Brasuca From Brazil, joined Mar 2004, 717 posts, RR: 12 Posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 8 hours ago) and read 1878 times:
I just came across this news:
"Linha do BNDES não garante compra de Embraer 190 por TAM" = The Brazilian state-owned Bank in charge of financing TAM new Jet orders, BNDES, does not give warranty they will necessarily chose an Embraer Jet.
The Bank says that TAM is evaluating which aircraft will fit their needs, that can be either the A318 or E190.
TAM is analysing the current F100 Market prospect, whether they will still need a 100-seat jets or not. In case they decide to operate larger aircraft, they will opt for new A319/A320/A321 orders instead, to set their narrow body fleet.
OTOH, if there will be demand for the 100-seat Jets, TAM will then face tradeoff between fleet commonality and E195 benefits. They will subsequently announce their decision, which is to be made in Nov.
BNDES say they can't meddle in the airline's decision. They are limited to offering a good deal on the national product by lower taxation rates, while TAM considers especially exchange rate stability.
I think TAM is under a trustworthy way of doing business. As we all know, they are conservative. Profit in first place.
The news summary, in Portuguese:
Quote:
"A linha que o BNDES prepara para financiar a venda de aviões Embraer a companhias aéreas no Brasil não garantirá a escolha da fabricante nacional pela TAM, que decidirá no final do ano qual aeronave substituirá os jatos Fokker 100 que ainda tem na frota"
"A empresa aérea terá que resolver se terá frota unificada, composta por equipamentos da européia Airbus, ou mista"
"Estamos olhando se o mercado hoje atendido pelo Fokker 100 justifica avião desse número de assentos ou maior (...) ou ficamos na simplicidade da família Airbus, o A318, ou vamos para uma complexidade de ter outro fabricante, o Embraer 190"
HiFi From Brazil, joined Apr 2005, 192 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 1705 times:
Quoting PPVRA (Reply 2): It all depends on how many they want to order
I agree. If they're planning to order something above 20 to 30 a/c, commonality is not a big issue anymore, and they can go for the E90/95s, assuming they're more economical (I'm just trusting B6 that they are, I have no numbers here. Anybody?)
And yes, the thread title is kind of misleading...
Dutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 58 Reply 4, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 1688 times:
Its seems as if there are two distinct questions:
First, does TAM require a 100 seat airliner?
Second, if TAM does require a 100 seater, will it be the A318 or E190 to replace the F100s?
So much depends on the routes that TAM has in mind for the 100 seat fleet - if it intends to simply replace the F100s with a newer aircraft and mainly fly shorter segments within Brazil and to nearby regional cities, doesnt the E190 offer superior economics? Commonality it nice, but we are talking about a large fleet of 25 or more aircraft so its not that vital......JetBlue decided against the A318 for these reasons. Does the A318 make sense on short hops of up to 1000 miles?
PPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8492 posts, RR: 43 Reply 6, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 1550 times:
WAIT a second!!
I remember that JJMNGR said once that the only reason JJ has A319s is because the A320s cannot fly into SDU. So I don't see much love between TAM and long, thin routes. That's an upper hand for Embraer, but then it all depends on how many they want to order....
Also, no hot and high ops in Brazil. Hot, but not really high.
Cheers
[Edited 2005-09-16 23:53:22]
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
Brasuca From Brazil, joined Mar 2004, 717 posts, RR: 12 Reply 7, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 1531 times:
Quoting Mariner (Reply 5): And I don't know the TAM route map, but also I wouldn't dismiss commonality here, especially if there are long and thin routes.
These are the non-stop hops TAM currently operates with F100, most of the routes are operated with three/four cities per flight. So, I assume range is not an issue. None is over 1000 miles.
BSB-GYN ........ 102 mi
CWB-FLN ........ 153 mi
IGU-ASU ........ 191 mi
CPQ-CWB ........ 216 mi
GRU-CWB ........ 223 mi
CGH-GIG ........ 224 mi
GIG-CPQ ........ 248 mi
BEL-SLZ ........ 305 mi
THE-FOR ........ 309 mi
IGU-CWB ........ 332 mi
SAO-UDI ........ 336 mi
CGR-CGB ........ 345 mi
BSB-PMW ........ 384 mi
FOR-REC ........ 389 mi
SLZ-FOR ........ 402 mi
SAO-VIX ........ 465 mi
GRU-GYN........ 501 mi
SSA-VIX ........ 522 mi
BSB-GRU ........ 529 mi
BSB-CGB ........ 546 mi
GRU-CGR ........ 564 mi
BSB-VIX ........ 586 mi
SSA-GIG ........ 753 mi
MAO-BEL ........ 808 mi
BSB-FLN ........ 813 mi
BSB-THE ........ 819 mi
JJMNGR From Brazil, joined May 2004, 1018 posts, RR: 17 Reply 9, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 1447 times:
PPVRA,
Yes you are right but A319 nor A320 can´t replace F100 where F100 operates, so A318 might be a possibility as so as E190 too. Still being under analisys.
Lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 10652 posts, RR: 100 Reply 10, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 1427 times:
Quoting KL808 (Reply 1): Well, if they go for the 100 seater market, I would hope they would go for the A318's.
Maybe another pw6000 customer? Ok, don't shoot me down too quick, I can hope can't I?
Quoting HiFi (Reply 3): commonality is not a big issue anymore
Actually, 20 or 30 airframes isn't quite enough to overcome commonality. However, looking at the routes Brasuca posted, there doesn't appear to be a big need for "long thin" but instead just a smaller jet.
I have to admit I'm mixed on this order. In my opinion, TAM will end up going with the best business solution, so I'm very curious to see what they pick.
One question, what is the required delivery time frame? Although, I have a feeling both Airbus and Embraer can find this slots for this important order.
Brasuca From Brazil, joined Mar 2004, 717 posts, RR: 12 Reply 11, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 1385 times:
Quoting PPVRA (Reply 6): he only reason JJ has A319s is because the A320s cannot fly into SDU
Yep... I heard that too. And if the A320 was certified to operate into SDU, they would change their A319 for A320. However, this must have been their initial plans only, because they interestingly use the A319 in several other routes, all over the country.
JJMNGR,
Do you know if TAM's F100 replacement plan comprises TAM Mercosur fleet as well?
Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 10): Actually, 20 or 30 airframes isn't quite enough to overcome commonality.
TAM's CEO says that two manufactures is a complex task: "...ou vamos para uma complexidade de ter outro fabricante, o Embraer 190".
But they've done very well in over a decade, having both Fokker and Airbus. In addition, Embraer is just right on the corner.
LipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11201 posts, RR: 61 Reply 14, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 1105 times:
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One important issue (and probably JJMNGR will agree). If the credit line from BNDES grant to TAM the advantage of a Brazilian currency debt (Airbus means leasing in US$) with reasonable interest and leasing rates, as at least 80% of all TAM's income are BR currency, i doubt TAM will choose the A318. And even with the complexity of other manufacturer, remember that it's Embraer with HQ just 100 miles far from TAM HQ (no problems for spare parts and maintenance could be made in Sao Jose dos Campos) and also, imagine the appeal with Brazilians and also the strong marketing it will allow to fix their brand as a Brazilian Airline using Brazilian Planes.
IMO, just another issue, if TAM uses E195 or E190, it could allow to use E170 for city's dropped in the past like Sao Jose dos Campos, Juiz de Fora, Marilia (where TAM has been created), and several other city's. Airbus does not offer something like that.
Good finance shape is very important and i think it's the biggest advantage of E-Jets. Debts and Incomes in R$. If BRL vs US$ rate goes UP (like 3,92 in 2002), TAM E-jets installments just remain the same while Gol, Tam (for Airbus fleet) and RG leasing will be increased (in R$).
Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
PPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8492 posts, RR: 43 Reply 15, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 1078 times:
Quoting 797 (Reply 13): But isn't the E195 more economic to operate than the A318?
Yes, but the A318 can fly further and carry more payload (due to being a shortened version). The E90/95 definately fit TAMs needs best according to the numbers above, IMO.
Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 14): Good finance shape is very important and i think it's the biggest advantage of E-Jets.
That and the lower CASM.
Cheers
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
100% agreed.
one big reason for B6 was also the CASM on each aircraft, and the E-190 preved to be cheaper.
And also, how it´s a lighter aircraft, landing and operating fees are cheaper.
that represents a lot, if you consider the amount of flights each aricraft will do daily.
If JJ takes a reasonable decison, Embraer will have the order
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Ok, don't shoot me down too quick, I can hope can't I? 
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