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How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?  
User currently offlineGoCOgo From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 701 posts, RR: 1
Posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6790 times:

A friend of mine at work inquired about Independence Air today. He was looking to go to HPN in October, and was wondering if it safe to get tickets with FlyI, who are the cheapest. I told him that they were doing poorly, couldn't break even right now if they wanted to (based on someones quick calculation I read on this forum that their break even load factor was over 100%), and barring a buyout/bailout, they could easily be gone soon.

So, what do you all think? Would it be safe to buy Indy Air tickets for October? Are they longed for this world?

By the way, this thread is by no means meant to bash Independence Air, nor should any of you start. I am simply inquiring about their status.

(Edited so none of you complain about the title)

[Edited 2005-06-29 23:43:42]


"Why you fly is your business, how you fly is ours"
45 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineTrident2e From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6760 times:

That's the $64,000 question. People have been saying they'll be gone soon since they started, and they've all been proved wrong so far!

User currently offlineIflyI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6725 times:

Load factors are increasing (Just look at the bookings for the next month) and things are improving for us at Independence Air. I would have no problems with buying the tickets (that is not because I am an employee either, if I was not I still would buy the tickets.) I see things improving. We will still be here to serve you next year as well.

Jason in SAV


User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 3, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6717 times:

There has not been much news lately - I Air now has about 10 out of its 12 A319s in service so that should help to improve their financial performance. The A319s will fly some longerhaul routes which should help yeilds and revenue and the new destinations will help make the IAD hub work better since more interesting connection possibilities are available. And, it is the high demand summer period when people are travelling and fares are higher, so I Air should be OK for the short term future.

My guess (and its only a guess) is that I Air will make it though atleast the end of this year.....the bigger question is whether this airline have enough money to make it through the difficult winter season when airlines traditionally loose money, a lot depends on the I Air's performance in the coming months. That being said, $60/bbl oil prices are not making things any easier, and its especially difficult for an airline like I Air that got off to a difficult start and uses small CRJs for many flights (which are not that economical on a per seat basis).....low fares and high operating costs is a dangerous combination.


User currently offlineAirWillie6475 From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 2448 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6682 times:

I was listening to a travel show and according to them it's ok to buy a ticket from an airline that's about to be bankrupt because there is a new law now where the airline can't just take your money when it stops operations, instead they have a few days to accomodate you in finding another ticket.

User currently offlineAvek00 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4387 posts, RR: 19
Reply 5, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6655 times:

DH is doing poorly as usual, though FWIW, I think their breakeven LF has probably fallen down to just below 100%. Or with higher fuel costs, maybe not...


Live life to the fullest.
User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25424 posts, RR: 49
Reply 6, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6614 times:

It will be very interesting to see the Q2 numbers which will be released in the next month.
Its clear the airline will suffer a significant loss for Q2. Even higher load factors, reduced CASM due increased A319 flying will not offset the very poor yields FlyI has been getting and very high fuel cost the industry is suffering under.
During Q1 the airlines operating margin was an incredible -70% margin. So basically for each $1 the airline receives it spends near $2.
Another critical number to look for will be the cash on hand the airline ends the quarter with. Cash burn rate had been very high.

Check out the financial numbers.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=FLYI

My personal view would be to avoid the airline. Why subject yourself to the potential headache of something happening to the airline. Even if its in business whom it to say it will continue to serve HPN? FlyI has all ready trimmed its schedule and dropped out from several markets.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineLorM From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 409 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6576 times:

Sort o' off topic,

Last month I flew in and out of OKC Will Rogers World Airport (nice new terminal), there were at least half a dozen or more Independence Air CRJs still in company colors with their circle logos removed, sitting on the north ramp by 17R. Also there was 2 UAX Dornier 328s parked in the same fashion.



Brick Windows
User currently offlineAvek00 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4387 posts, RR: 19
Reply 8, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 6567 times:

Based on the Q1 figures, and the various machinations of Q2, DH will probably report SLIGHTLY better figures than this for Q2 2005, but not by much.

"Independence Air - Freedom ain't all it's cracked up to be."


First Quarter Operating Statistics



(Decrease)
Three months ended March 31, 2004 2005 Increase
Revenue passengers carried 1,479,623 1,276,462 (13.7)%
Revenue passenger miles (000's) 631,489 578,456 (8.4)%
Available seat miles (000's) 961,747 963,284 0.2%
Passenger load factor 65.7% 60.1% (5.6)pts
Revenue per ASM (cents) 18.1 9.0 (50.3)%
Cost per ASM (cents) 17.9 19.9 11.2 %
Cost per ASM (cents), adjusted (1) 17.2 18.2 5.8%
Average passenger segment (miles) 427 453 6.1%
Revenue departures (completed) 49,873 40,020 (19.8)%
Total block hours 77,964 60,484 (22.4)%
Aircraft utilization (block hours) 7.8 8.0 2.6%
Average cost per gal/fuel (cents) 124.4 163.5 31.4%
Aircraft in service (end of period) 109 82 (24.8)%
Revenue per departure $3,496 $2,156 (38.3)%

[Edited 2005-06-30 00:36:21]


Live life to the fullest.
User currently offlineLuv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 12110 posts, RR: 48
Reply 9, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 6561 times:
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Quoting AirWillie6475 (Reply 4):
I was listening to a travel show and according to them it's ok to buy a ticket from an airline that's about to be bankrupt because there is a new law now where the airline can't just take your money when it stops operations, instead they have a few days to accomodate you in finding another ticket.

It is not a new law, it is a law that other carriers have to honor the ticket with a slight service charge of $25.00 I believe, and not sure if that is OW or RT and of course it is stand by with the other carrier. So again it is not a sure thing that is for sure.



You can cut the irony with a knife
User currently offlineAvion346 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 184 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 6552 times:

Yields are going up especially on the west coast flights. I'm even seeing a lot less "E" fares and a lot more "B" and "A" fares in Detroit. Tomorrow in particular both the "to" and the "from" legs for LAX, SFO (all 3 flights), SEA, SJC, and SAN are completely 100% sold out.

User currently offlineChiguire From Venezuela, joined Sep 2004, 2005 posts, RR: 16
Reply 11, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 6541 times:

Well, I am not very familiar with the US market. I am just following a bit those discussions about FlyI.
From what I can say from the general point of view, it would be very unusual to see an LCC going bankrupt before high season.
If you take into consideration that they receive the money at the time of booking, their cash flow should be fine these weeks of the year - despite overall losses.
So if something happens, I would not expect that before September. And this counts for all LCCs around the world !
I would buy a ticket if travel is until September.


User currently offlineAvek00 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4387 posts, RR: 19
Reply 12, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 6532 times:

Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 9):
It is not a new law, it is a law that other carriers have to honor the ticket with a slight service charge of $25.00 I believe, and not sure if that is OW or RT and of course it is stand by with the other carrier. So again it is not a sure thing that is for sure.

Specifically, USA airlines are required to honor the domestic tickets of a defunct USA carrier on a standby basis, and may assess a reasonable administrative charge to the passenger (which in most instances should not exceed $25 one-way) in order to recoup incremental costs. That said, it's the summertime, and the odds of getting most anywhere on standby are slim at best.



Live life to the fullest.
User currently offline1MillionFlyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 6510 times:

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 5):
DH is doing poorly as usual, though FWIW, I think their breakeven LF has probably fallen down to just below 100%. Or with higher fuel costs, maybe not...

Are you a financial analyst/psychic?

You have no clue from the numbers above exactly what is going on.

also that data is 3 months old, as we know history does not pay the bills, today does.


User currently offlineGoCOgo From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 701 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 6479 times:

Thanks for the replies! Now I can give a moderately more informed opinion to my coworker.  veryhappy 


"Why you fly is your business, how you fly is ours"
User currently offlineIflyI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 6276 times:

Quoting Avion346 (Reply 10):
Yields are going up especially on the west coast flights. I'm even seeing a lot less "E" fares and a lot more "B" and "A" fares in Detroit. Tomorrow in particular both the "to" and the "from" legs for LAX, SFO (all 3 flights), SEA, SJC, and SAN are completely 100% sold out.

As is TPA, RSW, MCO, and PBI. Plus getting out of SAV as a nonrev is getting harder. Things are looking good. I am not a number cruncher, but I am a ramper. I load bags and people. Lately, I have seen a lot more of both going on to our aircraft.

Jason in SAV


User currently offlineUA744Flagship From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 6249 times:

Quoting Avion346 (Reply 10):
Yields are going up especially on the west coast flights. I'm even seeing a lot less "E" fares and a lot more "B" and "A" fares in Detroit. Tomorrow in particular both the "to" and the "from" legs for LAX, SFO (all 3 flights), SEA, SJC, and SAN are completely 100% sold out.

Every US airline is 100% jam packed tomorrow. This 4th of July has been especially strong and I expect the ATA (not the airline) to report record load factors for this holiday period.


User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25424 posts, RR: 49
Reply 17, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 6214 times:

Tom Moore, FLYi president this week spoke at the Hunstville Rotary Club..

Here are some exerpts;


Low-fare airline may be forced to halt some flights

The president of the low-fare carrier Independence Air, hit with higher jet fuel costs like other airlines, believes that it has the "staying power" to continue service.

"We have struggled financially," said Tom Moore, president and chief operating officer of Independence Air, which started flying to five cities last June from its hub at Dulles International Airport outside Washington. It now serves airports in 45 cities, with more than 400 flights a day. But, "these are difficult times in the whole industry."

Fuel has grown from 12 percent of Independence Airline's costs to about 25 percent to 30 percent, said Moore, "at a time when we really can't raise fares." Asked about the impact of crude oil prices remaining at more than $50 a barrel, Moore said the higher fuel costs will force the airline to look at whether to continue service to "marginal communities."

Earlier this year, the company completed a financial restructuring that includes agreements with most of the company's aircraft creditors to defer lease payments and reduce the number of its 50-seat regional jets from 87 to 58 in the company's fleet. "That brought us some breathing room to build out our brand," said Moore. FLYi Inc., the parent company, has reported a net loss of $105 million for the first quarter of 2005. It reported a preliminary annual net loss of more than $190 million for 2004.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineSHUPirate1 From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 3670 posts, RR: 16
Reply 18, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 6203 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 17):
Fuel has grown from 12 percent of Independence Airline's costs to about 25 percent to 30 percent, said Moore, "at a time when we really can't raise fares."

Mr. Moore: you can't raise fares because your incompetent management barged into Northern Virginia International Airport with fares so low that homeless people no longer live on the streets, rather, they live in your CRJ's. Unfortunately, United has matched those fares, and you now know that if you raise your fares, United will pick your airline apart. Look, I originally thought this was going to work too, but it's fairly clear that it isn't, your yields are too low, your costs are too high, and your planes are not big enough. Dude, it's time to go back to the Fee-For-Departure business and make money that way. In short, pal, it's time to go back to the drawing board.



Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
User currently offlineNYCFlyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1387 posts, RR: 10
Reply 19, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 6163 times:

oh, hell, even if DH keeps tanking financially, good 'ole Congress will find a way to artificially keep them afloat and extend excessive bankruptcy protection, like US and UA.

Gotta love how Congress preaches capitalism but manages rarely to practice it.

For this reason alone, I'd have no problem buying a DH ticket now.


User currently offlineConcordeLoss From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 388 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 6124 times:

Do they handle any cargo operations? And if so, how wells is that doing?


"You're not as stupid as you look, or sound, or our best test indicates" Burns to Homer
User currently offlineAvek00 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4387 posts, RR: 19
Reply 21, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 6076 times:

Quoting 1MillionFlyer (Reply 13):
Are you a financial analyst/psychic?

You have no clue from the numbers above exactly what is going on.

I don't have to be either of the above to know that DH is still losing money hand over fist - fuel costs have increased signficantly from Q1 to Q2, offsetting much if not all of the revenue gains made from increased load factors. And in any event, a low-cost operation primarily operated with high-CASM aircraft is a virtually guaranteed failure to begin with.



Live life to the fullest.
User currently offlineIFly4UAL From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 63 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 6040 times:

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 5):
DH is doing poorly as usual, though FWIW, I think their breakeven LF has probably fallen down to just below 100%. Or with higher fuel costs, maybe not...



Quoting Avek00 (Reply 21):
don't have to be either of the above to know that DH is still losing money hand over fist - fuel costs have increased signficantly from Q1 to Q2, offsetting much if not all of the revenue gains made from increased load factors. And in any event, a low-cost operation primarily operated with high-CASM aircraft is a virtually guaranteed failure to begin with.



Quoting SHUPirate1 (Reply 18):
Mr. Moore: you can't raise fares because your incompetent management barged into Northern Virginia International Airport with fares so low that homeless people no longer live on the streets, rather, they live in your CRJ's. Unfortunately, United has matched those fares, and you now know that if you raise your fares, United will pick your airline apart. Look, I originally thought this was going to work too, but it's fairly clear that it isn't, your yields are too low, your costs are too high, and your planes are not big enough. Dude, it's time to go back to the Fee-For-Departure business and make money that way. In short, pal, it's time to go back to the drawing board.

....like a breath of fresh air  Yeah sure

Same tired ol' boring rant....same few yahoos that keep saying it...



BGR--Vacation Spot for All the Flying Crazies
User currently offlineGraham697 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 350 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 5988 times:

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 21):
I don't have to be either of the above to know that DH is still losing money hand over fist - fuel costs have increased signficantly from Q1 to Q2, offsetting much if not all of the revenue gains made from increased load factors. And in any event, a low-cost operation primarily operated with high-CASM aircraft is a virtually guaranteed failure to begin with.

Ok so what United station do you work for?



Looking forward to the new AA
User currently offlineBNAflyer78 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 258 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 5919 times:

Quoting LorM (Reply 7):
Last month I flew in and out of OKC Will Rogers World Airport (nice new terminal), there were at least half a dozen or more Independence Air CRJs still in company colors with their circle logos removed, sitting on the north ramp by 17R. Also there was 2 UAX Dornier 328s parked in the same fashion.

I don't have a source, but I remember reading somewhere that EV was acquiring several DH CRJs. Can anyone confirm and could this be the reason?

Ben in BNA



Long live the Widget!
25 1MillionFlyer : Yes Comair is getting 8 ex-DH planes.
26 AS739X : Skywest also has (at least 1) old I fly planes. ASSFO
27 Post contains links and images Lightsaber : Good to hear! I'll admit to having been "bearish" on FLYI financially. But I've always been impressed by the staff attitude! Due to *my* percieved im
28 Post contains images DAL767400ER : Actually, ASA is getting the ex-DH planes, but at the same time they will give the same number of their own CRJs to Comair. Why the ex-DH planes are
29 COERJ145 : Havn't gotten to fly on DH yet, almost did back in may when I headed down to DC for mothers day with my parents, but UA beat the fare from MHT-IAD by
30 Avek00 : I wouldn't be so stupid as to work in a highly vlunerable position at a dead-end bankrupt airline. That said, DH needs more than full flights - it ne
31 GARUDAROD : Cargo has not been implemented yet at FLYi. There is an on going program to try and start it up, but like all other things "Its under review" I am tol
32 AirWillie6475 : If the airline offers good service and a good product then it will be fine. From what I have heard IndyAir is a good airline with good service. I for
33 Avek00 : Not at all - the airline's CASM is sky-high.
34 1MillionFlyer : CASM Shmasim Dude just shut up ALL the legacies cannot achive postive RASM CASM I LOVE FLYI! I already used a free ticket on them...their FF program r
35 PrimetimeDC9 : i recently flew on them for the third time from d.c. to pittsburgh, every single one of those flights that i have been on is full. if they do have eno
36 Burnsie28 : When you have the highest CASM in the industry, it does matter, and believe it or not those legacies have a hell of a lot more going for them and mor
37 Post contains images ContnlEliteCMH : So let me see if I have this right... A banking/IT consultant, who makes his living by knowing numbers and making rational decisions based on those n
38 Post contains links 1MillionFlyer : Let me clue you in on the Big picture. NONE of the legacies are going to be allowed to fail why? Becuase the banks do not want those planes back and
39 1MillionFlyer : you should be careful, SkyBus is going to come in and run them all out of business LOL
40 ContnlEliteCMH : What has *any* of your diatribe have to do with my assertion? I think your reading comprehension may not be any better than your numerical inconsisten
41 ContnlEliteCMH : Perhaps time-based calculations escaped you when taught in school. You look at RASM - CASM to determine the present operating health of the company,
42 1MillionFlyer : "Buy a ticket now" this will continue into 2006. the banks are making the decisions and they will not take the planes back until they lose a lot more
43 Avek00 : Some of DH's planes have already been taken back in the company's first restructuring attempt earlier this year. The fact remains, however, that Inde
44 1MillionFlyer : They wanted those plans to be taken back, they are smart to reduce their RJs there Load factor is up almost 20% since they started thinning the RJ ra
45 Post contains images Allstarflyer : I knew somebody wouldn't listen. I disagree with that, thus I agree with this: Congress can't afford to keep DH afloat - no support for it, no pensio
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