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AA Not Expanding?  
User currently offline764 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 623 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 4852 times:

Looking at DL and CO expanding heavily on the transatlantic market and UA weaving a new route network to Central and South America (while obviously reducing capacities to Europe), AA seems to be rather hesitant. Ther have not been any significant announcements recently (at least not as far as I remember).

Will we see some expansion soon or are they simply incapable of doing it (lack of equipment or something like that). It seems to me that they will have to do something in order to keep up with the others in the high-yield international markets.

41 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 1, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 4844 times:

AA is being very conservative, very prudent, very cautious here. In the last four years since 9/11, AA has grown a huge aversion to anything even resembling risk, as they don't have money to play with like years ago. AA cannot afford missteps. Thus, they are letting CO basically do all the route exploration risk-taking, with RJs to Mexico and then 757s to Europe, and then following their lead when the time is right.

User currently offlineBigGSFO From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2910 posts, RR: 6
Reply 2, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4810 times:

AA is more interested in earning a profit with their current network for now, or so it appears. You can bet they have plans for expansion but only when the time is right for them do so. I for one would love to see an announcement about launching new markets, new non-stops, new aircraft order, etc. However they are being cautious and rightfully so.

With that being said any new international expansion, if I had to guess, would be with 757's across the Atlantic (from BOS, ORD or JFK) or down to deep South America (from MIA).


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 3, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4778 times:

Since 9/11, AA has cut back quite a bit....their SCJ "hub" (or whatever its called) has been scaled back massively...gone are the days AA was flying to TPE, CDG,etc out of SJC. Their only international flight out of SJC now is NRT.

BOS has seen a scale down also..which is unfortunate, maybe if they restart some routes, BOS will be included.

Their latest big route to end is ORD-NGO...the Y yields were good, but because of the loss of the Toyota motors contracts to UA, they decided it wasn't worth it, as fuel costs was eroding profits....maybe if they get a more fuel efficient plane, they will restart that route....cough, cough...787.. biggrin 



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32581 posts, RR: 72
Reply 4, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 4644 times:

Quoting 764 (Thread starter):
nd UA weaving a new route network to Central and South America (while obviously reducing capacities to Europe),

UA isn't weaving anything. In the past few years UA has:

1) Ended JFK-GRU and MIA-GRU
2) Ended JFK-EZE and MIA-EZE; made ORD-EZE seasonal
3) Ended all service to CCS and SCL
4) Made GIG service a GRU tag-on
5) Will end all service to SJO in December; at one point they were flying IAD-SJO, LAX-GUA-SJO, and ORD-SJO.

The only thing they have "added" is IAD-GRU/EZE, but that has simply been moving capacity from one gateway to another.



a.
User currently offlineTWA902fly From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 3121 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 4573 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4):
UA isn't weaving anything. In the past few years UA has:

1) Ended JFK-GRU and MIA-GRU
2) Ended JFK-EZE and MIA-EZE; made ORD-EZE seasonal
3) Ended all service to CCS and SCL
4) Made GIG service a GRU tag-on
5) Will end all service to SJO in December; at one point they were flying IAD-SJO, LAX-GUA-SJO, and ORD-SJO.

The only thing they have "added" is IAD-GRU/EZE, but that has simply been moving capacity from one gateway to another.

Couple things - first SJO is ending but UA has expressed (in their press release) that they intend to start LIR (my guess is Ted) service in the future. Also ORD-EZE did not exist before the MIA 'hub' closed. They have streamlined their operations in South America - in my eyes a set up for possible expansion, and if anything a move towards profitability Do not forget IAD-GRU is flown twice a day on some days of the week. I think what they have done is made South America work for them

Now for other comments - If the US/Brazil bilateral ever changes... i can see AA jumping on 757 or even 738 service to many cities in Northern and Northeast Brazil. Including possibly SSA MAO NAT FOR REC etc... a CO-style-757 could make it as far as MIA-CNF.

'902



life wasn't worth the balance, or the crumpled paper it was written on
User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 6, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 4514 times:

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 5):
Also ORD-EZE did not exist before the MIA 'hub' closed.

Incorrect. Before 9/11, UA was flying daily from EZE to JFK, MIA and ORD, all simoultaneously, plus the ORD-MVD sector continued on to MVD. Today, they are down to daily IAD-EZE-MVD, and seasonal ORD-EZE.

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 5):
in my eyes a set up for possible expansion ... and if anything a move towards profitability

Profitability, perhaps, but not expansion. UA has been doing nothing but shrinking in South America for the last five years. First they cut LIM and CCS, then SCL and the GIG nonstops, then GRU and EZE lost flights. UA has largely given up on having any kind of a meaningful presence on the South American continent. They have gone from being the #2 airline to South America to being #4, behind CO and DL.

However, all that being said, if UA feels that they were sustaining losses in South America and couldn't turn the ship around, and thus cutting those routes was the only way to make the continent profitable for them, then more power to them. They are doing what it takes to make money -- good for them.


User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 7, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 4468 times:

There have been many rumors suggesting that AA will be the next carrier to make a trans-atlantic expansion, using winglet-equipped 757s on routes out of JFK and BOS (similiar to the approach that CO has used out of EWR)....some routes have been added (ie, BOS-MAN) and JFK-NCL has been announced. AA recently ordered winglets for 20 757 airframes, so this project is in the development stage, time will tell whether AA will be as successful with this strategy as AA's potentional European flights out of BOS and JFK will rely more on O&D traffic (as neither is a true hub city for AA) - CO has had the advantage of launching its new flights out of a major hub.

AA also is looking at using the winglet equipped 757s on certain routes from MIA to Latin America - AA is very interested in launching nonstops from MIA to Brazilian cities such as Natal, Manaus, Recife and San Salvador with the 757Ws, but first progress must be made on the bi-lateral treaties between the US and Brazil which are quite restrictive (there was talk that regulations would be eased on services to cities other than GIG and GRU). Flights to these cities (and others) would surely be a success......AA's track record in Latin America is remarkable.

As for UA, they have dropped most of their Latin American route network - competing with AA out of MIA is a difficult task. UA never really developed a solid hub operation at MIA to support the Latin American departures, and using IAD and ORD as latin american gateways is a very difficult proposition. UA has not grown much accross the Atlantic either - UA has been moderately successful out of IAD, but IAD also has its limitations: its not the strongest hub in the UA network, the entire I-Air situation at IAD did not help UA at that airport, and IAD is not NYC when it comes to O&D traffic. UA has gone through an extremely difficult period with the prolonged bankrupty proceeding which has not helped expansion plans, combined with the well known fact that UA is short on longhaul aircraft........UA's resources are limited and they do have the very important pacific network to maintain. UA may have missed some expansion opportunities, but they have been focused on simply keeping the airline flying.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32581 posts, RR: 72
Reply 8, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 4418 times:

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 5):
Couple things - first SJO is ending but UA has expressed (in their press release) that they intend to start LIR (my guess is Ted) service in the future

ORD-LIR starts in December. What was 15 weekly flights to San Jose is going to become one weekly flight to Liberia. That is not expansion.

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 5):
Also ORD-EZE did not exist before the MIA 'hub' closed.

Yes, it indeed did. United flew daily from Buenos Aires to O'Hare, Miami, and JFK before 9.11. ORD-EZE ended as a result of 9.11. Re-started in October 2004, then suspended again this past June. It is back on in December.

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 5):
Do not forget IAD-GRU is flown twice a day on some days of the week

Only for the purpose of holding US-Brazil slots.



a.
User currently offlineDL Widget Head From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2083 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 4159 times:

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 5):
Also ORD-EZE did not exist before the MIA 'hub' closed.

I remember seeing a pair of UA 747's arrive MIA every morning; one from EZE the other from GRU. I think they went to 777's after that on those routes.


User currently offlineTWA902fly From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 3121 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 4139 times:

K guys, i was wrong about ORD-EZE. Anyways they have the presence they want (UA does), so i guess that is good. And through GRU they can feed at least some traffic from other South American cities.

'902



life wasn't worth the balance, or the crumpled paper it was written on
User currently offlineKahala777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3945 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4):
UA isn't weaving anything. In the past few years UA has:

1) Ended JFK-GRU and MIA-GRU
2) Ended JFK-EZE and MIA-EZE; made ORD-EZE seasonal
3) Ended all service to CCS and SCL
4) Made GIG service a GRU tag-on
5) Will end all service to SJO in December; at one point they were flying IAD-SJO, LAX-GUA-SJO, and ORD-SJO.

The only thing they have "added" is IAD-GRU/EZE, but that has simply been moving capacity from one gateway to another.

United Airlines is simply reorganizing its fleet to be cost efficient in todays market. United Airlines is no longer looking to fly routes for the prestige of it. The days of JFK-LHR are numbered from what has been discussed as of late. United Airlines is getting down to business and working harder and harder in the markets that allow them the greatest cost incentive. Of example is the fact of United Airlines reducing its presence in Latin and South America. Latin and South America, has proven to be less that money making when it comes to the premium cabins. United has taken the 777's that were flown on South America routes, and is now flying them on high yielding and premium service driven routes such as SFO-NGO, SFO-PEK, ORD-PVG.

American Airlines, is doing the same as United Airlines. Only in reverse. American Airlines, has seen that it has a very hard time breaking into the Asian market as is the case with:

BOS-NRT - Slots were granted, and service never commenced.
DFW-KIX - Service started, and was cancelled. To be returned in 2006.
HNL-NRT - Service was rumored, yet has anything to be seen.
ORD-NGO - Service started, and has been pulled from the AA network.
SEA-NRT - Service started, and was ended several years later.
SJC-TPE - Service started, and ended with the eclipse of 9-11.

American Airlines is sticking to its Latin American network, where they are the leader, followed closely by Continental Airlines, and then Delta Airlines. American Airlines has the strongest following of any airline in Latin America. As can be seen, American Airlines is dedicated to Latin America, the same way in which United Airlines is dedicated to Asia and Australia.

KAHALA777


User currently offlineIloveboeing From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 791 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3910 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 2):
With that being said any new international expansion, if I had to guess, would be with 757's across the Atlantic (from BOS, ORD or JFK) or down to deep South America (from MIA).

What about HKG? I know that CO, NW, and UA go there......but AA does not. I know they'll be going into PVG next year, but isn't there a potential in HKG as well?


User currently offlineKahala777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3799 times:

Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 12):
What about HKG?

American Airlines is more than happy with the Cathay Pacific codeshare at current. Cathay Pacific allows for more than enought lift for American Airlines clientele from North America.

The following is a listing of Cathay Pacific from North America to Asia:

Los Angeles to Hong Kong
747-400 x 3

New York to Hong Kong
A340-600

New York to Vancouver to Hong Kong
A340-300, A340-600, or 747-400

San Francisco to Hong Kong
747-400

Toronto to Anchorage to Hong Kong
A340-300

The following flights are operated by other airlines from North America:

Chicago to Hong Kong - United Airlines
747-400 x 2

Newark to Hong Kong - Continental Airlines
777-200

San Francisco to Hong Kong - United Airlnes
747-400

San Francisco to Hong Kong - Singapore Airlines
747-400

Toronto to Hong Kong - Air Canada
A340-500

Vancouver to Hong Kong - Air Canada
A340-300

The question is... Can American Airlines afford to expend a 777 on a non proven Asian route, yet again? Less we need to remember Taipei, Osaka, and Nagoya!

KAHALA777


User currently offlineHunUtazo From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 235 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3525 times:

CAL/ual

AMR/nwac

SWA/?



dude
User currently offlineJetdeltamsy From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 2987 posts, RR: 8
Reply 15, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3507 times:

Quoting Commavia (Reply 1):
AA is being very conservative, very prudent, very cautious here.

Indeed they are. AA is being VERY smart. All of this international expansion that is going on may backfire. If the number of seats increases too much, there will be a glut of seats and the same thing that is happening in the US domestic market will happen in the international arena.

As AA has a business model that is almost profitable (and that's saying someting in today's environment), they are very smart not to tinker with it too much.



Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
User currently offlineIloveboeing From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 791 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3454 times:

Quoting Kahala777 (Reply 13):
The question is... Can American Airlines afford to expend a 777 on a non proven Asian route, yet again? Less we need to remember Taipei, Osaka, and Nagoya!

Taipei......Yeah, I read that they tried to serve Taipei in 2001. I haven't been able to find out why it failed. Do you know why? Thanks.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21458 posts, RR: 60
Reply 17, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3413 times:

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 15):
Indeed they are. AA is being VERY smart. All of this international expansion that is going on may backfire. If the number of seats increases too much, there will be a glut of seats and the same thing that is happening in the US domestic market will happen in the international aren

Well, considering CO is not adding any aircraft to "expand" these ops (okay, 2 772ERs, but not for Europe, and a few 753s to serve some domestic/vacation routes), the backfiring is not likely. CO is shifting loads away from main routes, then downsizing those routes a bit, then using aircraft elsewhere. Rather than connect and codeshare, COs plan seems to be "anywhere from EWR" which is not a bad plan. And since they aren't buying planes to do it, it's cost effective.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineCjpark From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1248 posts, RR: 6
Reply 18, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3388 times:

Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 16):
Taipei......Yeah, I read that they tried to serve Taipei in 2001. I haven't been able to find out why it failed. Do you know why? Thanks.

They stopped flying that route after 9-11.



"Any airline that wants to serve the [region] can go to DFW today and fly anywhere they want," WN spokesman Ed Stewart
User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4535 posts, RR: 18
Reply 19, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3390 times:

AA is doing the right thing. These other airlines are making huge mistakes. The international market right now is as it should be. There are plenty of travel options but not too many. The flights are leaving full from my experience and the rates are high enough for the flights to be profitable. So why on earth would anyone want to flood that market with new flights and turn it in to the mess that the domestic system currently is? I guess they weren't happy with one phase of their business being profitable. They feel the need to kill that as well.


Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 20, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3249 times:

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 15):
All of this international expansion that is going on may backfire. If the number of seats increases too much, there will be a glut of seats and the same thing that is happening in the US domestic market will happen in the international arena.

Indeed. In the Q3 conference call, AA's Arpey and Beer touched breefly on their basic concern that with all the enormous expansion plans for Europe next summer (CO adding several cities, DL adding 11 routes, etc.) Europe could become saturated, driving yields down. AA, IMO, is being much more prudent by only putting its toe in the water with 757s to Europe, and seeing how it goes, and in the mean time focusing on its core international market strength, Latin America.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11409 posts, RR: 59
Reply 21, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 3151 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 7):
AA also is looking at using the winglet equipped 757s on certain routes from MIA to Latin America - AA is very interested in launching nonstops from MIA to Brazilian cities such as Natal, Manaus, Recife and San Salvador with the 757Ws

Delta announce its interest in Brazil's World Tourism Conference to fly a 4th daily flight to other city in Brazil (not Rio or São Paulo).
A little correction, the name of city is only Salvador.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 20):
AA, IMO, is being much more prudent by only putting its toe in the water with 757s to Europe, and seeing how it goes, and in the mean time focusing on its core international market strength, Latin America.

Agree 100% with you. And also AA is facing a extremely very good summer in South America this year. Bookings and sellings in Brazil are at least 18% up from last year, there are virtually no availability for the most dates, and some consulates like Rio de Janeiro, it's impossible to be interviewed for a US Visa before March, 06. (Sao Paulo and Brasilia keep available for january 06 and november 05). I expect to see AA improving Brazil with more 777 services, replacing some 767 frequencies in order to add seats while the bilateral keeps unchanged. Probably other countries are facing the same !

Regards
Felipe



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32581 posts, RR: 72
Reply 22, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 3134 times:

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 21):
I expect to see AA improving Brazil with more 777 services, replacing some 767 frequencies in order to add seats while the bilateral keeps unchanged.

Not happening. The only reason AA doesn't fly more 777s to Brazil is because they don't have enough 777s to go around, and it is more important to send them to London, Buenos Aires, and Asia. If it weren't for their lack of 777s, you would see AA 777s on the 2nd daily MIA-GRU and MIA-EZE redeye, JFK-EZE, and MIA-SCL. With ORD-NGO going away, though, the 2nd MIA-EZE redeye is probably going to be a 777 again.



a.
User currently offlineCarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2939 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 2988 times:

AA is re-starting DFW-KIX tomorrow (11/1).

User currently offlineLACA773 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 4002 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2413 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Isn't AA expanding or starting new service from LAX to Centeral America [i.e., SJO, GUA, SAL]???

LACA773


25 BigGSFO : Is there any more thinking in taking their frequencies currently used for the 2nd MIA-GIG and using them for a new Brasilian city, such as Brasilia?
26 Kanebear : Does DEL not count as an expansion? After all, AA is starting up ORD-DEL mid-november.
27 LipeGIG : No. In fact after the high season on march, AA will increase the Daily light GRU-MIA to daily (using 2 frequencies from GIG-MIA) and also increase GR
28 PRAirbus : Who says AA is not expanding in some ways? They are doing it carefully. Start-up dates: ORD-DEL 11/06 DFW-KIX 11/06 STL-PVR 02/06 DFW-MBJ 02/06 DFW-LI
29 Kahala777 : American Airlines, is in the best position of any U.S. airline at current. American Airlines, is taking a backseat to the rest of the industry when i
30 BigGSFO : I have heard DFW-NRT is a money maker, however KIX is a different story altogther. Anybod have any insight on advance bookings, advance yield etc.? T
31 Commavia : DFW-NRT is, indeed, a successful route. AA does well on it. Apparently, DFW-KIX advance bookings are not bad for a new flight, but not stellar either
32 Kahala777 : There is not enough premium traffic in the Miami-Madrid market. At best it would have to be a high density seasonal trade out with a 767-300. AT curr
33 Commavia : Oh, sure there is -- especially now that IB cut their frequencies on the route, and especially as AA's MAD-MIA-MAD flights are a nexus to and from La
34 BigGSFO : Given AA's relationship with IB, is there any talk of reinstating DFW-MAD?
35 Kahala777 : Oh, there is so much premium traffic that Iberia has gone to a two class product! Phenomenal.... Then why has Air France pulled the plug on DFW-CDG,
36 MAH4546 : DFW-KIX has a lucrative cargo contract that will keep it in the black. MIA-CDG is AA's strongest performing Paris route thanks to a large number of f
37 Commavia : As with many markets, comparing IB's J product with other premium products is a bit disingenuous. IB's J product would be considered F in the U.S., a
38 Carpethead : DFW-KIX can now be supported fully by the pending join-up of JL in oneWorld. Also it seems the folks at KIX are pitching a SJC-KIX route to AA, but I
39 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I would like to see them fly ORD/JFK-DXB..but it's not going to happen soon....
40 MIASkies : Must agree... I have flown both IB and AA on the MIA-MAD route and these flights are always packed... economy and business (first? whatever you want
41 Ckfred : It seems to me that AA is playing wait and see with its 3 legacy competitors, UA, DL, and NW, that are in Chapter 11. It appears that UA will exit Cha
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