed Up The Closure Of 744 Line?  
User currently offlineKeesje From Netherlands, joined Apr 2001, 9877 posts, RR: 51
Posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2281 times:

- Most 747-400 backlog are mainly freighters (-F's, ERF's)
- The 772LRF is said to offer superior payload/range performace & economics compared to the 744F/ERF's.

On top of that, many 747-400 are waiting to be converted into Special Freighters costing 1/4 the price of a new 744F/ERF.

Boeing no doubt made a carefull trade-off between the potential of B777-200LRF sales versus the influence this would have on the 747-400 line.

Not a good ay for the 747-400 (adv) line IMO.


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25 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 2183 times:

According to the Seattle Times, the 777LRF will not hurt the 747 program too much:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...echnology/2002286070_boeing24.html

User currently offlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 3850 posts, RR: 15
Reply 2, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2157 times:

..and if the 747ADV is launched, that freighter version will carry approximately 135 tons and has the big advantage of nose loading capability, which neither the A380F, 777LRF and 744SF conversions have.


Kole Feut un' 'nen steiffen Wind gifft 'nen krusen Buedel un' 'nen luetten Pint
User currently offlineRevelation From United States, joined Feb 2005, 4003 posts, RR: 4
Reply 3, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2140 times:

Another "doom and gloom for Boeing" thread from Keesje - I'm shocked!

You can look at it as a good day for the 747 line: because the 777LRF is so good, they will have to launch the 747Adv to keep it a step ahead.

[Edited 2005-05-24 13:14:26]


Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineSolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 204 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2128 times:

I´m never shocked when it comes to A vs B, freighter versions etc.etc.etc.etc. Dont tell me you are Revelation?

*sigh*

Micke/SE  Yeah sure


Airbus SAS - Love them both
User currently offlineRevelation From United States, joined Feb 2005, 4003 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2108 times:

Now, now, I didn't bring A into it at all... But you are right, it only took a few posts for at least one oblique reference to A...  Smile


Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineSolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 204 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2088 times:

Approx.130 777LRF in the next 20 years, sounds great. It got a big belly that twinner!

Micke//SE  Wink  Big grin


Airbus SAS - Love them both
User currently offlineKeesje From Netherlands, joined Apr 2001, 9877 posts, RR: 51
Reply 7, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2078 times:

AF ordered 744ERF's during the last few years. Instead of expanding this fleet they now order 5x777LRF and convert 3x744 to SF's.

Quoting N79969 (Reply 1):
According to the Seattle Times, the 777LRF will not hurt the 747 program too much:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm....html

 Confused

Quotes from this article
- The (777) freighter version will carry 101 metric tons of cargo a distance of 5,200 nautical miles. In comparison, the popular freighter version of Boeing's jumbo jet, the 747-400, can carry 113 metric tons over 4,450 miles.

- The 777 will offer twin-engine efficiency and lower fuel consumption than the jumbo jet, and could be the preferred choice on some long-range routes with smaller cargo needs


User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States, joined May 2004, 1565 posts, RR: 17
Reply 8, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 1947 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 7):
Confused

But you also forget to post, from this very same article the following:

"Air Cargo Management Group's market forecast is based on an assumption that Boeing also will soon launch the new derivative of its jumbo, the 747 Advanced, and that this too will have a freighter version later.

If Boeing failed to launch that airplane — which would be a surprise — the market for the 777 freighter would be even bigger. "


--So their is room for both... The 747Adv Freighter is bigger plane than the 744 and also the 747Adv Passanger version.


Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineKeesje From Netherlands, joined Apr 2001, 9877 posts, RR: 51
Reply 9, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 1880 times:

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 8):
"Air Cargo Management Group's market forecast is based on an assumption that Boeing also will soon launch the new derivative of its jumbo, the 747 Advanced, and that this too will have a freighter version later.

If Boeing failed to launch that airplane — which would be a surprise — the market for the 777 freighter would be even bigger. "


--So their is room for both... The 747Adv Freighter is bigger plane than the 744 and also the 747Adv Passanger version.

Boeing has a backlog of 29 747-400s left to build, of which 20 are freighters.

But Boeing needs some potential 747 Advanced customers to step up and order additional 747-400s as a "bridge" to the new jumbo, Bell said.

Boeing has said the 747 Advanced would be ready to enter service in 2009 should the program get the go-ahead from the Boeing board.

Earlier this week, Boeing announced that General Electric will be the sole supplier of engines on the 747 Advanced should the plane be developed.

If it's not, the 747 line in Everett is likely to be closed, possibly as soon as late next year.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/221948_boeingearns28.html

summarizing. .


**Boeing has decided to offer a better freighter (7772LRF) then the 744, but still needs 747-400 (likely also freighters) sales in the next few years as a bridge to the new 744 Adv.**


At the same time they invested in the 744 SF conversion business.

IMO Boeing made a difficult trade-off between 744Adv feasibility and 772LRF prospects. Which is the right thing IMO.

User currently offlineNYC777 From United States, joined Jun 2004, 4295 posts, RR: 46
Reply 10, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 1867 times:
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IN A WORD.....NO!!!!!!  sarcastic 


That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States, joined May 2004, 1565 posts, RR: 17
Reply 11, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 1835 times:

Again, the 747Adv offers more capacity and more efficient engines... these are the main selling points for the 747Adv. 777 can't match the loadingc capability/capacity/efficiency/MTOW nor can the 744F or 744SF for that matter.

The 747Adv is a go... not only for pride reasons, but it will be a solid performer and a natural upgrade for the current 742 and 744 base.


Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineKeesje From Netherlands, joined Apr 2001, 9877 posts, RR: 51
Reply 12, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 1805 times:

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 11):
The 747Adv is a go... not only for pride reasons, but it will be a solid performer and a natural upgrade for the current 742 and 744 base.

Pride won't fill the line until 2009.

User currently offlineNorCal From United States, joined Mar 2005, 1609 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 1770 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
Pride won't fill the line until 2009.

No, but I bet some cheap (at cost or maybe for a slight loss) orders will fill the 744 line.


"Rapid decompression leads to involuntary exiting of the Aircraft"
User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States, joined May 2004, 1565 posts, RR: 17
Reply 14, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 2 days ago) and read 1724 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
Pride won't fill the line until 2009.

Make a bet??? Boeing can do whatever they please as long as your willing to take a loss, and have money to cover the loss.

As NorCal mentioned you can sell those slots at cost or a loss just so that the line is rolling...


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/225494_boefreighter24.html

"As a freighter, the 747 Advanced would be able to haul about 134 metric tons of cargo."

Cheers!

Ric


Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineKeesje From Netherlands, joined Apr 2001, 9877 posts, RR: 51
Reply 15, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 1541 times:

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 14):
As NorCal mentioned you can sell those slots at cost or a loss just so that the line is rolling...

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/225494_boefreighter24.html

"As a freighter, the 747 Advanced would be able to haul about 134 metric tons of cargo."

Cheers!

Ric

- I doubt Boeing is looking for selling aircraft under cost price for years
- The great specs of the 744adv won´t help keep open the line until 2009 (earliest). Bell tells us it is neccesary to fill the line until 2009.

User currently offlineNorCal From United States, joined Mar 2005, 1609 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 1514 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 15):
- I doubt Boeing is looking for selling aircraft under cost price for years

No they probably won't sell many at a loss, but they might sell them at cost or offer them in packages along with the 777 at a very nice discounted price. The article you provided did mention that airlines are still interested in both the 777F and the 744F (well at least accoring to Boeing, but who knows if that is true  Wink)

If they are serious about the 747Adv and have enough orders, they will find a way to keep the line open. Paris will have all tha answers


"Rapid decompression leads to involuntary exiting of the Aircraft"
User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States, joined May 2004, 1565 posts, RR: 17
Reply 17, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 1450 times:

Direct quote from the following link:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuot...05-05-24_20-46-59_n24305393_newsml

"In the past, the airplane manufacturer has indicated that a decision on whether to produce the 747 Advanced -- which would be slightly larger, fly further and be more fuel efficient than its predecessor -- depends largely on whether it can keep the existing 747 production line open.

Thanks in part for demand for cargo versions of the jumbo jet, it now looks more likely that will happen, Mulally said."


Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineKeesje From Netherlands, joined Apr 2001, 9877 posts, RR: 51
Reply 18, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 640 times:


With the 777 freighter poised to eat into the 747 freighter market, Boeing now must either upgrade the 747 or end production.

"You either move it up in the market or get rid of it," he said. "This increases the need to make an improve-the-product-or-fold-the-program decision."

Analyst Paul Nesbit of JSA Research thinks Boeing will scrap its plans for the 747 Advanced and end jumbo-jet production.

"The demand for it would be fairly weak," he said. "My guess is that we'll never see another 747 model."

http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/05/05/25/100bus_corliss001.cfm

Seems to confirm the original post's 772LRF vs 744Adv issue.

User currently offlineIkramerica From United States, joined May 2005, 18437 posts, RR: 60
Reply 19, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 638 times:

is 1 a month enough? if so, they have up through 2007 covered. Just would need to sell about 15 between now and then, which would seem possible (6 sales a year, including 3 for the remainder of this year), even if a few had to be sold at loss or packaged with some 747ADV discounts.


Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlinePANAM_DC10 From Australia, joined Aug 2000, 3081 posts, RR: 89
Reply 20, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 613 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
COMMUNITY MANAGER

It is a good thing that Mr Nisbet doesn't work for Boeing

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Boeing Co. is optimistic that it will get enough orders for its aging 767 and 747 jets to continue production past this year, the chief executive of its commercial aircraft unit said on Tuesday.

"We're very pleasantly surprised," Alan Mulally said when asked at a company conference for analysts and investors about ongoing demand for the two aircraft which are both expected to be replaced by newer models in coming years. "

"Thanks in part for demand for cargo versions of the jumbo jet, it now looks more likely that will happen, Mulally said.

"It's not over yet for the 747," he added. "


Sourced thanks to Jacobin777 in this thread
http://www.airliners.net/discussions...eneral_aviation/read.main/2131221/

Regards


Ask the impossible to achieve the best possible
User currently offlineScotron11 From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2004, 1124 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 585 times:
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Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):

But Boeing needs some potential 747 Advanced customers to step up and order additional 747-400s as a "bridge" to the new jumbo, Bell said.

That's the problem. Boeing are also doing the same with the 767, marketing it as an interim solution to those airlines who plan to purchase the 787.

All they say is they will make up their minds in the summer. This saga of the 747ADV is getting worse than that of the UAL bankruptcy!!

User currently offlineKeesje From Netherlands, joined Apr 2001, 9877 posts, RR: 51
Reply 22, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 569 times:

"It's not over yet for the 747," he added. "

Convincing..

User currently offlineCarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2311 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 537 times:

Boeing will be finished with production of 747 & 767 in 2007.
747Adv is only lukewarm to the market.

User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States, joined May 2004, 1565 posts, RR: 17
Reply 24, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 485 times:

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 21):
This saga of the 747ADV is getting worse than that of the UAL bankruptcy!!

I'm not sure why youre losing sleep over this. Take some ambiam or some drug because honeslty it's not that different from previous launches...

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 21):
Boeing will be finished with production of 747 & 767 in 2007.
747Adv is only lukewarm to the market.

and you know this.... how? you must have the 'Bat Phone' that dials directly to Boeing?


Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineScotron11 From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2004, 1124 posts, RR: 3
Reply 25, posted (4 years 6 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 451 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 24):

I'm not sure why youre losing sleep over this

Eh?

As to the 2nd, I never even posted it. Go check.

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