Hjulicher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Posted (8 years 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 4743 times:
Once the RRJ is fully implemented and built, what do you suppose will happen to the Russian Aerospace Industry? Do you see this aircraft being a sucess in the west? Will it be able to compete with the new embraer jets. Do you forsee these jets being sold in the west? Insight and speculation is the purpose of this discussion forum.
Basically, all I'm asking for is some insight about these aircraft. (You may be wondering why I have the russian flag decal but am asking this question. I searched the database and their hasn't been a discussion about the RRJ. I'm a dual citizen, but I chose to use the Russian flag moniker).
No way. At least not for a long time. People don't feel as safe on Russian aircraft as they do on western equipment. It would take years of safe operation before their aircraft would begin gaining acceptance in the west.
I'm not saying the perception is valid, but it's a reality the Russian Aerospace industry has to deal with.
Supa7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 2, posted (8 years 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4672 times:
Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 1): No way. At least not for a long time. People don't feel as safe on Russian aircraft as they do on western equipment. It would take years of safe operation before their aircraft would begin gaining acceptance in the west.
I'm not saying the perception is valid, but it's a reality the Russian Aerospace industry has to deal with.
While I do not disagree, this is a bit odd to say because Russia is extremely advanced in aircraft design and production. They have aircraft track records and experience far FAR greater than a place such as Brazil. I feel even Brazilians would agree with this.
If we can trust the EMB-170 (and we can) it is time to accept a modern Russian jetliner. It's a world market, folks. Russians have been at this a long LONG time and they know what they are doing. For a competitive price, I do believe Russian builders have a future... someday. Especially if they use GE and RR engines.
HZ747300 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 3, posted (8 years 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 4616 times:
I contend 95-97% of the world's population does not care what plane they are on, nor do they know. They would be oblivious walking down the jetway as they took their seat on the RRJ, TU154, or whatever it is, most people don't have a checklist of models they want to fly. They just want to get there safely.
That said, what the Russian companies have to prove is that they can maintain a production line and have global availability for spare parts. The Russian aircraft manufacturers are going to have to fight to prove their products can succeed in a large scale worldwide operating fleet. It is more of a logistics issue, than a perception issue.
Boeing has partnered with Russian manufacturers which help with credibility, and Western powerplants will help drive interest from Western airlines. People are probably watching how the 35 plane sale to TNT from Tupolev goes then it may start to pick up momentum.
Western powerplants won't mean much to the general population, my guess is if you survey all the passengers on any flight less than 10% will know what type of engines are powering the plane, not accounting for lucky guesses.
Concentriq From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 6, posted (8 years 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4530 times:
succeed they will, i hope. i posted a comment about it a few days ago, but noone seemed to want to take a stab at it. My thinking is that if RRJ does not succeed, this will pretty much be the end of the aircraft industry in FSU, considering that not even domestic carriers want to buy russian (and ukranian) made planes. i REALLY hope it will not come down to that.
Beaucaire From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 7, posted (8 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4504 times:
Sukhoi should start by setting up a network uf associated support-companies .
Customers refrain from buying russian aircraft ,since the service- capabilities and air-frame knowledge among foreign service companies is nil.
Suppose an airline in Spain or Mexico is buying RRJ gear -if there are problems who will service the aircraft?
Russian built engines have service exclusively in Russia or Ukrain-that means expensive to maintain .
Once the service-aspect of any russian built airframe is improved,the sales situation will change.From a technical point I think the RRJ will become a top-technology aircraft with competetive passenger seat-milecost.If the price-performance ratio is OK,no reason not to consider Sukhoi or ,Antonov's or Tupolev's
Jeb94 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 8, posted (8 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4479 times:
Antonov, Tupolev, Illyushin, and Sukhoi have all been around for some time. Antonov, Tupolev, and Illyushin in particular have a long history of producing airliners and other large aircraft. Sukhoi has designed and built some of the most advanced military aircraft in the world. Antonov and Tupolev have built some of the largest aircraft in the world throughout history. Some of the stigma that Russian aircraft builders face comes from their successful designs for the Russian market. These aircraft are very rugged yet crude compared to their western counterparts. This was due to the need to operate from crude airstrips. Now they need to catch up a bit in technology by automating their cockpits and generally making the aircraft less manpower intensive and more fuel effecient. This will happen and probably sooner rather than later in my opinion.
A300 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 10, posted (8 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 4461 times:
We need the Russian and Ukranian aircraft. Countries like Iran and Cuba are in bad shape beacuse of the US embargo on commercial aircraft. I have flown on the Tu-154M of Iran Air Tour and Mahan Air several times. They feel very similar to the B727-200. In fact, I feel safer in an Iran Air Tour 10 year old Tu-154M than a 30 year old Iran Air B727-286A. I am flying both of these types next week! Next month, I hope to fly the Mahan Air Tu-204. The CIS avaition industry has an image problem that needs to be fixed with better support (as mentioned before by others).
1) Bad media publicity. Let's take an example and say that KLM won't be able to get updated Fokker's and will instead replace them with the Russian RJ. That would instantly be on the news in the Netherlands and all over the Europe: "Air France - KLM will buy Russian airplanes." If a journalist has previous negative experiences with any one of those airlines, he will milk this story for what it's worth. "Thousands of AF-KLM pax will fly with the Russian airplanes every day. Sukhoi, which has never made passenger airplanes before, has a shoddy record for their military airplanes. X airplanes out of Y planes produced of the Su-35 have crashed so far." The result would be that AF-KLM would lose lots of Russo-phobian pax who would be afraid of flying that jet. Will KL (or any other Western carrier) take that risk?
2) Dispatch reliability. Aeroflot is not very happy with the dispatch reliability of the IL-96, which is the most modern Russian airliner today. I think that before any major Western carrier will sign up for the RRJ, they will want to see it in service for several years first, to make sure that it's performing okay.
3) Availability of spare parts, as already mentioned.
BAtriple7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 12, posted (8 years 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 4361 times:
In the end, price wins out - if fares are low, pax will fly. Look at the DC10 - that got massive amounts of bad publicity but pax still flew on them. Studies show that air crashes have fairly little long-term effect on pax numbers.
Back on topic, I hope the RRJ is successful - can't wait to see more Russian airliners in the EU!
Lumberton From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 14, posted (8 years 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 4335 times:
So far all the comments have addressed the image of Russian aircraft, logistics, safety, etc. All very important considerations, but is there a M-A-R-K-E-T? This aircraft will go head to head with Embraer and the C-Series (if it's built). From everything I've read on the internet, this is a fine aircraft, with an excellent engine from Powerjet (a JV of SNECMA and NPO Saturn). Who will buy them? I think Aeroflot is about to sign an agreement for 30, but this thing needs to sell outside Russia to be a success. Don't forget that Antonov and Tupolov are also building aircraft in this segment.
Hjulicher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 15, posted (8 years 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 4255 times:
Quoting Concentriq (Reply 6): this will pretty much be the end of the aircraft industry in FSU, considering that not even domestic carriers want to buy russian (and ukranian) made planes. i REALLY hope it will not come down to that.
I don't think that domestic operators are opposed to buying russian aircraft, I just think that they're not competitive with western planes in areas like fuel efficiency. Therefore, it makes sense for Russian airlines to operate western fleets. Also, if somebody from the west decided to fly aeroflot, they would hold better regard of aeroflot, if they flew on a western jet. Most passengers do know what they're flying on, and the condition of the interior is very important. The safety card says what airplane it is.
I know many of these planes will be bought by the russian companies since they need to operate so many russian planes so that they're not taxed by the government. I see a large market just to begin in Russia.
Is it really speculated that the cost might be equivolent to that of embraer? Labor is relatively low in Russia, so I can't see that this airplane, small as it is, would cost so much, especially with all the money the government is contributing. Anyways, the russian aerospace industry never did infiltrate into the west, so the RRJ is making new head way and is totally new territory for the russian manufacuters.
If KLM were to purchase the RRJ, I understand the risk that they would take with publicity, but for all those flying with KLM, how many can be russophobic. Additionally, what is the likelihood that the passengers will actually know that they're flying on an RRJ. The interior will be completely in line with western airframes. KLM exploits the Fokker100 but, but it's not like it's a vital airframe for their fleet. They use it on this short routes throughout northwestern europe.
Jetdeltamsy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 16, posted (8 years 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 4102 times:
Quoting HZ747300 (Reply 3): I contend 95-97% of the world's population does not care what plane they are on, nor do they know. They would be oblivious walking down the jetway as they took their seat on the RRJ, TU154, or whatever it is, most people don't have a checklist of models they want to fly. They just want to get there safely.
I think you're wrong. Why does Aeroflot fly western jets to the west almost exclusively? It's because of public perception about the equipment.
N276AASTT From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 22, posted (8 years 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 3938 times:
To me, it's all about the performance of the aircraft (fuel and flight), CASM's, low down time, high dispatch rate, etc. If the a/c can deliver what the company says or exceed their expectations, then I say it has a chance to succeed. If I were an airline CEO, I'd be looking at that. Will the a/c keep me in the "Black" or bring me into the "Red."
DarthRandall From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 23, posted (8 years 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 3906 times:
If KLM were to pick them up, it would be a huge coup. It would expose them to not just executives from Air France, but also to those companys that are in the same alliance. It's a small step toward the greater goal of getting more international recognition. Who knows? Five years down the road Northwest may be looking for some newer regionals. Then, while they're discussing which company to pursue--Embraer or Bombardier--one of the executives who has recently been to Europe chimes in about how pleased the folks at KLM seem to be with their RRJs. I know, pie-in-the-sky, but wouldn't it be neat?
Jetdeltamsy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 24, posted (8 years 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 3880 times:
Quoting Supa7e7 (Reply 17): Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 16):
It's because of public perception about the equipment.
You are clueless. It has nothing to do with public perception, whatever that is.
Hmmmm. Let's see. I have earned my living in this industry (in various management and non-management capacities) since before you were born. I have an advanced degree in economics. I have read internal reports regarding customer perception involving Eastern Bloc carriers (specifically Aeroflot) when Delta was forging close ties with the carrier.
I have a clue.
25 Art: I agree. Many less well informed pax have only really heard of Boeing or perhaps have only really heard of Airbus. Many better informed pax are aware
26 Lumberton: Sorry to be a pain, but as I asked in Post #14, where is the market for these (undoubtedly) very fine aircraft?
27 Supa7E7: Same as the market for Brazilian aircraft. It's very very large.
28 Lightsaber: Huge! If an aircraft is sitting waiting for parts you have a customer fuming while swearing your product will *never* be purchased again. Embraer and
29 WhiteHatter: Not always, the availability of spares and support is a major factor. The average punter could not care less what he gets on as long as it flies. The
30 Lumberton: Sorry, Supa7E7, I can't buy that. On Sukhoi's web site, it lists the variants as RRJ 60/75/95 seaters, unless I am totally reading this wrong. The E-
31 Concentriq: absolutely agree. regardless of what is being said about public perception, I was merely pointing out the fact that this project is a very big chance
32 Supa7E7: Fair enough. Sorry for the name calling, dad. Note that many on this thread disagree with your point, Aeroflot story notwithstanding I said the marke
33 Art: Is it? Will it? I thought I saw data in FI recently showing a fall off in this sector accompanied by an increase in demand for turboprops. Please do
34 Jetdeltamsy: I don't know if you're wrong or not. But Northwest's just cancelled their contract with partner, Mesaba, for SAAB 340 service.
35 Crjflyer35: Yeah, bud didn't that have to do more with Northwest's current fiscal situation more than the current market for Turbo-props or RJ's??
36 TheSorcerer: Antonov have been an RJ, the An-148 Initial model with seat between 70 and 80 pax and have a range of 1,080-1,600nm. seating is 3-aisle-2. It's got a
37 DarthRandall: Personally, I think the time is right for an RJ boom. The new Embraers are outstanding planes with the range and economics to connect smaller cities l
38 PPVRA: Hows the development going? The article says first flight in 2006 and EIS 2007, but I haven't really heard anything about progress. Any updates? Cheer
39 Hjulicher: Under my understanding, I think the Russian government is subsidizing many of the costs for producing this aircraft, and with all the support the RRJ
40 PPVRA: You throw the word "subsidizing" in and you attract many question marks as well, the main one being "Why is the government giving subsidies?" If you
41 Art: From the article: "Boeing is responsible for marketing activities (including sales and leasing) and after sales support (including operational logisti
42 BR715-A1-30: Safety Cards... FINAL ASSEMBLY OF THIS AIRCRAFT COMPLETED IN BRAZIL
43 DarthRandall: If marketing comes through (I guess Boeing is doing that if I understand right?), there's no reason that western carriers would not buy it, barring u
44 AirbusA6: Why is there the RRJ AND the Antonov 148. Aren't they in the same market. Also, what ever happened to the Tupolev 334? The 100 seater from 10 years ag
45 Stall: Most passengers won't care about what type/manufacturer. As long as the plane 'look safe' they will fly on it. The biggest hurdle for the Russian avia
46 Lumberton: IMO, you hit on the crux of the problem for Russian manufacturers. There is absolutely nothing wrong with their airframes, it's the maintenance-inten
47 HiFi: Just a minor correction... Design and final assembly in Brazil.