Airline Analyst Says DL And NW Lean To 11. — Civil Aviation Forum

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Airline Analyst Says DL And NW Lean To 11.

Isitsafenow From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4984 posts, RR: 26
Posted (7 years 12 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2794 times:

An airline analysts said today at a transportation aviation subcommittee meeting that DL has a 55 percent chance of filing for chapter 11 by June of 06 and NW a 43 percent if congress does nothing about pension laws and oil prices remain stable at current levels. He added that AA and CO has a less than 50 percent today of filing within one year but that will change if congress does NOT change the pension laws.
In another reading NW pensions are underfunded by 3.8 billion dollars but UA is closer to 9 billion.
safe

If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.

10 replies: All unread, jump to last

LUV4JFK From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 462 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (7 years 12 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2722 times:

And here we all thought the best financially of the big 6 were Northwest and Continental. I guess, for now, Continental seems to be keeping its head above water.

LUV4JFK
yes

John F. Kennedy International Airport: Where America Greets The World.

PlaneSmart From New Zealand, joined Dec 2004, 739 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (7 years 12 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2721 times:

Less financially secure airlines have improved their survival outlook by significantly reducing costs while in Chap 11. This is creating an entirely forseeable ripple effect, where airlines that were / are more financially secure are eyeing opportunities to achieve similar savings.

Question is when, not if, remaining legacies will head into Chap 11. Reality is that if they don't extract similar cost savings, sooner of later they will have to go there.

Or Congress could change Chap 11 laws, ensuring some better run airlines will have to negotiate similar savings or fail.

United Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 8803 posts, RR: 17
Reply 3, posted (7 years 12 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2666 times:

Can you please post the link? Thanks

Burnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7419 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (7 years 12 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2594 times:

Funny, because management hasnt even threatened Chapter 11, they have even said they wont likely go into Chap. 11 for protection (like UA and US) because it would cost far too much.

"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009

Isitsafenow From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4984 posts, RR: 26
Reply 5, posted (7 years 12 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2593 times:

UNITEDAIRLINE...www.usaviation.com then go to aviation news. There's a lot of up-to-date info thereand it changes daily.
safe

If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.

FI642 From Monaco, joined Mar 2005, 1059 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (7 years 12 months 5 hours ago) and read 2385 times:

Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

NEVER count NW out. Things there are not as bad as everyone (including management) wants folks to believe.

737MAX, Cool Planes for the Worlds Coolest Airline.

Tornado82 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (7 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 2235 times:

Quoting FI642 (Reply 6):
NEVER count NW out. Things there are not as bad as everyone (including management) wants folks to believe.

NW has alot of olllllllllllllld planes. Yeah they're "paid for" now... but if they're not turning huge profits now, they sure as hell won't be turning them when they have to (by regulations) replace those DC9's and take on a whole bunch of leases.

Jumbojet From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1159 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (7 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2105 times:

Here is an article as it relates to Delta's woes. In particular, here are two quotes from the article. It seems troublesome indeed for DL

"Runte wrote that it was going to be "exceptionally challenging for the company to avoid a liquidity-induced bankruptcy."

""We have great admiration for the savings undertaken by the company," Runte wrote. "However, as (Delta chief executive officer Gerald) Grinstein paraphrased Vince Lombardi in a recent interview - 'sometimes the clock just runs out.' "

"Runte also said it would be difficult for Delta to "hedge" any of its fuel - or lock in lower prices on a contract basis - because of its lack of credit"

Finally, here is the link to the whole article

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d.../20050625/BIZ01/506250332/1076/BIZ

ClipperNo1 From Germany, joined May 1999, 671 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (7 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2006 times:

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 7):
NW has alot of olllllllllllllld planes.

Gee, thanks for bringing that up. I totally forgot about it. checkmark

Quoting Jumbojet (Reply 8):
"However, as (Delta chief executive officer Gerald) Grinstein paraphrased Vince Lombardi in a recent interview - 'sometimes the clock just runs out.' "

Whoa, now that's a motivation boost for employees.

"I really don't know one plane from the other. To me they are just marginal costs with wings."Ã¯Â¿Â½ Alfred Kahn, 1977

Tornado82 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (7 years 11 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 1935 times:

Quoting ClipperNo1 (Reply 9):

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 7):
NW has alot of olllllllllllllld planes.

Gee, thanks for bringing that up. I totally forgot about it. checkmark

Yeah I know THAT part was obvious... but the point I made with it seems valid. If they claim that keeping the DC-9s (which I'm totally indifferent to, I'm not Pro nor Con old planes) is helping them save loads of money because they are owned and paid off... and we all know that some of the DC-9s are approaching the end of their "legal" lives and are being retired in that time frame... they'll need replaced in the not-so-distant future by the regulations. That's definitely going to cost more in lease rates than it does to just maintain the old gas guzzlers now. So, replacement time could prove very costly for NW within a few years.

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