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NW And The 767: Why Not?  
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3599 posts, RR: 20
Posted (9 years 4 months 13 hours ago) and read 6644 times:

This is probably the only NW thread that is not about the strike. But I was just thinking.

Back when NW was looking at replacing the DC10s they were presented with the 777 (too big) and the A330 (just right). Why didn't Boeing offer the 767?

If NW had been shown the 767 would they have considered it? Why didn't they consider it? Was it every considered? It is comparable in size to the A330 and the newer models are pretty good aren't they?

Was it that NW could get an A332 and A333 so it could do both Pacific and Atlantic ops with similar equipment?


Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
17 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently onlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26795 posts, RR: 75
Reply 1, posted (9 years 4 months 13 hours ago) and read 6624 times:

Boeing did offer the 767 several times to NW, but NW found it each time to lack the cargo capacity they needed.

Quoting Centrair (Thread starter):
Was it that NW could get an A332 and A333 so it could do both Pacific and Atlantic ops with similar equipment?

From the A332 markets, NW could fly a 763ER.

It should be noted that they have ordered the 787, a direct competitor to the A330 and a replacement for the 767



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7768 posts, RR: 27
Reply 2, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6440 times:

Quoting N1120A (Reply 1):
It should be noted that they have ordered the 787, a direct competitor to the A330 and a replacement for the 767

The 787 in NW's planned configuration will be significantly smaller in capacity that the A330-200, it is not a direct competitor.

As we've discussed numerous times, NW considered many options for its DC-10 Trans-Atlantic replacement - 763's, 772's, and A330's. Many variables came into play, but the A330 one out as the best mix of passenger & cargo capacity, range, and price. The 777 was too big, the 763 too small. After the downturn in the industry, NW converted some of the -300's on order into -200's. The flexibility from Airbus allowed for this, even though it wasn't part of the initial plan.


User currently offlineSupa7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6395 times:

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 2):
After the downturn in the industry, NW converted some of the -300's on order into -200's. The flexibility from Airbus allowed for this, even though it wasn't part of the initial plan.

The A332 was needed to go across the Pacific.

Are you saying they did not initially plan A330 Pacific flights? Were they planning to use the B742 and DC-10 forever?

If the A333 could make it to Tokyo, surely they would have selected that model instead for the huge booming Asia market.


User currently onlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26795 posts, RR: 75
Reply 4, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6359 times:

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 2):
The 787 in NW's planned configuration will be significantly smaller in capacity that the A330-200, it is not a direct competitor.

If they convert orders to the 789, then you are talking about a far superior, direct competitior



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineAviatorTJ From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1838 posts, RR: 7
Reply 5, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 6246 times:

It was rumored at one point that NW was going to lease some of US's 767 fleet. Of course, NW was expanding its flying, had less A330s, and US was looking for cash. The deal obviously fell through due to dollar amounts among other things.

User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7768 posts, RR: 27
Reply 6, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 6183 times:

Quoting Supa7E7 (Reply 3):
Are you saying they did not initially plan A330 Pacific flights? Were they planning to use the B742 and DC-10 forever?

At the time of the initial A330 order, no. The initial order was for 24 A330-300's to be a one-for-one replacement of the DC-10's across the Atlantic.
The Pacific operations were to be the 744, 742, and DC-10. However, the game changed drastically after the post 9/11 downturn, SARS, and rising fuel costs. NW released that the 742's were way too much capacity in many markets. Thus, they converted 10 A330-300's on order into -200 models to use in the Pacific. This was at the same time that NW started flying A320's (now 752's) out of NRT. NW realized they needed to get as many 742's & DC-10's out of the Pacific as possible. Then earlier this year we saw the follow-up order of additional A330's to replace the last of the DC-10's.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 4):
If they convert orders to the 789, then you are talking about a far superior, direct competitior

Perhaps, yes, but NW's 787's are going to seat about 220 passengers, less than the 240-seat A330-200 and 270-seat A330-300. Each aircraft has a different purpose within the fleet.


User currently offlineAirRyan From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2532 posts, RR: 5
Reply 7, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 6097 times:

I never tire of discussing NWA's fleet plans and I'd love to have an opportunity to crunch the numbers for real with NWA in the near future!

I believe that the A330 in either the -200 or -300 will end replacing all the DC-10's in their service, so that decision is all but made.

NWA will be the first North American carrier to begin using the 787-800's in 2008 when they placed an order for 18 firm with 50 options. Some of these options could be for the slightly larger 787-900 that can do 259 pax over 8,300 miles that will be available later on late 2010.

Other than the 787-900, I also see NWA interested in the upcoming 747ADV to replace their 747-200's and eventually even their 744's (remember NWA took delivery of the very first 747-400 in 1988.) I think NWA likes the 747 a lot since they have been operating them going back to 1970 and I don't see them getting rid of their 744's for A380's unless Boeing simply decides not to offer a 747ADV.

Another option may be for 777's in some form or fashion to replace the 747's but I think they may be too small and/or too short ranged for NWA's purposes. I would expect NWA to seriously consider either the 747F ADV or possibly even the 744F like what UPS just ordered, and possibly even the 777F to replace their freighters with or possibly even any combo of 747/F ADV's and 777/F's.



I would expect that NWA would consider the A380 but I think the 747ADV will end up ultimately better suiting NWA's fleet plans and mission.



Now with DC-9 fleet, one of the most popular topics on A.net! I think the rising fuel costs are basically going to have NWA replace them sooner than perhaps they would otherwise like because of the high fuel prices and ever increasing mx problems associated with older aircraft like that. Given that Airbus already has 78 A320's and 70 A319's, I expect NWA to most likely even out their heavy fleet with Boeing 747ADV (or 777's) to complement the already ordered A330's, so this could go obviously one of two ways: more A320 series or possibly, possibly 737NG's. Embraer and even the new Bombardier C series are outside longshots here, but will be looked at if not early on ruled out.

I would expect around a 125 plane order with perhaps 66% 737-600 and 33%737-700's or if they stay with a similar order from Airbus (which would totally solidify the chance they round out their heavy fleet with Boeing 747ADV and 777 in my opinion) for a 66% A318 and 33% A319 order.

Current NWA Fleet:
Boeing 747-451: 16
Boeing 747-251: 6
Boeing 747-251SF: 13
Airbus A330-323: 8
Airbus A330-223: 7
McDD DC-10-30: 22
Boeing 757-351: 16
Boeing 757-251: 56
Airbus A320-211/212: 78
Airbus A319-114: 70
Douglas DC-9-51: 35
Douglas DC-9-41: 12
Douglas DC-9-31/2: 103



Hypothetical NWA Fleet 2010-2015:
Boeing 747ADV:22..........or Airbus A380-800:18......or 10 of each
Boeing 747F ADV: 13...or Airbus A380F: 10...or Boeing 777F: 13...OR 6 of each
Boeing 787-800: 54
Boeing 787-900: 25
Airbus A330-323: 14
Airbus A330-223: 14
Airbus A320-211/212: 78
Airbus A319-114: 70 / 113….or Boeing 737-700: 43
Airbus A318: 82……..or Boeing 737-600: 82







[Edited 2005-08-25 06:04:50]

User currently offlineGLA MD11 From France, joined Mar 2000, 277 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 5930 times:

Great post AirRyan.

How realistic would it be for NW to have both A320 family and B737s in their fleet? Don't you think that commonality would push them toward an all-Airbus short-haul fleet?

I had not thought of NW ordering A318 before your post. Have they shown any interest yet?

As for the 747ADV / A380 debate, it has already taken place on other threads. Have they shown any interest at all? Could that situation change now that they are closer to AF?


User currently offlineSupa7e7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 5844 times:

The great thing about NW is they are the world's only truly formidable McDD, Boeing AND Airbus operator! Each of these 3 fleets include plenty of narrowbodies and widebodies!

User currently offlineAviatorTJ From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1838 posts, RR: 7
Reply 10, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 5798 times:

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 7):
Boeing 747ADV:22..........or Airbus A380-800:18......or 10 of each
Boeing 747F ADV: 13...or Airbus A380F: 10...or Boeing 777F: 13...OR 6 of each
Boeing 787-800: 54
Boeing 787-900: 25
Airbus A330-323: 14
Airbus A330-223: 14
Airbus A320-211/212: 78
Airbus A319-114: 70 / 113….or Boeing 737-700: 43
Airbus A318: 82……..or Boeing 737-600: 82

Where is the 757 in this? I do believe the A320-A330 gap is a little too big.

Interesting hypothesis nonetheless.


User currently offlineBurnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7564 posts, RR: 8
Reply 11, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 5729 times:

Quoting GLA MD11 (Reply 8):
I had not thought of NW ordering A318 before your post. Have they shown any interest yet?

NW said that they will not consider the A318 because its poor short flight performance, sure they are great for longer hauls, but capacity like that is typically only DC-9 short haul flying. Secondly NW also has said they have to interest because of its poor design, the gates at DTW for instance, would be far to close to the engine, and would likely cause damages several times being that they are so close to the front door.

Quoting GLA MD11 (Reply 8):
How realistic would it be for NW to have both A320 family and B737s in their fleet? Don't you think that commonality would push them toward an all-Airbus short-haul fleet?

Again, unlikely, the 736 and 737 are not good short haul performers, replacing DC-9 routes would be too costly with them as they are too heavy and so fourth.

Quoting GLA MD11 (Reply 8):
As for the 747ADV / A380 debate, it has already taken place on other threads. Have they shown any interest at all? Could that situation change now that they are closer to AF?

NW already said that the A380 is too big and that historically airlines only got the 747 for its range, and not capacity. Of course a few flights do need the capacity but NW has already said that the A380 is out of question. The 747-ADV NW is interested if the time comes, even talk of them being the pax launch customer, only time will tell.



"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009
User currently offlineAirRyan From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2532 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 5675 times:

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 12):
Again, unlikely, the 736 and 737 are not good short haul performers, replacing DC-9 routes would be too costly with them as they are too heavy and so fourth.

They have already begun to park a portion of the DC-9 fleet partly because of the strike but also because of the rising fuel costs. I cannot believe the A318 or 736 can sell a single airframe if they cannot replace the short haul DC-9's in NWA's fleet - I'm not saying I disagree with you but rather just that eventually the DC-9's are going to be replaced and I believe NWA is beginning to look into sooner rather than later.

We all know how well the 717 would have fit as a replacement for the DC-9 but now what does NWA do and others like it? I think a 737NG and A319 are a bit overkill for half the current NWA DC-9 flights, so please tell me the EMB-1909 is not going to be the only option! I did like the fleet commonality with just going for more A319's and adding in the A318.

The EMB-195 can seat 118 at 31" pitch in single class or 112 mixed with 6 seats at 36" and the remaining 106 at 31". According to Embraer's website the plane has a 53% breakeven point so in that roughly 100 seat market perhaps they may be a better option than the 736 or A318?

Perhaps an order for perhaps 40 more A319's and 85 Emb-195's might be able to replace the DC-9 fleet? I don't know what else they may consider unless they want to become a launch customer for the Bombardier C series and their relations with the CRJ's they now use at Mesaba, but right now there are more questions than answers on that platform. Embraer has done a good job of laying out their case for the E-Jets and if the economic numbers are as good as they say, they have to be the #1 option for the inevitable DC-9 replacement.

Check out the link below for the issue of Emb-195's at the gate:
http://www.embraercommercialjets.com...t/ejets/default.asp?tela=economics

http://www.defesanet.com.br/embraer/emb170-190/emb170-190.jpg

http://www.embraercommercialjets.com...ejets/doc/SpecSheet_EMBRAER195.pdf

Quoting AviatorTJ (Reply 10):
Where is the 757 in this? I do believe the A320-A330 gap is a little too big.

I thought about that and the best conclusion I could come up with is that the 787 order of 18 firm plus 50 options means that in due time at least they are likely going to replace them. I could very well be wrong as the 753's have become fairly sought after and they may find a new place/route for them.

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 12):
Quoting GLA MD11 (Reply 8):
As for the 747ADV / A380 debate, it has already taken place on other threads. Have they shown any interest at all? Could that situation change now that they are closer to AF?

NW already said that the A380 is too big and that historically airlines only got the 747 for its range, and not capacity. Of course a few flights do need the capacity but NW has already said that the A380 is out of question. The 747-ADV NW is interested if the time comes, even talk of them being the pax launch customer, only time will tell.

I agree, the A380 is likely just too big for the routes NWA currently uses but I think the 777-300ER might be the only pax 777 they might consider other than going with a 747ADV. I think NWA will want to replace their 747 classics and freightor fleet with either the 747ADV series or the 777 series with their respective freighters, and I would only imagine it would be cheaper for them to place one big order and get a better deal to replace their 744's as well, albeit slotted at the end of the order.

How would this look? The A380F might still be considered for freightor use but considering the commonality of using the 747F ADV or 777F it's very unlikely.

Current NWA 2005 Fleet:
Boeing 747-451: 16
Boeing 747-251: 6
Boeing 747-251SF: 13
Airbus A330-323: 8
Airbus A330-223: 7
McDD DC-10-30: 22
Boeing 757-351: 16
Boeing 757-251: 56
Airbus A320-211/212: 78
Airbus A319-114: 70
Douglas DC-9-51: 35
Douglas DC-9-41: 12
Douglas DC-9-31/2: 103

Hypothetical NWA Fleet 2010-2015:
Boeing 747ADV: 22……….or Boeing 777-300ER: 22……….or 11 of Each
Boeing 747F ADV: 13....or Boeing 777F: 13........or 6 of each
Airbus A330-323: 14
Airbus A330-223: 14
Boeing 787-800: 44
Boeing 787-900: 25
Airbus A320-211/212: 78
Airbus A319-114: 113
Embraer 195: 85 (112 seats - 6 at 36" pitch and 106 at 31")

[Edited 2005-08-25 18:35:29]

User currently offlineN501US From United States of America, joined May 2005, 222 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 5605 times:
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Quoting Supa7E7 (Reply 3):
Are you saying they did not initially plan A330 Pacific flights? Were they planning to use the B742 and DC-10 forever?

Didn't they order 340s when they intially ordered the 330s, as well? All of those orders were changed but I seem to recall they had ordered 340s. Or has Jack Daniels blurred my memory...hmm?



Fools and thieves are well disguised in the temple and the marketplace.....
User currently offlineFrugalqxnwa From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 565 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5535 times:

NW did order A340s when the A340 first came out in the early '90s, but they were cancelled due to financial problems. The A330s were not ordered until 2000, IIRC.

Air Ryan,

I believe the 757s will be around for quite some time and the 787s will be used for transpacific routes with not enough demand for the A330. Both the 752 and 753 should be in your 2010-15 fleet projection.


User currently offlineCslusarc From Canada, joined May 2005, 843 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5531 times:

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 12):
Hypothetical NWA Fleet 2010-2015:
Boeing 747ADV: 22……….or Boeing 777-300ER: 22……….or 11 of Each
Boeing 747F ADV: 13....or Boeing 777F: 13........or 6 of each
Airbus A330-323: 14
Airbus A330-223: 14
Boeing 787-800: 44
Boeing 787-900: 25
Airbus A320-211/212: 78
Airbus A319-114: 113
Embraer 195: 85 (112 seats - 6 at 36" pitch and 106 at 31")

I think that the 747-400 will continue to fly in NW colors throughout 2010-2015. (I think that NW will have converted about 6-10 of them to -400SFs by 2015 depending on how many they return to lessors.) So 11 of those 747ADV (or 6 747ADV & 6 777-300ERs) and 6 of thouse 747F-ADV would undelivered firm orders arriving in 2016-2020.

I think that 44 787-8s is too much .... I'd rather see 24 787-8s and 25 domestically configured 787-3s.

I think the Embrarer 190s may be better as its equipt with less than 100 and 2 FLIGHT ATTENDANTS (remember the 1:50 seat rule).



--cslusarc from YWG
User currently offlineAirRyan From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2532 posts, RR: 5
Reply 16, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5497 times:

Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 14):
I believe the 757s will be around for quite some time and the 787s will be used for transpacific routes with not enough demand for the A330. Both the 752 and 753 should be in your 2010-15 fleet projection.

I do remember reading in the Boeing press anouncement when NWA ordered the 787 that they were going to use them trans Pacific.

Quoting Cslusarc (Reply 15):
I think that 44 787-8s is too much .... I'd rather see 24 787-8s and 25 domestically configured 787-3s.

Yeah, I know they had 18 firm with options for 50 more but my numbers were also assuming the departure of all their 757's which quite frankly I just didn't know what they were going to do with. This was why I did not see the 767-300ER with NWA because they had already made the signal for the 787. I assumed the 787 would go to replace a lot of them, but perhaps they will keep a good portion of them?

Quoting Cslusarc (Reply 15):
I think the Embrarer 190s may be better as its equipt with less than 100 and 2 FLIGHT ATTENDANTS (remember the 1:50 seat rule).

Interesting in how that will play into the sales of the E-195, but then again how does NWA do it now with their DC-9's?

The E-190 can get you 12F at 36" pitch and 88Y at 31" pitch so perhaps that would be enough to replace the DC-9-30's (16F/84Y) but the -50s' (F16/Y109), I think you would need at least the Emb-195 (12F/100Y) and even then your losing seats so that's why I figured on some more A319's to offset the difference but maybe their not even nescessary.

If they wanted to get a good deal with Embraer in one big deal NWA could opt to replace what I would imagine has to be expensive in the 4 engined Avro RJ-85's (16F/53Y) and repalce them with some Embraer 170's 36"/31" (6C/64Y) and obtain some fleet commonality but perhaps the unions/pilots wouldn't like that idea?!

Hypothetical NWA Fleet 2010-2015:
Boeing 747ADV: 22..........or Boeing 777-300ER......or 11 of each
Boeing 747-400SF: 13
Airbus A330-323: 14
Airbus A330-223: 14
Boeing 787-800: 24
Boeing 787-900: 25
Boeing 757-351: 16
Boeing 757-251: 35
Airbus A320-211/212: 78
Airbus A319-114: 70
Embraer 195: 135 (112 seats - 6 at 36" pitch and 106 at 31")
Embraer 170: 35 (70 seats - 6 at 36” pitch and 64 at 31”) Northwest Airlink by Mesaba

[Edited 2005-08-25 20:45:00]

User currently offlineB4real From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2661 posts, RR: 5
Reply 17, posted (9 years 3 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 5369 times:

The short answer of no 767 for NW is that the LD3 cargo container can't be used on the 767 IIRC.


B4REAL, spelled like it sounds
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