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B6 Doing Badly In IAD & On Other Routes?  
User currently offlineJetbluefan1 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2985 posts, RR: 14
Posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 6347 times:

JetBlue just reported great June numbers (89% LF), but I'm concerned that this month will not be as good for them. I've been looking at fares in order to find how full flights are (the higher the price, the fuller the flight). For tomorrow, July 8th, it doesn't look as if their flights are all that full...and this surprises me as it's a Friday in July:

Some IAD-LGB flights are selling at base prices or the level right above. Also, BOS-LAS (in both directions) is selling at $119 -- that's a sale fare! BQN-JFK is at $119 too, and JFK-DEN is at base pricing. LGB-JFK hasn't been as full as it has in the past either.

It seems to me that the new higher pricing is putting a bit of a damper on demand. While I was expecting to see lighter traffic due to the $144 transcon instead of $119 like last year, I didn't think it would turn off too many people. After all, this is the busy summer travel season and I'd think that people would be willing to scoop out some additional $50 per round-trip ticket.

Don't forget about DL/Song's additional capacity between NYC-SoCal/SF Bay/SEA + SJU. Tomorrow Song isn't looking all that impressive between LAX and JFK, so I wouldn't expect 7x in the summer next year unless things pick up a little. It's still way to early to tell for SEA and SFO as both are only 1x (right now). SJU was packed on Song in both directions, but B6 was also.

Also, could it be that it's the weekend after the 4th of July, and therefore it's less busy? I don't know specific travel patterns of the summer all that well, but I'd think that every flight would be full from the end of June 'til the end of August.

In any case, JetBlue's flights down to Florida have been PACKED to the gills, which is surprising as it's the off-peak season for the market...

Any comments would be appreciated.

JetBluefan1


Most people on a.net hate JetBlue. Get used to it.
40 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineJBLUA320 From United States of America, joined May 2002, 3179 posts, RR: 19
Reply 1, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 6228 times:
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Its quite possible that they are just lowering the prices for the more immediate departures because they already have enough yield on the flight to make it profitable- thus, any more yield they can obtain, be it the highes walk up or the base fare, is still money in the bank. They tend to do this quite a bit on the less common routes. jetBlue's fare structure, while it seems simple, really isn't. They play hide-and-seek with all the different fare codes, a lot of the times regardless with how many seats on the plane are full...

JBLU


User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 6183 times:

Everyone I have spoken to about it said b6 was wonderful and the flights were 90% full last week out of BOS.


One Nation Under God
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21529 posts, RR: 59
Reply 3, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 6167 times:

but if they are selling seats so low, 90% isn't meaningful. What's meaningful is how the loads look next week before the firesales. Every airline does firesales last minute. I get last minute deal emails from CO and DL all the time. book by 3 days, return by 6 sort of thing. Doesn't mean that the yields on that route are worth anything.


Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineIcebird757 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 662 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 6044 times:

Quoting Jetbluefan1 (Thread starter):
Some IAD-LGB flights are selling at base prices or the level right above.

So? Our loads on this route are still going out at 145+ people just about everyday.

Quoting Jetbluefan1 (Thread starter):
LGB-JFK hasn't been as full as it has in the past either.

I beg to differ. Those flights are full most of the week. There are 1-2 days a week where the loads dip down to 140 or so. This is the best selling route for us from LGB.

We usually are about 90-98% full every week on every flight leaving LGB. Sometimes there are slow days but that is not too often at all.



LGB....where you can watch the grass grow because the traffic is so slow.
User currently offlineQuickmover From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2494 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 6001 times:

I am amazed at the frequency B6 has out of JFK. 12 or so to MCO, 7 to BUF, 20+ to FLL. Have they stimulated the market enough to generate new traffic or are most of these passengers former DL or US passengers? I really didn't think the majors have cut back capacity on any of these competing routes.

User currently offlineJetbluefan1 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2985 posts, RR: 14
Reply 6, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5950 times:

I beg to differ. Those flights are full most of the week. There are 1-2 days a week where the loads dip down to 140 or so. This is the best selling route for us from LGB.

We usually are about 90-98% full every week on every flight leaving LGB. Sometimes there are slow days but that is not too often at all.


Icebird757,

While JFK-LGB-JFK is definitely an excellent performer throughout the whole year, it seems that tomorrow and even today have seen less than expected passenger levels. For example, tomorrow's 1st redeye (the one that gets in around 4:30am) is selling at $149. That flight, like the rest of JetBlue's LGB-JFKs, is usually sold out or at $299. I'm not saying that JFK-LGB and back has been selling poorly -- just not as good as it has in the past. Don't forget that the 2nd ONT and the BUR flights could have something to do with this.

In any case, I hope that this is one of the slow days. I know that LGB is a great performer for B6 and I hope that they can take full advantage of it as far as yields and loads since it is so restricted.

JetBluefan1



Most people on a.net hate JetBlue. Get used to it.
User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 7, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5894 times:

Firstly, the fare level is not a definite indicator that the flights are not well booked - there could be other reasons (ie, competition) that JetBlue is holding fares at lower levels on the subject flights. We sometime draw incorrect conclusions by looking at clues such as fare levels or seating charts to predict how a route or an airline is doing, and sometimes we come up with the wrong answers.

That being said, JetBlue, which has been an amazing success thus far, is going to be facing more and more competition.......other airlines now take JetBlue seriously and are not going to let JetBlue simply take over key routes. Song, for example, is competing strongly with JetBlue out of JFK (and it does not matter if you like Song or JetBlue's product better, they can compete) and IAD is a bit of a free-for-all with I-Air putting a lot of pressure on pricing and United trying to hold its position at its IAD hub. While I think that JetBlue will continue to do well, but the easy days are over and in the future JetBlue will have to work harder to keep its planes filled - there will be more compeition everywhere that they fly and finding high-demand routes (like the NYC-Florida runs) where they can impact the market will be more difficult.


User currently offlineLGAtoIND From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 490 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5560 times:

Some of you keep arguing back with only the listed fares on the website to make your point. There is a lot more than the fare the website currently is charging to determine if the flight is full or making money. For one, why don't you start listening to the people that can actually get onto the jetBlue system, look up the flight loads, and see the system loads each day.

User currently offlineJetblue15 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 273 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 4438 times:

I load the flights for B6 at JFK and the gate sheet that I get every morning and night when I work the night shift has our flights booked at 145 or better. Mostly full with the exception of a few upstate flights at 95. Where pretty full through the summer. The loads drop off dramatically in Sept. which is a very light month with Oct. As far as fares go. I have no clue how that works I just load the cargo. This terminal is a freakin zoo everyday. So loads out of JFK are going out pretty damn heavy. Hope this helps, I know the thread is for IAD but haven't been down there in awhile.

Jetblue15



racecar spelled backwards spells racecar
User currently offlineIcebird757 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 662 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 4238 times:

Quoting Jetblue15 (Reply 9):
I load the flights for B6 at JFK and the gate sheet that I get every morning and night when I work the night shift has our flights booked at 145 or better. Mostly full with the exception of a few upstate flights at 95. Where pretty full through the summer. The loads drop off dramatically in Sept. which is a very light month with Oct. As far as fares go. I have no clue how that works I just load the cargo. This terminal is a freakin zoo everyday. So loads out of JFK are going out pretty damn heavy. Hope this helps, I know the thread is for IAD but haven't been down there in awhile.

Same here at LGB.



LGB....where you can watch the grass grow because the traffic is so slow.
User currently offlinePadcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 4191 times:

When the 4Q DOT fares report comes out soon. I will post an analysis of Jetblue/Song head to head routes both for load factor, yields, and a approximate RASM.

Historically, if there is one lackluster Jetblue route it is JFK-SLC.


User currently offlineFA4B6 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 4039 times:

Ummm ...

Isn't JetBlue a, *ahem*, LOW FARE airline??

 box 

 duck 


User currently offlineJkudall From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 615 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 4031 times:

Quoting Padcrasher (Reply 11):
Historically, if there is one lackluster Jetblue route it is JFK-SLC

Are you talking about loads? Because if you are you must be kidding.

In May 2005, JetBlue had over a 90% load factor on its flights from SLC. That is higher than JetBlue's May 2005 system-wide loadfactor of 86.6% for all flights nationwide.

As far as I know, B6 is still doing just fine even with DL's new 763 SLC-JFK flight that leaves at about the same time every night and CO's SLC-EWR red-eye flight.


User currently offlinePadcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 3943 times:

Quoting Jkudall (Reply 13):
Are you talking about loads? Because if you are you must be kidding

Yes I'm talking about loads and yields in general over a longer period than 1 Month.

Maybe you're kidding? You think Jetblue has 90% load factors Month in an Month out on this route? When I pull up the 3rd Q reports I see Jetblue flying 202 passengers back and forth each day. Roughly, speaking that's a 65% load factor.


User currently offlineJkudall From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 615 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3854 times:

Here is what I am going off of:

B6 reported to SLC airport they boarded 8,770 revenue pax in the month of May. There are two daily departures, one to LGB one to JFK. There are 31 days in May which equates to 282.9 pax boardings per day or an avg. of 141.45 pax per flight. 141.45 seats filled on a 156 seat aircraft indicates 90.6% of seats filled.

YTD, the factor (according to the numbers given by B6 to the airport) shows a YTD load factor of 92.5%

I was going off of those numbers. I'm not trying feud or anything.

[Edited 2005-07-08 19:39:04]

User currently offlineFutureB6capt From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 108 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3766 times:

Well, I can't tell you how the JFK-LGB is doing, but the OAK-LGB was full and there were standby customers. The JFK-OAK flight was also about 90%.

Cheers
FutureB6Capt


User currently offlinePadcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3710 times:

I don't know that seems high. I don't know if SLC airport is getting operational load factor numbers that would include non-revs, employees on postive space tickets, and of course it's not broken down by LGB/JFK markets.

User currently offlineJetBlueAtJFK From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1687 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3509 times:

Quoting Padcrasher (Reply 17):
I don't know that seems high. I don't know if SLC airport is getting operational load factor numbers that would include non-revs, employees on postive space tickets, and of course it's not broken down by LGB/JFK markets.

Well he gave you the numbers and it shows that route is doing great for them, so there you go.
---

Quoting Quickmover (Reply 5):
I am amazed at the frequency B6 has out of JFK. 12 or so to MCO, 7 to BUF, 20+ to FLL. Have they stimulated the market enough to generate new traffic or are most of these passengers former DL or US passengers? I really didn't think the majors have cut back capacity on any of these competing routes.

Yes it really is amazing that they can have so many flights for such a young carrier!

Quoting Jetbluefan1 (Reply 6):
I'm not saying that JFK-LGB and back has been selling poorly -- just not as good as it has in the past. Don't forget that the 2nd ONT and the BUR flights could have something to do with this.

Sure extra frequencies and ONT and adding BUR has taken some PAX from LGB but I still think LGB is doing great it shows they can handle all those lA flights well.

Quoting LGAtoIND (Reply 8):
There is a lot more than the fare the website currently is charging to determine if the flight is full or making money. For one, why don't you start listening to the people that can actually get onto the jetBlue system, look up the flight loads, and see the system loads each day.

Yes, as some one said before that the fare structure is very complicated and having the flights as costing alot doesn't mean it is near full, some times it could only be 3/4 full and they want to get more money out of it because of the season and they know people will pay for it.

Quoting Jetblue15 (Reply 9):
I load the flights for B6 at JFK and the gate sheet that I get every morning and night when I work the night shift has our flights booked at 145 or better. Mostly full with the exception of a few upstate flights at 95. Where pretty full through the summer. The loads drop off dramatically in Sept. which is a very light month with Oct. As far as fares go. I have no clue how that works I just load the cargo. This terminal is a freakin zoo everyday. So loads out of JFK are going out pretty damn heavy. Hope this helps, I know the thread is for IAD but haven't been down there in awhile.

Yes! It gets very crowded, especially on bad weather days!! I heard a new cargo belt is going up at Gate 17, so hopefully that will ease the congestion down in the Ramp area.

 airplane jetBlueAtJFK airplane 



When You Know jetBlue, You Know Better
User currently offlinePadcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3474 times:

Quoting JetBlueAtJFK (Reply 18):
Well he gave you the numbers and it shows that route is doing great for them, so there you go.
---

He did give "numbers". Which had to do with SLC boardings only. Which had nothing to do with yields, did not specify markets, did not specify if they were revenue passengers boardings only.

So there you go.


User currently offlinePadcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3451 times:

Oh and BTW. Aviation Daily published a load factor analysis of Jetlblue routes and SLC-JFK by far and away had the lowest load factors. Now this was over a year ago, but not much has changed to raise this markets load factor relative to any other Jetblue market.

User currently offlineJetBlueAtJFK From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1687 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3442 times:

They specified SLC flights showing all the bordings for flights and most of the time you never would count non-rev passengers because they could easily switch flights so you don't know what flight to count them for so you normally don't count them.

Quoting Padcrasher (Reply 11):
When the 4Q DOT fares report comes out soon. I will post an analysis of Jetblue/Song head to head routes both for load factor, yields, and a approximate RASM.

Wait, you have access to Song's numbers and stuff??????

 airplane jetBlueAtJFK airplane 



When You Know jetBlue, You Know Better
User currently offlinePadcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3402 times:

Quoting JetBlueAtJFK (Reply 21):
Wait, you have access to Song's numbers and stuff??????

Yes I do. Are you saying I don't?


Look I'm all for you shaking your pom poms for Jetblue. It's cute. I gave the you the exact average number of passengers Jetblue accomodates fromJFK to SLC. 202 per day both ways for the 3rd Quarter. I'm sure they get a little connecting service as well. Shaking your pom poms is not going to change this.


User currently offlineJetBlueAtJFK From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1687 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3365 times:

Quoting Padcrasher (Reply 22):
Yes I do. Are you saying I don't?

No I just thought they didn't release those numbers. Sorry for asking.

Quoting Padcrasher (Reply 22):
Look I'm all for you shaking your pom poms for Jetblue. It's cute. I gave the you the exact average number of passengers Jetblue accomodates fromJFK to SLC. 202 per day both ways for the 3rd Quarter. I'm sure they get a little connecting service as well. Shaking your pom poms is not going to change this.

I am not shaking pom poms I am saying what the numbers have stated, that load factor to and from SLC from JFK AND LGB is about 90%. That isn't cheering them on, it is stating the numbers. That is it, no cheerleaders involved.

 airplane jetBlueAtJFK airplane 



When You Know jetBlue, You Know Better
User currently offlinePadcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (9 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3324 times:

Quoting JetBlueAtJFK (Reply 23):
that load factor to and from SLC from JFK AND LGB is about 90%

Where are you getting this 90% figure? Source it.

If you are going by SLC boardings that is a wild guess.. I'll say it again for the third time, SLC does not break down the boarding by market. You do not know if they include non revs/positive space.

I'd love to know with the load factor is. In fact, when I go to work tommorow I will come back and tell you "exactly" what their load factor was in Jan/Feb and March.


25 Post contains images JetBlueAtJFK : Just go up a couple posts and read a jetBlue insiders numbers. That is my source. It isn't that hard to find it, just move your mouse up a little. Tha
26 Post contains images Jkudall : From my earlier post: Again, these were numbers given to the airport by B6. And you are correct, it doesn't break down the LGB/JFK markets but it giv
27 Jetblue15 : Bad weather really isn't a problem for us. As a matter a fact today was a pretty calm day for us load wise. Bagroom was pretty smooth for a change. A
28 Padcrasher : Neelemans' plan hit a road block. He thought he would just pile ASMs into JFK and FLL and drive other carriers off the routes. (Starting LGA-FLL when
29 Post contains images Lightsaber : I would be really interested to see this!
30 Padcrasher : I will be too. I already have a general idea of what will show up. Jetblue will lead in load factor in almost every market, more so in JFK than BOS.
31 Post contains images Chugach : Ok, let me stir the pot here a little bit: Would a LGB-ANC or JFK-SEA-ANC flight work on B6? Perhaps starting as a seasonal and progressing to year-ro
32 Jetbluefan1 : and is blaming the weather of 6 straight months of low on-time scores due in large part to his own build up in these same airports. As someone who liv
33 Midway2airtran : These days I wouldn't judge fares to be indicators of booked flights considering that LF's are nearly 80%+ for most airlines(except WN) and there are
34 JetBluefan1 : B6's flights were 88% on-time out of JFK. No cancellations. DL and AA were roughly 86% on-time. AA cancelled .53% and DL cancelled .31%. May figures.
35 Post contains images JetBlueAtJFK : I agree 100%! I live very close to JFK (3 towns away-theres JFK-then some town in queens, valley stream and then lynbrook!) And all the weather hits
36 Padcrasher : Song's on time this Month so far is 68% for arrivals within 15%. Song's on-time goes up and down with Jetblue. Not any better not any worse. It's the
37 Luv2fly : Yeah lets stop making money on the routes that work for B6 and start routes that may or may not work, sounds like a legacy move and not a smart one a
38 FightingDingo : Anyone know how the loads are for B6 out of PDX? Zach
39 Padcrasher : luv2fly You accused me the a few weeks ago of being "silent and gone" when someone caught me saying something incorrect. I challenged you on it, asked
40 Padcrasher : jkudall You are correct about JB's load factor. I pulled a DOT report and in the 1Q 05 JB's load factor was 84% on the JFK-SLC route. But if we use th
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