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What If Boeing Went In The RJ Market?  
User currently offline797 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 4178 times:

Hey guys!

A bit of time ago, a Brazilian friend of mine told me he met EMBRAER's president and talked for a while. The president told him a bunch of cool stuff, but there was something pretty interesting: "Since the day we built the E-195, we started to become affraid of getting inside Boeing's competition"

So, this got me thinking. What if Boeing decided to build some kind of smaller 737 to compete against EMBRAER and all the other RJs in the world? And same question goes for Airbus! Immagine this world-class manufacturers building advanced RJs! That would be awesome, for us... But not for the manufacturers.

What do you think are the odds!

Thanks guys!

Regards!

[Edited 2005-10-30 02:05:06]

17 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineZvezda From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4160 times:

The poor sales of the A318 and B767-600 will keep Airbus and Boeing executives from pursuing smaller aircraft.

User currently offlineNorthStarDC4M From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4138 times:
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Really, it wouldnt mean anything, Boeing just killed it aircraft in the 100 seat market (717), Both the 737 and 32x families are far too heavy to be considered RJ compitition, and i dont think Boeing is interested in getting into that market. Bombardier and EMBRAER will fight it out for the unser 120 seat classes, and Boeing and Airbus will keep going from there.

Even IF Boeing or Airbus entered the market with a RJ design, it would still be fighting the EMBARER and/or Bombardier products for every order, and i think Boeing or Airbus would have a very hard time competing with the other 2 due to cost of production problems, production spin up time and market saturation. Truth is the 100 seater market will be overloaded in 5-6 years, just like the 50 seat market is now, perhaps even more so as there will be more used 120-150 seaters floating around diluting the market.


User currently offlineWeb From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4119 times:

I think both A and B have bigger aspirations than the soon-to-be overcrowded 100-seat market (cough A350 cough A380 cough 787 cough).

User currently offlineMD90fan From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4118 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
The poor sales of the A318 and B767-600 will keep Airbus and Boeing executives from pursuing smaller aircraft.

You mean 737-600 right?? add to that list 717  Smile


User currently offlinePPVRA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4113 times:

Quoting 797 (Thread starter):
Immagine this world-class manufacturers building advanced RJs!

And what makes you think that Embraer and Bombarider are not world-class manufacturers?  Smile

Quoting NorthStarDC4M (Reply 2):
Bombardier and EMBRAER will fight it out for the unser 120 seat classes, and Boeing and Airbus will keep going from there.

Embraer is, and maybe BBD will too soon, have a taste of the "filet" of the aircraft industry: The 100-200 seat market. I believe both will be tempted to go bigger. The risks are great, no doubt, but it can be done.

Cheers


User currently offlineZephyr98 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4109 times:

Quoting NorthStarDC4M:
"Even IF Boeing or Airbus entered the market with a RJ design, it would still be fighting the EMBARER and/or Bombardier products for every order, and i think Boeing or Airbus would have a very hard time competing with the other 2 due to cost of production problems, production spin up time and market saturation. Truth is the 100 seater market will be overloaded in 5-6 years, just like the 50 seat market is now, perhaps even more so as there will be more used 120-150 seaters floating around diluting the market."

Agree 110%...I think Airbus and Boeing are both looking to bettering their larger aircraft. BTW, there is on NBC news coming up in a few minutes going to be a story on the future of air travel, titled, "The bigger the better." Pacific Time....should be very interesting.


User currently offlineODwyerPW From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4076 times:

Boeing's fixed cost are too high. they couldn't price it cheaply enough to compete.

the same reason American Car companies can't produce a profitable small car.


User currently offlineLastordu From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4038 times:

Quoting NorthStarDC4M (Reply 2):
Both the 737 and 32x families are far too heavy to be considered RJ compitition,

That is not totally true. If you look at the A318 (witch as far as I know is in the 32x family) on front page on this site, you will see in TYPE says that it is a 100 seat regional airliner.

Nick


User currently offlineNDSchu777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4032 times:

The RJ market is pretty crowded now with just Embraer and Bombardier. But it will be even more crowded in the near future with the Chinese working on the ARJ21 and the Russians developing their own RJ. With that market soon to be fought over by 4 airframers, I don't see Boeing and Airbus wanting to get anywhere near that bloodbath. They seem to be busy enough fighting each other over the large commercial markets.

~Nick


User currently offlineWhiteHatter From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4007 times:

Quoting ODwyerPW (Reply 7):
Boeing's fixed cost are too high. they couldn't price it cheaply enough to compete.

about time someone came up with the real reason Embraer does so well. Their cost base is much lower in Brazil and they can churn out quality products at the right price.

It's a winning combination which other companies like Boeing would struggle to emulate. Even Bombardier has a hard job matching Embraer gate prices for equivalent aircraft. What it does possibly mean is that should Embraer decide to break the 100 seat barrier they will be a serious contender with an established client list.

I really don't see any market penetration for the Russian or Chinese products any time soon for the same reason the superb Tu-204 family hasn't sold outside Russia in any numbers. Embraer has the advantage with its business contacts to bag a lot of new work, and Brazil is a good place to build jets.


User currently offlineMidnightMike From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3986 times:

Expect to see the next new version of the 737NG to be offered in 3 sizes, small, medium, large. The small version will be in the less than 100 seat market. Using the technology from the 787 program, it will be possible for Boeing to produce a true small version of the 737, rather than a shrunk version, with a different wing. Figure around 2012-2014 there are going to be a bunch of RJ type aircraft that are going to need replacing. Just the opinion of a crazy man  Smile

User currently offlineN766UA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3974 times:

They'd fail. The RJ market is already saturated.

User currently offlineATCT From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3933 times:

Yea I agree with N766UA, I believe the Regional/Commuter market is saturated.

You got Bombardier (DHC, CRJ), Embraer, and Beech (1900) churning out new planes daily.

On the second hand market BAe/ARJ, Dornier, Saab, Metro/Merlin, Jetstream, and the above mentioned company aircraft are plentiful.

I think the market is pretty saturated (Not mentioning the Caravans, C402, new Entry's Pilatus, Kodiak, and Gippsland).



ATCT


User currently offlineSlarty From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3919 times:

I thought with the proposed intro. of this puppy that Airbus was already capturing the market ...


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 Smile


User currently offline797 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3850 times:

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 5):
Quoting 797 (Thread starter):
Immagine this world-class manufacturers building advanced RJs!

And what makes you think that Embraer and Bombarider are not world-class manufacturers?

Haha, sorry man, I wanted to make a clear comparisson. We all know that the two big guys are B and A... But, let me tell you... I'll have my own airline some day, and so far, I'll only have EMBRAERs! I'm in love with'm!

Regards


User currently offlineGARPD From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 3771 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
The poor sales of the A318 and B767-600 will keep Airbus and Boeing executives from pursuing smaller aircraft.

With all due respect, the A318 and 736 do not need to "sell well".
They are derivatives of a family and are designed to operate alongside their stable mates such as the 73g, 738 or A319 or A320.
The sale of these examples would not really influence a decision by either A or B on entering the RJ market.  Smile


User currently offlineLumberton From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (9 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3693 times:

I believe Boeing tested the waters in this segment, with turboprops, in the 1980's by entering into a JV (or purchase) with de Havilland of Canada. I'm doing this from memory, but the effort didn't pan out. Maybe some of the Canadian a.netters can shed some more light on this.

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