Alex Logan From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 1270 times:
I was wondering what you think that the aircraft family will look like in 10 years? I think that most of the aircraft will either be Boeing 777's, 717's, 737's and Airbus A319, A320's. I think that the 737's will be 500 series and up...What do you think?
Granite From UK - Scotland, joined May 1999, 5524 posts, RR: 71 Reply 1, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 1228 times:
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Hi
I think the larger airliners will look pretty much the same. The only new design for the forseeable future will be the A3XX.
Smaller biz jets could become more "space age" looking.
I have some pics at home somewhere with a few futuristic Boeing designs. One was a 767 look-a-like with a wing mounted high over the fuselage and held in position with pylons.
There were a few others. If I come across them I will post somehow to the site.
Na From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 8618 posts, RR: 11 Reply 2, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 1215 times:
You forgot the A340/330s that equals the 777. And even in 10 years you´ll have around 1000 747s flying around, some of them brandnew. That´ll be a lot more than the total number of 777s by then, even if that type will have incrased sales figures.
But I think by 2010 Boeing will be developing a true A3XX competitor.
I agree on you of not mentioning the B757/767. They´ll be old, do not have the importance of the 747. A shortened 777 will take the cream of the 767, and I guess Boeing might be in the final stages of ONE type substituting both. Otherwise they´ll have lost this market to Airbus´A321, A330-100-300NGs. I´m also not very optimistic about the 717 by 2010, the 737NGs will also be in their final years but still important.
Prebennorholm From Denmark, joined Mar 2000, 5810 posts, RR: 56 Reply 3, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 1200 times:
2010
In only ten years time not much will have changed except that we will be missing a lot of planes, which are already old today.
There will be new and improved versions of 747, 757, 767, 777, A330 and A340 flying. New birds will be A318 and maybe A350 (A3XX).
The following planes have disappeared completely: DC-9, 727, 737-200.
747 Classic, DC-10, L-1011, DC-8-7x, A300 and A310 will be rare birds in the sky, and hardly seen as anything but rebuilt cargo planes. (By 2015 they will all be gone except maybe the very newest A300-600F).
There will still be plenty of MD-80/90 and 737-300/400/500 around.
The real change in 10 years will be that regional jets will fill the sky as a hailstorm. Entirely new ATC procedures and equipment was introduced around 2007-2009 making room for them in the sky. They will fly passengers nonstop to their destination making the hub philosophy oldfashioned. Larger airliners (100+ seats) will take care of long range and heavily trafficed routes. They will have more slots at major airports simply because the former hub feeding regional jets will mostly finish off their job with nonstop flights between minor airports.
Also rather small long range jets as 757ER and A330-100 will fly nonstop routes between what we today would classify as minor airports (which today are mostly used by regional turboprop feeders), relieving even more slots at today's mega airports.
Still the mega airports will be a pain because the total traffic volume has doubled by 2010.
That's just my guesses. What do you think?
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs, Preben Norholm
Na From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 8618 posts, RR: 11 Reply 5, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 1196 times:
What you are predicting will be more the case in the US or other less dense populated areas in the world.
For central Europe I see the complete opposite than a hailstorm of regional jets. The sky is already now overcrowded. Improvements in air traffic control is limited, so the only way will be bigger airplanes. On main inter-europe routes like FRA-LHR or LHR-CDG and some more where now many B767s and A300s are flying you´ll see B777s, A330s, even some A3XXs and B747s will be utilised.
In general: If traffic really grows like predicted only the formula "bigger planes = equal frequencies" will work. Otherwise the formula "more and smaller planes = more accidents" would become reality. And who wants that?
Prebennorholm From Denmark, joined Mar 2000, 5810 posts, RR: 56 Reply 6, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 1181 times:
Yes Na, you are right, my prediction of "a hailstorm of regional jets" is based upon another prediction - or guess - coming true. As I also wrote in my earlier post:
"Entirely new ATC procedures and equipment was introduced around 2007-2009 making room for them in the sky".
I Know how it is in central Europe today. Countless times I have boarded a plane here in Copenhagen, ready for take-off on time, and then heard the PA anouncement: Aeh, aeh, this is your aeh captain aeh speaking aeh, air space congestion, hope we take off in 45 minutes". And then take off one and a half hour and three cups of coffee later. Or: "As you all know we are twenty minutes late which means that we missed our slot at our destination so we hope to get another slot, maybe we take off in one hour".
New ATC procedures: I have friends in Britain who are working on it. And this work has been going on for years already. But what I hear is that much too little resources are put into the work at present. And it is still not co-ordinated well enough on international scale. My guess is that it will become much worse during the next few years, and then the need will be so obvious to everybody that the next few years will produce the system. It will be very expensive. But there will be a billion pax per year to take up the bill.
If 2010 is still based on ATC controllers looking into two dimentional scopes, then we can just forget about it. We will need 3D computer pictures of the air space and some sort of active or semi active control from the ground. When cruise missiles can be dropped down a chimney at a thousand miles distance, then civil air space can also be utilized much more efficiently than today - many times better.
The other scenario is that nothing happens and air space and airport slots becomes a really scarce resource which governments sell to the highest bidders same way as the British government just destroied the allocation of cell phone frequencies in Britain. It will make air travel something for rich people only. It will also create a lot of redundancies at the Airbus partners, so it is my guess that it will not be acceptable by the EU. But of course I may be wrong. Predictions are always difficult to make, especially difficult are predictions about the future
The backbone of a new ATC system will probably be two independant GPS-like systems - two for redundancy and thereby sufficiant safety. And it will be supplemented by new radar systems and substantial two ways data communication between on board computers and ground control. And very high speed data communication between the different ground control stations.
Does it sound like a dream? It is a dream, but in fact I think that my dream will come true.
What makes it really difficult and expensive is that there has to be a lot of redundancies built into the system, and backup systems on top of backup systems, and a thousand failsafe procedures etc. But it can be done.
It will be made. And it will be made in Europe first. And then spread rather fast all over this planet. And I believe that the "crash" of the old system, which is almost inevitably within the next few years, will speed up the development to an almost unbelieveable rate. Making it operational within the next ten years.
Here in Denmark, where the problem is very small on the European scale, we will survive by giving a whole new meaning to "great circle routes". When going for instance from Copenhagen to Rome, then the airliners will make a two thousand miles diversion over Russia where the airspace will be plentyful during the next 25 years.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs, Preben Norholm
Fanofjets From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 1850 posts, RR: 4 Reply 7, posted (11 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 1162 times:
I agree that the major changes in civil aviation over the next 10 years will consist largely of variations of current designs - stretches, wingtips, engines. These refinements will improve the efficiency (particularly in fuel burn) of aircraft.
Looking ahead some 50 or 100 years from now has left me wondering: at that time, I imagine that fossil fuel will be largely a thing of the past, much as coal is today (at least in transportation applications). Solar panels built into the wings could power electric engines, perhaps driving some advanced-design propeller (good news for propliner fans?). Will my great grandson tell his child, "Wow, I remember bay back when we flew at high speeds in that quaint old Boeing 777 we saw at the Museum of Historic Aviation this afternoon"?
The aeroplane has unveiled for us the true face of the earth. -Antoine de Saint-Exupery
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