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US-India Overcapacity  
User currently offlineAndahuailas From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 138 posts, RR: 0
Posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4500 times:

With all the new direct services between India and the US, which, by the end of the year will have grown by more than 300% compared to last December, it seems that low yields and/or a fare war will develop. Not to mention that there is increased capacity between India and Europe as well ( specially the UK), which also means more seats available for connecting one stop traffic between India and the US.

57 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineShawnnyc From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 241 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4460 times:

Yes airlines will go through some pain in the short run, but then things will stabilize. India was a grossly underserved market with many people taking ridiculous routings to go between India and the US. What you are seeing now are airlines like AA, BA, Jet etc which should be natural players in the market because of real traffic with their respective countries battle it out to regain lost market share to airlines that came in because of a lack of capacity. The US, UK and Indian carriers will do fine as their countries have the local India traffic. Gulf airlines and some of the more random Euro airlines will see them pushed down the value chain to much lower priced fares and much fewer premium pax (most won't get pushed out of the market as India is still growing very fast).

Thankfully, I think the days of me having no other real option but flying SQ EWR-SIN-BOM at Xmas time are over.


User currently offlineTedTAce From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4410 times:

Personally I'd rather 'hop'. Being strapped to an aluminum can for as much time as it takes to get to Toyko or Hong Kong is bad enough. Nice to stop at those places, take a breather (and a few pictures), then keep on going.

User currently offlineMrniji From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4374 times:

Quoting TedTAce (Reply 2):
Personally I'd rather 'hop'. Being strapped to an aluminum can for as much time as it takes to get to Toyko or Hong Kong is bad enough. Nice to stop at those places, take a breather (and a few pictures), then keep on going.

For the 1st time probably I agree with you.. I might be an anutter, but eevrything less than 10 hrs in a flying object is enuff for me.. a one or two day stopover can be relaxing, especially if one knows people there!

To the topic: it will be interesting to see how the market reacts. I can imagine that for biz travellers nonstops might be attractive (is saving 3 hrs really that crucial, question?), but for others the price will be more important - AIs one-stops and milkroutes provide an alternative for them

. Then, people who live in other regions in India that are not served nonstop as MAA, CCU etc (texdravid, how would you decide?) will not really have that great alternative. As said in re 1, the India-US Market was long underserved.

Looks like gulf airlines will be the big loosers..


User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6489 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4362 times:

I have mixed feelings about it. On one hand, I like the idea of nonstops. On the other hand, I love flying and don't really mind connections. It's the aviation buff in me versus the fact that I'm impatient.


When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlineBigGSFO From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2926 posts, RR: 6
Reply 5, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 4330 times:

Quoting TedTAce (Reply 2):
Personally I'd rather 'hop'. Being strapped to an aluminum can for as much time as it takes to get to Toyko or Hong Kong is bad enough. Nice to stop at those places, take a breather (and a few pictures), then keep on going.

Goodness I agree. 16 hours in a plane. I hope part of the in-flight service will be complementary hits of Ambien.

I know the business travelers will like it, but can you imagine those with little kids on a 16 hour flight?


User currently offlineBurnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7546 posts, RR: 8
Reply 6, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 4267 times:

I dont think its over capacity when year round NW sells out just about every flight to India.


"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009
User currently offlineShawnnyc From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 241 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 4227 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 5):
I know the business travelers will like it, but can you imagine those with little kids on a 16 hour flight?

Actually when I was little, my mom hated the connection. Two small kids, 6 carry-ons, gates that were far away. First we got settled on one flight, then packed up, then got resettled on another flight, then got ready again for arrival. I give her credit. Not to mention missed connections and getting bumped in europe, all which have happened to us over the years. A nonstop would have been easier.


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 8, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 4215 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 5):
Goodness I agree. 16 hours in a plane. I hope part of the in-flight service will be complementary hits of Ambien.

people complain, but adapt...there are more and more 14+ nonstop flights now...

just look at EK's routes...they have a couple already, and if they increase to service to the United States, they will have more..

with the -200LR's, 787's and A350's coming on board, it seems that the natural trajectory is towards more long distance 10+ hour flights...

15 years ago, who would have thought?



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineLucianflyboy From St. Lucia, joined Jun 2005, 213 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 4199 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 5):
I know the business travelers will like it, but can you imagine those with little kids on a 16 hour flight?

Agreed. Alot of the business travelers want to get to where they are going with 1 or no connections. Most of them have top tier status which allows them to get the primo seats away from the screaming babies.

Families do prefer those trips also like Shannyc said. Less stress for the poor mother with kids, toys, bags and other such delights.


User currently offlineToxicmegacolon From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 28 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 4142 times:

It seems that distance-wise, MSP is the closest US airport to India. I'm suprised that NW isn't considering changing their MSP-BOM via AMS to a direct routing? Any news at all concerning NW and India service?

User currently offlineBigGSFO From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2926 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 4125 times:

Quoting Toxicmegacolon (Reply 10):
It seems that distance-wise, MSP is the closest US airport to India

Actually ANC is closer.  Smile


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17537 posts, RR: 46
Reply 12, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 4117 times:

I wonder how this will affect EK since IIRC about a third of their traffic is connecting traffic from India. I've always said that an Indian air carrier could blow Emirates out of the water if regulations and infrastructure permitted.


E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineToxicMegacolon From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 28 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 4116 times:

OK, OK, and GFK would be closer too... I guess I mean major passenger airport/passenger hub...

User currently offlineAndahuailas From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 138 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 4093 times:

The subject of the thread is US India overcapacity, not the lenght of flights.

User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4019 posts, RR: 13
Reply 15, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 4034 times:

When I went to India, it was Cathay JFK-YVR-HKG-BKK-BOM, then DEL. Non, grazie! Bring the overcapacity to let the airlines that can serve the market efficiently thrive. Taking a plane from the US and landing it in India costs more than 100 thousand dollars per departure in direct costs. No airline in their right mind will run an operation like this at a loss. If there is overcapacity the supply will be reduced.


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User currently offlineKaran69 From India, joined Oct 2004, 2891 posts, RR: 18
Reply 16, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3967 times:

At the moment these are the flights that people travelling to and fro on the IND-US sector travel in,

AI--IND*-LHR/FRA-US*
LH--IND-FRA-US
AC--DEL--YYZ, soon to hcange to via ZRH
CO--DEL-EWR soon,
DL--BOM/MAA--CDG--US
NW--BOM/BLR--AMS--US
KLM--DEL-AMS-US
KE--BOM-ICN-US
SQ--IND-S.E.ASIA--US
MH--IND-S.E.ASIA--LAX
AF--IND-CDG-US
BA--IND-LHR-US
VS--BOM/DEL--LHR--US
AA--DEL-ORD,soon
EK--IND-DXB-JFK
EK/CO-IND-DXB-LGW-IAH/---very popular among students
TG--IND-S.E.ASIA-LAX/JFK
JL--DEL-NRT-US,

*--denotes that the carrier operates to more than 2 cities

Well, if the market can withstand so many flights what difference would an additional 500 seats per day on AA and CO non-stops make to it,

In the future 9W expansions could see more non-stops perhaps they will be smart enough to launch them from cities like BOM,MAA,HYD,BLR and not any from DEL which already will be having 2 non-stops in the near future.


User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3489 posts, RR: 10
Reply 17, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3896 times:

DL also operates FRA-BOM during the winter season.

Jeremy


User currently offlineKaran69 From India, joined Oct 2004, 2891 posts, RR: 18
Reply 18, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3885 times:

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 17):
DL also operates FRA-BOM during the winter season.

But they are unlikely to do it now,as they have Open Skies with India and can add routes to any destinitions they desire in India, this is why they have gone for MAA flights via CDG.


User currently offlineGamps From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 469 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3889 times:

Well the Indian demographics in US has changed significantly in last 10 years. Indian population in US soared in 90s and these folks now have family and have their parents visiting them etc. Not to mention Indians being the richest ethnic group in US. In other words there is a huge group of immigrants who arrived in last 10-15 years which translates to closer ties to home country. With lot of disposable income we can even see people saying "Hey there is a $1500 deal to India, let us fly day after tomorrow".

As far as duration of flights, while I certainly enjoy different planes and stopovers but you can take only so many SFO-NRT-SIN-MAA-BLR (with free strip search of brown folks thrown in by Japanese security just because you are flying UA - an American airline) or SFO-ICN-SIN-BLR or SFO-LAX-NRT-SIN-BLR flights with 4-6 hours layovers. After a while you just want to reach the destination. And I am sure the Eastcoast Indians cheer about not spending $$ and on stopping over at some stinky European stopover with ridiculous transit visa policies.

If nothing I will be happy when the European hubs realize the loss of revenue due to non-stop America - India flights. All these years Indians had to go through humiliating transit visa requirements and being treated as potential asylum seekers even when staying airside - and worse, being confined to small transit area with one restroom.


User currently offlineVivek0072 From India, joined Jun 2005, 284 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 3780 times:

Quoting Gamps (Reply 19):
SFO-NRT-SIN-MAA-BLR (with free strip search of brown folks thrown in by Japanese security just because you are flying UA - an American airline)

Why is this done ? I did see that they randomly pick and do it at NRT while flying on SQ, and it was only on Indians. Why ?



That life's most failures were people who did not realise how close they were to success when they gave up. - Edison.
User currently offlineShawnnyc From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 241 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 3752 times:

Quoting Gamps (Reply 19):
If nothing I will be happy when the European hubs realize the loss of revenue due to non-stop America - India flights. All these years Indians had to go through humiliating transit visa requirements and being treated as potential asylum seekers even when staying airside - and worse, being confined to small transit area with one restroom.

Oh you forgot those military people that check your passport just to get off the plane (barely glance at those of the fairer persuation) but will thouroughly inspect the US passport of an Indian-American. I'm over all of that (especially since its my vacation!!!). Some people feel that all Indians love waking up at 3am US time to shlep through a big Euro airport with our bags and family in tow (yes we are Indian we have many carry-ons) just to connect. While I love seeing all the planes, I hate the lack of sleep headache I get. I took the EWR-SIN nonstop and I have to say I'll take a nonstop to India any day (plus it would be shorter than the EWR-SIN nonstop).


User currently offlineB747-437B From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 3650 times:

Quoting Andahuailas (Thread starter):
With all the new direct services between India and the US, which, by the end of the year will have grown by more than 300% compared to last December

In December 2004, airlines offered 17183 weekly directional seats on direct services between the US and India.

In December 2005, airlines will offer 21738 weekly directional seats on direct services between the US and India.

That is an increase of only 26% capacity and not "more than 300%" as you stated.


User currently offlineTexdravid From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1356 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3540 times:

Quoting Karan69 (Reply 16):
In the future 9W expansions could see more non-stops perhaps they will be smart enough to launch them from cities like BOM,MAA,HYD,BLR and not any from DEL which already will be having 2 non-stops in the near future

Right on, but keep your comments to yourself, lest Mrniji hears you!!!
Just kidding, Subin.



Tort reform now. Throw lawyers in jail later.
User currently offlineMrniji From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (9 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3514 times:

Quoting Texdravid (Reply 23):
Right on, but keep your comments to yourself, lest Mrniji hears you!!!

I could not care less as I won't sit in ANY rustbucket for more than 8-10 hrs  bigthumbsup  (rather stop in Europe and see family/friendz).. rather should I lobby for noinstops DFW-MAA to gain Texdravid as new FF of AI Big grin


25 Post contains images Avek00 : The real loser going forward is Emirates - the airline was banking on flooding a restricted USA-India market with A380s, but said market is no longer
26 HAWK21M : How Many Flts by AI to the US in a Week from India. The AI B747s still get Airborne 200-300 meters earlier than other B747s out of Mumbai. regds MEL
27 B747-437B : 28 weekly. Daily each to JFK, Chicago, Newark and Los Angeles. Additionally, 3 weekly to Toronto.
28 Andahuailas : B747-437b , if you read my post the 300% increase is calculated thru the end of this year when American, United, Northwest, Jet and Air India will ha
29 Post contains images Comorin : B747, thanks for the counterintuitive stats. Is Andahuilas perhaps referring to a 300% increase in flights from the US to India? I would imagine given
30 Zvezda : Since a very, very small portion of US-India traffic currently flies nonstop, a 300% increase in nonstop service would not have a large effect on the
31 B747-437B : Actually, if you read MY post the 26% is indeed calculated through the end of this year. In December 2004, the capacity in the market was provided by
32 Jaysit : But you also have BA adding 7 777s to BOM, Austrian adding 5 763s to BOM, BA adding another bunch of flights to BLR and MAA. I'm assuming that much o
33 B747-437B : None of those are "direct services between India and the US". Andahuailas stated that "direct services between India and the US... will have grown by
34 Shawnnyc : I think you have to include all of the Euro flights to India that can connect with US flights as part of the overall US-India capacity. Once all the n
35 Skyguy : I guess the next question that needs to be asked in light of the increased number of flights to Europe from existing carriers from India and the new e
36 Andahuailas : 747-347B, you are not right in your calculations, Both DL and NW only had 7 weekly flights to india in 2004, not 14. The increase happends this year.
37 B747-437B : The largest share of the market belongs to Air India who has somewhere between 20-25% of all traffic. Delta/Air France and Northwest/KLM have around
38 Shawnnyc : I meant all Indian carriers and all US carriers in comparison to all Euro carriers. I thought I read that Indian carriers had a very low overall mark
39 B747-437B : No Andahuailas, YOU are not right in YOUR calculations. I suggest you double check your raw data because your constant false insinuations on this thr
40 Mrniji : Oh yeah!! I have to use DEL airport regularly.. and I have no idea where all these new pax want to stay/wait! Normally, I like staying at airports, b
41 Nycank : DL did indeed have two flights daily in 12/04 through 02/05 - The extra flight was JFK-FRA-BOM (seasonal)
42 Comorin : My views as a passenger: if BA increases its flights LHR - India 300%, then they have added 300% capacity to US - India with the difference between a
43 Avek00 : The big loser on USA-India will likely be Emirates. The Euro carriers will be reduced to also-rans as well, but at least they can benefit from alread
44 Comorin : Let's say BA has 10,000 seats/week LHR-India, and 2,500 seats are occupied by passengers originating in the US. If they increase their capacity to 30
45 Avek00 : You're assuming that the growth in India-UK traffic directly corresponds to or correlates with growth in the India-USA market.[Edited 2005-07-14 03:4
46 Ckfred : If you think about the number of U.S. companies that now have offices in India, it's no surprise that airlines are adding non-stop service from the U.
47 Cospn : If you think about the number of U.S. companies that now have offices in India, it's no surprise that airlines are adding non-stop service from the U.
48 Jaysit : That's a good question. In the past if you called up the AI office and told them you wanted to fly from Washington, DC (or Boston or anywhere else) t
49 Post contains images Mrniji : LOL! too funny, I can really imagine this - I don't know how this call center boom in India is successful, considering AIs call center agents in my e
50 Airbazar : The same can be said about other Europe-India additions. If the airline does not add capacity in the Europe-N.America market, just adding capacity in
51 Shawnnyc : I totally disagree. There are many many Indian-Americans that fly AI by choice. I would actually say Indians from India and recent Indian immigrants
52 CXH : As far as I know, not much is happening in Goose Bay and Gander beyond local traffic (Dash8s and smaller; some jet traffic in Gander). That said, I b
53 Avek00 : That might be true for OS but not so for LH/AF/BA/VS/KL/AZ - those airlines CAN sustain most of their India flying based on O&D market needs versus c
54 Airbazar : Maybe, maybe not, but that's not what I was getting to. In very simple terms this is what i was saying: If you have 1000 seats for VIE-india, but onl
55 Shawnnyc : And someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but only the British carriers have the O&D to India to sustain all of the daily flights to India that the
56 Atmx2000 : Not with the capacities they are providing. European carriers (non-BA) have a larger number of combined US&Europe - India O&D passengers than actual
57 Comorin : Airbazar, thanks for clarifying this important point on allocation of seats. Based on this, it doesn't matter if BA adds 200% more flights to India,
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