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Indian Aviation - The Sudden Expansion.  
User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 2254 times:

Recently, it seems that commercial aviation in India is and will be expanding at a very fast pace:

1. Large aircraft orders by Sahara and Jet Airways, with those airlines planning long haul services. Upstarts Kingfisher and Indigo airlines placing very significant orders for new aircraft.

2. Air India and Indian Airlines, which are challenged by bueraucratic problems and issues, have or are planning large aircraft orders and are suddenly expanding at a rapid pace.

3. Many airlines entering or expanding their service to India from Europe and to cities other than the traditional gateways of New Dehli and Mumbai.

4. Even CO wants part of the action, opening up a new EWR-Dehli nonstop.

Maybe one our Indian members can help me out - what event or events caused this huge sudden expansion of commercial aviaiton in India. For years, the growth of aviation in India has been at a rather slow and conservative pace, and now, in the matter of months, hundreds of new airliners are ordered, many new routes are being opened, and new airlines are planning to start operations in a big way. Has there been a change in governmental policy? Has demand suddenly increased? Has this very important growing market been ignored until recently?

Your insights would be appreciated.

18 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineRamerinianAir From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1486 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 2211 times:

I was wondering the same thing!
Was there an economic boom?
Were they deregulated?
Did they sign an open skies agreement?
SR



W N = my Worst Nightmare!!!!!
User currently offlineB747-437B From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 2203 times:

Quoting RamerinianAir (Reply 1):
Was there an economic boom?

Yes.

Quoting RamerinianAir (Reply 1):
Were they deregulated?

Yes.

Quoting RamerinianAir (Reply 1):
Did they sign an open skies agreement?

Yes.


User currently offlineKkfla737 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 1033 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 2170 times:

Well deregulation is qualified. Int'l services are limited to Air Inia, Indian Airlines, Sahara and Jet Airways and is not allowed for the new carriers as of yet. Also, Gulf routes are off limits for Jet and Sahara, however in other int'l markets they can use any unused portions of the bilateral agreements, but Air India does get the first shot at filling the assigned frequencies. An open skies deal was signed with the USA so Jet and Sahara have free reign in the US market.

User currently offlineSnehnath From India, joined Apr 2005, 99 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 2145 times:

Really a couple of reasons:

a. Conservative estimates are that 15 million people travel by train in India everyday. Assume that 14 million of these are people travelling to work over a short distance, that still leaves about 365 million people that travel for leisure/business on train over a long distance in a year. About 30% (110 million) of the people pay premium fares (Air conditioned sleepers) on train to travel distances which could be over a 1000 kms at an average speed of 50 kmph. They do it, not because the particularly enjoy the train experience and like taking over 48 hrs to reach a destination, its simply because there is no other affordable alternative. Compare that with 14 million people who flew by airlines in annually in India in 2004. There is a huge opportunity for airlines to attract these 110 million people to get onto a flight.

b. What the new start-up LCCs are doing is to provide affordable choice to these travellers at prices that are slightly higher than premium rates charged by the railways. With the overall expansion of the economy and the increase in disposable incomes, it becomes affordable and comparable for travellers to pay a $150 round trip on an airline and reach their destination in a couple of hours as opposed to a $100 round trip by train and take close to 24 hours.

c. While I have addressed the issues of domestic travel, outbound/inbound travel has been traditionally quite strong, with Indian diaspora only slightly less spread out over the world than the Chinese diaspora. Given the growth in the economy, business travel as a segment has grown tremendously too. The government was smart enough to realize that restrictive bilateral arrangements were causing a direct impact on business, with both Indian and foreign entrepreneurs unable to fly out/fly in to the country as and when they desired. This resulted in most of the Open Skies agreements you have seen signed by India with almost every country that matters. Of course, to protect AI's and IA's interests, the countries of the Middle-East have not been opened up to non-govt run Indian airlines.


User currently offlineBandA From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 338 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 2095 times:

I am very impressed with the commercial aviation boom in India, just afraid that its going to go down just as fast...

From what my family members say (those who have flown Jet Air and Sahara I beleive) the service is excellent. Better than most of the US carriers.

With such feedback I think Jet will do very well with the US route.



"They [Terrorists] never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." - GWB
User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31684 posts, RR: 56
Reply 6, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 1941 times:

Too many Operators entering the LCC market.Unless the Infrastructure grows too there will be problems.
I believe its a Two year boom bubble.After the 2nd year there will be stability but not without casualties.
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 1857 times:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1154418.cms

The fiscal year 2004-2005 recorded a 22% increase in total number of passengers to nearly 60 million total pax.

That is phenomenal.

As long as India keeps meeting its economic growth targets of 7-8% annually (it should be 8-10% if they want to significantly reduce poverty), then air traffic will keep growing at about twice the rate of economic growth (a conservative estimate).


User currently offlineKaran69 From India, joined Oct 2004, 2889 posts, RR: 17
Reply 8, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 1805 times:

The growth of the bubble has begun but make no mistake it will burst eventually in 3 years or so.

There is great potential to tap into the untouched market of atleast 400 million pax a year as mentioned in one of the posts above.


User currently offlineB747-437B From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 1798 times:

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 7):

The fiscal year 2004-2005 recorded a 22% increase in total number of passengers to nearly 60 million total pax. That is phenomenal.

It is simply a commentary on how badly infrastructure development is needed. Indian aviation is a disaster waiting to happen and I sure hope it won't take the loss of too many lives for somebody to wake up and realise.


User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 1779 times:

Yes, service with Air India was down-right lousy in 1990-1991, never again I said. Flew with Indian Airlines and Jet Airways last year domestically in India
and both where OK. Dehli international airport was a chaos, but I was impressed by Chennai and Port Blair was a cinderella place (this was before the tsunami and earthquakes).


User currently offlineUnited777 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1657 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 1763 times:

It's great to see the Indian avation boom happen but they need to do something about the airports QUICKLY. Both domestic and international airports.

User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 1749 times:

Not all, Chennai is OK, Dehli domestic OK as well, Port Blair I don´t know how damaged it become. Dehli international, horror, definitly need to improve.

User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 1748 times:

Quoting Karan69 (Reply 8):
The growth of the bubble has begun but make no mistake it will burst eventually in 3 years or so.

There is great potential to tap into the untouched market of atleast 400 million pax a year as mentioned in one of the posts above.

Well, which is it? If there is an untapped market that is growing at 20% annually to reach a potential 400 million passengers, then there is no bubble. It's just supply reacting to demand.

Quoting B747-437B (Reply 9):
It is simply a commentary on how badly infrastructure development is needed. Indian aviation is a disaster waiting to happen and I sure hope it won't take the loss of too many lives for somebody to wake up and realise.

Is anything being done about it? Is ATC being updated?
Does anyone in the Civ Aviation Ministry even remember the disaster at Chakri Dadri?


User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31684 posts, RR: 56
Reply 14, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 1627 times:

Quoting United777 (Reply 11):
It's great to see the Indian avation boom happen but they need to do something about the airports QUICKLY. Both domestic and international airports

The AAI PLAN states 6-8 bays will be ready by 2005 end & 18 bays to be constructed between 2006-2008,including Taxitrack for Rnwy 32.
But thats a PLAN  Smile

Also rumour is that S2 might be making HYD main base & 9W might shift Few more BOM stops to AMD.

regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineMrNiji From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 1572 times:

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 12):
Dehli domestic OK as well,

Sorry, but I disagree.. it is a slaughterhouse


User currently offlineAseem From India, joined Feb 2005, 2046 posts, RR: 10
Reply 16, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 1557 times:

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 13):
Is anything being done about it? Is ATC being updated?
Does anyone in the Civ Aviation Ministry even remember the disaster at Chakri Dadri?

nothing to do with ATC, the incident at Chakri Dadri was due to conflicting technologies of the two aircrafts. While the Saudi B747's instruments used metric units, those of IL-76 used english...so the confusion.
rgds
VT-ASJ



ala re ala, VT-ALA ala
User currently offlineMrniji From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 1545 times:

Quoting Aseem (Reply 16):
While the Saudi B747's instruments used metric units, those of IL-76 used english

Other way round.. the Saidia used inperial.. btw, still the ATC should have prevented the disaster


User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31684 posts, RR: 56
Reply 18, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 1547 times:

Quoting Aseem (Reply 16):
nothing to do with ATC, the incident at Chakri Dadri was due to conflicting technologies of the two aircrafts. While the Saudi B747's instruments used metric units, those of IL-76 used english...so the confusion

And Then came TCAS which was Mandatory for all Indian registered Aircraft.Although its C/F under MEL though.
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
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