Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?  
User currently offlineMonteycarlos From Australia, joined Mar 2005, 2107 posts, RR: 28
Posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8825 times:

Reading this in ATW Online today:

"A380, which completed its ninth test flight over the weekend, has exceeded its fuel burn goals, Airbus sources told ATWOnline. While coy on confirming the results, a spokesperson told this website that the aircraft is having a near-perfect flight test program. During the flights, some of which have lasted 8 hr., the A380 has been flown to an altitude of 43,000 ft. and at speeds up to Mach 0.89. Airbus plans to unveil the second A380 sporting a Singapore Airlines livery "shortly." Despite the positive A380 news, Cathay Pacific is still leaning toward the 747ADV and 777-300ER for its fleet growth/replacement order, which is expected in July, sources at the airline said. The fleet replacement plans currently call for its three A340-600s, leased from ILFC, to be replaced by 747ADVs.


by Geoffrey Thomas
"

Is this going to be a mere formality for CX or do Airbus stand a chance of winning another A380 (or other variant) order?

I don't want to get into the issue of media portrayal as this article has shown, but IMO CX will definatly place a Boeing order from what has been coming out of CX officials.

Is this the launch of the 747 Advance officially coming up?

Cheers!


It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
66 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFlying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4161 posts, RR: 36
Reply 1, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8770 times:

I would actually still see this one as being wide-open with no pre-decision being made so far.


Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
User currently offlineN754pr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8745 times:

They will not be the launch customer.

User currently offlineMonteycarlos From Australia, joined Mar 2005, 2107 posts, RR: 28
Reply 3, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8727 times:

Quoting N754pr (Reply 2):
They will not be the launch customer.

Why not? Do they want to see how it goes or will they not expose themselves to the risk of operating this aircraft as the launch customer?

I think they would get a very good deal (as QF did for the 744ER).



It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
User currently offlineArtsyman From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 4745 posts, RR: 34
Reply 4, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8703 times:

Quoting Monteycarlos (Thread starter):
"A380, which completed its ninth test flight over the weekend, has exceeded its fuel burn goals, Airbus sources told ATWOnline. While coy on confirming the results, a spokesperson told this website that the aircraft is having a near-perfect flight test program.

Yet after almost every flight it takes, they push the delivery date back further and further, which suggests otherwise.

In the end, the plane will fly, fly well and they will do modifications to make it reach its intended performance, but Airbus has a proven track record of overstating expectations during the selling phase and struggling to achieve its promises. That said, they seem to get there in the end on most of them.

J


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21529 posts, RR: 59
Reply 5, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8672 times:

Are they going to say otherwise? Not saying it isn't true, but what business admits things are going wrong in a press release? Boeing wouldn't, i would bet. They will say all is fine while they look to correct anything that may not be fine. That's what i would do.

I was intrigued by the first flight tv show on TLC here in the US. They were having many problems evident from the footage and dialogue if not from the narrator. Landing gear and engines. Lots of cursing involving these two things.

I bet the plane performs as promised, no better, no worse, when all is said and done.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineLeskova From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 6075 posts, RR: 70
Reply 6, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8584 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 5):
Are they going to say otherwise? Not saying it isn't true, but what business admits things are going wrong in a press release? Boeing wouldn't, i would bet. They will say all is fine while they look to correct anything that may not be fine. That's what i would do.

They probably would admit if things were going wrong, and I do believe that Boeing would, too.

The simple reason: things would get out anyhow - unexpected positive, or negative, news always finds a way into the public, and if it's via one of the customers that's already signed up for the plane that's being informed...

If I recall correctly, the problems with the A340-500/-600's weight came out during testing, just as much as I seem to remember reports of vibrations during the B777's original test flights (might be wrong on that one, it's been a few years since)...

So, no, I don't think that either of the two big manufacturers, not to mention Bombardier or Embraer, would try to hide problems from the outside during testing.

As for Cathay - I wasn't aware that they had already publicly stated their intention of replacing the A340-600s with the B747Adv; when was that made public?

Regards,
Frank

[Edited 2005-05-25 09:16:20]


Smile - it confuses people!
User currently offlineScotron11 From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2004, 1178 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 8477 times:

Quoting Leskova (Reply 6):

As for Cathay - I wasn't aware that they had already publicly stated their intention of replacing the A340-600s with the B747Adv; when was that made public?


I haven't read or heard it either. Mulally wasn't too specific yesterday either regarding the future of their 767/747 lines, only that a decision will be made in the "summer". (Sound familiar?)


User currently offlineCarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2954 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 8416 times:

Despite even with a modest order for the 747Adv from CX, there is probably little interest from existing 744 operators currently. The 744s aren't that old yet and those wishing to upgrade capacity near-term have already selected the A380. Once the 744SF program gets underway, this will virtually end new build 744Fs.

I am not sure how much Boeing is going to invest 787 technology into the 747 program but if it's just a re-engining and material upgrades, the market will be luke-warm to that idea. Any re-winging and stretching of the fuselage will require substantial investment.

Boeing is better off with the 773ER at the high capacity range and let Airbus have the market for A380-class aircraft. Because right now it's kicking the A346 in the rear end in most competitions.

By 2010, there will be airlines that have not selected an entire 744 replacement to seek one. For example such BA, JL, KE (if they haven't already migrated to the A380/773ER/A346 combo). Then, Boeing could come with a true competitor to the A380, and decide whether it goes under or over the capacity of the currently offered A388.

With that Boeing could be finished with the 747 & 767 production in 2007.

In regards to CX, the only market it really needs VLA is the HKG-LHR run. Everybody knows that an airline doesn't order a totally new aircraft just for one route.


User currently offlineMonteycarlos From Australia, joined Mar 2005, 2107 posts, RR: 28
Reply 9, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 8197 times:

Yeah, I am not sure where ATW Online got that, but three A346's to be replaced by a large order for 747 Adv's? Did I miss something there?


It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 10, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 8175 times:

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 8):
In regards to CX, the only market it really needs VLA is the HKG-LHR run. Everybody knows that an airline doesn't order a totally new aircraft just for one route.

Maybe HKG-YVR, HKG-LAX as well? Also a few more......

Guess CX will order the B 747 Advanced to replace their B 747-400s when they need replacement. Also they will likely replace their A 340-600 with B 747 Advanced


User currently offlineAvek00 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4383 posts, RR: 19
Reply 11, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 8170 times:

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 8):
Despite even with a modest order for the 747Adv from CX, there is probably little interest from existing 744 operators currently.

Completely untrue - BA, CX, and QF have all expressed significant interest in the 744ADV.



Live life to the fullest.
User currently offlineMonteycarlos From Australia, joined Mar 2005, 2107 posts, RR: 28
Reply 12, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 8146 times:

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 11):
Completely untrue - BA, CX, and QF have all expressed significant interest in the 744ADV.

Well BA and CX yes....

QF???

I just don't get replacing A346's with B747Adv's? Surely thats the 773ER's job?

Quoting United Airline (Reply 10):
Guess CX will order the B 747 Advanced to replace their B 747-400s when they need replacement. Also they will likely replace their A 340-600 with B 747 Advanced

The CX B744's are pretty old aren't they? How long til they're up for eviction?



It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 13, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 8069 times:

According to the former Deputy Chairman of Cathay Pacific, Mr Patrick Tsai, CX plans to operate the B747-400 till they are at the age of 25. They see their B 747-400s having a lifespan or 25 years.

Guess CX will order the B 747 Advanced to replace the A 340-600s and B 747-400s all in one go. But how many will they order? Up to 25 maybe? They have just acquired some second hand B 747-400s which will make the number of B 747-400s to be 22. And they have 3 A 340-600s to replace.....

I suppose ALL B 747-400 operators are potential buyers of the B 747 Advanced. Hope it will turn out to be a huge success, like the B 747-400.

Boeing will eventually come up with an all new superjumbo. Maybe in 20 years time


User currently offlineAntares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 38
Reply 14, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 8063 times:

Avek00,

Qantas hasn't expressed any interest in the 744 ADV. In fact they told Boeing to do anatomically inadvisable things with the proposal. They are, or were, more than interested in the 787, including a 100 % guarantee that all composite components for the cabin cage inparticular would weight precisely the same as each other, meaning that every jet would have as near identical dry weight as today's various offerings .

I have an uneasy feeling that everything we thought we knew about Boeing and Airbus projects is about to be proven wrong. The 'body' language of recent announcements from both camps is totally unconvincing. I know that's rather unscientific of me to say so, but I've sent more than half a century reading company and public or banking policy statements for almost imperceptible clues. My instincts are that the the signposts along the road are no longer readable, meaning we can't be sure anymore exactly where the business of making jets is headed.

Antares


User currently offlineMonteycarlos From Australia, joined Mar 2005, 2107 posts, RR: 28
Reply 15, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 8042 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 13):
Guess CX will order the B 747 Advanced to replace the A 340-600s and B 747-400s all in one go.

The article suggests the 773ER will be in there too... IMO I think it will also.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 13):
But how many will they order? Up to 25 maybe?

Good question, if the 77W is in there it will be less, but if solely the B74Adv then I am guessing there number will be 18-22 give or take.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 13):
They have just acquired some second hand B 747-400s which will make the number of B 747-400s to be 22.

Weren't these freighter converts?

Quoting United Airline (Reply 13):
And they have 3 A 340-600s to replace.....

Something tells me this won't be hard (i.e. buying 77W's).

Quoting United Airline (Reply 13):
Boeing will eventually come up with an all new superjumbo.

Will it be able to go point to point?

[Edited 2005-05-25 13:30:32]


It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 16, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 8043 times:

MH, TG and LH asked Boeing to look into a stretched B 747 a few years ago. So I suppose they are interested.

QF is one of the potential buyers I think, along with CX, BA, LH, KLM, UA, NW, TG, SQ, MH, KE, CI, CA, JL, ANA etc. NZ an AF (maybe).

Just my 1 cent.

CX is very interested I am sure


User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12566 posts, RR: 46
Reply 17, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 8028 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 11):
Completely untrue - BA, CX, and QF have all expressed significant interest in the 744ADV.

When and where have BA expressed this significant interest? They have publicly stated that replacement of their 767s is top priority, but that's not urgent seeing as how they're currently fitting new seats.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineMonteycarlos From Australia, joined Mar 2005, 2107 posts, RR: 28
Reply 18, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 8002 times:

I think it is wrong, given the way the industry has gone, to say that a mjority of 744 operators want the 747 Adv.

Take UA for example. I'm sure they'd love it, but c'mon? Can you see them getting anything except court papers for the next few years?

I think that the 747 Adv. will become a reality but I want to know how many carriers are "truly" interested with an aircraft like the A380 on the market.



It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12566 posts, RR: 46
Reply 19, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 7980 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting United Airline (Reply 16):
MH, TG and LH asked Boeing to look into a stretched B 747 a few years ago.

And all three have now ordered the A380! Can't see any of them going for the 747ADV for pax use. Freight maybe.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 20, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 7959 times:

Most B 747-400s are still very new and I guess they need not be replaced anytime soon. BA's oldest B 747-400 is around 16 years old. When it comes to replacement I am sure current B 747-400s will look into the B 747 Advanced seriously. Hope the B 747 Advanced will be as successful as the B 747-400.

Yeah you are right. Court papers and stuffs for UA now. Maybe when they get out of chapter 11 then they will order some.


User currently offlineMonteycarlos From Australia, joined Mar 2005, 2107 posts, RR: 28
Reply 21, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 7933 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 20):
Maybe when they get out of chapter 11 then they will order some.

"when" should be replaced with "if" and even then, new aircraft will not be on their agenda. Sad for them I guess.

Its a good point that Scbriml brings up that many of the major's have already signed on for A380's which may affect their interest in the 747 Adv.

CX is a different story - they are yet to decide but its more than likely going to be a Boeing IMO.



It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
User currently offlineDanny From Poland, joined Apr 2002, 3509 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 7907 times:

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 21):
CX is a different story - they are yet to decide but its more than likely going to be a Boeing IMO.

It's never formality until the decision is made. Remember Northwest, Air Canada?


User currently offlineMonteycarlos From Australia, joined Mar 2005, 2107 posts, RR: 28
Reply 23, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 7884 times:

Quoting Danny (Reply 22):
It's never formality until the decision is made. Remember Northwest, Air Canada?

Weren't they the definition of a "formality"?

I heard months before (here on a.net) which way those orders would go, with sources to back them up.

My view, this one is no different!



It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
User currently offlineAntares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 38
Reply 24, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 7886 times:

Guys,

I know this is a fantasy forum (I'm a slow learner in some respects) but what are you going to say if no-one orders the 744 ADV?

The jet depends on the transfer of technology from the 787, which doesn't fly until the middle of 2007. In the meantime there is the truly outstanding 777-300ER and an A380 which will have been in service for around 4 years before the 744 ADV would become available on the articles I've been reading.

Get real.

Antares


25 DAYflyer : Better PR to admit the mistake and work cooperatively to gte things fixed, than to have someone else blow it out of proportion.... Me either, I thoug
26 United Airline : Eventually when Boeing feels that there is a huge market, I am sure they will build an all new superjumbo to compete with Airbus. Maybe something bigg
27 MKEdude : CX has been a loyal Boeing customer over the years and as long as the 747ADV is a possibility I see no reason for that to change. When the 747ADV is f
28 RayChuang : I think what is holding up the order for new long-range widebody jets is CX wants to know the fuel burn of the A380-800 is based on the testing of F-W
29 Commavia : I agree. I think that CX leaning away from the A380 and towards the 747ADV and 773ER are largely a reflection of CX's very long and positive relation
30 Monteycarlos : You see here is the toss up. CX is a long time Boeing buyer, yet like other "traditional" Boeing customers (and I'll lump QF in here) they have bough
31 PyroGX41487 : Remember, CX isn't a Boeing only carrier. They have A343s, A346s, 332s... basically a fair share of Airbus widebodies. I think its fair to say that if
32 KL808 : CX uses its A340-600 to JFK. CX has never been fond of sending twins across the pacific therefore maybe a B747ADV would be better suited on that rout
33 MKEdude : I say KE and MH because both are carriers that have always flown a mixed Boeing/Airbus fleet. They seem to buck the "fleet commonality" trend and ins
34 N79969 : Has Cathay Pacific commented in any way on the 787? In my mind, they seem like a prime target for 787 sales efforts as they operate quite a few A330.
35 BuckFifty : There is a concern that, if and when a 747Adv does show up, that it will be too expensive an aircraft to replace the 744's in CX's fleet. The 773ER, i
36 United Airline : UA is likely to survive. Once they are out of the woods I believe they will order the B 747 Advanced to replace their B 747-400s. ANA's B 747 Classics
37 Pixuk : I though Boeing stated there wasn't a market for a new superjumbo, which is why they got on and developed the 7E7 while Airbus went down the A3XX rou
38 Zoom1018 : I think Boeing stated that there was not enough demand for VLA, they did not say there was no market at all!
39 KL808 : Yes sir your right, however I believe the ETOPS requirements to Australia from HKG is minimal (120 min is sufficient), therefore the use of twins to
40 Zoom1018 : Well, things change through time... who knows? If others can fly their twins over the water, so can CX.
41 Clickhappy : posted this in another thread, but rumors around Seattle have CX, BA, and Qantas launching the 747Adv at Paris with orders for 10 frames each.
42 Post contains images Zoom1018 : if that would be truth then it 'exceeds' my expectation
43 Danny : BA is not buying anything.
44 Zoom1018 : They could sign a MOU ... not? or even a firm order for future deliveries hehehe
45 Pixuk : There seems to be constant 'rumours' (mostly started on here) that BA are buying this or that, when they've only just publically stated they're not bu
46 Post contains links PM : Two points. 1. Less than two months ago Cathay and Rolls-Royce signed a TotalCare agreement covering the Trent 500 on the A340-600 and it is described
47 Kaitak : Very interesting thread. My personal feeling is that the 747A is the end of the road for the 747, whatever happens. I love the 747, as I'm sure we all
48 ConcordeBoy : They've never operated the A332 Though they don't necessarily "need" it, CX is certified for and operates ETOPS180 to Australia.
49 Ikramerica : ETOPS rules are changing to include 4 engine planes (just with different time restriction), and the larger you go, the harder it is to find facilities
50 ConcordeBoy : The number of ETOPS diversion airports that could handle a 787, but not a 777, in an emergency situation is so small as to be considered non-existent
51 Post contains links and images Jacobin777 : If anybody bothered to read my post heading about the 747/767....anyway. http://www.airliners.net/discussions...eneral_aviation/read.main/2131221/ "
52 ZK-NBT : From what I understand CX are waiting to see how the A380 performs for other airlines when it wnters service. They are particularly interested to see
53 Zvezda : CX and QF orders for the B747Adv make a lot of sense. In the seemingly unlikely event that BA places an order, it would be for delivery after 2010. B
54 ZK-NBT : I can't really see BA taking any more B747ERs. Hmm, BA don't operate any 747ER's, perhaps you mean 744's?!
55 Zvezda : I think it's a safe bet that any B747s ordered now will be B747ERs.
56 Trex8 : If there is going to be an early 747A customer it will be CI. It is already replacing the 744s it has that were delivered in the early 90s with new 74
57 Monteycarlos : LROPS is only a work in progress, not a variant of ETOPS. Well thats their loss. Yeah, I've seen A343's as well as A333's and then B744's down here i
58 Zvezda : Perhaps you meant B747-400s? I can easily imagine orders for the passenger variant of the B747Adv.
59 Monteycarlos : Disregarding the 747 Advanced, I see almost any order for a 747 from now on to be a freighter. When was the last pax. version ordered?
60 United Airline : I think it was China Airlines's order back in 2002
61 Scotron11 : Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 7): I haven't read or heard it either. Mulally wasn't too specific yesterday either regarding the future of their 767/747 li
62 Zvezda : The only order for the passenger B747-400ER has been 6 planes ordered by QF in 2000 with the first delivery in 2002.
63 DeltaWings : What is this A340-600ER? Will this be reality, or is it just a proposal by Aurbus? And what will be the range of the A346ER? ~DeltaWings
64 Post contains links Monteycarlos : Perhaps they were referring to the A346IGW... which is the revamped A340-600. It is the same plane except having a better function on one of its wing
65 CX flyboy : CX will be issuing RFPs next Friday to manufacturers. Only then will we know what CX are actually looking for, and how many of each aircraft type they
66 DfwRevolution : It's really called the A340-600HGW (High Gross Weight) Yes... it has been ordered by EK, and several other customers. It's questionable that EK will
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
The Day Of Reckoning For Cathay Fleet Order posted Thu Jun 2 2005 19:46:16 by CXoneWorld
Qantas Widebody Order Update! posted Tue May 10 2005 08:39:54 by Monteycarlos
News On AC's Widebody Order posted Mon Apr 18 2005 22:43:17 by NYC777
Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order posted Wed Mar 9 2005 17:31:54 by Awschucksflyer
Cathay To Order New Aircraft? posted Wed Mar 10 2004 21:34:39 by Raggi
Aeromexico Widebody Order Soon? posted Sun Oct 19 2003 17:14:46 by B764
KLM Selects GE Engines For Widebody Order posted Wed Jun 26 2002 09:35:41 by Skippy777
TWA Widebody Order? posted Tue Jul 11 2000 23:22:44 by TurboTristar
Large Cathay Pacific Order Comming posted Mon Jan 17 2000 19:57:26 by DeltaAir
SAS Widebody Order posted Sun Sep 26 1999 15:11:40 by Matt.