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Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?  
User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3342 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3825 times:

The problems with the A380's weight may or may not be resolved satisfactorily and the aircraft will now be delivered several months late.

I imagine the UPS order for 744F's was negotiated primarily to extend the lifetime of the 747 line by several months, this giving Boeing more time to decide on a 747Adv launch.

Are Boeing buying time to see how the A380 turns out? In a few months time the A380 issues may be clearer, putting Boeing in a better position to reappraise what share of the very large aircraft market they could expect the 747Adv to achieve.

30 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSean1234 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 411 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3807 times:

I think Boeing should go for it. The specs on the A380 are only marginally better than the 747Adv, but with much of a weight premium. Maybe someone could post the side by side comparisons again.

User currently offlineDougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3776 times:

Udo and Scorpio front and center!

Coffee break's over.  Cool


User currently offlineCol From Malaysia, joined Nov 2003, 2087 posts, RR: 22
Reply 3, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3771 times:

I also believe Boeing should go with the 747ADV, primarily in the form of the freighter. They are outselling the 380 in this roll with the 744F, and even with the conversion market, sales are still good.

Col


User currently offlineSquirrel83 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3758 times:

Quoting Art (Thread starter):
I imagine the UPS order for 744F's was negotiated primarily to extend the lifetime of the 747 line by several months, this giving Boeing more time to decide on a 747Adv launch.



Did UPS cancel or replace the A300-600F order with the A380F orders?

http://ups.com/pressroom/corp/press_releases/press

Quoting Sean1234 (Reply 1):
Maybe someone could post the side by side comparisons again.

The Boeing 747-400 freighter has the capacity to carry a structural payload of 250,000 pounds with a range of 4,400 nautical miles.

Although found this site on how the A380F is a poor freighter!
http://www.payloadasia.com/Magazine/archives/05_05/0505_focus.html
“The A380 Makes A Poor Freighter. “Why does the A380 make a poor freighter? Let’s start with poor structural efficiency. Compared to 747-400ERF, for an additional 32 tonnes of payload, the A380 requires 92 tonnes of additional structure (operating empty weight), every day, for every trip.


Edit: Added more information, hopfully helpfull??

[Edited 2005-08-25 19:15:15]

User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3342 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3734 times:

Hello again all! I was asking if Boeing's strategy is to buy time, not so much to see reactions to the 747Adv proposal, but to see how the A380 turns out.

Quoting Art (Thread starter):
Are Boeing buying time to see how the A380 turns out? In a few months time the A380 issues may be clearer, putting Boeing in a better position to reappraise what share of the very large aircraft market they could expect the 747Adv to achieve.


User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8045 posts, RR: 8
Reply 6, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3727 times:

I believe that they 747ADV is going to be approved and is going to pull in its fair share of orders. B isn't rushing it, which probably reflects the discussions they are having with airlines on a wide range of aircraft.

User currently offlineGARPD From UK - Scotland, joined Aug 2005, 2584 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3709 times:

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 2):
Udo and Scorpio front and center!

Coffee break's over. Cool

We need Keesje too!
No one else posts can misinterpret and spin like he can Big grin



arpdesign.wordpress.com
User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3342 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3685 times:

Quoting Squirrel83 (Reply 4):
Are you looking from Boeings Context or UPS'? Others have stated the order has been placed for large and heavy loads, that the 777F/A380F would not be able to handle.

I was looking for Boeing's context. No doubt UPS would not have ordered these frames if they did not have a use for them but they may have been induced to order with an exceptional price. B win / UPS win situation, I think.


User currently offlineAirRyan From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2532 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3679 times:

I think the 747ADV is all but a go and would expect it to be officially announced sometime after the official launch of the A350 if for no other reason other than to take some of the hot air out of their bubble.

User currently offlineWINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 69
Reply 10, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3643 times:

Quoting Squirrel83 (Reply 4):

The Boeing 747-400 freighter has the capacity to carry a structural payload of 250,000 pounds with a range of 4,400 nautical miles.

http://www.airbus.com/en/aircraftfam...ies/a380/a380f/specifications.html

The Airbus A380F will be able to transport 152.4 tones (335lbs) over 10.400km (5,600nm).

It seems to me that the Airbus does have a niche market all to its self.

Does anyone have the figures for the B747ADV Freighter?

Regards,
Wings



Aviation Is A Passion.
User currently offlineBostonGuy From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 514 posts, RR: 8
Reply 11, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3578 times:

Quoting Art (Thread starter):
Are Boeing buying time to see how the A380 turns out? In a few months time the A380 issues may be clearer, putting Boeing in a better position to reappraise what share of the very large aircraft market they could expect the 747Adv to achieve.

Boeing buying time? As in the way Airbus bought time waiting to see what response Boeing would get from the 787?

I get the impression Boeing is very confident in their projections for the marketplace and understands that they are doing really well with the 787, in part, because Airbus bought time.

So now, I don't think Boeing is buying time... I think they're making minor tweaks here and there as they stick with their projections (which will, as all projections do, need a few tweaks now and again).


User currently offlineGlareskin From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 1294 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3488 times:

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 2):
Udo and Scorpio front and center!

Coffee break's over.

This is it! You are not only in my respected users list, you are on top..  Big grin

In this sometimes all too serious stuff we need to laugh once in a while, and this is I believe the second message I read from you and I cannot help laughing.  bigthumbsup 



There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
User currently offlineUdo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 3372 times:

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 2):
Udo and Scorpio front and center!

How about staying on topic?

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 9):
I think the 747ADV is all but a go and would expect it to be officially announced sometime after the official launch of the A350 if for no other reason other than to take some of the hot air out of their bubble.

If it's such a bubble, why would it need a new Boeing model's launch to burst?



Regards
Udo


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 3315 times:

Quoting Art (Thread starter):
Are Boeing buying time to see how the A380 turns out?

I´m sure they are. If BA, CX and JAL buy the A380 they´ll probably reconsider.


User currently offlineAirRyan From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2532 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 3270 times:

Quoting WINGS (Reply 10):
The Airbus A380F will be able to transport 152.4 tones (335lbs) over 10.400km (5,600nm).

It seems to me that the Airbus does have a niche market all to its self.

That's nice and all but unless you have that thing full everytime your not going to be making money so plan your fleet accordingly. Even still the A380F will not be as easy to load as the 747F with it's swinging nose; remember the 747 was originally designed for military use. Also, the A380F cannot go into as many airfields as a 744F.

Now of course if you have the need for a A380F and utilize it, I would imagine it would be fairly profitable but not as numerously successful as the 747 has been.


User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3342 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 3218 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
Quoting Art (Thread starter):
Are Boeing buying time to see how the A380 turns out?

I´m sure they are. If BA, CX and JAL buy the A380 they´ll probably reconsider.

You forgot the smiley after BA and JAL, didn't you?

There must be a few potential buyers waiting to see how the A380 works out. If the news is bad, the projected market for very large aircraft will stay the same so the prospects of selling more 747Adv will improve.


User currently offlineCheckraiser From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 3200 times:

Quoting Udo (Reply 13):
How about staying on topic?

And he delivers!  Big grin


User currently offlineHa763 From United States of America, joined Jan 2003, 3596 posts, RR: 6
Reply 18, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3072 times:
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Quoting AirRyan (Reply 15):
remember the 747 was originally designed for military use.

Negative. The 747 grew out of advancements gained through the CX-HLS competition, which became the C-5. The biggest and probably most important advancement was the development of high thrust engines needed to power the C-5. Without these new engines, the 747 would never have left the ground. Boeing went through over 200 different designs before deciding on the 747 we know today. However, the 747 was always designed to be a cargo aircraft because it was thought that supersonic aircraft would soon takeover passenger traffic, relegating subsonic aircraft like the 747 to cargo duty.


User currently offlineHZ747300 From Hong Kong, joined Mar 2004, 1647 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3041 times:
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Quoting Ha763 (Reply 18):
because it was thought that supersonic aircraft would soon takeover passenger traffic

Until people started complaining when hearing the sonic booms over their homes... Selfish bastards!  mad 

Boeing can afford to play it wait and see because the airlines are too. Once the Cargolux order goes through, that will push the building forward from there. I expect then the passenger orders will follow closely. However, I am more curious to know what types of variants will be offered with the B747Adv. Will there be a shorter one providing longer range? Will the be a longer one for high density intra-Asian routes? Will it be a flop, and the prototype is retired and the wings are left to serve as a canopy for a gas station in Aquilla Hills, Texas?



Keep on truckin'...
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 11929 posts, RR: 25
Reply 20, posted (8 years 7 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3007 times:

Quoting Udo (Reply 13):
How about staying on topic?

Gee, and I always thought you had a good sense of humor, Udo. Anyhow, to stay on topic, I doubt Boeing is "buying time to see how the A380 turns out". B747Adv is a 450 seat plane, A380 is a 550 seat airplane, so they don't directly compete. I imagine Boeing is doing whatever it can to find a market for their 450 seat plane, and they've already said that finding orders for the 744 is important for them in their goal of offering the 747Adv so it's good to see the UPS order.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineGlareskin From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 1294 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 2739 times:

Quoting Udo (Reply 13):
How about staying on topic?

Verstehen sie Spass?  Wink Come on Udo, you are well respected but this was good fun! And the answer you gave confirmed your own stereotype....

Scorpio, where are you??



There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
User currently offlineUdo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 2632 times:

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 21):
And the answer you gave confirmed your own stereotype....

Only for those who actually link that stereotype to me.


Regards
Udo


User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 2549 times:

IMO, Art's hypothesis is certainly plausible...so far, Airbus is making it easy for Boeing to follow such a course given the seemingly prosaic pace of the A380's flight test and certification program.

IMO, this is all academic anyway because the composite hull juggernaut will soon take hold and both the 747 and A380 will be dinosaurs anyway.

[Edited 2005-08-27 15:58:49]

User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3342 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 2510 times:

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 23):
...the composite hull juggernaut will soon take hold...

How soon is soon in your opinion? Assuming that only A or B could undertake such a development (and it would not seem to be to A's advantage to do this within 15 years), when might B embark on this?


25 Udo : Tell that to the airlines who have A380s and B747s on order... Regards Udo
26 Post contains images LifelinerOne : Why is it so hard for people to remember that the A380F and the B744F/AdvF will both serve their own markets? Not everyone needs a big nose for loadi
27 Jet-lagged : Some truth in that, but, that also depends on how much it cost and effort it takes to develop such a new craft. Yes composites would make a far more
28 Leelaw : IMO, if Boeing is able to introduce the advanced technologies into the marketplace seemlessly it will be relatively rapid, 5-7 years. IMO, on the hig
29 Dhefty : The A380 line, as a class, has no competition. The proposed B747Adv, if developed, could only nip at the heels of its bigger competitor. The real ques
30 Morvious : Good post!! The A380 has its own market. For airliners that can't fill the A380 they will wait and see what the future gives them. Airliners that can
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