Propulsion From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2004, 294 posts, RR: 3 Posted (10 years 2 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 2515 times:
Hello. I was just wondering having read other recent posts, which aircraft would make more sense to find a replacement for first? The 737 or 777?
They are both doing well in sales, but the prospects for the A-market and other early 777's appears to be due to experience some dwindling once the 787 (less so) and A350 (more so) really get going as alternatives (for some variants).
On the otherhand, would a 737 replacement mass seller be a better bet to gain a headstart against a future A320 replacement or can this market afford to wait? Indeed, would be best to see what Airbus offers first or not?
Additionally, to what extent would the decision be dependent upon the go-ahead or otherwise for a 747Adv? I know it may make matters more pressing towards the 777, but the -200LR and -300ER seem to be doing well, although they will obviously not be suitable as direct replacements for the other early generation 777s for all carriers.
Your thoughts and comments are much appreciated. Thank you.
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Lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 14376 posts, RR: 100
Reply 3, posted (10 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 2310 times:
There is already strong demand for a 737 capable of trans-Atlantic range. Basically a 757 replacement in range with a 737 size pax load.
Quoting Propulsion (Reply 2):
It is because of this that I wonder whther it might well be worth waiting for the A320 replacement first? Or would that not be good commercial sense?
Whomever goes 2nd can customize the airframe for the market that the 1st misses. However, if the first 737/320 replacement is good, economies of scale will give a *huge* 1st mover advantage a la 707 vs. DC-8 where routes were "owned" by the airline who received delivery 1st.
Quoting Propulsion (Thread starter):
Additionally, to what extent would the decision be dependent upon the go-ahead or otherwise for a 747Adv?
Nyet. The 773ER is competitive for another 7 or 8 years. At that point, that market segment will be saturated for another 5-7 years. While you are correct that the demand for the 777 replacement will be dependent somewhat on the availability of the 747adv, we're talking too far out to effect the decision to replace the 737.
Personally, I believe the economics of the E-jets will force an earlier replacement of the 737 than Boeing would like. But that's just my opinion.