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AC's Used 345 Source And Related Impact On A&B  
User currently offlineTurbojet From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 21 posts, RR: 0
Posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 6950 times:

Well.. It looks like we won't see another AC "surprised" re-order drama any time soon. If AC were to reorder the cancelled deal, it is too obvious the management is playing some sort of game.

Let's say AC now has to secure some used A340-500. Where will they come from? SQ? Or maybe the three from CX with new pilots to fly them.

Maybe this cancellation isn't so bad for B. With AC's financial situation, B might've already figured out too low the likelihood of such a big order to be actually materialized. So B plays along. It might be B's strategy to purge SQ or CX's A340 and then sell 777ER/LR to them.

As far as AC goes, there are not many used A340-500 free for sale now. So the price to get them won't be cheap. SQ and ILFC (CX) can dump them with good price. I think in the long run, AC will be hurt by their A340 fleet due to multiple engines and lower residual value (less airlines interests). They should replace A340 with twin-engine metals from either A or B ASAP.

32 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineYUL332LX From Canada, joined Feb 2004, 820 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 6903 times:

Quoting Turbojet (Thread starter):
Or maybe the three from CX with new pilots to fly them.

Those are A346s.  Wink



E volavo, volavo felice più in alto del sole, e ancora più su mentre il mondo pian piano spariva lontano laggiù ...
User currently offlineAC787 From Canada, joined Mar 2005, 337 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 6900 times:

Quoting Turbojet (Thread starter):
Maybe this cancellation isn't so bad for B. With AC's financial situation

AC is in very good financial situation and many legacy carriers in the US would love to be able to recreate what AC did when it was restructuring. Not only do they not have much debt, but they are modernising there narrowbody fleet, installing IFE in all there planes, and simplifying there fares as well as reducing there cost structure. I just hope something can be worked out and this deal can come back on track.

Quoting Turbojet (Thread starter):
So B plays along. It might be B's strategy to purge SQ or CX's A340 and then sell 777ER/LR to them.

How's Boeing playing along? They've just released a press release, what would u expect them to do? I'm sure there VERY dissapointed with this cancellation. If you've been looking on the boeing 787 page you'd notice the order they'd been giving the most attention too was the AC one, if you look even today, the AC order is the main one they show on the 787 page. I'm sure the folks at boeing are shaking there heads on this sunday night.

Quoting Turbojet (Thread starter):
They should replace A340 with twin-engine metals from either A or B ASAP.

Can't replace the 340's in the fleet from Airbus, the 340 is what they would suggest. They might add some 340-600's but the other variants would stay. As for replacing them with Boeings, well that would mean the deal coming back through... That would be my hope


User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 6889 times:

Well, CX don't even have A345's. And they've got quite a long contract with RR on Trent 500 maintenance for their A346's.

Quoting Turbojet (Thread starter):
As far as AC goes, there are not many used A340-500 free for sale now. So the price to get them won't be cheap. SQ and ILFC (CX) can dump them with good price. I think in the long run, AC will be hurt by their A340 fleet due to multiple engines and lower residual value (less airlines interests). They should replace A340 with twin-engine metals from either A or B ASAP.

See i always thought they should just stick with the A340/A330. It (A340) might not be as good as the 777 but it ain't the worst thing in the world. There are many airline operating it profitably, and the hassle of switching the entire fleet from A to B i predicted to be too great.


User currently offlineFallingeese From Canada, joined Apr 2001, 2097 posts, RR: 18
Reply 4, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 6859 times:

It has nothing to do with the cost of transfering to a Boeing longhaul fleet. It was due to the pilots rejecting the conditions of training on the new aircraft and how they would be paid for it.


Mark McWhirter...Contrails Photography
User currently offlineTurbojet From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 21 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 6829 times:

Quoting YUL332LX (Reply 1):

I was wondering if AC could get CX's 346 and hire new pilots to fly them. 346 would have the same issue with the union pilots flying larger planes.


User currently offlineAC787 From Canada, joined Mar 2005, 337 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 6806 times:

Quoting Turbojet (Reply 5):
I was wondering if AC could get CX's 346 and hire new pilots to fly them

Unions tend to not react well when the company hires new ppl to get around things they dislike  Wink


User currently offlineAF-A319 From France, joined Oct 1999, 603 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 6779 times:

The cancellation of the AC's Boeing order may have a positive impact on the residual value of the A340-500 and of the -600 to a lesser extent. And that's a good pice of news for all A340NG current and future operators. (and for Airbus as well obviously!)

As for Boeing, I can't wait to see which customer(s) willl take over AC's early 777 delivery slots.


User currently offlineAC787 From Canada, joined Mar 2005, 337 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 6769 times:

Quoting AF-A319 (Reply 7):
As for Boeing, I can't wait to see which customer(s) willl take over AC's early 777 delivery slots.

Hopefully its Air Canada  Smile


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 9, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 6726 times:

maybe AI will take the earlier deliver slots now...or possibly EK or QR....


"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1596 posts, RR: 18
Reply 10, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 6697 times:

This news article is suggesting that AC will opt for used 777...

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/finan...KO00.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down

"Brewer said the company will look to the used market to find three 777s it needs for the planned Asian service."

This just maybe the silver living to this bad news for Boeing as they are going to become a 777 operator in the future and not A340.

Cheers



Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineAC777LR From Canada, joined Apr 2006, 487 posts, RR: 41
Reply 11, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 6612 times:

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 10):
"Brewer said the company will look to the used market to find three 777s it needs for the planned Asian service."

I think that he said that he would look for planes from the used market that would fill in for the three 777s that where to come next year.



Member since April 2000
User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16245 posts, RR: 56
Reply 12, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 6435 times:

3 used 777's? with the same commonality that AC wants for its future orders? good luck to AC on that one. used GE 772's are hard to find.

I still think the AC 777/787 order will proceed as planned.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineAC7E7 From Canada, joined Oct 2004, 644 posts, RR: 22
Reply 13, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 6365 times:

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 12):
I still think the AC 777/787 order will proceed as planned.

Even though I am disappointed, I agree with you on this one. The order will probably go through anyway. AC wants these Boeing aircraft. They will just re-order the same delivery slots. I think this cancellation really affects the 777 and not the 787s. The 787 can be reordered in the future anyway, but the 777s are needed next year. There are plenty of UA 777 in the desert right now. Granted they are -200s but they may fill some of the capacity gap in the short term.



Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.
User currently offlineBlsbls99 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 345 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 6349 times:

So, help me understand...if AC gets used 777s, how does that change the pilot's training and pay that they just voted on??
Also, aren't all of the ex-United 777s that were stored in the desert taken up by other carriers (Varig and Air India)???



319 320 313 722 732 733 735 73G 738 739 742 752 763 772 CRJ D9S ERJ EMB L10 M88 M90 SF3 AT4
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6871 posts, RR: 63
Reply 15, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 6266 times:

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 12):
3 used 777's? with the same commonality that AC wants for its future orders? good luck to AC on that one. used GE 772's are hard to find.

They actually said they want three 'used' 777-300ERs next year. Who might lease them a few? AF? EK? It's a necessarily small list!

Anyway, used GE 777s are no harder to find than PW and certainly easier to acquire than RR. Varig's GE planes come and go, BA has disposed of two GE 777s and Aeroflot's two were on the market recently. I can't think of any RR examples changing hands yet.


User currently offlineScorpio From Belgium, joined Oct 2001, 5018 posts, RR: 44
Reply 16, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 6124 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 15):
They actually said they want three 'used' 777-300ERs next year.

I'm sorry, but where did they say that? From what I read, they said they needed 3 planes to fill in for the three 777s that were normally to be delivered next year. 3 planes. Not 3 777s, and certainly not -300ERs.


User currently offlineA350 From Germany, joined Nov 2004, 1100 posts, RR: 22
Reply 17, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 5839 times:

I think if they don't re-order its probably bad for AC simply because it seems that AC got a once-in-a-lifetime deal and they will never get it again. 46 B787 options for just a few orders, that's sweet.

A350



Photography - the art of observing, not the art of arranging
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6871 posts, RR: 63
Reply 18, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 5628 times:

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 16):
I'm sorry, but where did they say that? From what I read, they said they needed 3 planes to fill in for the three 777s that were normally to be delivered next year. 3 planes. Not 3 777s, and certainly not -300ERs

Quite right. My mistake. I read the statement in a hurry and got it wrong. What I read was:

we will seek to find alternative aircraft (of types covered by the current collective agreement) in the used market for the three 777-300ER aircraft contemplated for 2006 delivery under this order (two for Q2/06 and a third during Q4/06). We will adjust our plans and it is anticipated that the company will continue to grow on an unaltered basis.

I must admit, it seemed strange - and improbable - that they'd find used 773ERs next year. Thanks for making me go back and read it more carefully. ashamed 

OK, so what'll they get? More A330s? The three A346s they delayed?


User currently offlineBeechnut From Canada, joined Apr 2004, 723 posts, RR: 10
Reply 19, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 5620 times:

I have a suspicion the order is not dead yet. Air Canada is simply calling the pilot's bluff. AC really needs to sort out the mess in its widebody fleet. The 767s are a mish-mash of -200s, AC ordered -333s (both series with P&W engines) plus GE-powered ex-CP -375s and a batch of used aircraft. The 747 fleet (now gone) was a similar mess with P&W powered AC combis and GE powered ex-CP -475s.

The A345 is not really economical and its only claim to fame is its ultra long range. I doubt AC would want to add more of these to the fleet. Perhaps they could revive the A346 order but I doubt it. They'd have a mix of A340-300s of different variants and range, plus 500s and 600s. Then there are the A330s as well. The Boeing order was to replace all of this with two major sub-types, the 777 and 787, with much better commonality.

They also want to start cargo service with dedicated aircraft and the 777 freighters were part of this plan. The freighters were also part of a pilots agreement that AC could subcontract the cargo service for a couple of years until it received its own dedicated aircraft. Watch the negotiations begin: AC will say to the pilots "screw you, we won't buy our own cargo fleet now, we'll simply continue subcontracting". Unfortunately labour relations is a major weak spot in AC and there is still much animosity between labour and management from the merger with CP.

Meanwhile the A340s will continue to slog along at M0.82 with tech stops along the way on the long-haul runs, and the A345s will continue to accrue downtime and operating expenses.

Beech.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 5476 times:

Boeing had offered to buy all AC Airbusses.

3 346's at order would be cancelled..


User currently offlinePlaneSmart From New Zealand, joined Dec 2004, 871 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 5305 times:

Quoting AC787 (Reply 2):
If you've been looking on the boeing 787 page you'd notice the order they'd been giving the most attention too was the AC one, if you look even today, the AC order is the main one they show on the 787 page. I'm sure the folks at boeing are shaking there heads on this sunday night.

According to many on a.net, B orders are firm contracts, with non-refundable deposits. Only firm orders appear on the B web site. SEC definition of an order is far tougher than that accepted in Europe.

How can this B order be cancelled? Well, just like A so-called orders, SEC or not, the vast majority are options / intentions.

If the 787 doesn't meet performance targets, is late or ends up more expensive, B will be in exactly the same hard place as A finds itself at present with A38 customers finalising contracts, who are firmly in the drivers seat.


User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 4698 times:

Quoting Beechnut (Reply 19):
They'd have a mix of A340-300s of different variants and range, plus 500s and 600s. Then there are the A330s as well.

Hardly an issue. The A340 and A330 have above 90% commonality, they're basically the same plane. The A345/6 less but still a significant amount. A333, A345 and A346 have Trents, A343 and A32S both have CFM56's.


User currently offlineAC787 From Canada, joined Mar 2005, 337 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 4319 times:

Quoting PlaneSmart (Reply 21):

According to many on a.net, B orders are firm contracts, with non-refundable deposits. Only firm orders appear on the B web site. SEC definition of an order is far tougher than that accepted in Europe.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/7e7/flash.html

I wasn't refrencing their orders page, I was just pointing out that the commitment they really seemed to be showing off was the AC one. Look that the 787 page I linked, its still being shown, "AC chooses 787/777's!". NW committed to the 787 after AC yet its the AC order their focusing on.


User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12910 posts, RR: 100
Reply 24, posted (9 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 4295 times:
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Quoting PM (Reply 15):
Anyway, used GE 777s are no harder to find than PW and certainly easier to acquire than RR.

Unfortunately, used 777-200A's with Pratt's are easy to find right now. If one considers that AC is looking for Trans-Pacific capable airframes, than yes, there just aren't any sitting idle that I'm aware of.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
25 BeechNut : Actually it is a big issue. Currently AC has 4 engine types in the widebody fleet (GE and PW in the 767 fleet, RR Trent, and CFM 56 in the 330/340s,
26 Gigneil : It depends on your view of Trans-Pacific. AC could fly 772As to NRT and ICN from YVR no problem. N
27 RJ111 : Beechnut, i agree the 767 half of the equation is an issue. I only quoted a little bit of your argument though, about the Airbus's. An A340/A330/A320/
28 WhiteHatter : Wasn't Air France looking to lease out a few of its ER spec 772 frames? There was some talk of them having some surplus capacity as they switch to the
29 Post contains images USAF336TFS : I agree with the above statements. I believe that this deal will revisited. Sounds like AC is trying to pressure the Pilots Union for more concession
30 Birdbrainz : Nobody will care. It will be all win-win, hugs and kisses if they ink the deal. Besides, the deal was contingent on the pilots all along. The story w
31 Sjoerd : The press releases clearly say what AC will do now : introduce 3 aircraft of a type already in their fleet next year and at some point they will start
32 Krisyyz : The 777 was never meant as a 767 replacement just as a replacement of the Airbus wide bodies. AC also stated that it will not buy anymore A340's due
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