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YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP  
User currently offlineVivavegas From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 505 posts, RR: 1
Posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3977 times:

Looks like YX is starting this round with the following e-mail that arrived this afternoon:

"You Can't Beat $99 Roundtrip to Minneapolis/St. Paul!
Get a small group of friends together to shop, sightsee or take in the Twin Cities' arts. We've lowered the minimum group size as well as the fare. Save big while you have fun!
Each group reservation must include 6 to 10 people.
Travel together July 10 through December 17.
Book your tickets by December 14.
Three-day advance purchase required.
$99 per person roundtrip includes federal tax; other security, facility and segment fees are extra.
This offer is only for group travel between Milwaukee and Minneapolis/St. Paul.
Book soon as space is limited and blackout dates (Sept. 2-6 and Nov. 22-28) apply. Tickets are nonrefundable.
Designate a group leader to handle all reservations and to make a single payment for all tickets.
Make your group reservation through Midwest's Group Sales office at 414-570-3655 or 888-601-4296. Monday through Friday, 8 a.m.-5 p.m.
TIP: Light rail service is now available from the Humphrey Terminal to the Metrodome, Nicollet Mall and Mall of America. View the light rail service map."

They preface it by saying for group travel only, but $99 including fed taxes is the lowest fare ever between MKE-MSP. No response yet from NW.

Are loads that poor between MKE-MSP to justify $99 fares? Can any money be made on this?

Craig
MKE

[Edited 2005-06-22 00:04:10]


MKE / EYW / LAS - The true trifecta of aviation!
64 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAirTran737 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3704 posts, RR: 12
Reply 1, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3941 times:
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Let's see if YX just woke up the sleeping giant that is NW. I expect a reaction from NW regarding theses low fares, be it added capacity, or lowered fares.


Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever
User currently offlineFutureFO From Ireland, joined Oct 2001, 3132 posts, RR: 21
Reply 2, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3914 times:

The loads are awesome on the MKE-MSP run. Almost full on all round trips. 3 on the 717 and 2 on the FRJ.


Sean from MCO and MKE



I Don't know where I am anymore
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17442 posts, RR: 46
Reply 3, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3896 times:

How is NW doing on their routes out of MKE? I've heard they are doing horribly on stuff out of MKE and IND.


E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineTango-Bravo From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 3805 posts, RR: 29
Reply 4, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3889 times:

Why should NW be so foolish as to react to YX? If I were NW, I would be thinking "more power to you, YX." But then again I will be the last to ever accuse the management of a hardcore legacy like NW of thinking and acting rationally.

It won't siphon away any of NW's better-yielding traffic and it sounds like the YX fare is so restricted as to be mostly a mirage. Beyond that, what happens when one or more members of "the group" decide they have to do their own thing and travel at a different time/date from the rest of "the group?" Wherever there is a "group" reservation of 6-10 people initially booked on the same itinerary, by the time it's over there are almost invariably at least 2-3 different itineraries actually flown by members of "the group." Will the individuals who do their own thing end up paying a fare difference of $300-400 -- maybe more -- plus change fee because they no longer qualify for the group fare? And what if by one or more of the "group" changing from the group reservation the "group" becomes less than 6 pax? Will they all have their proverbial eyes gouged out by being required to pay up to the applicable non-group fares? Or is there a restriction not noted that the group-rate tickets are non-changeable and have zero value toward another ticket if not used for the flights/times originally ticketed? (ie use-it-or-lose-it)


User currently offlineKnope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2895 posts, RR: 30
Reply 5, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3885 times:

I think there are some key reasons why this $99 sale is a net positive for Midwest and not a sign of trouble.

(1) It's Group Travel Only
This fare is good only for groups of 6-10 people. The passengers they carry at this fare will very likely be new stimulated traffic that would not have otherwise flown. How many groups of 6-10 people would Midwest have carried otherwise between MKE and MSP? But with a fare like this, there will be some family outings, groups of friends, etc that chose this as a getaway outing.

(2) Exposure and Publicity
A fare of $99 round trip is definitely something that catches the eye of those who get the e-mail. (Not sure if went to all Midwest frequent fliers, but that’s how I received it.) Yes, we get regular e-mails with fare specials. But an unheard of fare like this – though it is not one that most will be able to use – cements in the memory that Midwest flies to Minneapolis and they might have some great fares. That makes the person more likely to remember and check out Midwest. Remember that Northwest (and the airlines they acquired) has had no major competition in Milwaukee-Minneapolis for over 40 years. So Midwest needs to get the word out that there is a real choice in the market now. And getting people to experience Midwest, the 717 and the Humphrey Terminal will definitely make an impression.

(3) Yield Similar to Connecting Traffic
Is a $99 round trip profitable for Midwest between MKE and MSP? Not if that’s all they are carrying. But as supplemental revenue added to higher-fare local traffic, it’s probably not bad. It probably is somewhat similar to what Midwest earns for the MSP-MKE leg when they sell an excursion fare in a market like MSP-LGA. The fare MSP-LGA is much higher than $99 round trip, but Midwest has to carry the customer on four legs to earn that fare.

Again, this $99 round trip is mostly going to be sold to new traffic in a very specific range that is stimulated by the offer. It will cannibalize very little if any existing higher-fare traffic. And it will buy some exposure and publicity in the minds of some of the flying public.

As for loads, well, if you look out into mid July there are already many MKE-MSP 717 flights which are already booked to load factors in the 60’s and 70’s. Certainly not all, and this is definitely the high-demand Summer season. I don’t think this $99 round trip for group fares means they are having a tough time selling seats. They appear to be doing okay now, undoubtedly selling many connecting seats, too. As long as they keep seats open for the local business traffic that tends to book largely in a 14 day window, sales like this probably are a net positive.


User currently offlineVivavegas From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 505 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3868 times:

From what I'm hearing from my co-workers flying into Humphrey is awesome! (have yet to make that run lately) From plane to curb is like 3 minutes. Glad to see they are playing off the lightrail to in that e-mail. Definitely a benefit!

Craig
MKE



MKE / EYW / LAS - The true trifecta of aviation!
User currently offlineN917ME From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 730 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3860 times:

Sales like this are also used to get the loyal NWA customers to give YX a try. Once someone travels YX, they usually will be a repeat customer, not only to MSP, but systemwide.
The load factors have been great system wide. Most of the flights I have seen have been full or very close to being full.
This sale is a good thing for YX. I have heard that NW load factors from MKE are not that great. MKE has been a fierce battle for some time, however with NW internal issues and financial issues the playing field is leveling out as NW may not be as focused on MKE as it is on it's internal issues. However, I fully expect NW to fire back. Let the battle begin!!!! YX=1 NW=0


User currently offlineM404 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 2226 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3844 times:
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If the loads are so good as quoted above, then why cut the price?


Less sarcasm and more thought equal better understanding
User currently offlineN917ME From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 730 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3832 times:

Quoting M404 (Reply 8):
If the loads are so good as quoted above, then why cut the price?

To attract new customers.....new customers=repeat customers=additional revenue. Also , beat NW to the punch.


User currently offlineLuv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 12099 posts, RR: 49
Reply 10, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3829 times:
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Quoting M404 (Reply 8):
If the loads are so good as quoted above, then why cut the price?

I have to agree!

[Edited 2005-06-22 01:30:55]


You can cut the irony with a knife
User currently offlineN917ME From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 730 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3801 times:

It is just great to see YX defending MKE!

User currently offlineAirTran737 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3704 posts, RR: 12
Reply 12, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3782 times:
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Quoting FutureFO (Reply 2):
The loads are awesome on the MKE-MSP run. Almost full on all round trips. 3 on the 717 and 2 on the FRJ

Actually I pulled up the loads for tomorrows flights (6-22) and they are as follows.

Flight 2010 is booked to 31 out of 32
Flight 301 is booked to 41 out of 88
Flight 305 is booked to 54 out of 88
Flight 2016 is booked to 27 out of 32
Flight 309 is booked to 64 out of 88.

Comes out to about 66% of the seats for the day being sold. Not to bad, but what is the break even factor for Midwest? I'm sure that the Skyway flights are making money only having 1 and 5 seats open respectively. The Midwest flights have 47, 33, and 24 seats open respectively.



Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever
User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3771 times:

Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 4):
Why should NW be so foolish as to react to YX? If I were NW, I would be thinking "more power to you, YX." But then again I will be the last to ever accuse the management of a hardcore legacy like NW of thinking and acting rationally.

By my numbers, at $99 a seat Midwest can make a killing on this route. The seat cost for the trip is about $30 a pax. They only have to fill 30 seats to break even.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22923 posts, RR: 20
Reply 14, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3763 times:

Does NW really care about MKE-MSP O&D traffic? Average O&D is only 424 pax/day, and there are currently 406 seats on YX (3 717, 2 FRJ) and 915 seats on NW (2 752, 1 753, 1 320, 1 CRJ, and 2 D95). It's only about a third O&D traffic (probably actually somewhat lower than that). I feel like NW would have more cause to worry if YX tried a similar stunt on MKE-LGA.


I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineN917ME From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 730 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3763 times:

For MSP to MKE the loads are as follows (22jun05)

302 booked to 53 of 88
2011 booked to 27 of 32
407 booked to 55 of 88
109 booked to 46 of 88
2017 booked to 29 of 32


I am curious, what NW numbers look like for 22jun?


User currently offlineKnope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2895 posts, RR: 30
Reply 16, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3762 times:

>>If the loads are so good as quoted above, then why cut the price?<<

I'll echo N917ME's comment of "to attract new customers", because indeed once someone knows about and had experienced Midwest they are much more likely to seek them out.

But I do have a few other points to add to this question of "why cut the price if loads are good?"

(a) While loads have improved, there are still plenty of empty seats. Midwest exanded their capacity by 240% over the course of several weeks, and it's taking time to grow the traffic accordingly. What I've been seeing on seat maps the past couple of weeks is several flights with 60-75% of the seats sold, but others are only in the 30's, 40's and 50%'s. This major capacity expansion is only a few weeks old, and there's room for more passengers.

(b) The $99 round trip fare is, again, just a promotional fare for groups of 6-10 people. Seating is limited, and it will probably only add a small number of passengers overall to thise market. But these passengers are likely all or nearly all newly-stimulated traffic. It's very much like Northwest's periodic Mall of America one-day packages where NW has flown people up to MSP for remarkably low prices on shopping junkets. As long as you're careful not to dilute any business traffic that might try to use these fares, you're growing passengers and revenue out of thin air and carrying them for very little expense. This is the type of thing that Midwest is going for with this promotional fare.


User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3755 times:

Quoting N917ME (Reply 15):
302 booked to 53 of 88
2011 booked to 27 of 32
407 booked to 55 of 88
109 booked to 46 of 88
2017 booked to 29 of 32

Ca-ching...$14K in profit right there.


User currently offlineN917ME From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 730 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3753 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 14):
Does NW really care about MKE-MSP O&D traffic?

Obviously they do, look at the aircraft they run in that market.

BTW, did any notice the advertising that YX is doing in MSP? YX is finally being aggressive and I believe it is working.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 14):
915 seats on NW (2 752, 1 753, 1 320, 1 CRJ, and 2 D95

If NW didn't care, why do they have 3 large aircraft (752/3) going there? What are the loads on those flights?

[Edited 2005-06-22 02:04:12]

User currently offlineSupa7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3747 times:

7E7,

Your numbers leave a lot to be desired. The fare is about $45 each way (in revenue), which would equal their costs assuming a CASM of 15c (a good guess for a 300 mi route in their config).

This new fare will pad their empty flights, so it's smart... but very risky to provoke an airline that can utterly replace YX in a heartbeat.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22923 posts, RR: 20
Reply 20, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3741 times:

Quoting N917ME (Reply 18):
If NW didn't care, why do they have 3 large aircraft (752/3) going there? What are the loads on those flights?

By your logic, when NW was running 752s MDW-MSP, they cared more about MDW than ORD because ORD didn't get any 752s. NW is probably the best US major at matching capacity to demand-- they can be as they have pretty much a continuum of aircraft. I assume they send the 757s because they fill them. There would be no other reason. I for one would rather fly a smaller a/c on the route. Quicker boarding, quicker deplaning, less of a wait for luggage, etc.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineN917ME From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 730 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3723 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 20):
NW is probably the best US major at matching capacity to demand

LOL... if they were they would not be heading down the CH 11 path. Granted, that is not the only reason. Fuel prices have a lot to do with it.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22923 posts, RR: 20
Reply 22, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3703 times:

Quoting N917ME (Reply 21):
LOL... if they were they would not be heading down the CH 11 path. Granted, that is not the only reason. Fuel prices have a lot to do with it.

Who's better? NW can switch DC9-30s and -40s and 319s and 320s at practically the drop of a hat. I know you're a YX partisan, but please try to make some sense.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineKnope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2895 posts, RR: 30
Reply 23, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3710 times:

>>Comes out to about 66% of the seats for the day being sold. Not to bad, but what is the break even factor for Midwest? <<

The concept of "break even load factor" is very problematic.

The composition and yield of traffic makes all the difference in the world. Let's say for illustration there are four types of travelers in that market:

LB-Local Business (local MKE-MSP passengers who pay higher fares)

LE-Local Excursion (local MKE-MSP passengers who fly on chepaer advance-purchase fares)

CT-Connecting Traditional (pax in markets like MSP-MKE-PHL who pay normal fares)

CO-Connecting Opaque (pax in markets like MSP-MKE-PHL who get rock-bottom fares in places like Priceline)

And let's say these are the typical fares each group pays:

LB Local Business fares average $220 each way

LE Local Excursion fares average $105 each way

CT Connecting Traditional fares average $50 each way. That's because the average fare is $125 each way, but because of the connection, only 40% of the fare gets allocated to MSP-MKE ($40). The other 60% (MKE-PHL, for example) gets allocated to the other leg.

CO Connecting Opaque fares average $36 each way. Average fare is $90 each way but only 40% is allocated to MSP-MKE leg.

There are 217 people booked MKE-MSP tomorrow. Here's one possible breakdown of that traffic into the four categories:

LB 95
LE 55
CT 62
CO 10

That's $29,035 of revenue from MSP to MKE tomorrow.

Here's a different possible breakdown:

LB 21
LE 30
CT 55
CO 111

That same load of 217 in this instance produces $14,516 in revenue, or only 1/2 of first scenario.

So the notion of break even load factor is hard to reconcile with this kind of reality. If the cost for Midwest to fly MSP-MKE tomorrow is $24,000 (and this number iteself is really hard to know), in one case the 66% load tomorrow is very profitable. In the other case it is very much in the red.


User currently offlineBurnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7538 posts, RR: 8
Reply 24, posted (9 years 2 months 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3655 times:

Quoting N917ME (Reply 15):
For MSP to MKE the loads are as follows (22jun05)

302 booked to 53 of 88
2011 booked to 27 of 32
407 booked to 55 of 88
109 booked to 46 of 88
2017 booked to 29 of 32


I am curious, what NW numbers look like for 22jun?

NW for June 22nd.

NW 189 booked 20/22 and 137/160 (757-200)
NW 361 booked 20/24 and 201/200 (757-300)
NW 1951 booked 5/16 and 113/109 (DC-9-50)
NW 2816 booked 31/44 (CRJ-200)
NW 185 booked 14/16 and 106/132 (A320)
NW 1955 booked 15/16 and 96/94 (DC-9-40)
NW 847 booked 21/22 and 157/160 (757-200)

Thats directly from PARS, with that, i dont think NW is worried about YX  Wink



"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009
25 USFlyer MSP : Its been my anecdotal experience that YX's flights out to/from MSP are frequently behind schedule (along with 20 min connections at MKE) causing them
26 Nwcoflyer : Please! What a statement. NW has some of the highest load factors in the industry and the highest of the legacies. But high load factors clearly dont
27 Knope2001 : >>Its been my anecdotal experience that YX's flights out to/from MSP are frequently behind schedule (along with 20 min connections at MKE) causing the
28 Knope2001 : A few general comments related to several posts: (1) MSP-MKE definitely *is* important to both Northwest and Midwest. It is a market with both signifi
29 Indy : Can't speak for MKE but from what I've seen they are doing wonderful out of IND. Excellent loads (except for the STL route). Whether they are making
30 Mlsrar : Hmmm...Northwest has a larger customer base, and is focusing on expanding it. NW is offering 8500 bonus miles, and Silver Elite status to anyone who
31 Knope2001 : To sum up how loads have looked: --The high-volume leisure routes have done okay, although except for LAS not what you'd want on a junky leisure mark
32 Flyinryan99 : Knope...who do ya work for? You've got some great analysis of the MKE market, thanks! If you can't say, email me at flyinryan99@yahoo.com. I'd like to
33 Pilottim747 : New service to IAH is starting July 10th. Otherwise I think YX has been pretty cautious with their expansion, and rightly so. pilottim747
34 FutureFO : Houston Hobby is starting on 10Jul. That is the next city we are opening. Still waiting to hear if there are any others coming up. Sean from MCO and M
35 Knope2001 : Thanks for the compliment! I don't work in the airline industry or anything related, but this has been a serious hobby of mine for years. The air ind
36 Post contains images Flyinryan99 : You're quite welcome I realized my mistake on the Houston opening and edited it just as everyone else was posting....my bad Anyways, I ask if they are
37 Sideflare75 : Can you provide some kind of hard numbers to back up these claims. In the first quarter of this year NW's cash on hand decreased by 327 million. YX's
38 Vivavegas : They probably referring to the oft-delay ERJ program (not a good fit for Skyway in my opinion, would rather see a Q400 in Skyway Blue). The -80's wou
39 Sideflare75 : No all the manpower is gone. We even have openings on our schedules that just took effect. We are running pretty lean on the maintenance side of thin
40 SkyexRamper : Oh geezz...now where would we put more than 2 Q400s, because thats about all we could fit @ D52.
41 Vivavegas : Remember, things aren't always constant.... i.e. US West? Looks like a bit of space might open on that end of "D". Before anyone says it - "Bombardie
42 N917ME : Really???? Thank you for the insight, Captain Obvious! Of Course NW has a larger customer base as they are ar WORLDWIDE carrier! Sounds like a desper
43 AirTran737 : Actually YX has changed the delivery slots on the 717 to one a quarter. Also, YX has said that they will not exercise their options for the 25 additi
44 N917me : We are getting one in October and one in December of this year (two in Q4). Technically not exercising options is not deferring.
45 FutureFO : Also there have been rumours about a replacement for the -80's. I have heard from some pilots about either the used 757-200 market or the 737NG market
46 Mlsrar : But not Milwaukee's "hometown," carrier. Somewhat of a misnomer considreing NW carriers more pax out of MKE I guess you need to evaluate the differen
47 Post contains images A330323X : Ha, that's nothing. US and DL are offering Silver status for a single flight out of each other's key markets.
48 Knope2001 : Not even close. The most recent monthly stats show that Midwest carried almost twice the number of passengers that Northwest did at MKE. Here are the
49 AirTran737 : How many of those Midwest People are O/D traffic? We know that 95% of the NW ones are, but I am curious about the YX.
50 Knope2001 : Giving away Silver Elite status almost at the drop of a hat runs the danger of diluting the vaule of that level for those who actually earn it by fly
51 Knope2001 : That's not quite a clear-cut thing to answer, but we have a couple of ways to estimate. First, on a recent call (I believe it was the most recent qua
52 Knope2001 : This should say: The "screened" figure is *not* at all related to how many people that TSA actually examined. Sorry for the mistake
53 SkyexRamper : Craig, D51-53 will be used by Midwest in the long run, not skyway. Skyway is suppose to get the UAX gates but those would only come around if we got
54 Post contains links Vivavegas : Oddly enough Midwest just did press release on Milwaukee market share, I can't remember a time in the past they have done this: http://biz.yahoo.com/p
55 N917ME : To: All Midwest and Skyway Airlines Employees Date: June 23, 2005 From: T.E. Hoeksema Subject: Great News: Market Share Update I'm pleased to share gr
56 N917ME : Exactly!! That is one of the biggest gripes among elite members who actually earned the status, upgrades and perks are harder to get because of the a
57 Burnsie28 : Didnt know it was a "race" now. It will in the same since try and get those people to Gold and Platinum, silver level never really did much for anyon
58 FutureFO : Oh yeah, At YX and AL, we still have pillows and blankets, magazines, snacks, and the Best Care in the Air. Can NW top that??????????? Sean MCO and MK
59 Knope2001 : Silver still does something for you (although not as much as it once did). But when the Silver pool expands to include lots and lots of people who ar
60 Burnsie28 : So Midwest has pillows and NW doesnt, big deal, do you know whats on those YUCK!
61 JBo : You're thinking of Super 8, not Midwest. Methinks you're jumping to conclusions a bit. I'm sure YX changes the linens frequently and often. Probably
62 Cubsrule : Silver on NW is sufficient to prereserve bulkheads, which are probably the best seats on most of their domestic aircraft except for really wide peopl
63 Mlsrar : I shall preface this by saying that I haven't been silver for a LONG time, but, the pool doesn't seem to be too diluted, as there doesn't seem to be
64 Knope2001 : I've never been Silver on NW myself, but my close friend who has been Silver on NW for several years says that they are (comparably) a dime-a-dozen n
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