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Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!  
User currently offlineCV990 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (9 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 6205 times:

Hi!

This year the production of the 757 finnally ended after more than 20 years. I look to this airplane and the niche he got and now people need to think that one of these days the 757 will need to be replaced. I looked to the 757 Production List and I found that some of the big 757 operators have already some pretty old 757. I will not say that in the next 2 or 3 years they will need to be replaced but in the next decade I think both Airbus and Boeing should consider projecting another airplane of this class. The 757 is not a common airliner, I would say that it's almost an hybrid! We can see both flying domestic and also flying international and even intercontinental. Let's see:

US - The oldest 757 examples come from 1982
DL - The oldest 757 examples come from 1984
NW - The oldest 757 examples come from 1985
AA - The oldest 757 examples come from 1989
UA - The oldest 757 examples come from 1989
CO - The oldest 757 examples come from 1994

If in one way AA, UA, and specially CO can have a few more years in advance with their 757's. Both DL, US and NW have 20 years or more of operation, of course I'm talking about older examples. People can say that for example both 737-900 and the A321 could indeed replace the 757 in the future, but when I look to those planes I don't see them has truly 757 replacement, specially in the intercontinental market! Is it possible that the 787-3 can absorve the 757 class? I really don't think so! I think that both Boeing and Airbus should start to develop the 797 and the A360 ( or whatever designation they would like... ) from 2010 on, or even before that to fill the needs of some airlines that will probably look with nice eyes to a new airliner in this class.
Regards

36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3594 posts, RR: 10
Reply 1, posted (9 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 6166 times:

I heard the first inklings (I would not rate it as a credible source as it was an airline analysist) of Boeing starting to design a replacement for the 737 based on 787 composite technology. It could make sense to design the 737 replacement to be scalable to replace the 757 as well and perhaps leave the small end of the market to the up and coming rj manufacturers and Airbus. Airbus might have their development hands full between the A380, A400, and A350 programs.

But it is all just speculation.


User currently offlineAviation From Australia, joined Dec 2004, 1143 posts, RR: 21
Reply 2, posted (9 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 6163 times:

I hope the 757 is never replaced  Smile

Its a beauty alright!

Thanks,
Aaron J Nicoli



Signed, Aaron Nicoli - Trans World Airlines Collector
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 3, posted (9 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 6150 times:

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 1):
I heard the first inklings (I would not rate it as a credible source as it was an airline analysist) of Boeing starting to design a replacement for the 737 based on 787 composite technology. It could make sense to design the 737 replacement to be scalable to replace the 757 as well and perhaps leave the small end of the market to the up and coming rj manufacturers and Airbus.

The internal Boeing name for the B737/B757 replacement is Y1. However, as long as the order backlog for the B737NG stays as long as it is now, Boeing will not start serious development of Y1.


User currently offlineDean From Hungary, joined Apr 2005, 216 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (9 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 6140 times:

Maybe 737-900X (or ER) could be a replacement...
Also, I like the design of the 757 too.
Airbus doesn't have an aircraft between A320 family and A330. They have the A321 as a competitor of 757. Why should Boeing replace the 757 with a brandnew type? I think the 737-900 is good for this job  Smile


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 5, posted (9 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 6101 times:

Quoting Dean (Reply 4):
Maybe 737-900X (or ER) could be a replacement...
Also, I like the design of the 757 too.
Airbus doesn't have an aircraft between A320 family and A330. They have the A321 as a competitor of 757. Why should Boeing replace the 757 with a brandnew type? I think the 737-900 is good for this job

For missions that the B737-900 can perform, the operating costs are lower than those of a B757. However, there are many B757 missions that a B737-900 cannot perform.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21544 posts, RR: 59
Reply 6, posted (9 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 6091 times:

This topic is so done, but here it is in a nutshell, discussed many times.

783/8 will replace early 762 and 752 planes for some carriers (not a one to one size swap, but the oldest will be retired, newer planes of that size will go on those routes, and the 787 will take over the routes that could use upsizing anyway. 739ER and A321 can take over as well on some routes that the 752 was overkill for. Not one for one replacement there either, but still fits the mission of the 752 in some markets. For that matter A320 and 738 can also take over for 752 routes of 2000nm or less. 3:2 replacement creates more frequency.

That only works for the first few years of the 787, but then the 757 fleet gets older and older.

Longer term, it isn't a "rumor" that the 737 and 752 will be replaced by a composite "Y1" model. Whether it will be like the 737NG and only offer one wing, or like the 787 and offer two wing/range options is up for debate. I believe the latter, with 4 sizes, the smaller 2 available in 3000nm range, and the larger 2 available in both 3000nm and 5000nm versions. The largest will be larger than the 752 and smaller than the 753. My opinion is you will see 1 class sizes of 149, 170, 199, 230 (2-class 135, 149, 174, 199). There would be a new engine family devoted to this plane with a wider thrust range than now, but commonality to integrate better into the fleet (unlike the 737/757 now).

Airbus would be wise to do the same, and not just "NG" the A320. Considering the A320 weight, I don't think doing an A350 job on it will work either. It need not be new in FUSELAGE SHAPE (why mess with a great thing?), but there needs to be a real change in weight and range for that better, and a true 757 replacement, not the the A321 half-solution they have now.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2371 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (9 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 6047 times:

I hope any 757 replacement has the same thrust to weght ratio, and the same kick@$$ profile.


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The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21544 posts, RR: 59
Reply 8, posted (9 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 6032 times:

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7):
I hope any 757 replacement has the same thrust to weght ratio, and the same kick@$$ profile.

I would bet that if my hunch pays off, the engine family will be such that airlines that want a higher thrust version of the 3000nm plane could have one with little changed besides a higher rated engine than the standard version and different procedures for takeoff.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineNewark777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 9348 posts, RR: 29
Reply 9, posted (9 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 6021 times:

Isn't one of the advantages of the 757 the ability to get out of short and hot and high airports? Is there any other large narrowbody with this ability?

Harry



Why grab a Heine when you can grab a Busch?
User currently offlineCV990 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 5835 times:

Hi!

I know that sometime ago Airbus came with an idea of developing the Airbus A330-100, I think that could be a good compromise. But I feel that either Airbus and Boeing still want to wait let's say 2 or 3 years before they come up with something new.
Regards


User currently offlineCPH757 From Denmark, joined Sep 2005, 684 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 5720 times:

I don't see the need for it right away. Sure, some of the 757's are old, but many of them can relatively easy be replaced by the 737-900 and 321's. This will mainly be seen on domestic US routes and European charter.

The intercontinental 757's have found some niche. But eventually there are adequate 757's out there which won't be fully depreciated for many years to come. These can serve this market.



Last flight: SAW-CPH on H9 on 02/11/09 - Next Flights: 23/12/09 CPH-AAL on QI, 30/12/09 CPH-LHR on SK, 19/01/10 CPH-CDG-
User currently offlineSocrates17 From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 54 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 5697 times:

Alas. What a beautiful A/C. What a fabulous takeoff. You can almost imagine that it takes off from standing on its tail "the way God and Robert Anson Heinlein decreed that (it) should."


You Can't Take the Sky from Me
User currently offlineOrion737 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 5690 times:

Newark777 is right about the ability of the 757 at hot and high airfields. The321 is a poor performer in that field. I am sick of the 321 being said is a 757 replacement. It neither has the range, capacity or performance capabilities of the 757.

User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31684 posts, RR: 56
Reply 14, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 5654 times:

The B737-900ER seems a good Successor.
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineCV990 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 5592 times:

Hi guys!

Yeah I know that when we talk about the replacement in the future of the 757 people get quite emotional!!! I also agree that the plane is great and when it needs to be replaced both Airbus and Boeing will need to come out with a product truly top-quality! But life is like that, we can't avoid that any longer, specially taking in mind that 757 production is over!!! It almost reminds me when I discussed with my friends in late 70's what's gonna replace the 727!!! the plane was excelent, lot's of airlines had them and we couldn't find out any sucessor!!!!! When Boeing came out with the 757 every one said no way that new plane would replace the 727. Now we look back and see that most airlines found out other airplanes to do that task. Same with 757 one day!
Regards


User currently offline3201 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 5456 times:

Quoting CV990 (Reply 15):
in late 70's what's gonna replace the 727!!! the plane was excelent, lot's of airlines had them and we couldn't find out any sucessor!!!!!

Yeah, back then the B757 was too big and expensive to replace the B727 (sound like the B787?) and the MD80 series (and later the new bigger B737's) were the right size but not enough range/payload combo, especially at hot/high fields (sound like the B739/A321?).


User currently offlineCV990 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 5440 times:

Hi 3201!

Well we might be seeing "this movie again!!!" with the 757 versus 787! We have now, what? 3 versions of the 787? Maybe Boeing will come up with another "type 757" version in the future!!! That would be excelent! Can we think about a shorter 787???
regards


User currently offlineJetMaster From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 5425 times:

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 13):
Newark777 is right about the ability of the 757 at hot and high airfields. The321 is a poor performer in that field.

Most B757 customers do not need its "hot and high" performance.

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 13):
I am sick of the 321 being said is a 757 replacement. It neither has the range, capacity or performance capabilities of the 757.

"Performance" is relative. Due to its lower weight the A321 is in most cases more economical for airlines which do not need the B757's range and T/O performance. The B757's capacity advantage is only marginal, however the A321's cargo capability is significantly better and offers more flexibility.


Regards,
JM


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 19, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 5403 times:

Quoting CV990 (Reply 17):
Can we think about a shorter 787???

No, the B787 will probably be stretched again to the B787-10, but it will not be shortened. Instead, Y1 will replace both the B737NG and the B757.


User currently offlineOrion737 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 5400 times:

The 757 is much more flexible than the 321 in what it can do. It is both at home on long, thin toutes as well as useful for shorter, higher density routes and can operate from short runways with a full load of passengers.

User currently offlineCV990 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 5379 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 19):
Y1 will replace both the B737NG and the B757.

Hi!

That looks to me so distant..... I can understand Y1 replacing the 757 but the 737NG already???? Doesn't make much sense the 757 beeing around that long and be replaced at the same time!
Let's see this:

737-600 - Started operation from June 1998 with SAS
737-700 - Started operation from April 1997 with Southwest
737-800 - Started operation from February 1998 with Hapag-Lloyd
737-900 - Started operation from March 2001 with Alaska

If we take in mind that normally it takes between 20/25 years for a model to stay around we are talking that only from maybe 2017 that Y1 Boeing will have something comming up, and at that time most of the 757's will be like 30 + years old??? It is difficult for me to accept that!
regards


User currently offlineKen4556 From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 169 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 5334 times:

Many airlines decided to retire aircraft, like the 727 for example, because the were not efficient anymore due to 3-man crew and/or fuel efficency. Thus, they retired them before or as major checks were required.

Since the 757 is still are very efficient aircraft, I believe the airlines will keep them and perform the major checks on them; thereby, not requiring a immeadate replacement.

I am not sure the 757 are going to be retired at the 20 or 25 year mark as happened with many other aircraft types.


User currently offlineMytravel330 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 42 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 5315 times:

Evan as an Airbus supporter i have admired the B757 for many years and will be sad when the last one flying retires in some 25/30 years time, i have flown in 757's many times and loved everyone of those flights, its a good looking sleek aircraft and will be very hard to replace if only on looks alone, it has a distinct shape that we have come to admire and love.

User currently offlineJetMaster From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (9 years 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 5302 times:

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 20):
The 757 is much more flexible than the 321 in what it can do.

Depends on which aspect you are referring to. For many airlines the A321 might be the more flexible aircraft (cargo, commonality...)

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 20):
It is both at home on long, thin toutes

Though it has been replaced on many long thin routes by B738 and A32X series, especially in the US. And you don't find that many "long" routes in Europe.

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 20):
as well as useful for shorter, higher density routes

But the lighter, the better, especially on short hauls.

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 20):
and can operate from short runways with a full load of passengers.

Not a major aspect on a global scale.


Regards,
JM


25 Orion737 : Giving the example of a British inclusive tour carrier. The 757 is useful for them as it can operate on long haul transatlantic flights from regional
26 FCYTravis : The A321 in the US has been limited to exactly one operator... US Airways. It hasn't particularly found a market niche here.
27 JetMaster : These tour operators are not a majority among B757 customers. Besides one B752, only B753 are left in Germany and those don't compare in size. Regard
28 JetMaster : No surprise given the large B757 fleets everywhere. Regards, JM
29 Ikramerica : But for airlines with large 757 fleets, they don't need ALL their planes to do this service. So if they also fly A32X or 73X fleets, the 739ER and 32
30 FCYTravis : Agreed, given the vast number of "Classic" 737s and MD-80s still in service with US airlines especially.
31 ChiGB1973 : I think they will rank up there with the MD-11 when it comes to the freight companies. Very desired and will be around for many moons. M
32 Zvezda : It is not clear that the 20-25 year replacement cycle will hold through the transition to composite fuselage aircraft. If the advantages are as great
33 CV990 : Hi! That's a good point ChiGB1973!!! I can clearly see the 757 has a great freighter in the future with lot's of potencialities!!! It will be almost l
34 ACdreamliner : it was my understanding that Boeing said the 739X will take the bottom end of the market, with the 783 taking the top end, and those that need the ext
35 A350 : I think nobody here in the forum claims that the A321 can compete with the 757 in the fields of range and take off performance. However, both are oft
36 Boeing7E7 : Two things: Some airlines will upsize to the 787-3 in markets that can meet the demand for the larger bird. Others will downsize to the 737-8/9 or A-3
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