Philb From Ireland, joined May 1999, 2915 posts, RR: 14 Reply 3, posted (7 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 5149 times:
That's a very bold statement. What evidence do you have?
Passenger figures perhaps? Profit margins and cash flow figures maybe? Commercial performance in day to day trading in fuel, aircraft purchase and discount agreements with airports?
Come on, that was a very cut and dried statement, no ifs, no maybes.
Now back it up with some hard facts and solid trends that have led you to stake your reputation as a pundit so forcefully.
Squirrel83, at present there are 230 B737-800s outstanding for Ryanair.
Old European, there are no plans to sell any early B737-800s, by 2010, when MOL expects to be carrying more passengers than any other airline in Europe, the oldest aircraft will be only 11 years old and at just past mid life in cycles, assuming the original cycle regime isn't upgraded.
Maddy From Germany, joined Aug 2004, 163 posts, RR: 0 Reply 4, posted (7 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 5110 times:
Quoting Philb (Reply 3): Old European, there are no plans to sell any early B737-800s, by 2010, when MOL expects to be carrying more passengers than any other airline in Europe, the oldest aircraft will be only 11 years old and at just past mid life in cycles, assuming the original cycle regime isn't upgraded.
He meant that they resell the new ones cheaper than listprice because of the discount they got for the hugh order.
I heard that too.
Philb From Ireland, joined May 1999, 2915 posts, RR: 14 Reply 5, posted (7 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 5036 times:
That may be the case, and you may have heard it too but, seemingly, MOL hasn't.
To quote the Daily Telegraph of February 25 2005 at the time an order for 70 737s was confirmed:
"Michael O'Leary, chief executive, said the order would enable Ryanair to keep growing at 20pc a year, increasing the number of passengers carried from a forecast 34m in the year to March 2006 to 70m by 2011.
The planes, which are due for delivery between 2008 and 2012, will create 2,500 jobs at Ryanair, almost doubling the current 3,000-strong workforce.
"We expect to become Europe's biggest airline for passenger traffic by 2010-2011, dwarfing BA and overtaking Lufthansa", Mr O'Leary said."
Growth such as that cannot be achieved by selling aircraft.
If he is to achieve his target he will need all the seats he can get by growing the fleet and maintaining the current levels of utilisation.
MarBergi From Ireland, joined Aug 2004, 182 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (7 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 4855 times:
Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 8): Who would want to buy aircraft that needs expensive heavy maintenance?
Would it not make sense if the acquisition cost and maintenance costs were less than purchasing a new aircraft? I mean if RYANAIR were to sell them on at a cost that made sense then I can't see them having any problem getting rid of them.
Well, the 757 line is now closed so that's not an option, but I don't see them changing to any other aircraft than the -800s. Commonality makes sense for an airline like Ryanair and the -800 is neither too big nor too small, so you will see them flying with Ryanair for a long time.
"A typical maintenance program begins with nightly inspections of each airplane, which consists of a detailed visual inspection and a review of the pilot’s report. There are then scheduled periodic inspections:
A Check - This is a more detailed visual inspection conducted every 4 to 5 days after 65 to 75 flying hours. The interior and the exterior of each airplane is visually checked for general condition and any obvious damage, with particular attention given to areas where exposure to accidental or environmental damage may have occurred.
B Check - This check occurs approximately every 30 days. Specific access panels are removed for inspection. In addition to engine servicing, other safety and airworthiness items are checked as well.
C Check - This is performed every 12 to 18 months after the aircraft has flown about 5,500 hours. It is an in-depth, extended, heavy structural and maintenance check.
D Check - This is the most comprehensive inspection, conducted after 20,000 to 25,000 flying hours. The paint is removed from the exterior, and the interior of the airplane is completely stripped to allow for close inspection of all structural members of the fuselage."
Philb From Ireland, joined May 1999, 2915 posts, RR: 14 Reply 13, posted (7 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 4782 times:
With a 14-16 hour utilisation per day (which is roughly what Ryanair aims for), the 737-800s will go around 5 years before a D check is needed. The first of the original batch 800s have already appeared in the new scheme and, being 5 - 6 years old have presumably had a D check before repainting.
Erikwilliam From Brazil, joined Mar 2004, 2152 posts, RR: 14 Reply 14, posted (7 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 4732 times:
Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 8): Who would want to buy aircraft that needs expensive heavy maintenance?
if they are smart, they do the leasing with some sort of clause, of time period based and return the aircraft when haevy maintenance is needed, no, it´s a lessor problem really.
But then, I don´t know if that can be done.
Dida, Cafu, Lucio, Roque Junior, Roberto Carlo, Emerson, Ze Roberto, Ronaldinho, Kaka, Adriano, Robinho, Ronaldo
Olympicbis From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 15, posted (7 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 4631 times:
Quoting Philb (Reply 3): Now back it up with some hard facts and solid trends that have led you to stake your reputation as a pundit so forcefully.
Wow, do I really have such a reputation ?
Quoting Philb (Reply 3): at present there are 230 B737-800s outstanding for Ryanair
Philb, these are the hard facts you are asking for : 230 B737-800s outstanding. Do I see some megalomania here ...or just unbelievable capacity overestimation ??? And it is such people who allow themselves to judge how badly other carriers are managed ???? Thank you for providing us with the figures, I wasn't sure about the right numbers.
Stirling From Italy, joined Jun 2004, 3943 posts, RR: 27 Reply 16, posted (7 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 4595 times:
Ryanair seemingly flys to every secondary airport on the Continent and British Isles.
With 230 aircraft on order, they need to be utilized somewhere...
Does this mean Ryanair will be venturing into more larger, more well-known, and centrally located airports?
Are there still that many secondary, tertiary airfields remaining that could justify at least a single load of 180 passengers per day..(or whatever the Ryanair 737 holds...)
Connecting existing airports, with other airports.
Example: Only one French destination is served from Frankfurt-Hahn; only Paris-Beauvais is served from Rome-Ciampino..
France appears to be a key...but not domestically, I doubt there is room for a competitor to the TGV, but beyond the borders, that is another story.
Same might be said of domestic options from Milan-Orso Al Serio..or Barcelona-Girona.
What would be the shortest route Ryanair undertakes? Dublin-Blackpool?
LTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 12329 posts, RR: 12 Reply 18, posted (7 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 4451 times:
What would concern me is if Ryanair is growing too big, too fast with insufficient management structure. Those were factors, among many others, that led to the collasp of PeopleExpress here in the USA in 1987 after 6 years of operation. While Southwest is a relatively fast growing airline here in the USA, their growth has been over the last 30 years, has a better leadership structure and doesn't treat their pax or employees with overzelous penny pinching (ie: as O'Loony/Ryanair does). There may be a limit on how many people are willing to tolorate charter class, no-frills travel and with severe luggage limits that Ryanair has or will have to sustain high rates of growth.
TOMfly From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2004, 73 posts, RR: 0 Reply 20, posted (7 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 4346 times:
I wish ryanair would come to Nottingham EMA with a few based aircraft! The midlands is overcrowded by not so cheap low fares to the sun! Id love to see some Ryanair routes operating. Surely with more aircraft they will have to start looking for more bases!
WhiteHatter From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 22, posted (7 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 4255 times:
I think you are confusing the sale issue with a sale-and-leaseback arrangement which both Easyjet and Ryanair utilise.
They sell the new aircraft to a lessor and then get a good leasing deal. When it's time to end the lease, the lessor has an aircraft which they can place elsewhere and has a decent resale value based on that of comparable 738 aircraft which were not bought from BCA at huge discounts.
In all that complexity there are tax advantages and capital incentives for Ryanair and the lessor. Easyjet does it with the A319, which is sold the same day it gets handed over from Airbus.
Please remember Ryanair is an EU carrier, so it is comparable with someone like Southwest. Except that Southwest caters for 300 million people in the United States and Ryanair has a potential user base of 450 million within the EU. So just like Southwest has plenty of scope to expand, so does Ryanair as a pan-EU carrier.
Profits declared and the backing of some extremely heavyweight investors means that the squeaks of indignation from the armchair CEOs here are, as usual, just ill-informed squeaks. Those who know better and have decades of experience in airlines know better and are backing Ryanair with their cash.
Pe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 18822 posts, RR: 54 Reply 23, posted (7 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 4197 times:
Quoting Stirling (Reply 16): Ryanair seemingly flys to every secondary airport on the Continent and British Isles.
You'll actually find that the majority of airports it serves are actually primary airports for a city or town or area. In the Uk, Northern Ireland and Ireland alone, you have: Aberdeen; Edinburgh; Newcastle; Durham; Blackpool; Liverpool; Manchester; Leeds/Bradford; Robin Hood (primary for, for instance, Doncaster); Birmingham; East Midlands (primarily for, for instance, Nottingham); Cardiff; Bristol; Bournemouth; and so on. In Ireland, you have DUB; SNN; ORK; Knock; Kerry. In Northern Ireland, you have Derry. Sure, secondary airports are served, particularly in Germany and Spain, but primarily airports dominate.
What you must also remember is that 'secondary airport' does not necessarily mean 'a long way from the nearest main city.' Indeed, in certain cases, such as Rome Ciampino, it's actually closer to the city than the primary airport.
[Edited 2005-08-08 20:19:30]
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
Udo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 24, posted (7 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 4098 times:
Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 23): Sure, secondary airports are served, particularly in Germany and Spain, but primarily airports dominate.
They don't dominate. The primary airports they serve are in most cases linked with secondary airports. Or secondary airports are linked with secondary ones as well.
And yes, if you look at the local communities around an airport you will always find it to be their primary airport.
25 A350: Ryanair sees this limit of growth, too. That's the reason why they want to stop the aggressive expansion in 2010. If you remember that there are stil
26 N1120A: It will be with Boeing, seeing as they have so many aircraft on order. They don't need to order more to double their fleet size Not likely, given tha
27 Aircanl1011: What if the UK suffers a huge terrorist attack on their airline industry like that of 9/11 in the US. That hurt many US operators. If something like t
28 DouglasDC10: Aircanl1011, remember that Southwest Airlines was the only among the big US carriers to make profits in the third quarter of 2001. If the UK suffer fr
29 Philb: People keep mentioning Ryanair buying aircraft then selling them to lessors and leasing them back. Could those who say this is currently the case plea
30 Philb: I've just checked the Irish Aviation Authority pages and ALL current Ryanair aircraft are OWNED by Ryanair. In addition, I can find nothing anywhere i
31 IL96M: Will Ryanair go beyond Europe? US? Asia? etc. Maybe with a fuel/pax stop in Iceland?
32 KennyK: One point some people are missing is Ryanair is not a UK carrier, it is in effect a European carrier operating throughout Europe not only the UK and I
33 Philb: Ryanair has stated that it has no interest in long haul. The business model, logistics and infrastructure are totally different to the current method