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Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!  
User currently offlineDsa From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (8 years 8 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 2520 times:

Hi

With the recent bird flu scares it has made me think about what affect it may have on aviation . . . If human to human transmission occurs no doubt no one will want to travel with the obvious social implications. Is this the point where airlines could collapse? Imagine been on a Long Haul flight say for 9 hours in a metal tube with someone that has the disease and is coughing and spluttering. Give me your thoughts . . .

Regards

DSA

15 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3378 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 years 8 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 2514 times:

Quoting Dsa (Thread starter):
With the recent bird flu scares it has made me think about what affect it may have on aviation ...

It's going to have to mutate an awful lot before it can infect aircraft!


User currently offlineDsa From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (8 years 8 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 2506 times:

Hi

Wow wait a minute a laugh almost came out of my mouth, I meant the business of aviation I thought it was clear. Sorry for flaming.

Regards

DSA


User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6483 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (8 years 8 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 2499 times:

3% of the population will perish, and transportation and commerce will come to a standstill. This is not a doomsday scenario, it is fact. It happens about once or twice a century, and the last time was 1918.


When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3378 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (8 years 8 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 2482 times:

Quoting Dsa (Reply 2):
Sorry for flaming.

No need to apologise. Well deserved, I think.


User currently offlineVSLover From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1897 posts, RR: 23
Reply 5, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 2430 times:

well VS certainly doesnt want to take any chances:

Virgin Buys Tamiflu

Richard Branson, Chairman of Virgin Group Ltd. said today that his company is looking into machines and new technologies to put on aircrafts to kill germs in anticipation of a bird flu pandemic. He said his company has purchased 10,000 doses of the drug Tamiflu for his staff.

In response to questions about companies hording Tamiflu, Branson said, "We've bought [Tamiflu] because our staff is on the front line."

Branson also said that despite Virgin's best efforts to protect staff and passengers, if the flu starts spreading person to person, "it will most certainly affect the airline industry."


http://time.blogs.com/global_health/2005/11/richard_branson.html


User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 6, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 2423 times:

If it's able to mutate and pass from person to person, then the SARS scare a few years back will seem like the good times. The reference to 1918 could well be true.


"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineEspion007 From Denmark, joined Dec 2003, 1691 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 2416 times:

Honestly, the way media is handling avian flu, im starting to think its total horeshit. Then again there are some people on the planet who are so stupid I cant wait for little darwinism.


Snakes on a Plane!
User currently offlineAsstChiefMark From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 2411 times:

The UN predicted 150 million worldwide deaths by the time it's done.  pessimist 

The WHO is predicting 7.5 million dead.  optimist 

Now back to our scheduled programming...

Mark


User currently offlineGift4tbone From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 612 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 2411 times:

Quoting N328KF (Reply 3):
3% of the population will perish, and transportation and commerce will come to a standstill.

I think as soon as it is found to spread person to person in whatever country. All travel into/and out of that country will cease. It will be quarantined. Not that it couldn't make its way out before then. But thats my guess.

Hey if it lasts a while, maybe the US carriers will begin upgrading domestic flights, like ORD-PVD(767?) i could hope. Big grin

-Tony@PVD



Top 3 airports: PVD 26.0%(115 flights), PHL 15.6%(69 flights), PHX 12.0%(53 flights)
User currently offlineTBCITDG From Australia, joined Jan 2004, 921 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 2401 times:

Still though, I am sure any time soon we will see Geoff Dixon, blaming the "bird flu EPIDEMIC" on fuel hikes, unfair competition and another reason why SQ should not enter the Pacific market! Big grin

User currently offlineEspion007 From Denmark, joined Dec 2003, 1691 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 2392 times:

Quoting TBCITDG (Reply 10):
Still though, I am sure any time soon we will see Geoff Dixon, blaming the "bird flu EPIDEMIC" on fuel hikes, unfair competition and another reason why SQ should not enter the Pacific market!

Dont forget george bush! Big grin



Snakes on a Plane!
User currently onlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7361 posts, RR: 17
Reply 12, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 2371 times:

It seems to me that the authorities - governments and international organisations - are being (correctly) more cautious than the threat requires.

All true flu viruses originate in birds and the pandemic of 1919 was extraordinarily appalling but not the last we suffered. In 1958 we experienced a much less severe pandemic in the UK and Europe.

A mutation of the current virus is required before it can be transmitted from human to human. Since that mutation has not and hopefully will not occur, it is impossible to predict the effect it will have on humans. It could be a worse case scenario as in 1919 but, hopefully, advances in viral medicine would reduce its impact. It could be like 1958 - soon forgotten because it had relatively low real impact.

However if a mutation happens and the mutated virus can be passed from one human to another, it is my view that the impact on commercial aviation to and from the quartile of the world where the mutation occurs will be totally devastating. What potential passengers will wait to see if the mutated virus causes a single death before he or she cancels his or her trip?

I am not an MD and if any of my statements above are the slightest bit wrong I hope someone will correct me.


User currently offlineAAgent From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 560 posts, RR: 14
Reply 13, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 2362 times:

Many airlines could indeed completely collapse. It doesn't take a huge stretch of the imagination to envision what may happen if a pandemic strain of the H5N1 virus were to develop, not only would a huge number of travelers stay at home, but I suspect a huge number of airline employees would do the same. After all, who would want to be responsible for bringing home a virus that would likely kill both yourself and your family members? Indeed, a pandemic flu virus would definitely kill more than just people. I suspect it would kill many airlines as well.

Here's to hoping the virus is a total dud!

Best Regards,
AAgent

(Edited for grammar.)

[Edited 2005-11-03 01:47:39]


War Eagle!
User currently offlineAsstChiefMark From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 2360 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
Since that mutation has not and hopefully will not occur

The regular flu season hasn't hit yet. Transmutation acceleration will start once enough people with the "normal" flu come in contact with birds with the bird flu. It'll snowball from there.

The smart thing is to keep sick people away from birds. That will prevent or at least minimize the snowball effect.

Mark


User currently offlineJetdeltamsy From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 2987 posts, RR: 8
Reply 15, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 2361 times:

Quoting Dsa (Thread starter):
Is this the point where airlines could collapse?

You bet it is. Should this develop into a worst case scenario, many airlines would either shut down temporarily or go out of business.

When the SARS situation was at its peak, Cathay Pacific was flying at 5 to 10% load factors. They reduced capacity dramatically and discontinued service to several cities. Fortunately for CX, the company has very deep pockets and was able survive.

An avian flu epidemic like is being talked about would be disasterous to the world economy in general, not just for the airlines.



Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
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