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Rita Threatening WN And CO  
User currently offlineSidishus From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 519 posts, RR: 4
Posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4634 times:

IF...and at this point (00z 20 Sept) that's a BIG IF...Rita landfalling just to the southwest of the Houston metro area is bad news for HOU in particular and IAH as well.
None of that region has experienced a major hurricane in 23 years. People won't get to work and hub ops (call it whatever you wish but WN hubs in HOU) will be next to impossible with widespread power and phone outages.
A couple of days of IAH shutdown could potentially push CO to near bankruptcy and WN-on top of the MSY loss-will have a tough time maintaining profitability for the quarter. (IMHO)


the truth: first it is ridiculed second it is violently opposed finally it is accepted as self-evident
50 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineOPNLguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4563 times:

Yesterday, the track was headed straight at BRO...

Today, it's GLS...

Tomorrow, who knows? BPT? LCH? God forbid, MSY?

No doubt, oil production will be disrupted as Gulf rigs are evacuated, and the effect gets worse if refineries, etc., in the HOU-GLS-BPT-LCH area are affected.

I remember that seemingly "harmless" weather system that dumped all that rain that flooded out the Med Center some years back....

Let's wait and see what happens...


User currently offlineFlyinround731 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 241 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4542 times:

I'll be getting out of Dodge if Rita makes that northward turn, reports say is could be a Cat. 3 at the least. Last night, the weatherman was all "doom and gloom" about it possibly being Cat. 5 when striking the Houston metro area. Though Houston is about 50 feet above sea level compared to NOLA which has parts below sea level, flooding will still be bad. I was born after Alicia hit, so I've never experienced a direct hit by a hurricane, and I don't want to. Dallas, Houston may hate you very much, but when a major storm comes to town, we'll still hate you and just go up I-35 to OKC instead.  Smile

If Rita comes this way, where do you think CO and WN will fly their equipment out to?
-Joe


User currently offlineRedngold From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 6907 posts, RR: 45
Reply 3, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 4456 times:

I'm just guessing here, but I would think:

CO evacuates to MEM (Northwest partner) and ATL (if Delta has any room)

WN evacuates to DAL (whatever space is left) and PHX (their second largest focus city)



Up, up and away!
User currently offlineSidishus From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 519 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 4406 times:

Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 1):
Yesterday, the track was headed straight at BRO...

Today, it's GLS...

Tomorrow, who knows? BPT? LCH? God forbid, MSY?

The model data is beginning to coalesce onto the upper Texas coast...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html

As a long term hurricane veteran -starting with Donna in 1960 ,and including such notables as Camille (PNS), Agnes (was in Hershey PA for that one), Andrew (New Iberia on a seismic ship), Frederick (at sea on a destroyer), Erin, Opal, Ivan, Katrina- I understand about the uncertainties.
WN and CO had best be thinking how the worst case would impact them...Now!. To do otherwise is...well...crazy.

Best sites to follow are the Navy's maps here (click into the tropical storms on the left hand menu). This gives the best represnetaion of the extent of the wind radii:
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.html

And of course the source of the data from the TPC. Make it a point to READ!!! the discussions and not just look at the graphics!!!!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?

At this juncture I pretty much stop watching the over hype you see on TV (go ahead and ding me about Bastardi Tornado82, but I don't view him nearly as polyannish as you do).



the truth: first it is ridiculed second it is violently opposed finally it is accepted as self-evident
User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6712 posts, RR: 32
Reply 5, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 4340 times:

Quoting Sidishus (Thread starter):
and WN-on top of the MSY loss-will have a tough time maintaining profitability for the quarter. (IMHO)

Someone is really, really, really obsessed, methinks.

Quoting Sidishus (Thread starter):
None of that region has experienced a major hurricane in 23 years.

Actually, 22 years (and I rode Alicia out in Galveston). But the flooding from Tropical Storm Allison was severe enough to cause serious disruptions at IAH (and for Allison to have the unique distinction of being the only tropical storm to have its name retired).

In any case, while Houston would certainly suffer significant wind damage and street flooding as the result of a Category 4 or 5 storm coming ashore near between High Island and Freeport, the level of devastation is unlikely to be anything like what Katrina brought upon New Orleans, given Houston's elevation 50 feet above sea level. I do pray for my family and friends in Galveston.


User currently offlineSidishus From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 519 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 4278 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 5):
Quoting Sidishus (Thread starter):
and WN-on top of the MSY loss-will have a tough time maintaining profitability for the quarter. (IMHO)

Someone is really, really, really obsessed, methinks.

As before...we'll see when the quarterly earnings are announced

While Alicia put whuppin on the area, Rita promises to be a much larger storm and of the same intensity of an Ivan...
That ain't a pretty picture.



the truth: first it is ridiculed second it is violently opposed finally it is accepted as self-evident
User currently offlineLt-AWACS From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 4236 times:

I did Alicia in Houston back in 83 and it sucked. I only hope this veers away from Houston. YOu thought gas got expensive after New Orleans got hit, just wait and see what happens when the "Energy Capital of the World" gets hit  Sad

TS Allison sucked also. The worst Tropical storm in US history.

As for the airlines, I actually think WN would be hurt a bit more because if the storm hits Texas other WN cities will also be affected with heavy rain. I think CO could restart IAH quickly and just cut the other spoke flights that are affected.

Ciao, and Hook 'em Horns,
Capt-AWACS, A Houston Tradition Since 1975


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6712 posts, RR: 32
Reply 8, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 4193 times:

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 6):
While Alicia put whuppin on the area, Rita promises to be a much larger storm and of the same intensity of an Ivan...

Really now? And the source of your forecasts of wind intensity would be? NHC discussions have Rita predicted to be a Category 3 (like Alicia) at landfall -- and the models are now moving the storm further southwest along the coast.

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 6):
As before...we'll see when the quarterly earnings are announced

The effect on Q3 earnings from 6-7 days at the end of the quarter affecting perhaps at most 10% of daily flights is likely to be small in the grand scheme of things -- especially given how strong their traffic was for July and August. My observation is that you are somehow obsessed with whether or not Southwest will be profitable.


User currently offlineMeteorologist From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 137 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 4162 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
Really now? And the source of your forecasts of wind intensity would be? NHC discussions have Rita predicted to be a Category 3 (like Alicia) at landfall -- and the models are now moving the storm further southwest along the coast.

Being a governmental weather "insider," you should note that NHC's intensity forecasts have egregious errors regularly. Intensity in both the wind field and depth of the surface pressure are horribly difficult to forecast with any reliability or accuracy with these storms. At the moment from the 00z guidance, the objective aids are spread anywhere from just north of Brownsville to just west of New Orleans...it'll be quite a qhile before any certainty in the track is figured out, let alone any accurate portrayal of the intensity can be estimated.


User currently offlineSidishus From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 519 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 4150 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
While Alicia put whuppin on the area, Rita promises to be a much larger storm and of the same intensity of an Ivan...

Really now? And the source of your forecasts of wind intensity would be? NHC discussions have Rita predicted to be a Category 3 (like Alicia) at landfall -- and the models are now moving the storm further southwest along the coast.

The forecasted wind radii (did you go into the navy's plot?) indicates this will be a very large storm.
Good late breaking news!! The intensity forecast has diminished...just a little.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...at3+shtml/025048.shtml?chart?large
However, it must be noted the folks at TPC will be the first to admit the skill at forecating intensity is less than they would like. So its' still a bit of a crapshoot this far out in time. Even so, this is gonna be a big, powerful, storm.

And let's get the facts straight about what intensity Ivan was at landfall...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml?
Although Ivan was weakening as it made its first U.S. landfall, it is estimated to have been a category 3 hurricane when it reached the Alabama coast.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
My observation is that you are somehow obsessed with whether or not Southwest will be profitable.

Not really. It would be a good thing for some friends of mine if I'm wrong.
How come you cannot tolerate hearing about te negatives that are impacting WN?You Scott, seem to be the obsessed one.



the truth: first it is ridiculed second it is violently opposed finally it is accepted as self-evident
User currently offlineMeteorologist From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 137 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 4133 times:

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 10):
However, it must be noted the folks at TPC will be the first to admit the skill at forecating intensity is less than they would like. So its' still a bit of a crapshoot this far out in time. Even so, this is gonna be a big, powerful, storm.

I think it matters more which of the hurricane forecasters is on duty than anything. Each of them will probably only forecast a certain intensity that far out, and it really only matters who amongst them it is and their personal biases. If you have access, you should listen to the verbal discussion between TPC and HPC on the Hurricane Conference line at 4 AM ET. It'll be very enlightening.


User currently offlineMeteorologist From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 137 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 4130 times:

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 10):
However, it must be noted the folks at TPC will be the first to admit the skill at forecating intensity is less than they would like. So its' still a bit of a crapshoot this far out in time. Even so, this is gonna be a big, powerful, storm.

I think it matters more which of the hurricane forecasters is on duty than anything. Each of them will probably only forecast a certain intensity that far out, and it really only matters who amongst them it is and their personal biases. If you have access, you should listen to the verbal discussion between TPC and HPC on the Hurricane Conference line at 4 AM ET. It'll be very enlightening.


User currently offlineSidishus From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 519 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 4112 times:

Quoting Meteorologist (Reply 12):
If you have access, you should listen to the verbal discussion between TPC and HPC on the Hurricane Conference line at 4 AM ET. It'll be very enlightening.

I can't hang with you guys cloaked in your CAPEs behind that Theta-e ridge
 Wink



the truth: first it is ridiculed second it is violently opposed finally it is accepted as self-evident
User currently offlineMeteorologist From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 137 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 4079 times:

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 13):

Oh they won't be talking CAPE or Theta-E, haha. They'll probably be talking about the depth of the upper low in the west and its effects on the high near the Gulf Coast. Those are the two predominate factors that will determine where this bad girl goes.


User currently offlineSidishus From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 519 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 4059 times:

Quoting Meteorologist (Reply 14):
Oh they won't be talking CAPE or Theta-E, haha

So, do you think this will worst of both worlds? High winds and high QPF?



the truth: first it is ridiculed second it is violently opposed finally it is accepted as self-evident
User currently offlineOPNLguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4046 times:

C'mon guys, let's not get into a pissing match over who's got the biggest barometer....  Wink

User currently offlineMeteorologist From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 137 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4014 times:

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 15):

I would say that's like...however where it will occur is something I don't have a great handle on at the moment.


User currently offlineAggieflyboi04 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 208 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 3992 times:

I just looked at the latest projected track from the National Hurricane center, and it has it coming on shore between Galveston and Freeport on Saturday as a Catagory3 storm.

User currently offlineMeteorologist From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 137 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 3956 times:

Quoting Aggieflyboi04 (Reply 18):
I just looked at the latest projected track from the National Hurricane center, and it has it coming on shore between Galveston and Freeport on Saturday as a Catagory3 storm.

Looks like the newest guidance is coming in somewhere near CRP.


User currently offlineAggieflyboi04 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 208 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 3912 times:

Quoting Meteorologist (Reply 19):
Looks like the newest guidance is coming in somewhere near CRP.

Where are you seeing that, Hurricane center is saying between Galveston and Freeport as of 11pm est advisory


User currently offlineLTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13040 posts, RR: 12
Reply 21, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3879 times:

The big concern I have is the potential of Rita to be a 'super soaker', dumping huge amounts of rain in LA and TX, causing serious flooding in the areas where many evacuees from Katrina have gone to. This could also undo some of the recovery from Katrina, and at worse, damage more already weaked levies, reflooding the region.
On a broader scale, Rita, on top of Katrina in a critical part of the USA as to shipping and oil sources, transportation and processing, will be to badly affect all airlines, not just WN, CO. Another spike in fuel costs as well as a wide range of economic problems including a potential recession and increased inflation could cause a sharp decline in demand for airflights.
Let's hope and pray Rita weakens or at worst, goes into a less populated area.


User currently offlineDrerx7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5162 posts, RR: 8
Reply 22, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3819 times:

I'm not getting worried until it passes the Yucatan--then the hurricane models will be somewhat accurate.


Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
User currently offlineTornado82 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3796 times:

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 4):
(go ahead and ding me about Bastardi Tornado82, but I don't view him nearly as polyannish as you do).

Stick with NHC, they did damn well with Katrina (they're not responsible for evacuations and levee breaks), and remember that Bastardi sent Ophelia to a landfall over just about every major population area of the SE US as a scare tactic while sometimes being over a thousand miles off of the NHC track... meanwhile NHC was pretty much spot on once Ophelia actually began to move towards the Carolinas.

Quoting Lt-AWACS (Reply 7):
I think CO could restart IAH quickly and just cut the other spoke flights that are affected.

Yeah, unlike MSY, and unlike New Orleans as a whole... IAH is far enough above sea level that even with "catastrophic flooding" it'll just drain its way down to sea on its own within a reasonable (couple days total) timeframe. New Orleans, by theory, would remain a swampy lake until the end of time if it wasn't for human and mechanical intervention. Remember, the winds and rains didn't get New Orleans... it was the levee breaks.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
Really now? And the source of your forecasts of wind intensity would be? NHC discussions have Rita predicted to be a Category 3 (like Alicia) at landfall

Agreed

Quoting Meteorologist (Reply 9):
Being a governmental weather "insider," you should note that NHC's intensity forecasts have egregious errors regularly.

Likewise, agreed! However, so far NHC has been over-forecasting Rita. Note that little Rita is still a TS right now. NHC has been trying its hardest to make it a hurricane but just can't yet. In the discussions right now they are talking about a lack of explosive development and whatnot so far. Structurally, the storm isn't the most "healthy" tropical storm I've ever seen. Poor outflow so far on the north and south. No well defined eyewall yet on radar, and dry air intrusions still getting sucked into the storm. It's also close enough to the terrain of Cuba to probably get slightly affected by that as well from the south. There's no doubt it'll strengthen over the Gulf, but to say Cat 5 as was mentioned up above is just a scare tactic at this point. Even the latest SHIPS model guidance keeps this one below Cat 3 across the Gulf now.

Quoting Meteorologist (Reply 12):
I think it matters more which of the hurricane forecasters is on duty than anything.

Definitely happens at SPC as well. The human fudge factor, happens everywhere in life... and is magnified at SPC/NHC because they really don't have anyone to play off of except themselves. Local NWS FO's have the neighboring offices to discuss with which tends to moderate everyone's fudge factor. NHC is the big time show basically.

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 13):
I can't hang with you guys cloaked in your CAPEs behind that Theta-e ridge



Quoting Meteorologist (Reply 14):
Oh they won't be talking CAPE or Theta-E, haha. They'll probably be talking about the depth of the upper low in the west and its effects on the high near the Gulf Coast.

Lol, Cloaked in CAPEs, I like it, but like Meteorologist said they won't be needing CAPE for a tropical event. The whole issue will where Rita makes its NE turn in the Gulf, and Meteorologist already covered that.

For WN/CO, as long as they're smart enough to get the planes out in time, the effects will only last as long as the storm is effecting the terminals. Even if this thing went against all laws of meteorology and somehow made it to Cat 5, the effects to Houston would be much less severe than MSY's were because quite simply you can rebuild from wind damage easier than you can drain a new lake the size of a major metropolitan area and then rebuild from that. Definitely not enough to drive CO into bankrupcy as someone mentioned.


User currently offlineDrerx7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5162 posts, RR: 8
Reply 24, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 3767 times:

The effects would be less traumatic than a blizzard at EWR for CO. IAH is so far north it may as well be on the southside of Dallas  silly . I stay on Braes Bayou, during Allison the water came up to the end of my driveway, so I'm slightly alarmed about wind damage. I will be gasin' up the cars just in case though.


Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
25 Tornado82 : Honestly, a good analogy. Some of the more memorable recent blizzards (Jan '05, Presidents day '02) had effects on BOS, PHL, EWR, etc. that lasted fo
26 CLE757 : I would think they would sent most aircraft to CLE and EWR, some to outstations.
27 777gk : Skyteam partners would have no bearing on Continental weather-related diversions. We have stations all over the Southeast and are well-equipped to spr
28 Boeing7E7 : If it hit's MSY it's time for the US to face a bit of reality and take a hint.
29 Texan : Latest update is that the majority of the models show an almost direct hit on Houston, then turning even more northerly with 4 models showing it hitt
30 InTheSky74 : If a storm like this hit Houston, and it caused major damage to the area, this could be the nail in the coffin for Continental. Not for good, but an e
31 Tornado82 : Once again... New Orleans fared relatively fine through the storm's wind/rain... with no more damage than any other area experiencing a landfalling h
32 Thomasphoto60 : And what might that be? Thomas
33 Post contains links Drerx7 : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap..._at3+shtml/174406.shtml?5day?large Houston is not a direct hit any longer nor is Galveston. However, its still
34 Post contains images Tornado82 : Drerx7: Starting to feel like this? because I sure am.
35 Post contains images Drerx7 : BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA ---thats exactly how I feel
36 ScottB : Agreed 100% unless a tornado hit one of the terminals at IAH or HOU, I suppose. In any case, the current predictions have Rita headed towards Port La
37 OPNLguy : What will probably happen (assuming a landfall Saturday somewhere GLS-VCT) is that HOU/IAH will most likely see crosswinds go out of limits sometime
38 Tornado82 : OPNLguy, from your respected position on here as a dispatcher where you would obviously be dealing first hand with the effects of operational disrupt
39 Boeing7E7 : Spend a few hundred billion on other things.
40 OPNLguy : It's possible that it could be. I never can remember the name of that seemingly "minor" tropical system a few years back (that dropped so much rain o
41 Drerx7 : Rita is still being forcasted as making landfall as a 3 and according to the NHC it will make landfall closer to Port Lavaca--not Galveston. That stor
42 TransIsland : Last nihgt, when Rita was just a tropical storm, she went over Andros Island in the Bahamas. Haven't heard any reports from the island yet. Nassau got
43 Tornado82 : The difference with Allison was that she practically stalled over Houston (somewhat like Ophelia did last week) and that rain was able to repeatedly f
44 CO757bos2iah : It is far north. At least 76 miles from the coast.Just off the top of my head,it's 56miles from Freeport ( somewhat in the area of galveston,Brazoria
45 Post contains links Redngold : I read something on a http://www.wunderground.com blog about a wind reading of 65 mph on Andros Island yesterday... I can't find it now... It was eit
46 Tornado82 : 65 is relatively nothing. Any coastal area sees 65mph time and time again... nothing to worry about.
47 ScottB : Well, that depends on where you're talking about the coast. La Porte to IAH is probably only 30 miles as the crow flies, and it's 57 straight-line mi
48 Meteorologist : Just a quick note on this...and again I say listen to the conference calls at 02z, 05z, 08z, 11z, 14z, 17z, 20z for real in depth information, but HP
49 Aggieflyboi04 : I spent the day on campus in the metorolgy department with a frined that is a grad student that studies Hurricanes. He is showing a Cat 4 direct hit o
50 Meteorologist : I'd pay more attention to the white cone at this point than the particular line track on the NHC's page. The potential errors are still huge given th
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