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787/350: Orders And Delivery Dates  
User currently offlineDavid31998 From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 79 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3911 times:

Most delivery slots for the first few years of 787 production are already taken and A350 production does not begin until two years after that of the 787. So, at this point, future customers for either plane cannot get deliveries within the next few years. Boeing will try to speed up 787 production to more than one plane every three days to shorten the order to delivery time. The question:

1. Is long-term efficiency/economics the primary consideration by airlines when selecting either the 787/350? and/or

2. Will airlines order a less desirable model if they can get a much earlier delivery date? If so, this will have a equalizing effect on long-term orders. If one model is selling much better than the other, its delivery time will become progressively longer than the other, creating a competitive disadvantage.

12 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3760 times:

Quoting David31998 (Thread starter):
Will airlines order a less desirable model if they can get a much earlier delivery date? If

The A330 nearly outsold the 787 in China this year..


User currently offlineFlyAUA From Austria, joined May 2005, 4604 posts, RR: 56
Reply 2, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3741 times:

Quoting David31998 (Thread starter):
2. Will airlines order a less desirable model if they can get a much earlier delivery date? If so, this will have a equalizing effect on long-term orders. If one model is selling much better than the other, its delivery time will become progressively longer than the other, creating a competitive disadvantage.

I don't think a year or two play(s) that big a role. Airlines will buy the aircraft which better suits their existing fleet, and more importantly, their needs!



Not drinking, also isn't a solution!
User currently offlineWhiteHatter From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3739 times:

Quoting David31998 (Thread starter):
Boeing will try to speed up 787 production to more than one plane every three days to shorten the order to delivery time

Boeing may have production issues before they can start confirming dates to anyone. The QF comments were very telling, namely that composites are causing Boeing all sorts of issues.

A slippage might well come into play here unless they can put those problems to bed quickly and efficiently. Contract clauses regarding late delivery would then come into play, and push any new orders even further back along the calendar. Flight testing will be another minefield due to the new materials being used, as there is little relevant data available on composite construction of large aircraft.


User currently offlineFlyAUA From Austria, joined May 2005, 4604 posts, RR: 56
Reply 4, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3707 times:

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 3):
The QF comments were very telling, namely that composites are causing Boeing all sorts of issues.

Any chance you could IM me those? I am quite interested in checking out a link if you have one, without turning this thread into an AvB fest. Thanks  Smile



Not drinking, also isn't a solution!
User currently offlineShenzhen From United States of America, joined Jun 2003, 1710 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3691 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 1):
e A330 nearly outsold the 787 in China this year..

With over 300 Firm orders, hasn't the 787 already passed the A330-200 in total orders?


User currently offlineDavid31998 From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 79 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 3563 times:

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 3):
Boeing may have production issues before they can start confirming dates to anyone.

I understand Boeing has production issues. But Boeing notes the delivery years for the 787 when orders are announced. So I am a little confused by your statement.


User currently offlineCruiser From Canada, joined Apr 2005, 1001 posts, RR: 7
Reply 7, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 3526 times:

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 3):
Boeing may have production issues before they can start confirming dates to anyone. The QF comments were very telling, namely that composites are causing Boeing all sorts of issues.

Could you please either IM them to me, or let me know where I can find them? I haven't read them, and I thought that I would have heard more about it!

James



Leahy on Per Seat Costs: "Have you seen the B-2 fly-by at almost US$1bn a copy? It has only 2 seats!"
User currently offlineQFA001 From Australia, joined May 2000, 673 posts, RR: 54
Reply 8, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 3415 times:

Quoting David31998 (Thread starter):
Boeing will try to speed up 787 production to more than one plane every three days to shorten the order to delivery time.

FWIW, the production rate isn't one-every-three-days; it's the intended assembly time that's three days. (If Boeing does an output of 10/month, that is about one B787 rolling out the Everett door every two business days.)

Quoting David31998 (Thread starter):
1. Is long-term efficiency/economics the primary consideration by airlines when selecting either the 787/350? and/or

2. Will airlines order a less desirable model if they can get a much earlier delivery date? If so, this will have a equalizing effect on long-term orders. If one model is selling much better than the other, its delivery time will become progressively longer than the other, creating a competitive disadvantage.

IMO, anything more than a year's difference can be a problem. Reduced operating cost isn't an airline's only reason for buying airplanes -- they also need the seats to grow their markets, earn revenue and capture spill. Also, it depends on how long an airline typically operates airplanes. A small difference isn't going to make much difference to an airline (eg. US Major) that is going to operate a type for 25+ years. However, it might make a difference to an airline with an intent to operate for 15 years (eg. SQ).

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 3):
The QF comments were very telling, namely that composites are causing Boeing all sorts of issues.

What QF comments?

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 5):
With over 300 Firm orders, hasn't the 787 already passed the A330-200 in total orders?

Not in booked (actual) firm orders. Yet. But it will probably happen this year. However, the A330-200 is one derivative; B787 sales are split across two models, the -3/8, and a lot of airlines have substitution rights for the -9.

 airplane QFA001


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21471 posts, RR: 60
Reply 9, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 3398 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 1):
The A330 nearly outsold the 787 in China this year..

Exactly. It's a far better plane than the 767 and is proven over the 787 right now, and available when they need them. It's not a bad investment in the future, even if the A350 or 787 prove to be a better choice 5-10 years from now.

Quoting QFA001 (Reply 8):
What QF comments?

I've yet to see them either, just hear rumblings from a few anti-B people on these boards and when asked to provide the links, they don't seem to come. Mostly we get "trust me" type responses. Various forms have been QF comments, analyst comments, B comments only presented to potential customers, etc.

But one would think if there were real, public comments about this, we'd have them plastered all over the place by Anti-B people here. There would be thread after thread about them.

So please, please post those links so the rumors of the 787s demise can be confirmed! Or at least tell us WHY you aren't allowed to tell us what you know?



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineAbba From Denmark, joined Jun 2005, 1329 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (8 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3375 times:

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 3):
Boeing may have production issues before they can start confirming dates to anyone. The QF comments were very telling, namely that composites are causing Boeing all sorts of issues.

Some time ago - I can't remember where - did the development officer of the 787 program admit (even if he - or was it one from the marketing department? - tried to pretend it wasn't a problem) that the 787 was rather over weight due to the fact that the electric systems didn't give the weight savings that were anticipated at first and that they, therefore, had to find the pounds in other places. Does anyone know who Boeing is getting along dealing with this issue?

Abba


User currently offlineCruiser From Canada, joined Apr 2005, 1001 posts, RR: 7
Reply 11, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3289 times:

Quoting Abba (Reply 10):
Some time ago - I can't remember where - did the development officer of the 787 program admit (even if he - or was it one from the marketing department? - tried to pretend it wasn't a problem) that the 787 was rather over weight due to the fact that the electric systems didn't give the weight savings that were anticipated at first and that they, therefore, had to find the pounds in other places. Does anyone know who Boeing is getting along dealing with this issue?

I have only heard once that the 787 was within 2-3% of their targeted weight and that was back in June/July. This is normal for this stage of the development process though.

James



Leahy on Per Seat Costs: "Have you seen the B-2 fly-by at almost US$1bn a copy? It has only 2 seats!"
User currently offlineElGreco From France, joined Nov 2005, 164 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (8 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3259 times:

Quoting Abba (Reply 10):
Some time ago - I can't remember where - did the development officer of the 787 program admit (even if he - or was it one from the marketing department? - tried to pretend it wasn't a problem) that the 787 was rather over weight due to the fact that the electric systems didn't give the weight savings that were anticipated at first and that they, therefore, had to find the pounds in other places. Does anyone know who Boeing is getting along dealing with this issue?

Technological choices made by Boeing for B787 are in line (and sometime better) with A380 by using more electrical functions like:
- all actuators are electrical/hydraulic in place of full hydraulic;
- new generation cable with smaller insullation diameter/weight;...

But their architecture are not so efficient in term weight saving per equivalent harnesses (because of sheilding of twisted pair in place of global harnessing sheilding and cable technology) compare to A380 ones and it will be the same with A350 (difference are around 30 to 40% of additive weight for same harness). This difference is the results that Boeing have not made enought major development from B777 (they were lead more than financial decision than technical/marketing one).

All this will changed and it's really great to see Boeing comming back has technical company.

The next target (my feeling) is when they will launched before the next "Le Bourget" Air Show of 2007 the development of 737 replacement (797?) "really new" with all 787 technologies and more. Airbus try to be ready for this events with A320 Enhance program, but it will be a much more important battle than A350/B787, and more than ever it will be a weight saving battle.



When you are right alone, you are wrong
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