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Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320  
User currently offlineDavid31998 From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 79 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 11 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 4587 times:

Considering Boeing's recent estimate of future demand for aircraft in China, I thought this is a good time to discuss China's interest in producing planes that will compete directly against the 737 and 320. I regularly work in China and I am aware that the Chinese are actively discussing the possibility of getting into this market. Of course, this effort would be at the government's initiative and my sources are from the government controlled press. So my questions (comments) are:

1. Can a third competitor be successful in the 737-320 market?

2. There is some wishful thinking by the Chinese that B and A will give up this market (as they have done for smaller planes) and focus on more expensive models. Seems to me that high sales and profitability of the 737 and 320 preclude this idea.

3. Does this discussion by the Chinese push B and A to more quickly develop new models for this market.

I am new to this forum and I hope that I am not dealing with a old topic.
David

34 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 11 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 4517 times:

Interesting....we DO know that they can make MD80s....I always thought they should buy up the tooling and go into business with a nice type certificate already printed up....hell, I still got my old DAC inspection stamp somewhere, i'd do that in a heartbeat. Some of my buddies worked at SAIC during the MD80 coproduction program...there was a nice feature in Life magazine called Yanks in China back around 1978 that had a friend of mine on the cover...

They've also got a pretty robust indigenous aircraft and engine industry largely based on Russ designs. Their turboprops look pretty sturdy...the Xian MA60 and the Harbin Y13 call em F27 and Twin Otter if you like....Global Security says they're already working on RJ type project.

They just bought 38 new IL76 transports from the Russians for the military-and got a helluva deal on them too.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/hamc.htm

Bank on it...it's not a question of IF, but WHEN, and they'll kick butt when they decide it's time.


User currently offlineAstral From Canada, joined Mar 2004, 214 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (8 years 11 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 4454 times:

What China is looking into is the 100-120 seats aircraft market. The B717 is out of production, while the CRJ and ERJ are not really up to that seating size and with the right range. Although Boeing can restart B717, but it is old technology and is too large for most market segments.
The Chinese is developing its ARJ21, and it is very possible for it to grow in size and range to meet airlines demands.
The first flight of the ARJ21 should be mid-2006, and once that is in production, then a growth version can be devloped. So far there is no plan for the Chinese to develope any large size (minimum B737 size/weight) civil aircraft.


User currently offlineBR076 From Netherlands, joined May 2005, 1086 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (8 years 11 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 4434 times:

Let's just hope that they design their planes better than their cars.

Chinese SUV Gets Zero In Euro Ncap Crash Test (by Cornish Sep 19 2005 in Non Aviation)



ú
User currently offlineDougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (8 years 11 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 4409 times:

Yikes.....it'll take em a few years to figure that out....the first Hyundais for sale here (the Excel) did not do well in crash tests and engine life was limited.

I'm surprised that they're selling them in the EU....I do not think their vehicles are even close to Cali or 49 state compliant over on the emission side.


User currently onlineTheSonntag From Germany, joined Jun 2005, 3562 posts, RR: 29
Reply 5, posted (8 years 11 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 4388 times:

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 4):

I'm surprised that they're selling them in the EU....I do not think their vehicles are even close to Cali or 49 state compliant over on the emission side.

The crash result has lead to many rised doubts on why this driving coffin is allowed to be sold in Europe. Its even worse than my VW Bug from 1983.

The reason is pretty easy: It weighs 2510 kgs, crash tests are only mandatory for a weight up to 2500 kgs. I think this rule will not last.

About the Chinese, it will only be a matter of time. They already presented an airplane that looks like a MD 80 copy. In 30 years they will have great designs, and if we continue to be so stupid to give the Chinese our know-how, this will even go faster.

Michael


User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12460 posts, RR: 46
Reply 6, posted (8 years 11 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 4376 times:
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The size of the market in the 120-200 seater range is big enough to support three manufacturers. Can the Chinese get in to this market? Certainly, they'd have a pretty large home market at a minimum. Can they produce something that the rest of the World wants to buy? That's the big question.

I can certainly see Embraer or Bombardier linking up with the Chinese as a way to break in to the larger plane markets. Would Airbus or Boeing see the need to protect their market share by linking up with the Chinese in a risk-sharing venture? I'm not so sure about that. It's one thing to subcontract the 787 wings to Japan, but would Congress allow a significant transfer of advanced technology to China for a 737 replacement?

If Airbus and Boeing both launch their single-aisle replacements in the next five years, it's difficult to see a new player breaking in for this generation, they may have to wait 20-25 years for the next wave.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineDougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (8 years 11 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 4136 times:

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 5):
They already presented an airplane that looks like a MD 80 copy.

It was not a copy. It was an MD80 built under license at SAIC in Shanghai with the full cooperation of McDonnell Douglas.

They DID, however, try to reverse engineer a 707 and that was a flop although as an exercise in skill building it mighta been ok. That was known as the Y10 Shanghai.


User currently offlineFlybyguy From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 1801 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (8 years 11 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 4098 times:

I say let the Chinese fly their junk (no pun intended) It's one thing building western aircraft up to western standards, but it's a totally different thing when you have them building their own planes to their own standards. I would fathom that the Chinese ARJ would be banned from flying in or over any other country that cares for the welfare of it's citizens because those Chinese jets will be just like their rubbish Landwind cars, built cheaply with no regard whatever for safety.


"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller
User currently offlinePPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8956 posts, RR: 40
Reply 9, posted (8 years 11 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 4053 times:

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 6):
I can certainly see Embraer or Bombardier linking up with the Chinese as a way to break in to the larger plane markets.

Embraer is already in China:



Cheers



"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
User currently offlineMarshalN From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2005, 1521 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (8 years 11 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 4009 times:

Quoting Flybyguy (Reply 8):
I say let the Chinese fly their junk (no pun intended) It's one thing building western aircraft up to western standards, but it's a totally different thing when you have them building their own planes to their own standards. I would fathom that the Chinese ARJ would be banned from flying in or over any other country that cares for the welfare of it's citizens because those Chinese jets will be just like their rubbish Landwind cars, built cheaply with no regard whatever for safety.

I think that's what people said about Japanese cars 30 years ago, small, crappy, flimsy, low powered, you name it.

Look what happened.


User currently offlineMrocktor From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1668 posts, RR: 50
Reply 11, posted (8 years 11 months 5 days ago) and read 3953 times:

I'm sure it can be done. Here is hoping we do it before the Chinese...

mrocktor


User currently onlineTheSonntag From Germany, joined Jun 2005, 3562 posts, RR: 29
Reply 12, posted (8 years 11 months 5 days ago) and read 3914 times:

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 7):

It was not a copy. It was an MD80 built under license at SAIC in Shanghai with the full cooperation of McDonnell Douglas.


Thats not what I meant. China is planning a new regional jet which has resemblance to the MD80, I don't know the name, though.

Michael


User currently offlineSWISSER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 11 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 3890 times:

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 12):
Thats not what I meant. China is planning a new regional jet which has resemblance to the MD80, I don't know the name, though.

Michael

I' v seen the stand on Le Bourget of the makers, behind GE, but I dont recall the name either, they did'nt recieve any orders on the airshow though.


User currently offlineFlight152 From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 3393 posts, RR: 6
Reply 14, posted (8 years 11 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 3828 times:

the first Hyundais for sale here (the Excel) did not do well in crash tests and engine life was limited.

Except Hyundai is a Korean brand..


User currently offlineHKGKaiTak From Australia, joined Jun 2005, 1050 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 years 11 months 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 3754 times:

Well I hope the Chinese will build a good passenger airliner to rival what the western world has done ... it's only a matter of time. What's the bet they'll not only get it right first time but be able to offer a great aircraft at lower costs than either A or B?

I'm sure they'd find a ready market for them in China and the Indian subcontinent for starters.



4 Engines 4 LongHaul
User currently offlineDougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (8 years 11 months 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 3747 times:

Quoting Flight152 (Reply 14):
Except Hyundai is a Korean brand..

I knew that


User currently offlineDavid31998 From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 79 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 years 11 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 3591 times:

The quality of Chinese products is a big problem. Many Chinese companies have a business model of immediate profits without regard to quality and customer satisfaction. So they have big problems in global competition. I would never buy electronics, appliances, or a car from a Chinese company.

But getting back to the point, can China within the next 20 years be a direct competitor with B and A? They very much want to step into this position. I have read recent reports from senior aviation government officials that they think they have an opening now. But if they wait they will have a more difficult time getting into the larger market because of new models or replacements for the 737 (that will likely use technology from the 787) and the 320.


User currently offlineSupa7e7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (8 years 11 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 3557 times:

Big jets are one of the few things China can't (yet) make for itself. It's their leading non-commodity import. So of course it is item #1 along with automobiles on their industrial radar.

To say nothing of military equipment.

Quoting David31998 (Reply 17):
I would never buy electronics, appliances, ... from a Chinese company.

WTF are you saying..? Almost everything Sony makes for example is made in China. Appliances... ever heard of Maytag? That's a Chinese company now. Even you yourself may be an employee of a Chinese company in the future. Then will you will be insulting yourself. Much as Chrysler workers are employees of a German company...


User currently offlineTPASXM787 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1730 posts, RR: 19
Reply 19, posted (8 years 11 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 3534 times:

Quoting Supa7e7 (Reply 18):
Appliances... ever heard of Maytag? That's a Chinese company now.

IIRC niether Maytag nor Unocal was sold. The boards would not approve it. I can source it if need be.



This is the Last Stop.
User currently offlineFlyingexpat From Hong Kong, joined Aug 2005, 17 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (8 years 11 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3488 times:

While I do believe maytag is not chinese owned, you will be EXTREMELY hard pressed to buy electronics without it at least being assembled in China. While I do not have any experience in a/c manufacturing facilities in China, I have seen multiple vehicle production lines and other misc. facilities in China. The quality level is constantly being improved and in many cases are cleaner and much more efficient than US/ Mexican based facilities. My bet is that it won't happen fast, but China will play a large role in a/c production in the future. It is simply too large of a market to neglect in the long run.

User currently offlineDavid31998 From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 79 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (8 years 11 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 3448 times:

I did not say I would not buy products made in China (although I try to avoid doing so). I said I would not buy products made by a Chinese company.

User currently offlineGlareskin From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 1304 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (8 years 11 months 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 3390 times:

Quoting David31998 (Thread starter):
3. Does this discussion by the Chinese push B and A to more quickly develop new models for this market.

Interesting that you ask this question. This makes me think of a new question: is this going to cause an a&b vs c war on this forum? Airbus and Boeing fans united against the new world... Xenophobics stand together in tough times  Big grin



There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
User currently offlineDougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (8 years 11 months 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 3356 times:

Quoting TPASXM787 (Reply 19):
Quoting Supa7e7 (Reply 18):
Appliances... ever heard of Maytag? That's a Chinese company now.

IIRC niether Maytag nor Unocal was sold. The boards would not approve it. I can source it if need be.

Supa7E7, you got this one wrong...Maytag was sold, but it was sold subject to federal approval to Whirpool, a domestic company. The Haier group, a Chinese company, made an offer but Whirlpool's was better.

Maytag HQ is about 30 miles from here.


User currently offlinePavlovsDog From Norway, joined Sep 2005, 657 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (8 years 11 months 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 3353 times:

I wouldn't be surprised to see China getting in on the action on the Russian MS-21 project which sounds very promising. The two countries seem quite chummy as of late.

25 HAWK21M : Who would buy the chinese jets,apart from China. Unless the product proves itself with Performance & after sales. What news on the RRJ. regds MEL
26 Aleksandar : Well, for me it seems that the question is not whether Chinese can make some kind of 100-120 seat airliner, but whether Chinese airlines would be pati
27 N328KF : The big problem here is that this aircraft will be seeing EIS about the time that Airbus and Boeing are conducting their sales campaigns for their A32
28 David31998 : Of course, the Chinese are aware that 737/320 replacements are coming. They very much want to enter this market within the next 20 years, but recogniz
29 Ikramerica : I will bet any amount of money they won't "get it right the first time" as I've yet to buy anything from China that was "right the first time."
30 Mrocktor : They are going to learn from the ARJ-21, but I agree that it will not be enough to develop a viable 737/A32X competitor for the global market (Russia
31 Post contains links Dougloid : That's a misinformed view. The "not getting it right the first time" may be when they tried to reverse engineer the 707...but they did build a batch
32 Post contains links David31998 : The Chinese government recently announced orders from Chinese airlines for the ARJ-21: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-09/22/content_3528472.ht
33 Dougloid : Tell me true....what's public health have to do with quality control of manufactured products? I mean, maybe I'm a little misguided but I don't see a
34 David31998 : The point is that standard operating procedure in China is to cover up anything that can be considered bad news. Government officials, business emplo
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