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BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA  
User currently offlineSlarty From Canada, joined Sep 2005, 342 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 8060 times:

http://www.thebusinessonline.com/Sto...B76EF0-7991-4389-B72E-D07EB5AA1CEE

"...

A former pilot Walsh, 43, said he would be looking at the new Airbus A350 mid-sized jet in advance of expanding its fleet later in the decade. The plane, subject of a trade dispute between Europe and America over launch aid, has the range to enable BA to fly non-stop to South Africa, Singapore and the West Coast of America. Walsh said the plane and its Boeing rival, the 787, both had the advantage of being able to cover a large part of BA’s existing route network.

He also said the airline would evaluate the Airbus A380 superjumbo, and envisaged some role for the plane but not a significant one. Until now BA has adopted a wait-and-see approach to the supersize jet which underwent its first flights earlier this year.

Walsh said the A380 is likely to be a “niche”, and therefore risky, product for BA. An initial analysis has shown it is not a suitable replacement for the carrier’s existing Boeing widebody jets from 2011.

Walsh will also consider Boeing’s new 787 mid-sized plane and the 747 Advanced, should it launch.

He said fleet expansion “does not make a lot of sense” until after the airline moves to Terminal Five in 2008."

57 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePlanesarecool From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2001, 4119 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 8050 times:

Great, another thread on BA's so-called future aircraft plans. Is there nothing else to talk about these days?

User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12028 posts, RR: 47
Reply 2, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 8030 times:
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Quoting Planesarecool (Reply 1):
Great, another thread on BA's so-called future aircraft plans. Is there nothing else to talk about these days?

Why doesn't LH have PTV?

When will NW replace their DC-9s?

When will AA change their colour scheme?

Why is the A340 such an awful plane?

[ad infinitum]



Hey AA, the 1960s called. They want their planes back!
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21415 posts, RR: 60
Reply 3, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 7987 times:

Quoting Planesarecool (Reply 1):
Great, another thread on BA's so-called future aircraft plans. Is there nothing else to talk about these days?

Who wants to fly a CO 757 trans atlantic and why don't they have PTVs in coach?

Why would anyone want to fly non-stop 18 hours?

There are plenty of overdone topics people can't get enough of.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 4, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 7924 times:

Quoting Planesarecool (Reply 1):
Great, another thread on BA's so-called future aircraft plans. Is there nothing else to talk about these days?

WRONG!! If these comments/statements are true, then it is the first time the new BA boss has said that the A380 just isn't the right aircraft for them, on top of that, Walsh has also gave a date (2011) as to when they want to start replacing their widebodies..........this is already on top of the fact Eddington had stated that The WhaleJet would probably not be in the cards.............


I think if the 747ADV goes and performs well, it will provide BA an opportunity to increase seats on an incremental basis...if BA go for the 747ADV instead of The WhaleJet, I think it would be a blow to The WhaleJet program, as well as increase the probability it will take more years for it to turn into a profit..if that!

The 787/A350 battle is going to be a good one, as Walsh was a big fan of Airbus, but with BA having all its largebody planes as Boeing manufactured, I would probably give it a slight tilt to Boeing's favour...



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineYOWza From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 4845 posts, RR: 16
Reply 5, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 7877 times:

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 2):

Why doesn't LH have PTV?

When will NW replace their DC-9s?

When will AA change their colour scheme?

Why is the A340 such an awful plane?

I see I'm not the only cynic on this forum. I whole-heartedly agree with you about the DC9s in particular!

YOWza



12A whenever possible.
User currently offlineSlarty From Canada, joined Sep 2005, 342 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 7789 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 4):
If these comments/statements are true, then it is the first time the new BA boss has said that the A380 just isn't the right aircraft for them, on top of that,

Exactly why I posted it ... there are several new pieces of info. here.

On another note: If you see a forum post entitled "BA's Walsh States A380 is Risky for BA" and you are "tired" of hearing about BA, might i recommend that you move on? Nobody is forcing you to read stuff that you don't want to ...


User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11116 posts, RR: 62
Reply 7, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 7715 times:

The plane, subject of a trade dispute between Europe and America over launch aid, has the range to enable BA to fly non-stop to South Africa, Singapore and the West Coast of America.

Finally! BA will be able to fly nonstop from LHR to JNB, SIN and LAX! No more technical stops in Des Moines, Cairo or Dhaka! Who writes these things?  Smile

He also said the airline would evaluate the Airbus A380 superjumbo, and envisaged some role for the plane but not a significant one. Until now BA has adopted a wait-and-see approach to the supersize jet which underwent its first flights earlier this year.

Shhh ... don't tell the Airbus people this!

Walsh said the A380 is likely to be a “niche”, and therefore risky, product for BA. An initial analysis has shown it is not a suitable replacement for the carrier’s existing Boeing widebody jets from 2011.

Is this the first definitive inkling from anyone in a position of authority within BA -- on the record -- that the A380 is not right for BA?

[i]Walsh will also consider Boeing’s new 787 mid-sized plane and the 747 Advanced, should it launch.[.i]

I expect both aircraft to be in the BA fleet by the end of the next decade.


User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 7928 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7545 times:

BA--unlike other international airlines that fly in and out of LHR--does not have a pressing need for the A380-800 for this reason: BA controls a large fraction of the landing slots at the airport. As such, BA can easily re-arrange their flight schedules using their LHR landing slot allocation to do things like multiple flights per day to various cities in the USA.

User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8638 posts, RR: 75
Reply 9, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7498 times:

Quoting Commavia (Reply 7):
Walsh said the A380 is likely to be a “niche”, and therefore risky, product for BA. An initial analysis has shown it is not a suitable replacement for the carrier’s existing Boeing widebody jets from 2011.

Is this the first definitive inkling from anyone in a position of authority within BA -- on the record -- that the A380 is not right for BA?

[i]Walsh will also consider Boeing’s new 787 mid-sized plane and the 747 Advanced, should it launch.[.i]

I expect both aircraft to be in the BA fleet by the end of the next decade.

What an airline selects for its fleet does not reflect on a manufacturer, or an aircraft type, it reflects on its business needs and route structure of that airline.

I don’t see the need for BA to go 747-ADV, I do see a need for 773ER, 787/350 aircraft, and maybe a handful of A380's. As pointed out they have the luxury of going high frequency out of LHR, most operators don’t. People who are ordering 380's for LHR operations have limited slots so the 380 is the only way to increase capacity.

If they go 380, it will be for ports where they are limited on slots away from LHR and want to increase capacity.

I see the 380 to sell 500-1000 airframes in pax and freighter configs, with the majority going into Asia.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4252 posts, RR: 29
Reply 10, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7475 times:

Quoting Slarty (Reply 6):
On another note: If you see a forum post entitled "BA's Walsh States A380 is Risky for BA" and you are "tired" of hearing about BA, might i recommend that you move on? Nobody is forcing you to read stuff that you don't want to ...

Very well said. Welcome to my RU list for saying what I always want to say to those folks who get bent out of shape over repeat threads!

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 4):
if BA go for the 747ADV instead of The WhaleJet, I think it would be a blow to The WhaleJet program, as well as increase the probability it will take more years for it to turn into a profit.

I agree, but only from the perspective that without a BA order it makes it harder to validate the business model of the 380. Not that it hasn't been validated thus far with some of the marquee airlines that have ordered it. But without BA and some other global heavy-hitters then I think the jury will be out that much longer on the 380.



I'm not a racist...I hate Biden, too.
User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 23
Reply 11, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7410 times:

Yet in another article Walsh claims that he is interested in the A380 as an addition to the existing 747 fleet and not as a replacement.

Wonder what he'll say tomorrow.  Yeah sure

http://www.airliners.net/discussions...eneral_aviation/read.main/2370919/



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User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8638 posts, RR: 75
Reply 12, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7368 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 10):
But without BA and some other global heavy-hitters then I think the jury will be out that much longer on the 380.

If look at Fedex, they have only ordered 10 A380s, but statements last week from Fedex that they will be operating hundreds in the future.

To judge on the success or otherwise of the 380 at this stage is premature, bit like suggesting since BA havent ordered the 773/773ER or 772LR those programs are doomed. The 773 will have a bright future, like the 380.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineJetMaster From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 7314 times:

Quoting Slarty (Thread starter):
He also said the airline would evaluate the Airbus A380 superjumbo, and envisaged some role for the plane but not a significant one. Until now BA has adopted a wait-and-see approach to the supersize jet which underwent its first flights earlier this year.

Walsh said the A380 is likely to be a “niche”, and therefore risky, product for BA. An initial analysis has shown it is not a suitable replacement for the carrier’s existing Boeing widebody jets from 2011.

Could also be a diplomatic way to tell Airbus to make a good offer...I'm convinced we'll see BA ordering A380s in the future.


Regards,
JM


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9834 posts, RR: 96
Reply 14, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 7296 times:
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Quoting Manni (Reply 11):
Yet in another article Walsh claims that he is interested in the A380 as an addition to the existing 747 fleet and not as a replacement.

Wonder what he'll say tomorrow.

http://www.airliners.net/discussions...0919/

In both the thread starting article, and this one above Walsh says BA ARE interested in the A380, but NOT as a replacement for its other widebodies, rather as an addition to them (as Manni says).

I can only interpret that as BA will get A380's, but not very many, and not even ruling out 747ADV if they do.
Doesn't sound unreasonable to me.......


User currently offlineGlom From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 2809 posts, RR: 10
Reply 15, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 7054 times:

Quoting Zeke (Reply 9):
I don’t see the need for BA to go 747-ADV,

See I don't get that. Why would they want something of 773ER size and A380 but not something in between? Is 450 seats some kind of black hole while either side is viable?


User currently offlineWhiteHatter From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 6884 times:

Quoting Planesarecool (Reply 1):
Great, another thread on BA's so-called future aircraft plans. Is there nothing else to talk about these days?

Because British Airways are one of the few major carriers who are profitable, and in a position to be able to go out and buy aircraft without having to pass the begging bowl round creditors and banks.

Unfortunately they are playing hard to get at the moment. They don't need any capacity or renewal short-term and can play the long game with both major suppliers. I'd expect an order at the other extreme first, some nice new Embraers joining the fleet before anything over 100 seats.

Quoting Glom (Reply 15):

See I don't get that. Why would they want something of 773ER size and A380 but not something in between? Is 450 seats some kind of black hole while either side is viable?

The only people who think an airline has to have aircraft of every possible size are armchair experts. An airline can still make money without needing to plug every available capacity slot in their fleet. It's just a case of tuning fares and demand, and for that reason fleet types can be eliminated altogether and cost savings made.

I doubt if you will see any BA order for the A380 before 2010 at the earliest.


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8638 posts, RR: 75
Reply 17, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 6717 times:

Quoting Glom (Reply 15):
See I don't get that. Why would they want something of 773ER size and A380 but not something in between? Is 450 seats some kind of black hole while either side is viable?

It was my opinion only, I was thinking since they have about 350 seats on their 744's, a 773ER could do much the same job over its routes with just a few less seats and a little more cargo.

I thought BA operate their 772's with more cargo (20t v 18t) than the 744 now.

Being almost limitless on the slots available to BA at LHR, I thought from a marketing point a view higher frequency would have been better than volume, and would let them dominate their main hub LHR.

As I said before the only place I see them using the 380 if they do get them would be on routes where they have limited slots away from LHR, or an A380ER version would enable them do LHR-SYD with 400+ pax.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3341 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 6542 times:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
Walsh says BA ARE interested in the A380, but NOT as a replacement for its other widebodies, rather as an addition to them...

Am I right in thinking that some of BA's 747's are configured with about 300 seats?

According to the A.net 380 aircraft data page, the "A380 has 49% more floor area but only 35% more seats (in 555 seat configuration) than the 747-400".

After the economics of the a/c have been demonstrated, might BA not be interested in the A380 partly because of the space it offers, allowing a higher proportion of premium seating?


User currently offlineSlarty From Canada, joined Sep 2005, 342 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 6417 times:

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 13):
Could also be a diplomatic way to tell Airbus to make a good offer...I'm convinced we'll see BA ordering A380s in the future.

Could be ... he certainly left the "door open" with his comment "... the airline would evaluate the Airbus A380 superjumbo, and envisaged some role for the plane but not a significant one.". The "significant" comment might be another ploy to get Airbus to offer a super-duper deal  Smile


User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 23
Reply 20, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 6313 times:

"if BA go for the 747ADV instead of The WhaleJet, I think it would be a blow to The WhaleJet program, as well as increase the probability it will take more years for it to turn into a profit..if that!"

While BA might be a very respectable airline, an airliner doesn't fail or succeed with a BA order. More than 500 units of the very succesfull A330's have been ordered so far, none of them by BA. Only 14 Concordes have been built, 7 of them for BA. Nevertheless a A380 order by airlines such as BA, QF, SQ and other profitable airlines, certainly is better publicity and an asset for future salespitches as compared to orders from ...



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User currently offlineAS739X From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 5997 posts, RR: 24
Reply 21, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 6209 times:

BA has to beautiful of a paint job to go on the A380!

ASSFO



"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 22, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 6134 times:

Quoting Manni (Reply 20):
While BA might be a very respectable airline, an airliner doesn't fail or succeed with a BA order. More than 500 units of the very succesfull A330's have been ordered so far, none of them by BA. Only 14 Concordes have been built, 7 of them for BA. Nevertheless a A380 order by airlines such as BA, QF, SQ and other profitable airlines, certainly is better publicity and an asset for future salespitches as compared to orders from ...

correct, but you can be certain that Airbus DEFINITELY had BA in mind, given the status of LHR and BA.........from what I've read, I would almost go as so far to say Airbus is betting that BA would probably replace most, if not all of their 747's with The WhaleJet........



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineGARPD From UK - Scotland, joined Aug 2005, 2579 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 6106 times:

Quoting Planesarecool (Reply 1):
Great, another thread on BA's so-called future aircraft plans. Is there nothing else to talk about these days?

Yes but this time we have the head honcho telling us the A380 is NOT the 747 replacement for BA that a lot on these forums have said it would be.

He also says the A380 will not have a big role to play in BA, if they get it. That to me is a crucial bit of news thats has served to dampen a few arguments from the A380 flagwavers RE a BA order.



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User currently offlineJetMaster From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 5637 times:

Quoting GARPD (Reply 23):

Yes but this time we have the head honcho telling us the A380 is NOT the 747 replacement for BA that a lot on these forums have said it would be.

No surprise it won't be "the" B747 replacement. But there's still an option to replace a part of them with the big bird. There are many ways for an airline how to get a good deal...denying interest in public is one of them.


Regards,
JM


25 Zeke : Correct, the 380 is not a general 747 replacement for BA, however it is a 747 replacement for airlines that operate them with 400-550 pax configurati
26 Revelation : Sure, Udo, and there are ways for CEOs to communicate that they see the A380 as at best a risky, niche product.
27 N79969 : Before they began building the A380, Airbus stated that every 747-400 was a candidate for replacement by the A380. This is how they justified spending
28 GARPD : Absolutely, but I didn't deny this in the first place. Probably one of the most sensible arguments I've seen RE: the BA and A380 ongoing argument. Ku
29 VV701 : BA are likely to order in time to take delivery in late 2011 and early 2012. They will need temporary extra capacity for the London 2012 Summer Olympi
30 Keesje : So a. BA is evaluating but won´t replace all their 747s with A380s. b. Certainly no deliveries before 2008. shocker, really..
31 RedChili : I don't understand how people can interpret this article as a statement like "BA will not order the A380." Now, I don't know if the reporter chose exa
32 Willyj : I agree it's poorly worded, or at least a bit vague, but perhaps they mean that the 787/350 could fly to secondary cities in these markets. For examp
33 N79969 : I think RedChili is correct in his view.
34 Lehpron : Normally, I take a bit of salt with a company's analysis of any product as it can be biased by either resistance or bandwagon-ism within the company.
35 Ken777 : I believe that BA is conservative enough to wait until actual operational experiences are gained on the 380 before they put their feet in the water. T
36 Post contains links and images Keesje : A few months ago BA (Broughton) said they were not interested in A350. A stupid statement in any case, I quote myself, Mon Aug 1 2005 01:06:26 UTC+2:
37 Post contains images Jacobin777 : that's what I've been saying.........good to know someone here sees it the same way... they aren't going to get the plane just for the Olympics, not
38 EI321 : Your statement grossly contradicts itself. Airbus saying that every 744 is a candidate for replacement by A380 just means that the 380 is a contender
39 RedChili : Walsh did not say anything about BA considering the 773ER. Was this just an oversight on his or the journalist's part, or is this an indication that B
40 VV701 : And neither are they going to order any new wide bodies for delivery well in front of the Olympics or just after they have finished. They need new wi
41 Post contains links Jacobin777 : how does it contradict itself? The post is correct in saying that Airbus expects each 747 to be replaced by The WhaleJet, I think you are misundersta
42 Post contains links Revelation : More of the same from here: Care to put some spin onto this one, Udo?
43 N79969 : Do you understand the term "candidate" and the nuance it carries? I chose it for a reason. Re-read my post again. Airbus set its bar very, very high.
44 Slarty : Oh come on! Tell us how you really feel ... LOL
45 Scorpio : Um... Airbus has never said they expect every 747 to be replaced by A380. They said every 747 was a CANDIDATE to be replaced. That's a very big diffe
46 BestWestern : IMHO, the BA 744 fleet will be (eventually) replaced by the excellent 773 and targeted A380 implementation (Perhaps as much as twenty) for high densit
47 EI321 : Yes I understand it very well, thanks. Im stressing the difference between ''a candidate'' and as you said, and a ''1:1 replacement ratio'' ie, the o
48 Keesje : [quote=Revelation,reply=42]He points out that with a list price of $305m (£175m), he needs some convincing that the economics of the new plane will s
49 N79969 : EI321, You did not catch the point I was making or actually that Airbus was making about 4 years ago. They stated that every 744 was a candidate for r
50 Slarty : Goodness gracious me! That $305M is WAY higher than the Airbus fans have been posting here. It is also about $50M higher than what Gellman was using
51 Post contains images Jacobin777 : damn..you pipped me to the post..... ..and you are correct , Leahy said that every 747 was a target of the A380 and if they take 50% market share..ie
52 Keesje : So Airbus is too expensive, or they are getting many orders because of offering aircraft cheap. You can't t have it both ways. I think Airbus is conv
53 Scorpio : And what exactly are you trying to say with that? That Airbus believed every 747 would be replaced by an A380 or a Boeing equivalent? If that is what
54 GARPD : Boeing played that game and lost many times. Something you and other flagwavers are always keen to rub into conversations when ever it comes to prici
55 Scorpio : That's not what he said.
56 Post contains images GARPD : Its been a long day.... up since 4am. I have rectified my post. Thanks for the heads up
57 Post contains images Jacobin777 : WRONG! Leahy SPECIFICALLY talked about replacing the 747 with the A380 on a "one-to-one basis".......how difficult is that to understand???
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