BestWestern From Ireland, joined Sep 2000, 6431 posts, RR: 58 Posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 2734 times:
Ryanair have solved their dispute with Bergamo airport and will announce more routes on July 26th..
This will be FR's time to launch domestic routes from Bergamo to southern Italy and her islands, and the long awaited AZ killer to Ciampino. CIA is the only FR hub not linked to Bergamo.
BestWestern From Ireland, joined Sep 2000, 6431 posts, RR: 58 Reply 2, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2691 times:
FCO LIN is a gold mine for AZ, and has amongst the highest yields of any trunk route in Europe. It badly needs the Ryanair treatment. Ryanair are building up a loyal Italian following, and this route will be central to that.
Short Sector length and a hub at both ends will really boost their chances of success here.
Pe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 18831 posts, RR: 54 Reply 3, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2689 times:
International ones which are probable, amongst others, include: NRN, SDR, Santiago and DUB. I am not yet too sure about domestic destinations, although AHO at least seems likely.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
Pe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 18831 posts, RR: 54 Reply 5, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2665 times:
Quoting OO-VEG (Reply 4):
On the other hand NRN isn't performing that good.
LOL. I wouldn't believe anyone but for the airline's executives: we all know the amount of heresy and nonsense published on this website by lay people. None of us, unless we have access to all the statistics and can properly analyse everything and forecast the future, have the ability to state what is and what is not performing well, at least not with any accuracy. So, I suggest just waiting and hoping.
I wonder if any BGY-Eastern European routes will be announced.
[Edited 2005-07-23 12:07:59]
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
Airblue From San Marino, joined May 2001, 1825 posts, RR: 14 Reply 6, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2634 times:
Quoting BestWestern (Thread starter): Ryanair have solved their dispute with Bergamo airport and will announce more routes on July 26th
Really?? I missed something in the last three days I was off. The press conference in BGY will be to present the new winter scheduled ex Italy plus one route to replace the night rotation BGY-HHN-BGY now operated by a BGY based plane and from 31 Oct. by an HHN based plane.
Joost From Netherlands, joined Apr 2005, 3128 posts, RR: 4 Reply 8, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2618 times:
I'm not sure if OO-VEG mentioned that the airport of NRN as a business doesn't perform good, or the flights from NRN.
As an airport operator, NRN is defenitely not performing good. Especially after V-Bird ceased operations, the airport is very empty. That empty, that they couldn't pay their loans back in time - now the German and Dutch governments agrees that they could pay it back later, around 2010. So they have some space to breath, but business does not work out for them as planned. It's also very clear when you look at the airport. 16 check-in desks, 14 of them collecting dust. One small cafe that works, but the restaurant was closed.
For FR, when I flew them last week, the loads were very high, over 90%. Doesn't say anything about yields yet, of course. However, looking at the amount of money they dare to charge mid-august for CIA-NRN, (all way over 100 euros) it seems that there is a demand.
The airport just needs some time to start-up. From many places in Holland, NRN is closer than AMS, but here people just don't know that there actually is an airport there. It will come.
Airblue From San Marino, joined May 2001, 1825 posts, RR: 14 Reply 11, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 2551 times:
Quoting BestWestern (Reply 10): Remember what O'leary said earlier in the year if a deal could be struck...
Strange because last Wednesday when he landed in BGY to go to downtown Milan for the press conference to announce the new base in Pisa he asked for a meeting with Sacbo president who refused to meet him (the reason given to FR of course was that the president of Sacbo has an important meeting in another city that day, but he has been seen in BGY in the early noon after MOL left to PSA).
That's fact.
Then nothing prevent FR to start a new route even if there isn't a good feeling between them and the airport. If you pay all the handling fees nobody can prevent you to fly there....
Joost From Netherlands, joined Apr 2005, 3128 posts, RR: 4 Reply 12, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2507 times:
Quoting Airblue (Reply 11): Then nothing prevent FR to start a new route even if there isn't a good feeling between them and the airport. If you pay all the handling fees nobody can prevent you to fly there....
Well that is the thing. If Ryanair had to pay full handling fees, they would not fly there. Ryanair is negotiating every airport fee to the bone - because, according to them, they do the airport operator a favor to fly there and bring passengers. I read somewhere that back when FR flew into GRQ, the paid 1 euro handling fee per passenger, where Transavia had to pay 8. That is quite a difference.
Pe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 18831 posts, RR: 54 Reply 13, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2491 times:
Quoting Joost (Reply 12): I read somewhere that back when FR flew into GRQ, the paid 1 euro handling fee per passenger, where Transavia had to pay 8. That is quite a difference.
That is brilliant negociation. Because of FR's size and the brilliant ability of its 'negociators,' the airline is able to secure superb deals. Such deals are open to all airlines if they're able to present their argument (and so on) in the same, or better, way. It is, in most cases, simply supply and demand: the airports need business to survive, the airlines need places to fly to. If no other airline wanted to fly to X, then it might well be in the airport's interest, especially, perhaps, in the longer-term, to do a deal. Such a deal might also help attract additional airlines. And so the airport would begin to have its airport on the 'map' and would become increasingly well-known, which in return might attract other airlines and businesses (say, to start a cafe or shop in the terminal, for which they pay rent)... What can surely be certain is that if the airport kept its fees and charges at its 'normal' rate, then it would probably not attract any airlines and consequently not the additional businesses.
[Edited 2005-07-23 14:42:01]
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
Rafabozzolla From Brazil, joined Apr 2000, 1165 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2480 times:
Quoting BestWestern (Reply 2): Short Sector length and a hub at both ends will really boost their chances of success here
Ryanair does not operate a hub system. It has a base at both ends. If you want to go from from BGY to CIA and then onwards (or vice-versa) will have to buy two tickets and connections are not guaranteed.
Pe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 18831 posts, RR: 54 Reply 15, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2483 times:
Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 14): Ryanair does not operate a hub system. It has a base at both ends. If you want to go from from BGY to CIA and then onwards (or vice-versa) will have to buy two tickets and connections are not guaranteed.
BW almost certainly did not mean that. Instead, he almost certainly meant simply a 'base' (a base is, effectively, 'hub-and-spoke' (the 'hub' being the base, the 'spokes' being the routes), just without the through connection possibilities). He meant, I am sure, simply O&D traffic for BGY-CIA and CIA-BGY, of which there is plenty. (BW: please correct me if I am wrong.)
[Edited 2005-07-23 14:56:33]
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
I was thinking the scale benefits of running a 'focus city operation', rather than an interline hub.
FR have a growing presence in both Roma and Milano, and a presence in the markets from a brand perception viewpoint. Everyone knows the ryanair brand in the cities, so now they only have to promote the route. €0.99 fares really help this.
Will BGY CIA happen next week... if it does, it will take an entire aircraft to do so (9-10 sectors daily). As for the potential... Whats the FR frequency on BGY LON compared to all the competition combined??? Use the same % on ROM MIL for what Ryanair could potentially do. FR could eventually be flying 10 daily services on this route in each direction - just like on PIK STN or STN DUB.
Pe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 18831 posts, RR: 54 Reply 17, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 2399 times:
I agree.
So, Mr. B.W. - do you think that a new carrier wishing to focus solely (for the foreseeable future, at least) on domestic Italian routes (building up bases at BGY and CIA at least), perhaps using, say, the DH4 in view of the flight durations*, would do just as well on the BGY-CIA-BGY route? Two of the major differences, I suppose, would be the lack of brand awareness in both cities and the probable lack of back-up cash. Another problem would be that unless one (or more) aircraft were based at both BGY and CIA, the first departure from whichever airport does not have the based aircraft would not be that early (probably 0740/0750).
* The DH4 is quicker, more comfortable and, I believe, more highly regarded than other turboprops, such as the AT7. It is, I think, more efficient than jets on routes up to 400 NMs, so would be ideal for within Italy.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
Pe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 18831 posts, RR: 54 Reply 20, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2367 times:
Quoting Airblue (Reply 18): Ciampino-Brescia 14.617pax (june 2005)
Average load factor per flight: 64.4%
Ciampino-Treviso 15.502pax (june 2005)
Average load factor per flight: 68%
While they per se do not sound good, I would be willing to bet £1, or 2 EUR, that FR's break-even point is less than 64%, but I might be wrong (I'd bet £10, or 20 EUR, that it's less than 68%). Still, it's relatively early days.
Do you have its LF for AHO?
[Edited 2005-07-23 17:22:21]
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
BestWestern From Ireland, joined Sep 2000, 6431 posts, RR: 58 Reply 21, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2351 times:
Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 17): Two of the major differences, I suppose, would be the lack of brand awareness in both cities and the probable lack of back-up cash
And the fact that the average passenger sees a turboprop as being at least twenty years old.
Props from Bergamo were tried, and failed. Gandalf.
Quoting Airblue (Reply 18):
Ciampino-Brescia 14.617pax (june 2005)
Average load factor per flight: 64.4%
Ciampino-Treviso 15.502pax (june 2005)
Average load factor per flight: 68%
Very respectable figures for the first season of operation. Whilst not profitable (new route have lower yields due to promotional fares), these markets are well on their way to being profitable. Dont forget that FR isnt thought of yet as a domestic carrier within Italy.
Quoting Airblue (Reply 19): I forgot to mention the average LF in June for Ryanair on the entire network was 87%.
The FR average 78% loadfactor is a sold load, not carried. This means its also includes no shows, which in the europe (shorthaul) average at about 5%. adding 5% onto the above routes makes them look even better. If FR could attract half the passenger yield of AZ on MIL ROM it would profitable for them.
AirBlue, Bear in mind that I'm not an FR fan. I dont like the carrier, and dont fly with them. That doesnt take away from the fact that Italy domestic is a market about to be transformed by Ryanair, and will decimate AZ. FR have taken on and beaten LH, BA, KL, IB, Etc. AZ are next.
Stirling From Italy, joined Jun 2004, 3943 posts, RR: 27 Reply 23, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 2325 times:
Quoting Joost (Reply 8): As an airport operator, NRN is defenitely not performing good.
Does Europe have too many airports?
Or too many airports trying to be commercial airports?
Quoting BestWestern (Reply 21): That doesnt take away from the fact that Italy domestic is a market about to be transformed by Ryanair, and will decimate AZ. FR have taken on and beaten LH, BA, KL, IB, Etc. AZ are next.
In which markets?
Quoting Joost (Reply 8): From many places in Holland, NRN is closer than AMS, but here people just don't know that there actually is an airport there
Do they do any marketing?
Where do their passengers come from?
Joost From Netherlands, joined Apr 2005, 3128 posts, RR: 4 Reply 24, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 2329 times:
Quoting BestWestern (Reply 21): FR have taken on and beaten LH, BA, KL, IB, Etc. AZ are next.
I can not totally agree with you on that.
Indeed, Ryanair started competing with BA on the domestic market and on the UK-Ireland routes, and they have their fare share on the market there. They have their own market, with parallel routes with BA. Instead of LHR-GLA, there is a STN-PIK. The travelers on the STN-PIK route will be partly people transferred from GLA-LHR, but probably even more people who took the train or bus before. According to the Boston Consulting Group, 60% of European LCC travelers never flew on traditional carriers ever before. They took train or bus, or did not travel. Besided, BA is still active on the domestic routes, serving its own market.
They are not such a threat for KL. FR serves the Dutch market with EIN, CRL and NRN. All airports are on a reasonable distance from the Randstad (Amsterdam-Utrecht-Den Haag-Rotterdam area, the economic centre of the country), AMS lies within. FR mostly serves from EIN and NRN the vacation and VFR-market. People who traveled by bus before to the costa brava, now fly to GRO. Here, they compete way more with Transavia and Martinair flights, than with KL. Come on, FR has 6 daily departures from Eindhoven and 7 from Weeze. KL has more departures to London only from AMS!
Ryanair defenitely can serve the business market, that is when they have multiple daily flights. Looking at the Dutch market, they only have a 2x daily to STN from EIN and NRN; CRL a bit bigger but also way more distant - way too distant for business travelers from the Randstad. Here, FR competes with KL on EIN-LHR / EIN-STN. That's right. But here, KL, flying with F50's, offers flights for people who just need to go to LHR.
I am less familiar with the German market, but also here it seems that they mostly fly for the Vacation and VFR-market. They will take a part of the passengers from LH indeed, but probably Eurolines is suffering way more from FR competition. By the way, LH and KL are both posting good profits!
I feel their entrance to the Italian domestic market is of a different kind, only comparable to the Domestic UK (or Ireland-UK) market of fullfilling an important role here. Also here, their opponent (AZ) is weaker than BA, KL or LH are. I have the impression it is also to show to Italian government and EU that they can also serve domestic markets - so support for Alitalia is not needed for national infrastructure.
Oh defenitely! Only thumbs up for the Ryanair negotiators. They are doing a great role, selling the story you nicely explained. I'd love to do the same as they do.
However, the real world is slightly different. Here Ryanair is not to blame at all - they sell a product and are right to do that as good as possible. However, many regional airport operators (including governments), seem to take the Ryanair view on regional airports as 'the truth'.
To operate a regional airport as a profitable business with the business model you drawed nicely, you need around 4 million annual passengers for breakeven. In some occasions a little less or more, but however. Take HHN as an example. They preview to carry 3.8 M passengers this year (mostly on Ryanair and Wizzair), and also preview to have their first profitable year in 2006. And here, the cargo department on the airport actually is the cash-cow, not the passengers. (for now, airlines don't even pay landing fees on HHN!).
NRN, launched with a lot of nice stories, is not profitable yet at all. It's an empty airport, with space for way more carriers. But it does not happen. Now, this airport is a private business and here I can't care. If investors want to believe the Ryanair story as a dream becoming reality and put their money in it and lose it: so be it. In this economy everybody has the right to invest money in let's say high-risk projects.
In many occasions, regional governments also give subsides to the airports and the operators. In some cases, this can be fully justified. Look at the tourism booms at destinations where FR started flying. If you are subsidizing 20 euro for a passenger spending 200 euro in your economy, great.
However, and here is the point, it should be well considered if you as a regional government (as the airport owner) are paying to create customers or to transfer customers. If it is creating: fine. If it is transferring, for example people who first flew to BCN now fly subsidezed to GRO, you should ask the question:
should the taxpayer pay for having tourists fly to airport B instead of airport A, going to the same town and spending the same amount of money.
That question has been asked in the CRL investigation. But still, many regional governments pay for transfering passengers. The only real winner here is Ryanair. Does Ryanair do anything wrong? Not at all. Their goal is to make profits, and they do greatly. Do (some) regional governments do something wrong: well, as their goal is to create a totale wellfare increase, they might ask themselves if they are doing the right thing.
Joost From Netherlands, joined Apr 2005, 3128 posts, RR: 4 Reply 25, posted (7 years 10 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 2313 times:
Quoting Stirling (Reply 23): Does Europe have too many airports?
Or too many airports trying to be commercial airports?
Yes Too many regions wanting their airport to be a commercial airport.
I made a short map of the airports in the Dutch-German area. (map taken from viamichelin). Bear in mind that it is an area of 350x275 km having the most dense railway network and one of the most dense highway networks on earth. For example, from Enschede (blue dot) to Amsterdam (on the left), it takes 2:00 (city center) / 2:15 (airport) by train, that runs every 30 minutes from 5:00 to 22:30. And this is what we here define as a intercity train to remote areas...
Okay, now a short description of those airports:
AMS: well-known no. 4 airport in Europe, KL hub. Great train connections with every place in Holland. 45 M pax.
RTM: serving the Rotterdam-The Hague area, known for one of the biggest seaports in the world, Shell Holland hq, etc. Transavia LCC network, some KL service. 2 M pax.
EIN: Dutch 'brainport'. Impressive technical university linked to Philips who has its R&D headquarters there. Lots of other knowledge-industry. FR services. 2 M pax. (EIN-AMS: 1:30)
NRN: Alternative airport for DUS. Well located for the Arnhem-Nijmegen region. But: Arnhem-AMS by train is only 1 hour! <1 M pax.
DUS: Main airport of northern Ruhr area. Wide network of services, will be a Germanwings LCC base. 20 M pax.
DTM: In the middle of the Ruhr area, recently developed as a EZY hub. 2 M pax.
CGN: Southern Ruhr LCC airport for Germanwings. 15 M pax. (IIRC)
MST: serving Maastricht. few scheduled services (AMS, SXF). < 1 M pax.
FMO: serving Munster-Osnabruck in Germany. 1.5 M pax, some Air Berlin services and DBA to MUC.
PAD (?): Paderborn-Lippstad, Air Berlin hub.
GRQ: only a scheduled service to ABZ for Gasunie (Shell natural gas).
And some distances to show how close: AMS-NRN: 2 hours by car. Arnhem-DUS: 1:15 by train, same to AMS.
Now here is the thing: LEY will be another regional airport. However this one will work. It is managed by AMS (which is 'full' ) and will be used to transfer low-cost and vacation traffic - just like BAA divides it pax on LHR, LGW and STN. It is also very well situated for the randstad area and a congestion-free area.
However, ENS (in blue) now ALSO wants to become a large low-cost airport! In their arguments and prospects, the count on getting passengers from a catchment area including the German Ruhrgebiet and Dutch Randstad - as if there aren't enough airports already over there! From Enschede to FMO is 45 minutes by car, to DTM 1:30. AMS is great by train. I don't want my tax money in another project like that...
Quoting Stirling (Reply 23): Do they do any marketing?
Where do their passengers come from?
They do in Dusseldorf city, and it is well-known in the area just on the other side of the border. However, there are way more people living close. There, they don't really market. AFAIK, passengers as 35/65 Dutch/German.
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Too many regions wanting their airport to be a commercial airport.
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