N908AW From United States, joined Aug 2005, 795 posts, RR: 1 Posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 1769 times:
A couple of things NW can be rid of to resimplify the airline, from the uninformed eye of a teenage armchair CEO:
The DC-9s: Do they really need replacing? AA's smallest mainline aircraft seats 130. The A319 seats 124. I say dismantle the 100-seat market, which really only consists of overused airports in the Midwest and some airports that can handle the A319 anyway. IMO, NW can simplify their fleet by beridding themselves of the DC9 product and simply contracting with two regional affiliates that use the CR7 or another 70 seat product. Frequency and maximum aircraft use is the key to getting one's bang for the buck.
The MEM hub: As with DL, NW has mistakenly disproportionally grown from its three hubs. DTW has grown enormously lately, adding service here and there on 9E. MSP has grown too, but not as much as DTW. MEM really only gets service to the major cities and to the tiny cities that only have MEM as their pivot point. If they want to compete with AA's ever-growing DFW presence, they need to create more MEM traffic for southern travel.
'Cause you're on ATA again, and on ATA, you're on vacation!
Web From United States, joined Jun 2005, 333 posts, RR: 0 Reply 1, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 1722 times:
N908AW, in regards to the DC-9s: I don't know if you know this, but NW has 150 of them, give or take a few. They are a vital part of the NW fleet and they cannot just leave. The 100 seat market is what is growing right now, and thus NW needs to keep what DC-9s they can. As you said, " Frequency and maximum aircraft use is the key to getting one's bang for the buck." The DC-9 was built for just that: short, high-frequency routes of medium demand. Pulling these aircraft from the fleet would be suicide, as they are, right now, the most economical way for NW to reach a great number of communities. Since they are 1. inefficient, and 2. vital to NW's health, they need to be replaced, not removed.
I have often wondered why NW did make the MEM hub larger or more like CLT in size to take advantage of the SE U.S. air traffic. It could have been used like US uses CLT as a Carribbean and Florida gateway. However I think the problem with that is the low O&D traffic there, and if NW merges with DL or CO then the MEM hub will most likely either be shut down to move to either ATL or IAH respectively or downgraded to a focus city similar in size to IND.
N908AW From United States, joined Aug 2005, 795 posts, RR: 1 Reply 3, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 1662 times:
Quoting Web (Reply 1): N908AW, in regards to the DC-9s: I don't know if you know this, but NW has 150 of them, give or take a few.
Quite aware. I know it's a lot, and a retirement would take years, but retirement must be imminent with some of those -9s pushing the 100,000 hour mark.
'Cause you're on ATA again, and on ATA, you're on vacation!
AirRyan From United States, joined Mar 2005, 2282 posts, RR: 11 Reply 5, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 1485 times:
You would have a hard time picking up the DC-9 w/o a direct replacement or a lot more A320 series aircraft. By cutting back on some of the frequencies of the DC-9 flights an A319/320 might be able to replace some of the DC-9 routes but most likely a new RJ like an E-190 or a CRJ-900 will eventually is the only thing that could replace most DC-9's.
What I would look into would be to replace perhaps 80% of the current DC-9's with a CRJ-900 to maintain the CRJ fleet commonality (rather than go the E-190 route even though that still may be worth it) and order more A319's to replace the other remaining 20% of DC-9's and operate them on a slightly less frequent schedule.
Tango-Bravo From United States, joined Jun 2001, 3328 posts, RR: 37 Reply 6, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 1474 times:
Quoting N908AW (Thread starter): I say dismantle the 100-seat market, which really only consists of overused airports in the Midwest
Hmmm... Do you mean "overused" (as in congested?) Midwest airports like FAR, BIS, MSN, GRB, DSM, OMA, GRR among a host of others that come to mind?
And while jettisoning the 9s seems like a "no brainer" to some, virtually all of the type in NW's fleet are owned and have been fully amortized for years, a factor that is, no doubt, a major consideration in NW's planning.
N908AW From United States, joined Aug 2005, 795 posts, RR: 1 Reply 7, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 1462 times:
Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 6): Hmmm... Do you mean "overused" (as in congested?) Midwest airports like FAR, BIS, MSN, GRB, DSM, OMA, GRR among a host of others that come to mind?
Yes. The airport listed in my signature also comes to mind. 2x CRJ is better than 1x DC9, unless there's a yield issue.
'Cause you're on ATA again, and on ATA, you're on vacation!
Midway7 From United States, joined Aug 2004, 123 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 1393 times:
Quoting AirRyan (Reply 5): What I would look into would be to replace perhaps 80% of the current DC-9's with a CRJ-900 to maintain the CRJ fleet commonality (rather than go the E-190 route even though that still may be worth it) and order more A319's to replace the other remaining 20% of DC-9's and operate them on a slightly less frequent schedule.
Good suggestion. A couple of items to analyse:
1. The Union situation with respect to doing this.
2. Are the 319's going to be leased? Lease rates are going to be a lot higher in the future, because of the BK. A cost benefit analysis comparing newly leased 319's to existing (owned) DC9's would be necessary. I would make it a rolling matrix with fuel prices as the predominate variable. My thought is there will be a price point for fuel that will be the deciding factor. If the data favors the DC9's, keep them until their number is up, then replace with a 319. Retaining only 20% of the DC9's should allow NW to pick the cream of the crop.
Anyone know how the ownership of the DC9's will play in the BK. They probably have a book value of 0, however I would imagine they collaterize some loan. That could be an issue.
Dutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 61 Reply 9, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 1316 times:
A couple of points:
Regarding the DC9s (a favorite topic around here), NW owns almost their entire fleet of the type, thus, they will continue to fly them. NW needs a 100 seat aircraft for its route network, with lots of shorthaul flights with high frequencies and to serve smaller cities in the midwest and deep south. On the short segments that most DC9s fly, their fuel economy is within acceptable levels even if not the most effecient airliner around. A mix of E190s or CRJ900s plus some additional A319s would be required to replace the DC9s (and we are talking about a lot of aircraft).....its not gonna happen until NW is out of bankruptcy and its financial outlook improves. If anything, NW will look to cut its fleet of newer A32X and 757 aircraft in the bankruptcy proceeding to cut costly lease payments.....some aircraft will go as NW reorganizes and those aircraft with higher lease payments will be the first out of the fleet.
Regarding MEM, NW's hub at MEM has always been a difficult issue.....NW inherited the MEM hub as part of the Republic deal - Republic more or less reorganized Southern Airways operations around the hub at MEM (Republic was created out of the merger between North Central and Southern and Hughes Airwest was added later). O&D traffic at MEM is not great, which has always been a problem, and geographically its a bit too far west to efffectively capture pax travelling within busy eastern portion of the US - two big problems. On the other hand, without MEM, NW would be unable to effectively serve the southern US. Over the years, it has been reported that NW was considering closing MEM, whenever it was rumored that NW was considering a merger with another airline most assume that the MEM hub would be closed......just recently, when the US situation was at its worst and many questioned if the airline would survive, there was speculation that NW would grab the US hub at CLT and close MEM. NW has adjusted the frequency and capacity at MEM operation many times over the past years, MEM will probably remain a NW hub but it will not be expanded, if anything, it may be cut back if NW decides to terminate service to some smaller cities.
NASCARAirforce From United States, joined Feb 2005, 1773 posts, RR: 4 Reply 10, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 1208 times:
The DC-9s are helping and hurting NW
Helping- They are fully paid for
Hurting- Gas guzzlers during a time of high fuel costs
As for hubs:
NW needs to stop building up these focus cities like MKE and IND, which are way too close to DTW and MSP. What is the point of MKE and IND being built up? Why can't IND and MSP traffic heading westbound route through MSP and east or southbound route through DTW? NW doing stupid things like making an FNT-LAS route at the same time as Air Tran. Is there really a need for a direct FNT-LAS flight?
Probably nothing more than to kill off Midwest, and to keep the Department of Justice happy now that they have effectively killed off ATA. Northwest has always had a history of effectively using weapons of mass destruction to kill a gnat.
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
Cubsrule From United States, joined May 2004, 13155 posts, RR: 14 Reply 12, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 1123 times:
Quoting AirRyan (Reply 5):
What I would look into would be to replace perhaps 80% of the current DC-9's with a CRJ-900 to maintain the CRJ fleet commonality (rather than go the E-190 route even though that still may be worth it)
You're probably looking (hypothetically) at a big enough subfleet that commonality with the CRJs isn't a big issue, and the E-Jet is a superior a/c.
What I would look into would be to replace perhaps 80% of the current DC-9's with a CRJ-900 to maintain the CRJ fleet commonality (rather than go the E-190 route even though that still may be worth it)
You're probably looking (hypothetically) at a big enough subfleet that commonality with the CRJs isn't a big issue, and the E-Jet is a superior a/c.
I agree - numbers wise E-190/5's would be enough to warrant the seperate fleet and I think I prefer them as well, Embraer has a great website with all the numbers and I think they are the best choice currently available.
HPRamper From United States, joined May 2005, 2086 posts, RR: 8 Reply 14, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 1091 times:
Killing the minihubs at MKE and IND, downsizing MEM to a focus city, and doing away with all non-hub (non-MSP or DTW) flights would be the first idea.
Also, cut down on large aircraft flying intra-hub, maybe substitute them for DC-9s. Keep the DCs on the shorter route - you don't need ETOPS to overfly Lake Michigan do you?
Throw larger and more efficient aircraft into the longer routes on markets that can handle that size capacity while keeping more DC-9s closer to home, so to speak. Schedules will suffer in terms of convenience but I guess when you are in bankruptcy beggars can't be choosers.
Midway7 From United States, joined Aug 2004, 123 posts, RR: 0 Reply 15, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 971 times:
Quoting NASCARAirforce (Reply 10): NW needs to stop building up these focus cities like MKE and IND, which are way too close to DTW and MSP. What is the point of MKE and IND being built up? Why can't IND and MSP traffic heading westbound route through MSP and east or southbound route through DTW? NW doing stupid things like making an FNT-LAS route at the same time as Air Tran. Is there really a need for a direct FNT-LAS flight?
I agree whole-heartedly with this. If the focus is the hub, then stop doing focus cities like IND and MKE and focus on the hubs.
NW has a big ego towards the LCC's, and IND (ATA) and MKE (Midwest Express) are proof of this. It's time to stop this. Instead of TRYING to put your competition out of business, they are GOING to put you out of business.
Indy From United States, joined Jan 2005, 3997 posts, RR: 12 Reply 16, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 927 times:
Quoting NASCARAirforce (Reply 10):
NW needs to stop building up these focus cities like MKE and IND, which are way too close to DTW and MSP. What is the point of MKE and IND being built up? Why can't IND and MSP traffic heading westbound route through MSP and east or southbound route through DTW? NW doing stupid things like making an FNT-LAS route at the same time as Air Tran. Is there really a need for a direct FNT-LAS flight?
Taking plane loads of nonstop passengers and routing them through a hub is a really bad idea. When times are tough the absolute last thing you want to do is increase fuel and labor costs. Back in the day you could get away with wasteful spending like that. Not in the day of numerous low cost carriers. The old ways of running an airline need to be tossed. They simply don't work in todays world. What kind of thinking says "I can take a full plane going from point A to point B where I already don't make much money... Instead of making my small profit I can route them all through point C which will add to my fuel and labor costs and reduce my profit even more."
It is an extremely poor business practice. There is a reason airlines like Southwest continue to make a profit year after year. They don't do dumb things like adding unnecessary expenses to their operation like many airlines. This is why they will continue to be successful and other airliners will continue to fail.
STLGph From United States, joined Oct 2004, 8037 posts, RR: 32 Reply 17, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 938 times:
Quoting N908AW (Thread starter): If they want to compete with AA's ever-growing DFW presence, they need to create more MEM traffic for southern travel.
If they want to compete, then simply offer a better in flight product.
Quoting N908AW (Thread starter): IMO, NW can simplify their fleet by beridding themselves of the DC9 product and simply contracting with two regional affiliates that use the CR7 or another 70 seat product.
That is pretty much the reverse of simplification.
Quoting N908AW (Thread starter): Frequency and maximum aircraft use is the key to getting one's bang for the buck.
Northwest -does- seem to offer frequencies. But I have noticed over the years their schedule seems to be 6a-7pm. Here at STL, Northwest seems to have a steady stream of departures starting at 6am but come 5p-6pmish, it severely slows down and nothing happens except with the last couple of arrivals from the hubs to finish up the day.
However, when it comes to aircraft frequencies, business markets tend to require more frequencies than the more leisure/touristy destinations that get by just fine with one shot a day mainline service.
Quoting Cidflyer (Reply 2): I have often wondered why NW did make the MEM hub larger or more like CLT in size to take advantage of the SE U.S. air traffic. It could have been used like US uses CLT as a Carribbean and Florida gateway.
You've got Delta and US Airways and all the airlines in the Northeast to Florida routes already. Northwest's niche was always providing stronger east-west connections to business points, and just using most of its Florida service as a formality.
Quoting HPRamper (Reply 14): Killing the minihubs at MKE and IND, downsizing MEM to a focus city, and doing away with all non-hub (non-MSP or DTW) flights would be the first idea.
Quoting N908AW (Thread starter): MEM really only gets service to the major cities and to the tiny cities that only have MEM as their pivot point.
Memphis has been right sized by Northwest over the years to fit and tailor it to the needs of the company. Just because Memphis is not gargantuan like the Minneapolis or Detroit operations does not mean that Memphis is failing the company.
Northwest's reasons for bankruptcy have never been reported as "loss of revenue from the Memphis hub."
Eternal darkness we all should dread. It's hard to party when you're dead.
I know that NW owns the majority of their D9S fleet. However they are huge gas guzzlers, parts are scarce on these a/c because they haven't been built for many years now. I now understand why they need to keep flying them for the time being-then own them. Parking them will not help since they need an a/c this size for many of their routes.
Since they are mainly a A32X narrowbody family and they will eventually have to replace all of the D9S what do you guys and gals think of them getting the 318? I think it would be a perfect size to replace their D9S and have commonality with the majority of the their narrow body fleet.
I agree with you too Dutchjet too that the MEM hub has always been a difficult and touchy issue for everyone involved. Though I say hats off to NW for keeping the hub open as when the large majority of mergers take place, the new carrier dismantles hubs of their merge partner rapidly: AA-TW @ STL. If they don't merge, I hope they are able to keep this orginal Republic hub open.
I agree with you too HPRamper. The focus cities need to be shut down they need to focus on the strength in their hub cities. What they did when F9 decide to create LAX as a focus city was ridiculous by starting LAX-DEN service and all this other stuff they did when F9 decided to go into MSP. For goodness sakes how much business would F9 take away from them??
This is probably the strangest thing I've ever quoted . Another reason for NW to operate a focus city like they do is that with so many choices available for travelers today if they don't offer the nonstop service someone else will. If I can get a nonstop flight at the right price I'll certainly pass up a flight with a connection. From a story I saw from NW they competely understand that concept as well. People want nonstop service.
Tornado82 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 21, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 870 times:
Quoting SHUPirate1 (Reply 11): Probably nothing more than to kill off Midwest, and to keep the Department of Justice happy now that they have effectively killed off ATA. Northwest has always had a history of effectively using weapons of mass destruction to kill a gnat.
Unfortunately they've inhaled too many of those biochem things, or those nuclear radiation remnants... and it's become a cancer that's killing themselves too.
Yep. But the ERJ is superior to the CRJ and that didn't stop them from that.
Quoting HPRamper (Reply 14): you don't need ETOPS to overfly Lake Michigan do you?
My Continental Connection B1900 DTW-CLE a few weeks ago had ETOPS. It's part of Continental's plan to get all their twins ETOPS for more European service.
Quoting Midway7 (Reply 15): NW has a big ego towards the LCC's, and IND (ATA) and MKE (Midwest Express) are proof of this. It's time to stop this. Instead of TRYING to put your competition out of business, they are GOING to put you out of business.
Yep. They spread themselves too thin trying to attack everyone at once. Adding FNT-LAS would have been fine, if they weren't also doing stuff like attacking US on IND-PHL, earlier attacking US and Midwest on MKE-PIT, etc. You can't fight ALL the battles ALL the time.
Quoting STLGph (Reply 17): If they want to compete, then simply offer a better in flight product.
It's a shame really, but they're getting worse than US was for awhile. The bankrupcy just began a few days ago... there's no need for it to be as bad as it was for me this weekend on their flights.
LTBEWR From United States, joined Jan 2004, 9292 posts, RR: 7 Reply 22, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 846 times:
Perhaps they should accelerate the retirement of the older, high hours, least fuel efficient DC-9's, DC-10's, 747's, especially as they come due for their next heavy and expensive MX checks. They should add more direct or one-stop services from their current hubs and focus cities. They could make MSY a focus airport (as need increases and the ability to return services improves) especially for service for the midwest and west coast. They could add more international service from their main hubs or their east/west coast focus cities. Maybe some of their 757's could be ETOPS'ed for Euro services from DTW, BOS and other locations. Of course, they can shift more domestic smaller cities services to their partners or subs, using smaller aircraft (>100).
COSPN From Northern Mariana Islands, joined Oct 2001, 1135 posts, RR: 0 Reply 23, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 849 times:
De Hub NRT Fly Direct PEK/SHA/HKG-DTW Drop Service to BKK/SIN TPE other low fare markets, with few Biz PAX fly MNL-HNL-MSP/DTW if out side of non-stop range park 747-200 get a few more A330's save fuel, save fuel, save fuel....
Tornado82 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 24, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 820 times:
Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 22): They could make MSY a focus airport (as need increases and the ability to return services improves)
O&D there post-Katrina will be significantly less than pre-Katrina for probably a few years to come, so, doubtful. Besides, that's a strong WN place, is it necessary to get into that pissing match? That's the one LCC NW hasn't tried to get into major wars with, yet, sticking to just Airtran and Midwest currently.
STLGph From United States, joined Oct 2004, 8037 posts, RR: 32 Reply 25, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 776 times:
Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 21): It's a shame really, but they're getting worse than US was for awhile. The bankrupcy just began a few days ago... there's no need for it to be as bad as it was for me this weekend on their flights.
I'm sure service on Northwest is just absolutely chipper these days. It might even be worse than Delta's service.
Eternal darkness we all should dread. It's hard to party when you're dead.
26 Mandala499: Northwest has always had a history of effectively using weapons of mass destruction to kill a gnat. A couple of maverick 734s with eagle feathers on t
27 AirRyan: Evidently NW isn't interested in either the 737-600 or the A318 because of their poor short range economy and engines being too close to the passenge
28 Gigneil: Suicide. The NRT hub is a huge revenue generator, and BKK and SIN very high yield destinations. NW's 5th freedoms from Japan are the crown jewel of t
29 Iowaman: I highly doubt that is the reason they went to IND in the first place. The reason is/was to kill ATA and try to kill Midwest.
30 NWDC10: Why not just keep the DC-9s and use them with the A319's primarly to "feed" the hubs, build up MEM to compete with AA and use the A320's/757 for longe
31 Indy: Problem with MEM is that you need some good O/D to pay the bills and MEM just doesn't have that to really support its current size let alone anything
32 N908AW: Simplification matters -- ZERO -- in regards to regional carriers. Key example to this is US. They have NINE regional carriers that offer different a
33 Tornado82: Seems like crappy gate utilization at IND. They've got the whole A concourse but do they really need it all? Sunday nights at 5:30-6:30pm which shoul
34 Indy: When I flew in and out in March it was an absolute zoo in there. It was standing room only. Very uncomfortable. They needed the extra gates to cope w
35 Tornado82: They had one parked over in remote parking I saw while taxiing out. Couldn't get a good look at it (wrong side of plane) but it was mainline, looked A
36 Iowaman: It will be interesting to see what happens, I see DEN is gone from the scheldues Oct. 1st, but you also get PHX back Dec. 15th (Seasonal). Hopefully
37 Centrair: NW needs to just improve their product. They need to not only compete with domestic carriers but with International carriers as well. They need to use
38 Apodino: Unrelated to the current topic but how is an airplane that only provides about thirteen inches across of footroom superior to an airplane that provid
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. Another reason for NW to operate a focus city like they do is that with so many choices available for travelers today if they don't offer the nonstop service someone else will. If I can get a nonstop flight at the right price I'll certainly pass up a flight with a connection. From a story I saw from NW they competely understand that concept as well. People want nonstop service.
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