DeltaGuy767 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 633 posts, RR: 2 Posted (7 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3565 times:
Hello All,
I was just thinking when DL exits BK and reorganizes free of it's 762's 737-200's and 300's what will they do next. I'm thinking about 10 years from now when the Mad Dogs will be quite old and they will have to go along with the older 757's. What will DL buy to replace these aircraft? I know that DL has orders and options for 737-800's and 777-200's buy can we see DL buying the 787 in the future to compensate for the gap in their fleet? Also what will other airlines in the US that are in trouble now do with their fleets? NW will have to get rid of those 9's and 10's soon and UA will probably get rid of the older 737's along with CO who has already ordered some 787's. What are your thoughts?
Fewsolarge From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 409 posts, RR: 0 Reply 1, posted (7 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3474 times:
Delta's simplified fleet plan:
777 (expect these to increase, perhaps adding -300 or LR)
764
763 (expect these to be replaced with 787s)
757 (eventual replacement with 737NGs)
737NG (maybe the -700 and -900 will merit consideration)
MD88/90 (phase-out announced, but this will take time)
762 (gone by end of 2005)
732 (identified for near term phase-out, details unclear)
733 "
737G "
Expect some solution for 70-100 seat aircraft
All of this, of course, assumes a successful exit from bankruptcy. Other factors that cannot be anticipated, but which could possibly play out:
Merger with a carrier operating a large number of Airbuses;
Nullification of the 20-year deal with Boeing and a blockbuster order with Airbus.
DLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3529 posts, RR: 9 Reply 2, posted (7 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3462 times:
Here's my take
DL Mainline long term fleet if they survive as an independent entity:
737-800
737-900 (for the lower demand and shorter route of the 757 retirees)
787s of 2 or even 3 sizes (One size to replace the upper demand end of the 757, one size to replace the 767, and maybe the laegest to replace the 777)
777 (even these may be retired in favor of the largest 787 version)
ERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6626 posts, RR: 19 Reply 3, posted (7 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 3442 times:
Here's my take (just so I dont' get left out)...
787-8 Ultra Long haul international
787-9 Long haul international
777-2 Short haul international
757-2 (Song) Transcon domesticate
737-8 Medium hall domesticate
E90AR Medium hall domesticate
E70AR Short hall domesticate
CRJ-2 Small to Mid size Point-2-Point or point-to-hub
7E72004 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3586 posts, RR: 1 Reply 4, posted (7 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 3292 times:
Here is my take:
737-800 (domestic flights)
737-900 (long haul domestic flights)
787 (international flights)
777 (international flights)
E170 (smaller to medium flights-US)
Canadair rj (smaller to medium flights-US)
cheers
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
TinPusher007 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 963 posts, RR: 2 Reply 5, posted (7 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 3156 times:
Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 3): Here's my take (just so I dont' get left out)...
787-8 Ultra Long haul international
787-9 Long haul international
777-2 Short haul international
757-2 (Song) Transcon domesticate
737-8 Medium hall domesticate
E90AR Medium hall domesticate
E70AR Short hall domesticate
CRJ-2 Small to Mid size Point-2-Point or point-to-hub
I really can't see DL holding on to 8 772 ER's which have range in excess of 7,000NM for "short haul" int'l flights. I think once DL gets their hands on the 787 they will do away with their 777's altogther. The 787 is a much better fit for DL's network and would be a much more efficient aircraft for them than the 777. Sad but true, Im afraid.
"Flying isn't inherently dangerous...but very unforgiving of carelessness, incapacity or neglect."
ERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6626 posts, RR: 19 Reply 6, posted (7 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 3010 times:
Quoting TinPusher007 (Reply 5): I really can't see DL holding on to 8 772 ER's which have range in excess of 7,000NM for "short haul" int'l flights. I think once DL gets their hands on the 787 they will do away with their 777's altogther. The 787 is a much better fit for DL's network and would be a much more efficient aircraft for them than the 777. Sad but true, Im afraid.
interesting. I could see just the opposite.. I could see DL holding on to their 777 flights for use in Western Europe and South America.. I could see them ordering a few 787 (perhaps 4 8-version and 4-5 9-version) for their much longer destinations (India, China, Japan, Australia). I think much like the MD88, the 777 and 757 will be a staple of the fleet..
DeltaWings From Switzerland, joined Aug 2004, 1289 posts, RR: 19 Reply 9, posted (7 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 2762 times:
sorry, but why should DL retire the 777? The 787 is not big enough to replace the 777 (and nothing is shure yeet about the 787-10!). I can see DL in the future definetly ordering the 787 though, both -8 and -9 to suppliment the 763/4 fleet and eventually to replace of course. The 783 may also be considered. I can see the 789 opening new routes fro DL, that have been out of reach of the 767, but which couldnt suppliment a 777 though.
More 737s (-800 and 900ER) will replace the Mad Dogs and 757s. It will be most logical to have a 737/777/787 fleet. Plus, having the 777 in the fleet will give them a better option to get the 773 if they would ever need a bigger a/c.
Homer: Marge, it takes two to lie. One to lie and one to listen.
DAirbus From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 587 posts, RR: 2 Reply 10, posted (7 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 2749 times:
Delta's MD88's are between 12-18 years old with an average age of 15.3 years. I don't expect them to be replaced for another 5 years but It is something they need to start planning for now.
"I love mankind. It's people I can't stand." - Charles Shultz
TinPusher007 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 963 posts, RR: 2 Reply 11, posted (7 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 2696 times:
Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 9): sorry, but why should DL retire the 777? The 787 is not big enough to replace the 777 (and nothing is shure yeet about the 787-10!). I can see DL in the future definetly ordering the 787 though, both -8 and -9 to suppliment the 763/4 fleet and eventually to replace of course. The 783 may also be considered. I can see the 789 opening new routes fro DL, that have been out of reach of the 767, but which couldnt suppliment a 777 though.
More 737s (-800 and 900ER) will replace the Mad Dogs and 757s. It will be most logical to have a 737/777/787 fleet. Plus, having the 777 in the fleet will give them a better option to get the 773 if they would ever need a bigger a/c.
The only route currently flown by DL that needs the range of the 772ER is ATL-NRT. All of the other routes use the 777 simply for capacity. But even then, there are very few routes that actually see double daily 777 services. Moreover, the 777 is rotated on and off certain routes depending on time of year. All of this says to me that the capacity and range of the 772ER is generally not imperative to DL's int'l network if something more efficient (787) is available. The vast majority of DL's european network is served by the 763ER. It's probably a fair bet to say that some of them could use more capacity than the 763 can offer, but not up to the size of the 777 which is why I maintain that the 787 would be a better match.
Assuming that the Boeing produces some version of the 787 that offers similar capacity to the 777, I don't see why DL would need their small fleet of 8 777's unless maybe they expand into Asia, but DL has shown very little interest in this market with the exception of India.
"Flying isn't inherently dangerous...but very unforgiving of carelessness, incapacity or neglect."
DeltaGuy767 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 633 posts, RR: 2 Reply 12, posted (7 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 2685 times:
Quoting DAirbus (Reply 10): Delta's MD88's are between 12-18 years old with an average age of 15.3 years. I don't expect them to be replaced for another 5 years but It is something they need to start planning for now.
Exactly, along with those 757's which need to be replaced within the next 10 years as they are goeeing old as well. This is a big undertaking as DL has 120 MD-88's and 121 757's almost 1/3 of the fleet will need to be replace within the next 10 years and that's not including the 762's and 737 older versions which could amount to nearly 1/2 of the fleet being retired in the next 10 years. IN the next 20 years we can expect the 763's to be gone as well which DL has about 75 of I believe causing about 65-70% of the DL fleet as we know it today being retired in the next 15-20 years. Along with their financial planning DL should be very concerned about its fleet replacement over the next 10 years. (If they survive )
TinPusher007 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 963 posts, RR: 2 Reply 13, posted (7 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 2676 times:
I happen to agree with your analysis of your proposed future of DL's fleet the most.
I agree with your analysis of the fleet planning except for one small thing. The 737-900 really isn't a "long haul" aircraft. It has less range than the -800. Now Boeing does have the 737-900ER but I think the range of that even falls short of the -800 and the -700 for that matter. That said, I do agree that DL will have either version in its fleet, but the 737-900 will be a high density domestic aircraft that will take over many former 757 routes whenever DL decides to replace them.
"Flying isn't inherently dangerous...but very unforgiving of carelessness, incapacity or neglect."
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