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Song Scales Back West Coast Flights  
User currently offlinePadcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 4559 times:

Looks like JFK-LAX going down to 5 flights from 7 after Summer.

JFK-SEA only going to 2 flights not 3.

JFK-SFO stays at 3.

I would expect new routes to be announced in place of these reductions.

42 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFlyguy1 From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1738 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 4546 times:

Quoting Padcrasher (Thread starter):

Looks like JFK-LAX going down to 5 flights from 7 after Summer.

JFK-SEA only going to 2 flights not 3.

JFK-SFO stays at 3.

Extra freq. to FLA. FLL will go from 5, to 8 daily, for example.



727, L1011, MD80, A300, 777-200, 737-300, 737-700, 747-400, 757-200, 737-800, A320. E190, E135, 767-200, CRJ9
User currently offlinePadcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 4501 times:

SFO was planned at 5, then 4, now 3 frequencies.

Quoting Flyguy1 (Reply 1):
Extra freq. to FLA. FLL will go from 5, to 8 daily, for example.

So you think some of this is seasonal? Surely, not all of it as SEA and SFO never reach the initial number of flights planned.


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17341 posts, RR: 46
Reply 3, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 4495 times:

Standard Fall reductions I'd imagine since traffic falls off a cliff come August 20.


E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlinePadcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 4485 times:

Whoa. I did not see that 8 flights from 4 JFK-FLL. I'd imagine other Florida markets see more flights.

User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21474 posts, RR: 60
Reply 5, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 4367 times:

Well while LAX traffic doesn't tend to fluctuate that much month to month, the type of traveler does. Leisure more in summer, business more in other 8 months. At least that's how I understand it.


Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineUswyjer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 4359 times:

With BDL-LAX, BOS-LAX, and BOS-SFO starting up in September, this probably will help to free up some aircraft, granted Song does have their last 757s coming online at the time.

User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9496 posts, RR: 52
Reply 7, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 4341 times:

The SEA route reduction does not surprise me at all. One flight would be enough since the leisure market to SEA is so seasonal. The flights in the summer are always full because of the cruise traffic to Alaska, but in the winter, no one in their right mind would visit the rainy city. Those planes would earn a lot more by taking people to Florida, which is probably what DL is going after.


If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently onlineB6FA4ever From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 816 posts, RR: 11
Reply 8, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 4298 times:

it probably is a seasonal reduction. plus not to mention a good time to get the a/c's into maintenance mode for check ups and stuff before the busy winter flying.

~B6FA4ever


User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24836 posts, RR: 46
Reply 9, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 6 days ago) and read 4250 times:

No surprise. Song has had a rough beginning to date on the JFK-LAX run.

Until last weekend it was offering $99 fares good for travel thru the end of August, which upset the market pricing for all airlines which were finally offering higher historically "normalized" fares this summer.

Songs plan was to maintain 7 flights year around, however no sooner did the new service begin that I did hear rumblings of schedule reductions as advance bookings/revenue projections were not close to targets.

Eventually would not be surprised DL give up the transcon market completely ex JFK. Song was to be Delta's last attempt to maintain its toe in the market following mainline inability to compete successfully. If Song can barely maintain the JFK-LAX service, I do not see how it will be able to offer a profitable product from BDL and BOS.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineJrlander From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 1104 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 4179 times:

Of course- the $99 fare from LAX-JFK originated when B6 entered the NYC-LA market....
DL will not give up the transcon market from JFK.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25005 posts, RR: 85
Reply 11, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 4161 times:
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Quoting Jrlander (Reply 10):
DL will not give up the transcon market from JFK.

Why not? If it isn't making money, why will they not give it up?

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineChrisNH From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 4085 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 4134 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 9):
I do not see how it will be able to offer a profitable product from BDL and BOS.

Delta tried and failed twice on transcon routes out of Boston. What makes this time different? Mostly, the incumbents AA and UA are flying fewer seats between BOS-LAX and BOS-SFO than ever before. For goodness sakes, AA is using 737s (!). When DL tried years ago, it was when the markets were awash in seats. Now, with decidedly weaker competitors in AA and UA and fewer seats between them, I think Song can make a go of this. If they can't, they (DL) should abandon all hopes of EVER succeeding with transcon again.

Chris in NH


User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24836 posts, RR: 46
Reply 13, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 4061 times:

Delta has tried many variations of a transcons thru the years. There was even a period when it operated 3 daily LAX-EWR flights using B762s.

Entering the JFK-LAX with 7 daily Song flights is a tall order to fill, considering mainline only had 3-4 daily flights prior. In addition Song remains still nearly unknown name in California. A major marketing blitz is needed if they hope to build the name and counter the publics perception that low fare to NYC means Jetblue.

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 12):
Delta tried and failed twice on transcon routes out of Boston. What makes this time different? Mostly, the incumbents AA and UA are flying fewer seats between BOS-LAX and BOS-SFO than ever before.

Indeed AA and UA have reduced their BOS-California services, but one must keep in mind the market is no longer solely theirs. Jetblue has joined the two legacy carriers offering 3 daily flights to Long Beach and Oakland each, certainly making up for the reduction in capacity by AA/UA.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineJamake1 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1005 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 4035 times:

Personally, I thought it was rather silly of Song/Delta to be saturating the JFK-westcoast market further with such a high number of daily frequencies to begin with.

With UA and AA firmly established between LAX/SFO and JFK, and Jet Blue firmly established between LGB/OAK and JFK; and all three carriers with significant daily frequencies, I couldn't understand the rationale behind Song's attempt to chase already deluded yields in the transcon market.

In this day and age, it is better to put one's resources to markets where dominance has already been achieved.



United's B747-400. "She's a a cruel lover."
User currently offlinePadcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 4019 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 9):
Song has had a rough beginning to date on the JFK-LAX run.

What's so rough? I've monitored the loads, nothing seems out of the ordinary. It's not even up to full compliment yet. And the service is so new. I would think word of mouth alone would make a huge difference in a Year's time.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6578 posts, RR: 24
Reply 16, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 4036 times:

Quoting Uswyjer (Reply 6):
With BDL-LAX, BOS-LAX, and BOS-SFO starting up in September, this probably will help to free up some aircraft, granted Song does have their last 757s coming online at the time.

But some of the aircraft for these routes should come from the cancellation of JFK-RSW and EWR-MCO.

I'm not really surprised by these reductions. I think DL was overdoing it on some of these routes and dumping an insane amount of capacity. It's probably better if they add some different routes, instead of flooding the existing markets.


User currently offlinePadcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 4005 times:

Quoting Jamake1 (Reply 14):
I couldn't understand the rationale behind Song's attempt to chase already deluded yields in the transcon market.

If you're going to be a player in NYC you must do these routes. Additionally, Delta needs a presence in these markets to feed JFK International flights as the traffic is significant.

A Song 757 has a CASM 65% to 60% of what AA has in the market.
You can already see what JB did to AA w/MRTC and F class in the LGB/ONT markets.

Song has a great chance as well. And I hear HP is pulling their flights out.


User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24836 posts, RR: 46
Reply 18, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 3973 times:

Quoting Padcrasher (Reply 15):
What's so rough?

The Song marketing folks never tought they would have to offer $99 fares beyond the first month. Now they had to do it thru the end of August. This managed to skew all the actual and projected route revenue. Also having AA match the Song introduction fares dollar for dollar between LA-JFK did not help either, as new consumers were not really shifted away from others onto Song.

Much of the assumption was based on previous summer mainline transcon loads. It was felt the added Song capacity could be absorbed easily, however bookings fell instead of increasing with the additional seats. I would attribute this to both a lack of name recognition and the above mentioned fare matching.

I believe Song has realized the roll out did not go as per plan and wisely have decided there is no way to maintain 7 flights during the winter when leisure travel drops. If not the $99 fare would likely have become a year around Song event which would not allow for any profitability.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineLACA773 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 4002 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 3945 times:
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I hope Song succeeds on their new LAX/SFO-JFK-LAX/SFO runs. They have a much better product than AA, and though 7 flights a day is a lot, 5 seems like a much more rational number. If you want preium cabin service then you can go with UA "ps" product.

BTW, how are Songs loads so far on their transcons? How's B6 doing on their BUR trips? Has it made a small dent in the JFK market out of LAX?

Regards,
LACA773


User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 52
Reply 20, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 3869 times:

Quoting LACA773 (Reply 19):
I hope Song succeeds on their new LAX/SFO-JFK-LAX/SFO runs. They have a much better product than AA, and though 7 flights a day is a lot, 5 seems like a much more rational number.

I agree, and hope Song can start making money on their TransCon routes.  Big grin


User currently offlineTsnamm From United States of America, joined May 2005, 628 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3645 times:

Quoting Padcrasher (Reply 17):
And I hear HP is pulling their flights out

Actually HP's non stops JFK/LAX are doing very well...the SFO flight was cut, but LAX went from 1 to 2 daily flights and has been stable...


User currently offlineRwSEA From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 3077 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3639 times:

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 7):
The SEA route reduction does not surprise me at all. One flight would be enough since the leisure market to SEA is so seasonal. The flights in the summer are always full because of the cruise traffic to Alaska, but in the winter, no one in their right mind would visit the rainy city. Those planes would earn a lot more by taking people to Florida, which is probably what DL is going after.

True as far as tourism ... but there's still the O&D traffic and quite a bit of folks in SEA use DL to connect to Europe. They've been able to keep 2x mainline year-round, so I'd expect at least 2x Song year-round as well. They'll definitely keep the 8:30 departure to connect to Europe. Is the second departure being kept the red-eye or the late morning?


User currently offlinePadcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3592 times:

Quoting Tsnamm (Reply 21):
Actually HP's non stops JFK/LAX are doing very well...the SFO flight was cut, but LAX went from 1 to 2 daily flights and has been stable

I read that with the new US/HP merger that this route was going to be axed.
I'm not able to source it, despite my google search.

But what's the proof HP is doing well? They had a 55% domestic load factor compared to AA's 82% for January. In Feb it was 62%. They yield the lowest of any carrier in the market $157 in the 3Q 04.

Those are money losing numbers.


User currently offlineTsnamm From United States of America, joined May 2005, 628 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (9 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 3532 times:

HP staff here at JFK says nothing but good things about the flights...I know their break even numbers are lower than AA and UA...plus the mail and cargo revenue from the flights are very good...even though its just an A319 , they fill up the bellies every flt...from what I hear locally here they are happy with the way the flight s are going...now whether that translates into continuing service after the merger...that remains to be seen...but from what I've heard from HP here at JFK , they're happy with the results of the LAX flts...

25 DeltaMIA : No they haven't. Song has been outperforming mainline. It's a tough market, but Song is doing twice as good as mainline is/was on the route. The init
26 Post contains images SongStar : Still believe, from what i hear, this is simple fall reductions....the schedule was pulled down 40% last year and everyone was crying foul..."it's ove
27 DeltaMIA : Partially fall reductions. Some are permanent though. However the aircraft will be utilized. Song will be having their annual Songapalooza event (for
28 FA4B6 : from what I see very well. since we started BUR, I've done several BUR flights and they've all been as full as possible [full JFK-BUR, full, but capp
29 Post contains links Alphascan : I don't know anyone who thinks load factor in and of itself is any indication of how well a carrier is performing. But if you are going to spew numbe
30 Padcrasher : alpha I took the numbers from a DOT traffic database for the Months of Jan and Feb. The DOT also publishes a Domestic Air fare report that shows HP ha
31 HarvardMan99 : I just hope that they continue to build on their current network. Any expansion of SONG is great news. Probably the BEST travel experience I've ever h
32 Padcrasher : Wow. Nice kudos. What route did you fly?
33 Post contains images Gabrielz : The critical thing about the SFO/LAX-JFK routes is *premium traffic*. For the past 20+ years, these transcons kicked off cash in every direction. It i
34 Padcrasher : I agree with what you say to some extent. But this is not the market it was 5 years ago, much less 10 years ago. AA's average fare is $300 and going l
35 Travelin man : While I agree that UA and AA have the lion's share of corporate/entertainment contracts, I disagree with the assertion that the other players have "a
36 SESGDL : That's totally false. It's been shown that more and more business travelers are flying LCCs, especially B6. UA's premium traffic has definitely decli
37 Alphascan : Do I care to rethink my post? Not at all. First, source your numbers. As I did. If you think the DOT numbers are more accurate than what the carrier
38 Padcrasher : You're still in left field Alpha My post had to do with a particular market and you took it to mean system load factor. The proceeded get all hot and
39 Alphascan : Type slower next time otherwise you'll just put your foot in your mouth again and continue to be the fool.
40 Padcrasher : The DOT market data is separated. Domestic in one database, Intl in the other. Hence I gave only the domestic load factor in that particular market un
41 LACA773 : How is UA's "ps" doing? I feel their product is much better than AA's by a long shot, and they are really trying.
42 Laxintl : No agreed it takes time to build a market and especially in the case of Song whom must also build a name. Just marketing thinking was things were goi
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