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Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?  
User currently offlineTL8490 From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 161 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 11 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2964 times:

I have been reading all of the posts and have been talking to a few friends who work for Delta and more and more it does not appear that Comair is a part of any plans for Delta. ASA seems to be taking over a lot of the flying along with Chautauqua. In addition, Delta talked about returning 50 regional jets to leasors. While I realize this is not their entire fleet it does seem to be very substantial...Any Thoughts??

17 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineLitz From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1764 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 years 11 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 2892 times:
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Comair and ASA's costs are astronomical ... both the cost of operations of the planes themsevles, and the cost of the personnel ...

ASA has been taken care of via sale-to-Skywest (I would expect to see major labor cost changes under new ownership) ...

Comair ... now that's another story ... expect to see MAJOR cost reductions in salaries under the bankruptcy court's supervision, and major fleet reductions or transformations.

Gone will be the high-lease-cost CRJ's, probably replaced with much more reasonably priced E170/E190, if anything; mother DL may just reduce some of those routes right out of DCI and back into Mainline.

This does beg a related question - where on earth are all these CRJ's gonna go?

It's pretty much a given fact that both DCI and Northwest's Pinnacle operation are going to pretty drastically shrink.

That's a lot of little, expensive-to-operate, airplanes that will be idled.

Is there a secondary market (other countries, or perhaps rehab to corporate jets?) for these little planes?

- litz


User currently offlineCRJ900 From Norway, joined Jun 2004, 2178 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (8 years 11 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2844 times:
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Quoting Litz (Reply 1):
Gone will be the high-lease-cost CRJ's, probably replaced with much more reasonably priced E170/E190,

I thought it was the other way around, that the myriads of CRJs were cheap to lease while the much-hyped E170/190s were expensive being new and in greater demand... ?



Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
User currently offlineN766UA From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 8234 posts, RR: 23
Reply 3, posted (8 years 11 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 2771 times:

Quoting Litz (Reply 1):
Gone will be the high-lease-cost CRJ's, probably replaced with much more reasonably priced E170/E190, if anything; mother DL may just reduce some of those routes right out of DCI and back into Mainline.

No way is DL gunna replace or remove from service all those CRJs. Heck, they just bought more from DH and the CR7s continue to roll in. Besides, they're my favorite bins to work in!  silly 



This Website Censors Me
User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11559 posts, RR: 62
Reply 4, posted (8 years 11 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 2764 times:

Quoting Litz (Reply 1):
This does beg a related question - where on earth are all these CRJ's gonna go?

Maybe this is the coming RJ glut that Mike Boyd has been predicting for a few years.


User currently offlineSkibum9 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 1229 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 11 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 2666 times:

Quoting Commavia (Reply 4):
Maybe this is the coming RJ glut that Mike Boyd has been predicting for a few years.

I guess not to far off in the future, we will be seeing 100s of RJs, at least the CRJ 50s/40s, baking in the desert, with no buyers. The leasing/finance companies will probably take a bath on them. A few corporations may snatch a few up, but many will just sit or be scrapped. I don't see many airlines picking them up second hand given their high CASM.



Tailwinds!!!
User currently offlineLUVRSW From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 498 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (8 years 11 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 2566 times:

What is a CASM? Thanksssssssssssss

User currently offlineWukka From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1017 posts, RR: 16
Reply 7, posted (8 years 11 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 2545 times:

Quoting LUVRSW (Reply 6):
What is a CASM?

"Cost for (per) Available Seat Mile"

I understand the ramifications on a high level, but I'm not a financial number-cruncher, so spilling my thoughts on it would be worthless.  Smile

Hopefully knowing what the phrase means will be enough to get you going on a google-hunt; and maybe you can come back and help me with some of the funky math!

Best of luck... hope that helps a little bit.



We can agree to disagree.
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6606 posts, RR: 24
Reply 8, posted (8 years 11 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2494 times:

Quoting N766UA (Reply 3):
No way is DL gunna replace or remove from service all those CRJs. Heck, they just bought more from DH and the CR7s continue to roll in.

While DL isn't going to dump all of Comair's CRJ's....I could easily see DL dumping 50-60 of them. Comair has no CR7's coming in...in fact Comair has no new aircraft scheduled for delivery. The only reason DL picked up some of the DH RJ's was part of the agreement with GE for financing. DL didn't want the DH RJ's, but they had to take them as part of the deal.

I see two paths for Comair:

1) DL dumps 50-60 of Comair's CRJ's. Then DL slashes Comair wages, benefits, etc. Then DL sells off the leaner and sleaker Comair to Mesa (or Republic). The money from the sale is used to payback part of the DIP financing as part of DL's emergence from BK.

2) DL dumps 50-60 of Comair CRJ's. Then DL slashes Comair wages, benefits, etc. With lower costs and a better business model, DL (with help from GE) picks up a ton of 70 seaters for Comair to fly. The 70 seaters allow for some growth at Comair, but also continue to replace 50 seaters.

Either option would be rough for Comair employees, but (2) would probably be better. However, given DL's rocky financials I think (1) is more likely.


User currently offlineVgnAtl747 From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 1513 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (8 years 11 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 2460 times:

A) If DL didn't have future plans for us, they would have dumped us before CH 11 and not carried us with them. Personally I think going through this entire mess, pulling Comair along with them, shows that they're committed to keeping the Comair relationship going, although they could just be doing it to make us get costs under control, so they can sell us for a more attractive price.

B) Re: FlyPNS1... DL doesn't control Comair wages/benefits (with the exception of our flight pass benefits), but you can expect to see cuts within OH.

C) The post that said DL will start to take over RJ lines with Mainline is completely false. Every document I've seen has said that DL wants to become an INTERNATIONAL carrier, and leave domestic travel to the regionals, OH, EV, RP, etc.

D) Fred Buttrel's plan is for Comair to exit CH11 within 6 months, seperate from DL. Will that happen? I don't think so, but many people in Erlanger would love to go independent from DL again. He is trying to position OH to be the lowest cost carrier of DCI. That means there's a lot of work to do, including labor cost reduction. I've heard the OH is the highest paying regional airline, at least for customer service agents, that is going to have to be reduced.

E) Although OH was the first regional to go to all jet service, in a meeting I was at, Fred said, "Don't be supprised if airlines start using turboprops again, on short single segment hops, as they are more fuel efficient." Does that mean we may start flying props again on some of our shorter, lower yield routes? Perhaps, but nobody knows. He also was in a big push to fly the ERJ170, but as DL's financial position worsened, Comair couldn't find funding for these aircraft. Perhaps after the exit from CH 11, this is a possibility.

F) We're not going to really see any major changes until DL finalizes the winter schedule. It looks like a lot of OH 3 flight/day stations are being reduced to 2 flights. Odly enough, this goes against DL's "International Plan", so who knows. My station is slated to loose our 1pm flight, the flight all of our international passengers take. The flight after that, doesn't arrive CVG until well after 7:30, making CVG international connections virtually impossible, and insuring there's no chance of hopping a CVG-ATL bridge flight for an ATL international... it's just not going to work.



Work Hard. Fly Right. Continental Airlines
User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (8 years 11 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 2423 times:

I would frankly rather see less frequency with DL mainline service than hop on a cramped CRJ every two hours out of DAY.


One Nation Under God
User currently offlineSkibum9 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 1229 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 years 11 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 2324 times:

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
A) If DL didn't have future plans for us, they would have dumped us before CH 11 and not carried us with them.

From what I understand, DL tried to shop OH, but there were no takers as the cost structure was too high.

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
I've heard the OH is the highest paying regional airline, at least for customer service agents, that is going to have to be reduced.

It is also the 1st or 2nd highest for pilot pay, which significantly adds to the CASM of those RJS. Check out www.airlinepilotpay.com



Tailwinds!!!
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6606 posts, RR: 24
Reply 12, posted (8 years 11 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 2321 times:

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
Personally I think going through this entire mess, pulling Comair along with them, shows that they're committed to keeping the Comair relationship going, although they could just be doing it to make us get costs under control, so they can sell us for a more attractive price.

Exactly. DL couldn't find anyone to take Comair...in part because of Comair's high costs. In BK, Comair's costs will be cut which would make Comair a more appealing item.

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
B) Re: FlyPNS1... DL doesn't control Comair wages/benefits (with the exception of our flight pass benefits), but you can expect to see cuts within OH.

DL OWNS Comair, so ultimately they have the say on what they think pay at Comair should be. They will pass that number to Comair management who will then negotiate with the Comair unions.

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
The post that said DL will start to take over RJ lines with Mainline is completely false. Every document I've seen has said that DL wants to become an INTERNATIONAL carrier, and leave domestic travel to the regionals, OH, EV, RP, etc.

In the past, this might have been true. But if DL wants to survive in the long-run, this plan won't work. Flying a bunch of high-CASM RJ's up against WN, B6, FL is doomed to fail. I'm sure the E170's will likely replace some mainline flying....but in the long-term DL will need larger planes (E190's, 737's,etc) to compete with the LCC's.

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
Although OH was the first regional to go to all jet service, in a meeting I was at, Fred said, "Don't be supprised if airlines start using turboprops again, on short single segment hops, as they are more fuel efficient." Does that mean we may start flying props again on some of our shorter, lower yield routes?

I could see this happening if OH can get the financing. RJ's don't work well on short-hauls....particularly with jet fuel prices so high.

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
We're not going to really see any major changes until DL finalizes the winter schedule

While the winter schedule isn't finalized, we already know that Comair is taking big cuts....it's just a matter of how big. From what I've heard, an announcement should be coming pretty soon.


User currently offlineTL8490 From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 161 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 years 11 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2174 times:

Comair's problem is not only the size of their planes but the customer service product on the ground. The Christmas Fiasco, the pilot's strike, and in general the lack of respect for the customer. Comair will cancel a flight much faster than any other carrier I have seem.

User currently offlineATCRick From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 772 posts, RR: 12
Reply 14, posted (8 years 11 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2123 times:
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The RJ world has got out of hand.. When ACA first started flying them, they would only use them on their longer legs because short flights (IAD-RIC, IAD-CHO) etc, were too short for the RJ to make money. Then the world exploded and the flying pubic became afraid of anything that had a prop cause they didn't think it was safe. This MUST come to an end. There are old prop jobs (Twin Otters, DO-228's) etc flying millions of people from Vegas to GCN every year and not one passenger yet had died of fear of the dreaded prop. Sorry to go off on a tangent but I think the turboprop will return as mainline airlines begin taking back some of their routes. Maybe Skywest will buy Comair too.

My two cents all,

Rck



natch!!
User currently offlineCarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2954 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (8 years 11 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2052 times:

Comair has some of the oldest RJs at about 13/14 years old. I am not sure what the RJ's design limits are but are they anywhere near reaching their cycle/hour limits?

User currently offlineKarlB737 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3105 posts, RR: 10
Reply 16, posted (8 years 11 months 2 hours ago) and read 1909 times:

Courtesy: The Cincinnati Enquirer

Pay, Job Cuts Coming Soon At Comair

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...icle?AID=/20051005/BIZ01/310050010


User currently offlineNkops From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2662 posts, RR: 6
Reply 17, posted (8 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1787 times:

What would be the odds of DL selling some of OH CRJ's to someone who could operate them for a lot cheaper... ( You all know who I'm referring to, don't make me say it!!)




OK, Mesa!!!



I have no association with Spirit Airlines
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