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Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".  
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16694 posts, RR: 51
Posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 16816 times:

CO/UAL

AA/DL or AA/NWA

NWA/DL or NWA/AA



http://www.forbes.com/services/2005/...0816airlines.html?partner=yahootix


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
190 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCALPilot From United States of America, joined Oct 1999, 998 posts, RR: 14
Reply 1, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 16762 times:

Great!!! My pay goes down again.. "d'oh"

User currently offlineANCFlyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 16652 times:

CO/UAL - holy smokes I hope not.

I'd hate to see CO go down the crapper absorbing all the mess at UA - which would include lousy cabin service, lousy cutomer service, lousy airport delays at ORD and SFO, etc . . . .

What would CO do with all those Airbii??

I would like to see a CO 744 though  biggrin 


User currently offlineJuventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16630 times:

-NW and DL? Who will be doing the buying on that one?

User currently offlineRL757PVD From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4630 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16612 times:

Though Forbes is a well respoected bsuiness magazine, I would be utterly shocked at any of the above, as they all involve complete opposite fleets ,and NWa with either AA or DL involves alot of overlap. The lack of overlap is what really helped at US/ HP merger. I know the mergers discussion on this board are approaching the "NW DC-9 replacement" status But i think it is a safe bet to assume there would be some ( at least 50%-75%) fleet commonality. While alot of people say AK will remain independant, they are a prime fit for an airline like CO.

I think a greater benefit would be to take 1 legacy and chop it up to "feed amongst the pack" than to have mergers that woudl waste billions in overlap and consolidation costs. Limit wasted resources and enhance profitability.



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6482 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16593 times:

Quoting Juventus (Reply 3):
-NW and DL? Who will be doing the buying on that one?

They both will...they will both buy the farm together.



When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlineAKelley728 From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 2162 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16530 times:

Quoting N328KF (Reply 5):
They both will...they will both buy the farm together.

 bigthumbsup 


User currently offlineANCFlyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16467 times:

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 4):
While alot of people say AK will remain independant, they are a prime fit for an airline like CO.

I don't think Air Asia ( AK ) is going to present any issues for CO    And AS will remain independent - although I agree - it would be a great compliment to CO. As they already code share on some flights, and miles may earned on AS for CO and CO for AS, neither has anything to gain I believe.

[Edited 2005-08-16 21:34:46]

User currently offlineLemurs From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1439 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16465 times:

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 4):
While alot of people say AK will remain independant, they are a prime fit for an airline like CO

I assume you meant AS? If so, I agree. I just don't think AS is interested at all, and I'm not sure how interested CO would be. Is better west coast coverage, and the ability to open new service to Asia with 767/787's instead of 777's really what they want or need? It's a good idea in an expanding market, but right now it would just be added risk, I think.



There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those that don't.
User currently offlineRobertS975 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 931 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16435 times:
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Quoting Juventus (Reply 3):
-NW and DL? Who will be doing the buying on that one?

AF/KL would be the moneybags for that one.


User currently offlineJuventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16421 times:

HAHAHA, good one N328KF. I agree with you, If NW or DL absorb the other's debts, it could get ugly

User currently offlinePVD757 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3406 posts, RR: 17
Reply 11, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16404 times:

Quoting STT757 (Thread starter):
CO/UAL

AA/DL or AA/NWA

NWA/DL or NWA/AA

CO/UAL - no way! fleets too uncommon, CLE/ORD too close.

AA/DL - fleet wise could work (except for the 757 engines), but the DOJ would hack up Florida. these two airlines seem to be going differant directions right now too.

NWA/DL: ummm no. I don't know where to begin - fleet, hubs, route structure. blah, no thanks!

NWA/AA: about the same as NWA/DL.

IMO, NW is the least likely to merge with anyone. AA and DL COULD potentially match up well with AS, if anything. DH and NK could link or NK could join the merged US/HP. DL and CO is a long shot at best with CVG/CLE and fleet mix issues.

Good try Forbes!


User currently offline7E72004 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3587 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16364 times:

I think Frontier and Independence Air should merge...it would be a good match in my opinion. Frontier has the western hub and Independence has the eastern hub. It would be like the US/HP merger, except on a smaller scale.


The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6482 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16326 times:

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 12):
I think Frontier and Independence Air should merge...it would be a good match in my opinion. Frontier has the western hub and Independence has the eastern hub. It would be like the US/HP merger, except on a smaller scale.

Why would you ruin a perfectly good airline in F9 in that manner?



When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offline7E72004 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3587 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16295 times:

How do you know the airline would be ruined? If things are set up "corrrectly," i.e. financing, etc...then a pretty good airline could come out of it.


The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
User currently offlineAKelley728 From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 2162 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16279 times:

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 4):
I think a greater benefit would be to take 1 legacy and chop it up to "feed amongst the pack" than to have mergers that woudl waste billions in overlap and consolidation costs. Limit wasted resources and enhance profitability.

I agree completely. I would say that DL is probably the best one to split up among CO/NW and even AA.

CO - Gets 764s, 763s (GE ones), and 733/738s, and maybe 777s.
NW - Gets 763s (PW ones), 752s, and maybe MD88s.
AW - Maybe 777s, MD-88s, or 763s (GE).

CO - SLC
AA - JFK
NW - ATL
(CVG would be gone)


User currently offlineTornado82 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16280 times:

Quoting Juventus (Reply 3):
-NW and DL? Who will be doing the buying on that one?

Creditors, in bankrupcy court after the Ch 7... if they went through with that mess.

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 12):
think Frontier and Independence Air should merge...it would be a good match in my opinion. Frontier has the western hub and Independence has the eastern hub.

Why not just wait until FlyI Dies (HA! I'm a poet) when the price will be even cheaper than it is now. But even then, what does FlyI actually "own" besides gates @ IAD? Not the CRJ's (who'd want 'em anyways), and they run @ IAD, so no slots at DCA, so what good is this really?

CO/AS would be the only one I see that makes sense. For God's sake I hope my favorite airline wouldn't merge with the mess @ UA. I would have rather seen CO buy US than touch UA.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 24642 posts, RR: 86
Reply 17, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16242 times:
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Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 14):
How do you know the airline would be ruined?

Sorry, but N328KF is exactly right. Independence is up to it's eyeballs in debt and losing millions.

It would be a horrendous liablity for a merger with any other carrier.

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11127 posts, RR: 62
Reply 18, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16257 times:

This is kind of in the same vain as all the other "experts" and all the other lovely commentary by the media when they try to pretend that they have a clue about the airline industry. Honestly -- most people on A.net could probably make a far more educated guess about the state of the industry and/or any possible future airline mergers than just about anyone at Forbes or any other publication (not that I am knocking Forbes -- it is a very respected and distinguished publication).

I love this:

[UA + CO] would probably be the best match of all the major U.S. carriers.

Are they kidding? A heavily Airbus airline merging with an all-Boeing airline, an airline with overlapping hubs (ORD/CLE and IAD/EWR)? Besides, why on earth would profitable CO ever want to waste their time, money and resources on a bankrupt UA?

Executives at American Airlines parent AMR have no desire to jump into the merger game, given the carrier's disastrous merger with TWA, which it purchased and liquidated. The experience was a major blow to the egos of American Airlines management and workers, many of whom lost their jobs.

I wouldn't exactly call the AA-TW merger a "disaster." The world around the merger, yes -- a "disaster" -- no argument. But, IMO, the actual AA-TW integration was one of the smoothest in airline history. There was some drama because TW people lost their jobs, but there wasn't thousands of bags piled up in STL, there weren't catering carts with no planes to fit into, there weren't crews lost in translation with no idea what plane to go to. All of the hallmarks of earlier, universally regarded "disaster" airline integrations generally didn't apply here. I'd say it went pretty well, but maybe that's just me.

Uh, you can say that again. AA announcing a merger would be promptly followed by AA's unions burning down their headquarters. Not gonna happen. AA doesn't need NW, its Airbus fleet or ancient DC9s, its horrible labor relations, or its hubs that all overlap with AA's. Asia is not worth all that, plus NW's enormous debt load.

Northwest would bring U.S. upper-Midwest and Asian routes; Delta has its strong Atlanta hub and the lucrative shuttle between Boston, New York City and Washington, D.C.

This is the only hypothetical merger scenario that he raises that even makes slight sense -- DL and NW have highly complimentary route networks with virtually no overlap and would greatly expand each other's reach. The synergies, however, stop there, but the problems don't. DL is almost completely non-union, NW is among the most heavily unionized airlines in the U.S. DL has a predominantly Boeing fleet, with not a single Airbus, NW has a mostly Airbus fleet.

Stranger things have happened, but I really think journalists should stay out of the airline industry projecting game.


User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6482 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16192 times:

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 14):
How do you know the airline would be ruined? If things are set up "corrrectly," i.e. financing, etc...then a pretty good airline could come out of it.

This is the same mentality that brought us into this mess. It does not address the fundamental issue of overcapacity.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 18):
Are they kidding? A heavily Airbus airline merging with an all-Boeing airline, an airline with overlapping hubs (ORD/CLE and IAD/EWR)? Besides, why on earth would profitable CO ever want to waste their time, money and resources on a bankrupt UA?

UA is a "heavily Airbus" airline? Out of 416 aircraft (airfleets.net), 104 of them are A32x series aircraft. That's 25%.



When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlineOzarkD9S From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4879 posts, RR: 22
Reply 20, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16163 times:

Here we are chopping up Delta and the thread I started on the very same subject was deleted and I was flamed from all sides for suggesting it.

The hypocrisy on this forum never ceases to amaze me.



Next Up: STL-TPA-BWI-PWM-BWI-STL
User currently offline7E72004 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3587 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16150 times:

I hope you are not referring to my mentality N328KF...as i would not appreciate an insult like that.


The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16694 posts, RR: 51
Reply 22, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16091 times:

Quoting PVD757 (Reply 11):
CO/UAL - no way! fleets too uncommon, CLE/ORD too close



Quoting Commavia (Reply 18):
Are they kidding? A heavily Airbus airline merging with an all-Boeing airline, an airline with overlapping hubs (ORD/CLE and IAD/EWR)? Besides, why on earth would profitable CO ever want to waste their time, money and resources on a bankrupt UA?

Who says they would not consolidate operations, ORD and EWR obviously take precedent over CLE and IAD. Also long rumored to be heavily involved with the CO/UAL deal is Boeing and GE, they would rationalize the fleet to a managable level of types. They could live with a 757/767 and 777 fleet with two engine types, the biggest question is the narrowbody fleet (A319/20s).

Future orders for more 777s (200LR, 300ER) as well as more 787s would be involved, possibly even some 747ADV should Boeing decide to launch the program and Boeing and GE give CO/UAL a great deal to be a North American launch customer to partly replace UAL's 747-400s.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 23, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16075 times:

One point to consider, it there was a merger (doesnt matter which two airlines, pick any two) of two legacy carriers, the remaining carriers would quickly look for partners as well......the logic would be that the remaining carriers would be unable to compete with the merged mega carrier and they too would have to find merger partners as well. Thus, if AA and NW annouced a merger, CO, DL, CO, US/HP, and even independent minded AS would start pairing off.

Will this happen? I really dont think so. We have heard about several of these combinations before and there is a variety of reasons why most, in the long run, do not make much sense. Aside from operational issues such as divergent fleets and hub rationalization, the biggest problem with airline mergers in the past has been the intergration of airline employees and dealing with unions and seniority issues......we are talking about huge airlines in this case (not a big airline taking over a smaller carrier) which makes the situation even more difficult. Also, the legacy carriers are a financial mess: CO and AA are in better shape than the others, but neither is in good financial condition and even AA and CO needs many profitable quarters to get their balance sheets back to an acceptable level, UA is still trying to figure out how to get out of bankruptcy, DL seems to be headed to bankruptcy court, NW is facing a major labor problem, and AS is having its own opeational and labor issues......its not a pretty picture. I dont see mergers as an answer.....instead, current problems would be compounded with more problems.

The combination that makes the most sense is CO and UA...and I, for one, really do not see CO merging with UA and then attempting to solve all of the problems that UA cannot seem to solve on their own with the benefit of the protection of the bankruptcy court.

I really do hope that all of the airlines can survive and prosper, but I still think that we will see one major US carrier fail in the near term future (I dont want to predict which one)....the remaining carriers will directly and indirectly benefit for that happening. Time will tell.


User currently offline7E72004 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3587 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 16077 times:

Obviously, if UA/CO ever did happen, CLE would probably be taken off the "hub" status...


The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
25 Isitsafenow : The AA/NW makes the most sense. AA would shuffle the ORD hub over to DTW. You forgot AA wanted to buy NW around 2000 and close the ORD operation and m
26 Invicta : Are they kidding? A heavily Airbus airline merging with an all-Boeing airline, an airline with overlapping hubs (ORD/CLE and IAD/EWR)? Besides, why on
27 N328KF : It's not an insult. But you suggested that the answer to DH's problems was to throw more money into the black hole. The airline industry is a great e
28 Mariner : Why would GE want to wipe out an Airbus customer and what would they stand to gain? cheers mariner
29 DeltaGuy767 : Hello All, Here is my take on the mergers listed above. CO/UA: No way, CO wouldn't want all of UA's debt and especially those Airbii. But it could pro
30 Commavia : They're a h*ll of a lot more "heavily Airbus" than CO, which hasn't operated a single Airbus aircraft in over ten years. Huh? When did AA ever say th
31 SHUPirate1 : I wouldn't say that...the only union groups at NW are the Pilots (ALPA), Agents and Clerks (IAM), Equipment Service Employees and Stock Clerks (IAM),
32 EclipseFlight7 : I like how the guy bases these mergers solely on route authorities. He's using 40 year old ideals to base them off of. Why would Delta give a toss abo
33 Invicta : You are right, I don't suppose they would, but the point I was trying to make is the suppliers may want to fund a merger where they would have a new
34 SRT75 : I think it's a little too early to call HP/US a success. Time will tell. The Boeing/Airbus issue is overrated. When TW and AA merged TW employees cou
35 Hoya : About CO/UA, even Bethune stated in the past that these two would be a good match. ORD and CLE being too close? Well it's obvious in a merger fleets a
36 RL757PVD : Lets be fair and chop up each legacy..... Northwest DTW.....DL or CO would drop CVG/CLE in a heartbeat for DTW, if DL could afford it, NK could also i
37 RL757PVD : Though look how quick and painlessly they cleared the hurdles compared to the UA/US merger which ended up costing both company tens of millions of do
38 Airknight : my head is hurting from reading these merger threads, its like peter max all over again. Focusing on the business side of things, you merge in order t
39 Commavia : IMO, AA is at least as well off as CO financially.
40 STT757 : GE would love to "create" a large customer for the 787, 777-200LR, 777-300ER and perhaps the 747ADV (all GE powered). The Airbus issue is outside of
41 STT757 : CO/UAL Domestic hubs: EWR, ORD, IAH, DEN, SFO Focus Cities: LAX, IAD
42 Airknight : [quote=Commavia,reply=39][IMO, AA is at least as well off as CO financially.] Wasn't AA close to declaring bankruptcy post 9/11?
43 Indy : Why do people think (not refering to you in this case STT757) that if you combine two bad business plans that you'll all the sudden get a successful
44 Commavia : They were, back in April 2003, and since then have completely turned things around. They are still not at sustainable profitability, but neither is C
45 STT757 : I think there's a possibility that there be two large mergers, CO/UAL and AA + either DL or NWA.
46 Indy : Ever think that maybe we should reregulate the airline industry? Ok its probably a dirty word but with all the money that is being lost it may not be
47 N328KF : Why is it bad for them to lose money? The idea here is that enough of them will go out of business to allow the rest of them to regain profitability.
48 UAcosCS : You would never get that chance, It would still be a UAL747 But it would be nice to see a 757-300 in UAL paint.
49 Tornado82 : On the other hand, PIT should become like CLE. Remember who makes money (CO), and who loses money. AMS aside, it pretty much is like PIT as it stands
50 Mariner : But there are large customers already. Anyone who can afford to buy goes to GECAS first (or ILFC). Note: Anyone who can afford to buy". Just merging
51 AirFrnt : That's the single most suicidal match I have heard off. Independence Air simply does not have a workable route map, it's overdependence on regional t
52 Lemurs : If not better...people confuse good management with good financials. CO is very well run, but they're pretty tapped out in terms of debt to earnings,
53 Post contains images Allstarflyer : At SFO? I've worked in several different capacities at ORD and I don't know how SFO could compare. The only good thing Frontier could get from this i
54 ORD2PHL : Are they kidding? A heavily Airbus airline merging with an all-Boeing airline, an airline with overlapping hubs (ORD/CLE and IAD/EWR)? The current air
55 AirRyan : The article reads where a lot of analysts are pessimistic about the merger of US Airways and America West? Sure, nothing is certain but I like AWH cha
56 Post contains images CO767FA : It is amazing that a carrier that has been in BK for 3 years has employees that still have such a cocky attitude. Yes, CO has been in BK 2X and both
57 Paddy : I do believe Forbes is on the right track in predicting consolidation in the US airline industry but the specifics are undoubtedly far too difficult t
58 Indy : No its not bad for them to lose money but the taxpayers keep footing the bill for this. If you regulare the industry the ticket prices will go up and
59 TCFC424 : Remember that often times a merger is conducted and soon after large chunks of what was a former company are on the auction block after the main compa
60 Post contains images UAL777 : CO767FA, whether you like it or not, UA has much better name recognition world-wide and IS the bigger carrier. It would make sense to go with the UA n
61 Scotron11 : Well, I might as well add my two cents. I think there will definitely be more consolidation in the US aviation market, either thru mergers, acquisitio
62 Indy : I'd have to disagree. Having ORD & ATL as your hubs would be the fast track to the worst on time record in the industry.
63 Tornado82 : Not really unlike JFK and FLL, or PHL and FLL, or ORD, SFO, and IAD.
64 STT757 : EWR is CO's most profitable hub, other airlines openly admit to trying to copy CO's EWR operation, why on Earth would anyone want to move any of it's
65 ANCFlyer : Welcome aboard A-Net CO767FA . . . careful here, CAT is rough at times and the armchair CEOs are everywhere . . .
66 STT757 : 3-4 majors and 3-4 large LCC's with Nation Wide coverage (WN, B6, FL, F9?), there will be a "Big Six" but half will be LCC's.
67 EA CO AS : Actually if CO and UA were to merge, CO would likely be the surviving carrier. UA has diluted their brand with "Ted" and has spent the last almost 3
68 CO767FA : UAL777, It could be argued that Pan Am had the ultimate name in the industry, with TWA being next. Both were recognized world-wide, but in the end: No
69 Commavia : In a hypothetical (and highly unlikely, IMO) CO-UA merger, I think that the combined airline would have a structure much like the present HP-US merge
70 EA CO AS : I'm in agreement with you about everything - save the name. I firmly believe CO's would be retained, as it definitely has more brand equity to it the
71 CO767FA : The HP name is limiting, most people would think they only fly in the American West. Eastern Airlines had this same problem when they attempted to gr
72 N908AW : ***WARNING: TEENAGE ARMCHAIR CEO OPINION*** My thoughts are that NW/AA would be the best combo for consumers. AA's move to DTW would help that awful p
73 N328KF : Why is it that all of you people outside of the ORD area keep recommending this? Those of us in Chicago happen to like two major hub carriers here fo
74 N908AW : Well, you kinda gotta think about the other 280 million people living in America. Not everybody lives in Chicago, you know. Nothing against the incred
75 Post contains images Usnseallt82 : How about WN, B6, AS, and F9 merging into the mutant-LCC! Sorry, had to liven things up a bit. Cheers!
76 Tornado82 : CO's name means quality right now to travellers... at least the most quality you can get in the US air travel market, and not embattled in any legal
77 Tsnamm : considering the discrepancy in the number of flights and destinations served between the 2...the lead CO has is not that impressive....compare 2 hub
78 Post contains images GentFromAlaska : Delta buys Continental the new company becomes DELCO In about a year Air Canada (AC) merges in and the new company is named AC DELCO
79 UAL777 : CO767FA, The Pan Am/ TWA arguement is invalid because Pan Am was essentially auctioned off in pieces and TWA was a shadow of what it once was when it
80 Ckfred : First of all, if AA won't even commit to buying 787s, then why in the world would it buy a struggling carrier? Second, if AA does buy a carrier such a
81 Tornado82 : Do I get frequent flier miles for buying an oil filter??
82 CO767FA : It is a very valid point, the Pan Am and TWA names had(have) "Goodwill" value that was intrinsic to the routes they sold. To this day, people can ide
83 N908AW : There are plenty of cows being had around the federal government and their desire to unclog ORD. Although I'll agree that a full-scale pullout at ORD
84 Post contains images USAF336TFS : Interesting back and forth on this whole question of which legacy will swallow up which. My gut tells me that AA and CO will be, at least two, of the
85 Cubsrule : Would AA cut their O&D by more than 50%??? Tough question. I don't have overall O&D numbers handy, but DTW has far less O&D. You act as though we lik
86 UAcosCS : Put aside loyalty, employee status, or whatever you can come up with and use your head. United is bigger in Asia and the US, Flying into LHR(has to b
87 Rogerthat : Because 2 half asses equal a whole.
88 UA772IAD : I think the legacies would go out of business before merging with another competator. Honestly, this is the United States of America, these corporate
89 EA CO AS : Actually UA was far more sinister than that. There were a few occasions where - when they knew CO's cash on hand was critical - they hoarded up sever
90 HunUtazo : UAL will be trimmed and merged into CAL... Why? 1.Retained Preference 2.CALs model is tremendously efficient 3.UALs model is BK and continues to be 4
91 STT757 : Bigger but not better.. CO serves more cities in Japan and the UK than UAL, infact CO serves most International destinations of any US airline.
92 NASCARAirforce : I never knew of this to be a fact. I don't recall ever hearing this idea and I lived in Detroit back then. However, I think it would be a great idea.
93 Mariner : I love the way people are brightly saying that aircraft could be sold or "returned to lessors". It doesn't quite woirk like that. To sell: If you flo
94 Aa777jr : Where would AA/NW fly their 744 to?
95 HunUtazo : Here's how it works: 1. Create a viable business plan 2. Sell the business plan to the Major interest holders and major new investorss 3. Restructure
96 Delta767300ER : WTF, Are we trying to create Aeroflot here? -Delta767300ER
97 Post contains images Mariner : Um - I thank you for your lesson in economics. I am enchanted that you do not think I am old enough to know these things. There are a few problems wi
98 BostonGuy : That's a great idea! With airline executives and management making astoundingly bad business decisions, and greedy airline unions unable to see long-
99 N908AW : Burning question: Is the extra O&D worth it for the $$$ they lose on delays, cancellations, etc.? A mid-level presence in ORD could still capture a c
100 BostonGuy : Etc., etc., etc.,... I won't quote the rest of the long list. It's exactly that kind of blather that got the airlines in this mess in the first place
101 Goomba : Personally, I think the AA/DL scenario makes the most sense. I'd kinda like to see it.
102 N328KF : I'm sort of reminded of the king who asked someone to tell his future, and was told "You will destroy a great empire!"
103 CTHEWORLD : WRONG, United has more brand equity that Continental, and is a more recognized brand worldwide. Just because you think the Continental should survive
104 N908AW : Now that I think about it... ATL could end up as a STL-style hub for AA. The fleets are VERY compatible. I don't know if they'd keep the MD-90s thoug
105 ARGinLON : Well... I agree with you in terms of Asia, Australia and probably UK due to the LHR issue. Apart from that I reckon CO has a far better image in Euro
106 UAcosCS : I should have chosen my words better. I may have UA in my titles but UA has the brand name. Refer to a classic case of not wanting to believe the tru
107 Post contains images Bmacleod : NW and AA aren't going anywhere near DL. They would rather see DL die a natural death through bankruptcy then pick up the pieces...
108 Avek00 : Much as I hate to say it, in a hypothetical CO/UA merger, CO mgmt. would be fools not to use the United Airlines name - on a global basis, the brand s
109 EA CO AS : Sorry to burst yours, but you're wrong. If it were 10 or 20 years ago you'd be spot-on, but in today's environment your assertion is incorrect. A mer
110 CO757bos2iah : As a newbie here by a few days myself I shall try to weigh in on this without sticking thy foot in mouth......... I concur. We're very efficient and l
111 Post contains images DAYflyer : Not to mention corporate culture clashes out the whazoo.....and nobody in their right minds is gonna absorb $20 Billion in DL debt or NW, DL labor he
112 NWAFA : I do think we are going to see the mergers starting. AA/NW - no way! AA was/is a mess from the TWA scam. UA/CO wont happen because NW gets to say yes
113 Commavia : I agree completely. AA and CO are probably going to be just fine. The others are all pretty much 'up in the air,' for lack of a better term, at the m
114 Post contains images ACAfan : This will have to do. Speaking of which, I like the old colors better.
115 Post contains images Kiwiandrew : my understanding was that NW have veto rights in the event of a takeover of CO by another airline- not CO taking over or merging with another carrier
116 SBN580 : And the above statement seems to be the only answer that anyone ever comes up with to industry problems. Not only re-arrange the deck chairs on one T
117 STT757 : The indisputable fact would be the folks in Houston would be running the airline, also keep in mind that airline names etc are tied into the culture
118 Dutchjet : Interesting discussion.........if CO and UA were to merge (while it makes the most sense of the possible combinations, I still dont see it happening)
119 SBN580 : Con-U-Air?
120 Post contains images JoFMO : Well, what a nice airline code would be CU. Unfortunately it's already used by an communist enemy
121 Post contains images Usnseallt82 : I still think my mutant-LCC idea is a good one. Clears up everything! Cheers!
122 Spink : How about the Continental US routes being run under the Continental name and all other routes being run under the United name. I don't even think of
123 Post contains images Birdbrainz : I think that in order to get that past the DOT, they'd have to spin-off TED, and would send the A320s to TED along with it. If you remember, UA/US wa
124 Post contains links Mariner : DEN/ANC is short haul? Or DEN/FLL or DEN/LGA or DEB/BWI or DEN/DCA or DEN/MCO or DEN/RSW? Or DEN/CUN, or DEN - you get the point. As for cheap: http:
125 Boeing7E7 : They've merged already... Codeshare's are the first step in a merger. Look at who's in which program and you have your merger without the associated h
126 Gigneil : And then they'd fly what? Ted has like 36 A320s. That leaves 120 some odd A320 series planes. You can't replace the other 120 A320s with 737s in any
127 Post contains images EA CO AS : Except for the name - which I'd suggest as "BorgAir"
128 Tornado82 : Then get the money together and start working on the new one instead of pissing away money studying Peotone, and building parks at Meigs. ORD is a di
129 BostonGuy : Sounds nice. Not true, however. It's been proven time and time again, no matter the industry (airlines included), that specific industry experience c
130 Commavia : I think you'd find at least a few people on these boards besides me who would strongly disagree with that point. Other industries have challenges, bu
131 Christao17 : One thing I haven't seen addressed in this discussion has been international consolidation. While I know there is currently a 25% foreign ownership c
132 Post contains images Sllevin : I can't see CO/UA happening. Why? Asia. To keep UA's Asia Operation CO would have to end it's alliance with NW and pull out of Skyteam. At that point,
133 BostonGuy : And you're how old again? How many years work experience do you have and in how many industries? Exhaustive studies and research have been conducted
134 Tornado82 : Obviously you mean F9... but still... DEN-PHL, and other DEN-East coast trips are now "short haul?" How is that significantly different than B6 going
135 Commavia : First off, where -- exactly -- are these "exhaustive studies" into the competitive challenges, dynamic economic forces and operating complexities inh
136 STT757 : CO's Micronesia network and their long hauls from EWR to Beijing, NRT, HKG (and soon New Dehli, and Shanghai in '07) tie in perfectly with UAL's NRT
137 UAcosCS : Cant sell these routes to any US carrier, only AA and others outside the US. Some Bermuda II act or something. The whole UA/CO merger and what name w
138 NASCARAirforce : First of all, I don't believe any mergers will happen. However, how did AA get out of the TWA 717 leases so quick? None were ever around long enough
139 COEWR777 : The AA/Nw route map would look sick
140 Mariner : Why would they do this? They get tremendous advantages to new aircraft, with mx guarantees, etc., plus excellent tax write downs, etc. Because of thi
141 MX757 : I've been reading this thread for a day or so and felt compelled to be come a member so I could put my 2 cents in. I am an aircraft maintenance/avioni
142 Post contains links BostonGuy : My extensive work for this company on behalf of several airlines gives me insight you simply don't have. I think that carries far more weight than yo
143 NWAFA : I still think its going to be NW/DL. On a side note, our pilots union (ALPA) is setting up a "merger committee"..wonder if they know something.
144 Post contains images CO767FA : What happpens to the agreement in the event of BK by NW? In any case, NW has a say in someone buying CO, but not in CO buying another carrier or asse
145 Post contains images EA CO AS : Has it really, now? Again, source? Agreed - the problem facing UA is that every day that we get closer to the (strong, eventually) possibility loosen
146 SBN580 : Actually, when I think of the name "Continental," I think of an airline that would stay within the continent it served. An airline that transversed m
147 Commavia : Seriously -- get over yourself. I could not possibly care less about where you have worked or the "extensive work" you have done for one or one hundr
148 UAcosCS : It is never to late, BA would buy them in a heartbeat to keep Richard Bransons' hands off the slots. BA doesnt want Virgin to have them, plain and si
149 Post contains images 7E72004 : The way i see it is, you can have all of the mergers you want but still have the same capacity. The only way to cut capacity is to cut routes, planes,
150 UAcosCS : 7e7204, Good point, but I do think US/HP is cutting a few routes, not enough to make a difference. UAcosCS
151 STT757 : Perhaps MX757 or someone else can answer this, how much (%) commanality is there between a 777 with Pratts and a 777 with the GE 90, same with the pra
152 HunUtazo : The price of oil/terrorism trumps all, Continental/United will/is happening, Continental Management and Name will survive, the rest is a virtual posth
153 BostonGuy : Cool! You watch CNBC! Hmmm... you watch CNBC but don't always pay attention. Errrr... wrong. And this segues into your claims about the unique obstac
154 Commavia : BostonGuy -- please don't speak in absolutes about things you don't know absolutely. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
155 BostonGuy : Practice what you preach. Try getting into college, while you're at it. And a job would help, too. We've all got your number.[Edited 2005-08-19 00:16
156 Post contains images Usnseallt82 : Hmm...I want to jump into this so badly, but I will let it pan itself out. Cheers!
157 RogerThat : One of the best CEO's Commavia's beloved AA ever had came from outside the airline industry. The late Al Casey worked for the Southern Pacific railroa
158 Post contains links BostonGuy : It took a few hours to find shareable sources... here's a book co-authored by a co-worker at my parent company... Profit Patterns Take a look at "Pat
159 Jimbobjoe : Someone asked about this above... Continental's charter has a poison pill built it, to prevent hostile takeovers. Poison pills prevent takeovers by al
160 CO757bos2iah : Amen. All the trouble thats been put into making our current fleet as simple and streamlined as possible.....why would you throw a wrench into it.
161 Post contains images HunUtazo : Oil, LCCs, proactivity & inevitability...
162 Tatfsn : Agreed--and what airline in its right mind would even CONSIDER absorbing United and all of its problems? Especially Continental, after having just cl
163 HunUtazo : I think you're correct, no relevance, other than $65-$70+ oil prices, the never ending march of the LCCs, SouthWest Airlines hedged at around $30 dol
164 CO767FA : Like that has ever stopped the egos in the airline management business. Management would build a fence around the airline and keep a/c divided until
165 Cslusarc : I don't think that megers are not in the cards for any more US carriers. (Unless UPS or FedEx wants to acquire a pax airline as it emerges after filin
166 Post contains images Fleet Service : Strictly in the realm of hypothetical discussion, AA could pick up those DL 763's and 4's as an A300 replacement.Seating and load wise the 764's would
167 NASCARAirforce : Mariner, I got somewhat misquoted on that, but its a good part my fault because I didnt make myself clear. What I meant was, there are a ton of LCCs
168 Tatfsn : And apparently your solution to all of these is that very innovative and never tried before course of action--mergers. Yeah. It's always worked like
169 Mariner : Oh, sure, some, yes. But if other airlines was believed that NW was going to replace all their A320's, the price would simply collapse, and no one wo
170 Flashmeister : Btw, don't be too sure of this. B6 and F9 are very different airlines in terms of the product they offer. B6 offers cheap long haul with perks. F6 off
171 UA772IAD : Because UA has all the international routes that everyone else can't seem to get for many reasons. I also don't understand why some individuals think
172 Aa757first : Let's see, FLYi has several unions (I know F9 has no flight attendant union, FLYi is AFA, and FLYi is AMFA, not sure about F9), worthless planes, the
173 Post contains images Usnseallt82 : US is losing money? Ah, I think you have to have something first for it to be considered 'lost.' Also, I think we will see CO starting to lessen on t
174 STT757 : UAL7772IAD, As a former resident of Fairfax County I can appreciate what IAD has to offer, I used to travel back and forth with my to EWR and LGA on P
175 Post contains images CO767FA : Actually, IAD used to be a NewYork Air Hub and we literally switched with UA. They got IAD and we got CLE!
176 UA772IAD : No of course not, thats why I said inhabitant wise, we are no where near the NY area. But I strongly believe that dropping IAD as a hub would be a mi
177 BostonGuy : Dropping IAD as a hub isn't going to close the airport. And though US ambassadors, diplomats, senators, congressmen and other government officials ma
178 NASCARAirforce : Don't get me wrong, I don't want any mergers to happen unless it is a last resort. Growing up in the Detroit area, and regularly flying up to DTW from
179 Mariner : We agree. Nor do I think it is likely to happen. cheers mariner
180 777PURSER : I do not forsee AA merging with anyone anytime soon. We are getting our own routes to Asia, starting with Delhi in November and Shanghai next year. Mo
181 STT757 : If CO/UAL merge I don't think they would abandon IAD, it would probably look something like AA's BOS operation.
182 UA772IAD : Of course another airline would take over (probably American), it would be a serious mistake to move all, or most of United's European routes (which
183 STT757 : Other than LHR (which UAL used to operate from EWR) what routes does UAL fly from IAD that CO does not already offer from EWR, CO has something like
184 UA772IAD : Really? Allow me to list Dulles routes Brussels (1x) Paris (1x) Frankfurt (2x) Munich (1x) Amsterdam (1x) London (3x) Zurich (1x) Ottawa (3x) Toronto
185 STT757 : I was refering to Trans-Atlantic Routes, I was correct in that UAL flies 7 Trans-Atlantic routes.
186 UA772IAD : Ooops, you were only talking about Trans-Atlantic routes. Still, this is what you would lose at IAD.
187 Indy : Its a bad idea because why? Because the consumer will have to pay more?
188 BostonGuy : Re-regulation would be a bad idea. It's not just that consumers would have to pay more for airfares, it's how much more. Look at average airfares on
189 Indy : The difference between regulation and deregulation is under regulation the flying public pays for this. In deregulaton the general public plays for t
190 Post contains images Kiwiandrew : I have been reading a lot about the potential for a UA/CO deal - yes , there are the obvious "cons" the mismatched fleets , disparate corporate cultur
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