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QF To Make Decision On Dec 7  
User currently offlineBakestar From Australia, joined Sep 2005, 90 posts, RR: 0
Posted (9 years 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 5774 times:

I as everyone of you are eager to finally know the decision of QF for the their next fleet upgrade, or in other words the 777/A340 & 787/A350 decision,

Here is an article from 'The Australian' newspaper that might put some of you at ease (for the moment anyway)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au.../0,5744,16979228%255E23349,00.html

my money is on a mix of both airbus & boeing.


fly'nhi
47 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineTsentsan From Singapore, joined Jan 2002, 2016 posts, RR: 15
Reply 1, posted (9 years 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 5550 times:

What an appropriate date for the decision to be made... I'm sure if the order goes either way, the "loosing" party will proclaim it to be FDR did on the same day some years ago.


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User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5790 posts, RR: 47
Reply 2, posted (9 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 5484 times:

ATWOnline ran the same story yesterday http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=2778 but with one addition...Airbus has apparently told QF that the A340-500 is out of the running because it can't do LHR-SYD year round non stop. They also added that the 772LR can't do it either (gee that's not a surprise coming from Airbus).

Dixon said Airbus has advised that its A340-500 is not a contender for the Sydney-London Heathrow route and added that the route is not without its challenges for the 777-200LR.

IMO, if this is true then Boeing can amke a great deal for both the 777 and 787 package that QF will find hard to refuse. I think it's going to go Boeing all the way.



That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 3, posted (9 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 5459 times:

Quoting Bakestar (Thread starter):
my money is on a mix of both airbus & boeing.

I agree...will be interesting to see what kind of plane goes where...One possibility is for QF to get Boeings and JetStar to get Airbus.......

A mix of Boeings and Airbus for both would be interesting, but fleet type and mission profile would probably be the over riding profile.

what would really be interesting is if Boeing offers a "787-10" version,



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (9 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 5427 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 3):
what would really be interesting is if Boeing offers a "787-10" version,

It would indeed, for Boeing could then get the whole pie in a mix of 787-8/9/10 and 777-200ULR & 300ER. Plus if they can lock in Emirates with the 787-10 order, the program would be immediately viable, although this would cause the demise of all pax varients of the 777-200 excepting the ULR.



One Nation Under God
User currently offlineStickShaker From Australia, joined Sep 2004, 758 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (9 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 5373 times:

Quoting Bakestar (Thread starter):
my money is on a mix of both airbus & boeing.

All the signs are that it will be a clean sweep for Boeing.
The 783 and 789 are a good fit for what QF require and the 772LR is the only aircraft that can perform their stated intention of SYD-LHR.
QF have stated they will not be adding any more A330's and do not view them as satisfactory for domestic ops.
Its not so much a case of Airbus offering inferior aircraft but of not being able to offer aircraft that fit in well with QF's requirements.

This is going to be a massive order.
My guess at the breakdown would be:

25 783,s firm
35 789's firm
10 772LR's firm
40 783/9 options and 10 772LR options.

Airbus may score some A380 options being converted to firm orders.


Cheers,
StickShaker


User currently offlineFlyingHippo From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 704 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (9 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 5338 times:

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 5):
the 772LR is the only aircraft that can perform their stated intention of SYD-LHR.

When did the 772LR got it's range increase to do SYD-LHR non-stop? I thought the wind will prevent it from doing so? The 772ULR is still at the discussion stage, do you think QF will be the launch customer for 772ULR?

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 3):
One possibility is for QF to get Boeings and JetStar to get Airbus.......

I have a question about QF and JetStar... I understand that QF is the parent company of JetStar, but why do they have to operate aircrafts from different manufacturers? Especially if JetStar will start to operate on routes to the US, their mission profiles will become more similar to QF... then why operate different planes?


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 7, posted (9 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 5275 times:

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 5):
All the signs are that it will be a clean sweep for Boeing.

I think that would be the size of it if the decision was taken purely on business terms. But there are many good reasons for not completely 'freezing out' the other manufacturer.

However, I think the A330 and A345 can be ruled out; and so can the A350, on the basis of uncertainty about both eventual performance and delivery dates.

My hunch is that the lion's share will go to Boeing, but that Qantas may order some A346s to replace some of their older 747s, and allocate them to their LCCs for use on holiday routes.

[Edited 2005-10-20 16:26:35]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlinePHXinterrupted From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 474 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (9 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 5231 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
My hunch is that the lion's share will go to Boeing, but that Qantas may order some A346s to replace some of their older 747s, and allocate them to their LCCs for use on holiday routes.

With the price of fuel being what it is, and forecasted to be, I think Qantas would be foolish to chose the 346 over the 777.



Keepin' it real.
User currently offlineClassicLover From Ireland, joined Mar 2004, 4643 posts, RR: 23
Reply 9, posted (9 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 5187 times:

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 6):
I have a question about QF and JetStar... I understand that QF is the parent company of JetStar, but why do they have to operate aircrafts from different manufacturers? Especially if JetStar will start to operate on routes to the US, their mission profiles will become more similar to QF... then why operate different planes?

To differentiate the low cost brand from the mainline carrier, Jetstar have A320s. In addition, it was to differentiate Jetstar from Virgin Blue, which operates Boeing 737s.

Another guess is that there is a pool of A320 qualified pilots in Australia since the demise of Ansett. Just a guess!

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 6):
When did the 772LR got it's range increase to do SYD-LHR non-stop? I thought the wind will prevent it from doing so? The 772ULR is still at the discussion stage, do you think QF will be the launch customer for 772ULR?

From what I can gather, they're offering a 4 auxiliary fuel tank which will make it viable. You must also remember that the SYD-LHR non-stop would be aimed at business travellers - there may be no first or economy product at all.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 2):
I think it's going to go Boeing all the way.

I agree!

Trent.



I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
User currently offlineJetMaster From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (9 years 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 5122 times:

Quoting PHXinterrupted (Reply 8):

With the price of fuel being what it is, and forecasted to be, I think Qantas would be foolish to chose the 346 over the 777.

There are various aspects to be considered when choosing a new aircraft type, not just fuel burn...


Regards,
JM


User currently offlineKiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8580 posts, RR: 13
Reply 11, posted (9 years 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 5113 times:
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Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 9):
Another guess is that there is a pool of A320 qualified pilots in Australia since the demise of Ansett. Just a guess!

that was over 4 years ago - how many of them are

a/ still in Australia?
b/ still current on A320?



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineBoysteve From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2004, 944 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (9 years 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 4981 times:

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 5):
he 772LR is the only aircraft that can perform their stated intention of SYD-LHR

I still don't believe this is viable. Too many flights would have to make a stop due to weather. Their 'none-stop' advertising would become essentially a joke


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 13, posted (9 years 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 4948 times:

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 4):
It would indeed, for Boeing could then get the whole pie in a mix of 787-8/9/10 and 777-200ULR & 300ER. Plus if they can lock in Emirates with the 787-10 order, the program would be immediately viable, although this would cause the demise of all pax varients of the 777-200 excepting the ULR.

well...there has been a thread and an online article about Boeing potentially offering the 787-10 model....if there are enough customers who want it, you can be sure that Boeing will build it....

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 6):
I have a question about QF and JetStar... I understand that QF is the parent company of JetStar, but why do they have to operate aircrafts from different manufacturers? Especially if JetStar will start to operate on routes to the US, their mission profiles will become more similar to QF... then why operate different planes?



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
allocate them to their LCCs for use on holiday routes.

I think it separates the brand..and that's what the pupose of JetStar is...and quite possibly, the mission profile would be better suited.....just a guess.



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 984 posts, RR: 51
Reply 14, posted (9 years 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 4895 times:

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 10):
There are various aspects to be considered when choosing a new aircraft type, not just fuel burn...

Irregardless, there are few (if any reasons) to suggest the A340-NG has any favor at QF. These days, the opperational cost of the 777LR outstrip virtually all aspects of the A340.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 4):
It would indeed, for Boeing could then get the whole pie in a mix of 787-8/9/10 and 777-200ULR & 300ER.

I don't believe the QF RFP is focused on any part of the "787-10" concept, A359, 772ER, etc market. They are essentially looking at the 777LR variants and the 787 v A350.

What would interset QF is a 787-9HGW

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 4):
Plus if they can lock in Emirates with the 787-10 order, the program would be immediately viable, although this would cause the demise of all pax varients of the 777-200 excepting the ULR.

I don't think that is of consequence. The 772ER had its day in the sun, and orders had slowed long before the words 787 and "dash 10" had ever been pieced together.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):

My hunch is that the lion's share will go to Boeing, but that Qantas may order some A346s to replace some of their older 747s, and allocate them to their LCCs for use on holiday routes.

The A340 appears to be a lost cause at QF. Airbus best shot would be the A350...


User currently offlineFriendlySkies From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 4113 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (9 years 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 4877 times:

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 10):
There are various aspects to be considered when choosing a new aircraft type, not just fuel burn...

And I would bet that the 773ER still beats the crap out of the A346 on most of these other aspects...and don't give me the ETOPS crap. If the price is right, nobody cares how many engines the plane has (well, as long as it has at least one!).


User currently offlineSydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 3123 posts, RR: 20
Reply 16, posted (9 years 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 4832 times:

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 5):

25 783,s firm
35 789's firm
10 772LR's firm
40 783/9 options and 10 772LR options

I don't think you'll find a firm order for 60 planes will emerge from all of this. The market would have a heart attack. I think the maximum firm order you will see for Boeings is for 40 aircraft consisting mostly of 787's with a handful of 777's.

Nor do I agree it will be Boeing all the way. Certainly for long haul it seems as if the 787/777 combination will win the day for Boeing. QF has never really shown an interest in the A340 family of aircraft and I can't see that changing. However Airbus is definitely in with a chance of scoring some additional A320's to help Jetstar grow and the A350 is a chance to get over the line for Jetstar International assuming QF wants fleet differentiation between their mainline and LCC aircraft. I think that will be a factor in the decision because if you order just the 787 for both JQ Heavy and Qantas mainline, the labour groups will demand parity of pay & conditions for flying the aircraft. Whereas if you order the 787 for mainline and the A350 for JQ heavy, you automatically have a point of differentiation. Still it is all going to come down to price at the end of the day.


User currently offlineQFA001 From Australia, joined May 2000, 673 posts, RR: 53
Reply 17, posted (9 years 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 4719 times:

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 5):
The 783 and 789 are a good fit for what QF require and the 772LR is the only aircraft that can perform their stated intention of SYD-LHR.

Not that I need to be sold on it, but I'm not sold on QF using -200LRs LHR-SYD vv. IMHO, it's a distance too far for that airplane. Over-engineering an over-engineered airplane is perplexing. I hope that if QF buys the airplane that they will concentrate on routes such as LHR-PER vv or DFW-SYD vv.

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 6):
I have a question about QF and JetStar... I understand that QF is the parent company of JetStar, but why do they have to operate aircrafts from different manufacturers? Especially if JetStar will start to operate on routes to the US, their mission profiles will become more similar to QF... then why operate different planes?

The genesis of the split fleet has come under Dixon's leadership. He believes that the airline needs a dual-supplier strategy in order to keep procurement costs down. (It's fashionable right now. In the early '90s, becoming single-supplier was the way to keep procurement costs down.) However, perhaps more importantly, it means that QF's subsidiaries can hold QF mainline at arm's length and not be subject to the same high cost structure. In other words, internal differentiation.

Anyhow, I think I'm just repeating what other's have mentioned.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 16):
I don't think you'll find a firm order for 60 planes will emerge from all of this. The market would have a heart attack. I think the maximum firm order you will see for Boeings is for 40 aircraft consisting mostly of 787's with a handful of 777's.

It depends on how QF sells the deal, right? If the new airplanes are viewed by the market as being very fuel-efficient and a positive for the company, then the market might not lose their collective minds? Or, is that wishful thinking on my behalf?

 airplane QFA001


User currently offlineStickShaker From Australia, joined Sep 2004, 758 posts, RR: 5
Reply 18, posted (9 years 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 4679 times:

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 16):
I don't think you'll find a firm order for 60 planes will emerge from all of this.

Media releases by QF in the last few days suggest an order of this size - not easy to keep up with what QF want as it changes so often but the current "theme" suggests an order of 60-100 widebodies.
QF are mindful of the encroach of EK, SQ and other onto their territory and want an appropriate fleet to defend that territory. They would have realised that they wont be able to keep these competitors of the pacific routes forever.

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 6):
When did the 772LR got it's range increase to do SYD-LHR non-stop?

QF are looking at an all premium service with slightly modified 772LR's - "lightened interior" and extra tankage.


I think the 346 probably has more merit than some give it credit for here but it doesn't seem to have a snowballs chance in hell in getting over the line at QF. Geoff Dixon has publicly stated his admiration for the 777 on several occasions.

My money is still on a big order (60 firm) and a big win for Boeing.

Cheers,
StickShaker


User currently offlineJetMaster From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (9 years 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 4603 times:

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 15):
And I would bet that the 773ER still beats the crap out of the A346 on most of these other aspects...and don't give me the ETOPS crap.

"Crap" seems to be your favourite word...  Yeah sure

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 15):
If the price is right, nobody cares how many engines the plane has (well, as long as it has at least one!).

And if the price is right, an airline might choose one type over another...  Wink


Regards,
JM


User currently offlineAntares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 39
Reply 20, posted (9 years 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 4592 times:

Stickshaker,

I can't see any press release in media relations on Qantas.com that endorse the 777 or disendorse the A340. All I have read are statements attirubted to Dixon or Qantas sources.

Personally I think Boeing is in the box seat here, although if it doesn't produce a 787-10 in time it will also loose big time in that part of its renewal requirements.

The Australian today referred to a decision 'early in the New Year' only a day after reporting that a recommendation would go to the board by December 7. Those statements are not mutually exclusive, but the gap between recommendation and action is so long you'd expect the decision to be leaked everwhere.

The crucial external factor here is the lifting of the foreign equity cap by the government. If it doesn't lift it I am also firmly and advisedly of the view that Qantas will suddenly reduce the sweep of the new investments it will otherwise go ahead with.

Antares


User currently offlineIwok From Sweden, joined Jan 2005, 1108 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (9 years 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 4553 times:

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 10):
There are various aspects to be considered when choosing a new aircraft type, not just fuel burn...

Right you are. Price and availablilty are also very important. Considering that Boeing alreay has orders and commitments for 256 787's plus another 26 UFO's, and their projected production schedule is about 84/year, availability could become an issue. Coupled to that, an in-demand plane has lower discounts. These two factors may weigh heavily on the total number of Boeing planes ordered.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 13):
well...there has been a thread and an online article about Boeing potentially offering the 787-10 model....if there are enough customers who want it, you can be sure that Boeing will build it....

Again, I still worry about the supply side. Even if the 787-10 is built, there will be a mighty long wait. Given that 777, 767, 330 and 346/5 are available now I wouldn't discount significant numbers of either being ordered. A nice little batch of 767's could help on the high frequency routes.

I have a hard time believing that QF would order up to 60 planes all from Boeing. I'd love to be proven wrong, but the all Boeing deal is far from closed in my mind.

iwok


User currently offlineStickShaker From Australia, joined Sep 2004, 758 posts, RR: 5
Reply 22, posted (9 years 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 4501 times:

Quoting Antares (Reply 20):
I can't see any press release in media relations on Qantas.com that endorse the 777 or disendorse the A340. All I have read are statements attirubted to Dixon or Qantas sources

Hi Antares
The comments I refer to are those made by Dixon on several occasions in the last 12-18 months in various interviews (dont have a source at hand). Dont think I've ever heard him praise the 340.

Quoting Antares (Reply 20):
The crucial external factor here is the lifting of the foreign equity cap by the government

Yes - very crucial. I agree that if the cap remains then QF will be spending much less.

Quoting Antares (Reply 20):
Personally I think Boeing is in the box seat here, although if it doesn't produce a 787-10 in time it will also loose big time in that part of its renewal requirements

QF would probably convert some 789 options to 787-10 further down the track once the program is launched - which probably wont be as early as many seem to think. Boeing have quite a bit of R&D ahead of them before launching another derivative.


Cheers,
StickShaker


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10112 posts, RR: 97
Reply 23, posted (9 years 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 4447 times:
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Quoting Iwok (Reply 21):
Price and availablilty are also very important.

IMHO one of the key reasons that most large orders get split - the guys want new metal (plastic?), fast.


User currently offlineSydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 3123 posts, RR: 20
Reply 24, posted (9 years 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 4441 times:

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 18):
Media releases by QF in the last few days suggest an order of this size - not easy to keep up with what QF want as it changes so often but the current "theme" suggests an order of 60-100 widebodies.

Not a firm order though. Fuel efficient or not the market would have a heart attach at such a massive FIRM order. A mix of firm, options and rolling options will most likely be used with only 30% to 40% of the total order being firm up front.

Quoting Antares (Reply 20):
If it doesn't lift it I am also firmly and advisedly of the view that Qantas will suddenly reduce the sweep of the new investments it will otherwise go ahead with.

You mean when it doesn't lift. I still can't see any momentum for lifting the cap. Not unless you give the National Party some sweetners in any case. Maybe appoint Tim Fischer to the Board??? I mean the closest James Packer got to an airline business was flying up front before he joined the Qantas Board so why not appoint a farmer??

Quoting Iwok (Reply 21):
Considering that Boeing alreay has orders and commitments for 256 787's plus another 26 UFO's, and their projected production schedule is about 84/year, availability could become an issue

Boeing is already considering increasing the production rate of the 787. A firm commitment from Qantas would, I think, be the deciding factor for this. I therefore don't think that availabiltity issues will come into this. I'd think it likely that QF has hedged its bets both ways and taken some delivery slots on types at both Airbus and Boeing. The winner gets these confirmed, the loser gets them cancelled.

Quoting Antares (Reply 20):
but the gap between recommendation and action is so long you'd expect the decision to be leaked everwhere.

I agree. If the final decision is actually taken to buy aircraft at that board meeting then an announcement will be made very shortly after that. Actually I think the giveaway for when the final announcement is to be made can be made by watching the movements of the respective Airbus and Boeing officials. If both enter the country at one time and one leaves then we know who has won. Alternatively if one arrives in Australia just after, or at the same time as, this meeting then we will know who has won. And I don't just mean the salesman. It will be a major order for either the A350 or 787 so I'd expect the relevant program heads, or someone just below them, to be here.


25 ANstar : Is the 773er still being considered as a 747 replacement?
26 PM : I don't think you are reading the article closely enough. It wasn't AIRBUS claiming that the LHR-SYD route was "challenging" even for the 772LR but D
27 Zvezda : The B777-300ER is a replacement for the B747-100/200/300.
28 WINGS : I believe that Anstar was referring to Qantas replacement for its B747-300 fleet. In general both the B777-300 and A340-600 are excellent replacement
29 Zvezda : Generally, yes. Specifically, if 4 engines are necessary, then the A340-600 is a good replacement. If 4 engines are not necessary, then the B777-300E
30 VHTAE : I hope Australian Airlines receive new aircraft, or will they take the Qantas 763's? It will be disappointing if Qantas abolishes Australian Airlines
31 Thorben : Despite all the bashing of it, the A346 would still be the ideal plane for the flights to JFK, SFO, LAX and JNB. It has four engines, makes pax feel m
32 Dalecary : Ummm....haven't they specifically ruled out the A345 and reading certain well sourced people's comments here, the A340 is out of the running at QF. So
33 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I couldn't agree more, QF and JetStar will probably go with a Boeing/Airbus tandem selection.... I think QF and EK are giving Boeing 2nd thoughts abo
34 Dutchjet : I think that we are getting a bit too specific here - from what we have been hearing, Boeing seems to have the lead in the order and we will see QF co
35 Pilotdude09 : I thought they were ordering more 737-800s? and maybe some 900s? Because most of their 400s are going to jetconnect. But hopefully it'l be boeing all
36 PM : Will you PLEASE read carefully? (1. the original quote and 2. what I argued in reply #26.) Yes, Airbus have told QF that the A345 is out of the runni
37 777ER : Interesting that the B787-8 isn't in that guess. I would have thought QF would also go for the B787-8
38 Zeke : I saw something about that in the news, I thought whilst that may in fact be true, overall traffic into Australia has been increased last year by 9.5
39 Sydscott : Qantas had a Foreign ownership limit imposed as part of the Qantas Sale Act when it was privatised. Basically it ensures that the majority of the ord
40 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I'm not the only one who seems to be misinterpreting your comments...
41 Dalecary : Yep, the 345 is the only model to be publicly ruled out, but I'm very confident that no A340 model will be ordered by the QF group. The stories re QF
42 SunriseValley : QF and NZ have both successfully flown long over water Pacific sectors with 767's for many years against competitors flying 4 engine aircraft. Respec
43 MidnightMike : Not if you add the extra AUX tanks, right now the 777-200LR can fly the necessary miles for the SYD-LHR route, it is the headwinds that hamper the ai
44 Zeke : Thanks Dale for your reply. I was thinking one day (rare event) that oneworld carriers tend to have a reasonable level of Airbus products, with QF, B
45 SunriseValley : There has been no speculation on who might get the engines where there is a choice. Now I know this is only a 2-horse race but I will predict that it
46 Dalecary : Don't know. It could be 777-238ELR, 777-238LRX, or as you mentioned above. I'm assuming you mean a 772LR order by QF??? I don't think it is more of a
47 Qantas747 : Hi guys, firstly I think it is fantastic QF are investing in new products, either boeing or airbus, as long as it is clean comfortable and professiona
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