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Embry-Riddle Professor Believes WN Study Flawed...  
User currently offlineAAgent From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 560 posts, RR: 14
Posted (8 years 6 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 4144 times:

"Strong Competition Has Led to Low Fares at DFW Airport

FORT WORTH, Texas -- New research by Bijan Vasigh, a professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU), calls into question the validity of a previous study distributed by Southwest Airlines and The Campbell-Hill Aviation Group. Professor Vasigh examined the economic premise of the Campbell-Hill study and found significant economic modeling errors that call into question the validity of the entire study. Chief among Campbell Hill’s errors are:

1) Assuming there are currently no low-cost carriers operating at DFW International Airport;

2) Relying upon pricing and market-stimulation assumptions that are more than a decade old; and

3) Ignoring the industry’s fare readjustment in January 2005."


The article continues at length at the following link...

http://www.aa.com/content/amrcorp/pr...Releases/2005_10/18_newstudy.jhtml

Professor Bijan Vasigh has some interesting arguments indeed.

Best Regards,
AAgent


War Eagle!
41 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 4116 times:

Southwest is about to find out what happens when their local issue goes national and people who know what they're actually talking about on the issue get involved.

User currently offlineCjpark From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1234 posts, RR: 6
Reply 2, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 4018 times:

Sounds vaguely familiar to what some people have been pointing out in numerous threads on this board. WN's motives may be crystal clear but their facts are not.


"Any airline that wants to serve the [region] can go to DFW today and fly anywhere they want," WN spokesman Ed Stewart
User currently offlineAAgent From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 560 posts, RR: 14
Reply 3, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days ago) and read 3983 times:

Where is the WN/DAL rebuttal on this topic? I've grown rather fond of the spirited debates between the WN/DAL and AA/DFW camps. Where's OP and the WN legions? Perhaps they're busy packing up they're desks getting ready for the big move out of Dallas. biggrin 


Best Regards,
AAgent



War Eagle!
User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days ago) and read 3951 times:

Quoting AAgent (Reply 3):
Where is the WN/DAL rebuttal on this topic? I've grown rather fond of the spirited debates between the WN/DAL and AA/DFW camps. Where's OP and the WN legions? Perhaps they're busy packing up they're desks getting ready for the big move out of Dallas.

I'm in the FAA's camp and both sides need to can it. DFW/AA quit being stupid and not addressing the issue the way it should be and WN/DAL quit acting like the kid that never got a spanking.


User currently offlineODwyerPW From Mexico, joined Dec 2004, 793 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days ago) and read 3895 times:
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AAgent,
We've grown bored of you only contributing pro WA/AA propaganda.

Flown Southwest, oh I don't know, 10 times, never a problem.
I love flying Southwest and I could care less what happens in DFW.

I've flown AA twice, at great cost, luggage left behind once, treated very, very rudely another. Don't even ask me to recount the episode...I won't. What are the chances? I'm sure it can be attributed to WN operating out of DAL somehow.

I like United as well, so it's not that I'm a die hard WN loyalist either.

See I'm not an industry insider, an analyst or politician. Just a customer (small businessman) who PAYS for ALL of his OWN flights. In the end, it's my opinion that matters. I'll vote with my money.



Quiero una vida simple en Mexico. Nada mas.
User currently offlineApodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 4124 posts, RR: 6
Reply 6, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days ago) and read 3895 times:

I went to Embry-Riddle and I have heard of this proffessor, who is an Aviation Buisness professor. Its a very interesting study and it does bring up alot of questions about this debate. Even though I am opposed to Wright, I am not going to dispute the results of the study. That having been said, I am still opposed to wright, simply because I feel if airlines are allowed to serve the airport, they should be allowed to sell tickets to wherever they fly, which is not the case now. If this had been a different situation, like WN and BFI, I would say WN needs to suck it up. But since they have been allowed to serve DAL for so many years, I don't think you can suddenly say, hasta la vista.

Still, the arguement raised brings up the point that some people against wright may be cherry picking certain airfares on certain routes to try to prove their arguement. The other thing I think this proves is that neither WN nor AA can commission a study that isn't flawed, with data manipulated in their favor. And people still wanted to drink the WN kool aid.


User currently offlineMDorBust From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days ago) and read 3880 times:

"Professor Vasigh concentrated on actual fares charged consumers in each market and found the highest fares at DFW Airport are charged by US Airways, not by American."

Does anyone else see the funny part of this statement?

This study is just about as loopy as all the other studies both sides have been putting out.

Prof Vasigh makes a point about fare comparisons being inacurate because of buisness and first class issues, and is right... then turns around and makes a dollar per mile issue... which is also inacurate because Southwest doesn't do intercontinental long haul like AA does.

The whole monopoly comparisson is wanker spanked too. I'd love to see where AA haveing only a 64% share comes from. Is that passengers or aircraft movements? Did that count Eagle as a seperate operation?... or maybe it was when Delta still had a hub there... AA doesn't have as high a percentage as WN does at DAL... but they are much higher then 64%... maybe they included FedEx and UPS operations into that...


It would be nice if AA would actuall link the whole study instead of parseing it... but at least they admit this study was done for them, and not independant.

I expect soon AA and WN will start off a round of "yes you are", "no I'm not, you are"... maybe even some "I'm rubber and you're clue"


User currently offlineTWA902fly From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 3100 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days ago) and read 3875 times:

Quoting Apodino (Reply 6):
I went to Embry-Riddle and I have heard of this proffessor, who is an Aviation Buisness professor. Its a very interesting study and it does bring up alot of questions about this debate. Even though I am opposed to Wright, I am not going to dispute the results of the study. That having been said, I am still opposed to wright, simply because I feel if airlines are allowed to serve the airport, they should be allowed to sell tickets to wherever they fly, which is not the case now. If this had been a different situation, like WN and BFI, I would say WN needs to suck it up. But since they have been allowed to serve DAL for so many years, I don't think you can suddenly say, hasta la vista.

Still, the arguement raised brings up the point that some people against wright may be cherry picking certain airfares on certain routes to try to prove their arguement. The other thing I think this proves is that neither WN nor AA can commission a study that isn't flawed, with data manipulated in their favor. And people still wanted to drink the WN kool aid.

The one problem i have is taht if wright goes down... then places like DCA and LGA will have to remove their perimeters if someone like WN says "i want LGA to LAX"...



life wasn't worth the balance, or the crumpled paper it was written on
User currently offlineApodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 4124 posts, RR: 6
Reply 9, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3839 times:

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 8):
if someone like WN says "i want LGA to LAX"...

If they ever say that, that will be one you will know where you were when you hear it.


User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3964 posts, RR: 13
Reply 10, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3834 times:

Quoting ODwyerPW (Reply 5):
Flown Southwest, oh I don't know, 10 times, never a problem.
I love flying Southwest and I could care less what happens in DFW.

I've flown AA twice, at great cost, luggage left behind once, treated very, very rudely another. Don't even ask me to recount the episode...I won't. What are the chances? I'm sure it can be attributed to WN operating out of DAL somehow.

Flown AA about 700,000 miles. Always got excellent service. I don't love flying it though, sorry. Got some excellent fares and got tired of flying NY-London $99 each way.

Flown Southwest once. It sucked. No assigned seats, rude passengers, silly FAs. Rented a car through Southwest on the website. When I got there, there were no cars. I called Southwest and they told me that's what I get when I book three days in advance. Their customer service has an IQ of about 62.


User currently offlineModernArt From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3787 times:

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 10):
No assigned seats,

Why adults need to be told where to sit still escapes me. 15+ years flying Southwest and still have yet to sit next to somebody that's rude or inconsiderate.


User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3744 times:

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 8):
The one problem i have is taht if wright goes down... then places like DCA and LGA will have to remove their perimeters if someone like WN says "i want LGA to LAX"...

Totally different scenarios. LGA is slot restricted and was forced to limit range due to capacity so that local/regional traffic would be its primary use diverting long haul to JFK and DCA is totally political.


User currently offlineAAgent From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 560 posts, RR: 14
Reply 13, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3647 times:

Quoting ODwyerPW (Reply 5):
We've grown bored of you only contributing pro WA/AA propaganda.

If you've grown tired of the matter, why then did you feel obliged to click on the topic? Furthermore, it would seem obvious that you must have at least a passing interest in the subject matter or else you wouldn't have read the thread and then felt compelled to leave a post.

Regarding my own interest in the Wright Amendment, you can bet your bottom dollar that I am very engaged in the matter as I clearly have a vested interest in the outcome, not at all unlike my fellow airline industry compatriots at WN. I will volunteer that I am very passionate about the issue and actively seek engaged debate through which divergent viewpoints can be explored. I am definitely pro-Wright, but I always like to listen to a good argument from the other side. If you don't enjoy reading about it, then please feel free to click on other subjects that you find interesting. There are lot's of other topics for you to explore. Happy clicking on a.net.

Best Regards,
AAgent



War Eagle!
User currently offlineINTENSS From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 317 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3566 times:

Quoting Apodino (Reply 6):
I went to Embry-Riddle and I have heard of this proffessor, who is an Aviation Buisness professor.

Same here. Took 2 classes with Dr. Vasigh, both undergrad and graduate level. Always impressed with his depth of knowledge in economics and forecasting models.


-Rich


User currently offlineODwyerPW From Mexico, joined Dec 2004, 793 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3495 times:
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You've flown over 700,000 miles. Have you paid for every ticket out of your own pocket? I have. That's why I love flying Southwest. It saves me money. If money were no object, than of course I'd fly a full service carrier 1st class everytime. WN is very successful, so there must be allot of folks who think like me and could care less what little ol airport in Dallas they fly out of.

I did encounter a sharp flight attendant (not rude to me, but responded rudely to a very belligerent customer) on one of my more recent SW flights. However, I've encountered rude flight attendants with every airline I've flown, with the exception of AirNZ and Qantas.

My only beef regarding WN's lack of assigned seating is that I can't stop the beautiful women (especially the gals from Texas) from sitting in my aisle who are attracted to me because of my good looks and charm when I want to stretch out and enjoy the row to myself  Wink



Quiero una vida simple en Mexico. Nada mas.
User currently offlineCkfred From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 5066 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3470 times:

I learned in college statistics that you can devise a survey that will come up with a favorable outcome. But the study that AA has does raise some issues that WN needs to address about the industry-wide reduction of fares after DL introduced Simplifares.

However, my understanding is that WN does not use its monopoly position. If it has strong competition on Point A to Point B, but no competion on Point A to Point C, and both routes are equal distances, then it will offer the same range of prices on both routes. That's not to say that the route with no competition will have fewer cheap seats.

As for AA's service, I have flown AA regularly since 1994. I can honestly say that I've never had a rude F/A or CSA. The vast majority are friendly, and a number of them have gone out of their way to be helpful.

But here is some irony. WN was more than willing to build a terminal for itself at BFI and move its entire operation from SEA. Yet, WN wouldn't even think of setting up in Terminal E at DFW after DL closed its hub. One would think that renovating existing gate and ticketing space would be a lot cheaper than building a new terminal at an airport with almost no commercial service.

Now, we know that WN isn't afraid of going into a legacy carrier's hub. It flies into SEA (AS), CLE (CO), DTW (NW), STL (then TW, now AA), PHL (US) and BWI (US). So, is WN really afraid to venture into DFW? I don't know.


User currently offlineMDorBust From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3438 times:

Quoting Ckfred (Reply 16):
Yet, WN wouldn't even think of setting up in Terminal E at DFW after DL closed its hub

There's a very good reason for this. Terminal E is on the south end of DFW's Terminal complex. During the vast majority of the year, departures are to the south... meaning any WN departures would have to taxi past 2 1/2 AA terminals to get to the nearest runway. Knowing the tricks AA pulled with Braniff, that's not something WN is going to want to do.

If the world were perfect WN could get themselves a new terminal built between 17c and 17L, near the east tower, with the ATC dumping all WN flights onto the east side of the airport.... but we all know that isn't going to happen

[Edited 2005-10-19 06:43:18]

User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3964 posts, RR: 13
Reply 18, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3419 times:

Quoting ModernArt (Reply 11):
Why adults need to be told where to sit still escapes me. 15+ years flying Southwest and still have yet to sit next to somebody that's rude or inconsiderate.

Adults need assigned seats everybody likes an empty seat right next to them. Southwest travelers will dump three laptops, two jackets and four bags from McDonald's in every middle seat so that nobody ever thinks of seating next to them. The only explanation I have for your 15 years of happy flying is that my standards are higher.


User currently offlineCtbarnes From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 3491 posts, RR: 51
Reply 19, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3390 times:

Not everyone in the industry would agree:

http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm

(Scroll down to October 10 and July 25)

Charles, SJ



The customer isn't a moron, she is your wife -David Ogilvy
User currently offlineModernArt From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 3344 times:

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 18):
The only explanation I have for your 15 years of happy flying is that my standards are higher.

Even a self-important blowhards get assigned the middle seat on their prestegious legacy carriers every so often and there's not a darn thing they can do about it.

For me, an uncountable number WN segments flown, and still have yet to sit in the middle seat.

[Edited 2005-10-19 13:41:16]

User currently offlineCkfred From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 5066 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 3285 times:

MDorBust:

You actually reminded me of something that a friend of mine, a pilot with AA, told me. I think this was at IAH about 10 years ago.

While my friend was in the right-hand seat of a 727, taxiing out for takeoff, he happened to look out to the right and saw a WN plane trying to pass his plane. After he told the captain to look out to the right, the captain called the tower and asked if he had been put back in line after WN.

The controller advised WN to get back behind the 727, and the next WN crew that tried that stunt would be reported.


User currently offlineTyphaerion From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 619 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 3266 times:
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Quote:
Professor Vasigh’s review of Campbell-Hill’s study was done at the request of American Airlines.

Enough said.

This is at the bottom of the article at AA's website. Now I currently go to ERAU, though I am an AE major and have not had any business courses. But I do not have any trouble believing that any of the professors there could spin any research to look one way or the other, and I think where the research money comes from is a big deal. They are definitely smart enough to know how to spin things.

As for this article saying the things you all have been saying, you are right. It does. You all already shot that study full of holes. Which means that any of us could have written that study, CJ included, though it would have been tough for him not to repeat himself and talk in circles. (all in good fun CJ  Wink ).

I will say it again. All of these studies, no matter whom they are from, are a load of horse rubbish. All of them are politically motivated. If you are interested in the WA, you need to go out and do your own study. Period.

Unfortunately, most Americans are too lazy to do that. Which is why us slightly educated people have to put up with these studies.



For some, the sky is the limit. For us, it is only the beginning... -- Jack Hunt
User currently offlineGoingboeing From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4875 posts, RR: 17
Reply 23, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 3262 times:

Quoting Cjpark (Reply 2):
Sounds vaguely familiar to what some people have been pointing out in numerous threads on this board. WN's motives may be crystal clear but their facts are not.

Look at who paid for the study. I wonder what an ERAU study funded by Southwest would look like...


User currently offlineODwyerPW From Mexico, joined Dec 2004, 793 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 3238 times:
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Incitatus,
You've flown WN once, by your own admission, and you can accurately conclude that every WN passenger places 3 laptops and 2 coats on the seats so no one sits next to them? I hope AA doesn't pay you to analyze the WN Study too.

Do you get your paycheck from the same place as AAgent.



Quiero una vida simple en Mexico. Nada mas.
25 Aa777flyer : Not really, DFW has a mater plan that limits the total number of flights as well. And IF the WA is repealed you can bet that the remaining "slots" wi
26 Stlgph : I know, shame what a little bit of actual research and knowledge on a subject can do, isnt it?
27 Boeing7E7 : Ever heard of Academic Integrity? There is no such animal. Airports cannot have a plan that restricts capacity without a State (i.e. Orange County) o
28 Aa777flyer : Crap. I meant to type DAL for the master plan. And YES DAL does have a master plan limiting capacity at 250 flights and 32 gates.
29 Iluv2pilot : Who cares about the studies! The Wright Amendment is anti competitive and AA is worried sick about having to compete with them. Let's have real compet
30 RL757PVD : Heres a litte known fact... Embry Riddle Airlines (mail carrier) from wAAY back in the day, helped form American Airlines! In another note, having had
31 Boeing7E7 : They do more for DL and UA these days. What's your point? He taught you what you needed to know so you could formulate your own opinion rather than a
32 RL757PVD : Should have worded that differently...ERAU used to be an airline and a flight school....the airline became part of AA...flight school is now the univ
33 Bond007 : Well, somebody has to, so what's your point? If you were in the last boarding group and those were the only seats left ... guess what? I actually try
34 Typhaerion : I am not questioning his integrity, I am questioning his point of view. That is all.
35 INTENSS : Damn straight. And if you ever wanted to shoot the breeze about industry specifics, every professor I encountered would do so freely after class or w
36 RL757PVD : Right....so thats why I got a good job right out of college making MBA salary with my undergrad degree. There are just better professors there to lea
37 INTENSS : That's not what I alluded to whatsoever. I can tell by your attitude, though, how you might have gotten this great opportunity....... As much as you
38 Ckfred : Here's something to consider. If WN gets the Wright Amendment repealed, that what's to keep other airlines from lobbying Congress to try and do away w
39 RL757PVD : Not sure what you are eluding to, but saying i dint make the most of it then discounting suprassing most of not all in my graduating class in sorta c
40 Boeing7E7 : His point of view is tied to the academic integrity. This is why AA went to Riddle. You commission a study using a private consultant and you usually
41 Typhaerion : I am not so sure, but I yield to your greater experience. I stand corrected.
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