Braybuddy From Ireland, joined Aug 2004, 6013 posts, RR: 31 Posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 2223 times:
Being off work sick and having nothing better to do, browsing through an accident database I totalled the accidents and fatalaties for two years, 1954 and 2004. The results were remarkably similar, despite a 50 year gap and a massive increase in air travel and a large increase in aircraft size:
NWCOflyer From United States of America, joined Jun 2003, 695 posts, RR: 13
Reply 1, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 2205 times:
Is really amazing when you consider how many thousands more planes are in the air, and how many millions more are traveling now. Certainly if there is an upside in the world of aviation right now, it is dramatically improved safety.
Condor From Germany, joined Mar 2001, 68 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 2190 times:
Yes, if you consider that traffic increased dramatically over the past 50 years you have to say that the current safety stats are impressive indeed. I wonder how it will look like in another 10 or 20 years. Traffic will increase even more but the airspace is not unlimited. The result might be that we´ll have even closer seperations than today. So lets hope the accidents won´t become more...
Commavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 12385 posts, RR: 62
Reply 3, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 2175 times:
Impressive is definitely the right word for it. To think that in the course of any given day, giant metal tubes take to the skies probably 30,000 times carrying people and cargo, and that on probably 360 out of 365 days of the year, not one of them ever even comes close to any other one. That's is amazing -- just goes to prove once again that flying is by far the safest way to travel.
Scbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 13524 posts, RR: 46
Reply 4, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 2149 times:
I think that record is likely to improve somewhat in the short term. It's interesting to note that (as far as I'm aware) no A330, A340 or 777 has been lost in service.
It will be interesting to see what happens to accident rates and losses as we see more third tier airlines now starting to use older Western type. I'm thinking of A310s, 737s and 757s now replacing older Russian types in many Russian airlines.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
Braybuddy From Ireland, joined Aug 2004, 6013 posts, RR: 31
Reply 5, posted (9 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 2127 times:
I can remember, probably twenty years ago, that insurers were predicting a large hull loss rate of one per month in the years ahead. That would have resulted in probably 2,500+ fatalaties every year. Thankfully, this never materialised.
Ikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21715 posts, RR: 59
Reply 8, posted (9 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 2023 times:
It all comes down to more reliability of machines which comes from computer diagnostics, higher precision and consistency of parts manufacturing, and improvements in maintenance techniques and requirements.
I would also so that the liberalization/deregulation of the industry around the world has helped, as airlines must compete more directly on cost and reliability, and having a safe, trouble free plane helps on both fronts, which encourages all manufacturers to prioritize safety and dispatch reliability.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.