NorCal From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2459 posts, RR: 5
Reply 4, posted (10 years 3 months 1 day ago) and read 11526 times:
Quoting Zeke (Thread starter): Mates telling me an EK order of either 60x772LR or 30X772LR + 30X773ER next week at the DXB airshow
That would be an amazing order for the 772LR, but it isn't going to happen. It will 99% most likely be going to Airbus for probably 50 A350s. The EK order will guarantee that Airbus will reach the 200 mark for the A350 this year. I'm going to guess that they'll order 10 772LRs and maybe some more 773ERs.
There have been rumors that they might cancel the A346HGW, but probably not since they seem to have an insatiable demand for aircraft.
The only way Boeing can win the 787 vs A350 battle with EK is to offer the 787-10. Not going to happen seeing how Airbus recently said 200 orders again by years end.
AirRyan From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2532 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (10 years 3 months 1 day ago) and read 11365 times:
I still fail to see where EK will ever be able to turn a profit so rapidly with such an aggressive fleet build-up. Things along the magnitude of such an order backlog as what EK has usually happen less gradually - I think EK may be biting more than they can chew.
WhiteHatter From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (10 years 3 months 23 hours ago) and read 11172 times:
EK will probably emerge as a player in leasing when they cascade earlier fleet models, such as the A332, 772ER etc.
Their operation is being built and expanded constantly. The early aircraft could even go forward to become freighters as EK Cargo is a major ongoing project with the new DXB facility designed for large volumes of freight.
Glom From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 2823 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (10 years 3 months 21 hours ago) and read 10654 times:
Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 6): Airbus is close enough to the 200 mark to be able to get there without the EK order.
If that's the case (meaning >260 with EK), then the 787 is a bit of a disappointment. The A350 will have sold at twice the rate in that case. What is wrong with Boeing's sales team? Supposedly, the 787 has the edge because of its new Yellowstone technology.
797charter From Denmark, joined Jun 2005, 219 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (10 years 3 months 21 hours ago) and read 10599 times:
Quoting NorCal (Reply 4): That would be an amazing order for the 772LR, but it isn't going to happen. It will 99% most likely be going to Airbus for probably 50 A350s.
I think you are so right!
Quoting NorCal (Reply 4): The only way Boeing can win the 787 vs A350 battle with EK is to offer the 787-10.
Maybe, - but the 787-10 would probably cannibalize the 772ER orderbook, - all Boing's talk about the 787-10 is just to keep Airbus busy, - and they even have to discount the A359 further because of that - very smart I may say.
Atmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 35
Reply 23, posted (10 years 3 months 18 hours ago) and read 9793 times:
Quoting Glom (Reply 16): If that's the case (meaning >260 with EK), then the 787 is a bit of a disappointment. The A350 will have sold at twice the rate in that case. What is wrong with Boeing's sales team? Supposedly, the 787 has the edge because of its new Yellowstone technology.
But Leahy is only saying 200, and it isn't quite so firm an assertion. I'm just saying that they could be predicting 200 without it. Anyway Boeing's delivery slots are almost filled for the first few years through beyond EIS for the A350, which one has to admit is a rather long time away for the airline industry. It's hard to imagine that aircraft orders for delivery 5 to 8 years from now won't have escape clauses so that the airline doesn't jeopardize its future if unforseen circumstances arise.
Quoting 797charter (Reply 17): Maybe, - but the 787-10 would probably cannibalize the 772ER orderbook, - all Boing's talk about the 787-10 is just to keep Airbus busy, - and they even have to discount the A359 further because of that - very smart I may say.
The order book for the older generation 777s is less than that for the 777LRs, which is growing at a fast rate. Moreover the delivery rate for the older 777s greatly exceeds the order rate, with only 8 firm net orders+2 commitments versus 18 delivered. The order book is decreasing, and Boeing will have to respond. Morever, Boeing has never had a strong A333 competitor in the 772A, and the 787-10X would be just as much an A333/772A replacement as a 772ER/A343 replacement. That is something that favors the 787-10 introductions. I would argue it is only a matter of time, but that time is likely going to be determined by factors such ending of surge deliveries for 787-8s and 787-9s, engineering resources being available, and higher thrust engine availability.
The only alternative Boeing has is a 777 fuselage upgrade, which will involve greater R&D expenditures. On the otherhand, Boeing's peak delivery ability will be greater with both the 787 and 777 lines.
[Edited 2005-11-13 02:36:15]
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
ACYWG From Canada, joined Feb 2005, 265 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (10 years 3 months 17 hours ago) and read 9426 times:
I can't see them ordering anything more anytime soon. I would imagine their finances must be pretty tied up enough as it is, but you never know with EK, they seem to like being the airline that nobody knows what is going to do next.
: You got that right! Actually, the merged US Airways is the largest operator of Airbus aircraft in the world, with 206 in operation. Just to keep it i
: It's hard to escape the conclusion that EK are 'speculating in delivery slots' to an extent. Provided that they have 'escape clauses' built in, or sti
: I by no means know the 100% truth, but what you said is my interpretation of what EK is about to do. Since just before the Paris Air Show, EK has bee
: Considering how EK is into various business at this point, I can easily see EK become not only a big airline but a big leasing company as well, using
: I'm not surprised airbus were desperate, just imange all the used A320s and A330s on the used market and how much it could hurt airbus
: What on earth makes you think they were "desperate"? The deal was engineeered by GECAS - who have much, much more at stake. Airbus came in with $250
: Of course not... Boeing is never desperate.
: that's what I thought!! LOL , are the A310F newbuilds or conversions? Something like Icelandair or Lofteleir( or however its spelled)?
: Well I didn't know its all done via GECAS so you can now calm down Mariner
: Not excited, nothing to calm down about. Just - puzzled. cheers mariner
: I would have to think from Boeing's perspective this would be the best thing for them. Although it would be nice for them to win the entire order wit
: How exactly was GECAS involved in this deal at all? How would GECAS have had more at stake? What are your sources for this information? I just do not
: Let's rephrase that to; I just do not see how your nit-pick has helped to keep this thread on topic at all!! Given all the speculation over the year
: EK will not cancel their A340-600 order, because EK need the aircraft for the expanding and the A350 will come not before 2010. EK will order 50 or 6
: Hurt ? They´ll be snagged up in no time! The carriers still operating DC-10s or older 767s as well as MD-80s and B732s will need a replacement, used
: You make it sound like Airbus isn't. Their website is always about a month behind reality. A
: It is all in public record, I'm sorry oif you can't be bothered doing the research. I'll give you a few clues as a starting point, the rest is called
: You are right, - and I have not explained my opinion well enough. But I don't think the 787-10X will be launched now when the 787-8 (+787-3) is selli
: Zeke, I don't think your mates are too far off the mark and I would expect EK to place large orders for the A359 and the 772LR/772F/773ER at DXB airsh
: Boeing's 48 firm orders in the MEA is part of a global orderbook involving 657 aircraft. They include six B737s for Egypt, five B787s for Morocco, fou
: Whatever they do, it's going to be big! I was surprised at such a big 777 element to the EK order (although obviously we don't know yet!), but I think
: I agree, I could be possible that EK sell their A340 to other airlines, when the A359 join their fleet, but today EK need the A340 for their world wi
: I don't see why they would order both the 787-10 and A350. And I don't see why they would order 787-10s instead of 777-300ERs. Maybe you meant 772LR.
: With regard to the 'Big 777 element' I will not really be suprised if this happens but will believe it when I see it. I would not be suprised to see
: I think EK will order the 777-300ER at the Dubai Air Show, also the 777-200LR. But if Boeing offered the B787-10 to airlines later, it could be possi
: And your source for saying they 'don't really want' the A346 is what exactly?
: 787-10X is already credible - EK made it official a few weeks ago (see "the first 787-10 image" thread). The only problem is, Boeing does not have th
: True, but that could be easily rectified. Just get the boys and girls together for a vote. IMO, that lovely picture in Flight International of the 78
: Well, they should get ther arses together and vote then. Dubai show starts this week I believe... You don't know that. So far it's A350 that's winnin
: Maybe Boeing's cunning plan. If Airbus are going to get a good order sheet, make darn sure they don't get a good balance sheet. Make them lose everyt
: More likely, the extremely crafty Mr. Tim Clarke squeezing as hard as he can. Emirates owns a substantial block of Airbus' order book--in the extreme
: Only insofar as the Boeing engineering resources are pretty much tied up on the development on the -8 and the -3 at the moment.
: Nobody really wants the gas-guzzling quad-powered A340-600's. They are definitely going away, and soon. Airbus put a fork in them with the A350 intro
: Just a thought that occurred to me (I'm sorry,it happens, but I'm trying to cut it back ) ... EK has been after Airbus to launch an A380-900. Now, if
: Do you have other sources than "nobody"???
: Well now... Here we have a prime example of the twin loving, quad bashing poster... Now, if this was really true, then why did LH order more A346's?
: Because they already have some and needed more... but please judge the success on new customers as this good benchmark on market favorability... NONE
: Gee, I don't quite remember asking for another lesson in why the A340 sucks in your opinion, I just remember asking for a source. Which is nowhere to
: OK, Scorpio, here's my source: Airbus A340 orders for 2005 after A350 intro = NONE!
: Thank you. I appreciate the compliment. If anyone doesn't see the demise of quads in the mid-size passenger market, they need to sign up for Bonehead
: Dale, Not sure about that, the airbus guys are working very hard compared to the boeing fleet. Also hear they are in the market for 50 747 size freig
: No. That was a Flight International rendering. N
: Well, what do they need the A340s for if they are ordering 50+ of 359/777/747F??? IT was reported in FI several months ago that EK were looking to di
: Dale, I agree that they may will be looking at replacing some of the older aircraft, with a backlog of over 60 aircraft, and over 100 aircraft being
: Thanks, Zeke, that's a very interesting new 'angle'. It's pretty obvious that, with the advent of 'ultra-longhaul', Emirates will eventually have to
: When I reviewed later on, I realised that Leahy had said that he expected a China order during 2006, not towards the end of this year. So, I quietly
: Give you a hint, one of them has purchased a heap of land at an airport in the region at the same location they have their largest engineering base o
: Seattle-PI is reporting that EK will order about 42 B777LR/Fs + 10 purchase rights. This is consistent with the 50+ numbers we've been hearing for mon
: That is a lot of high priced aluminum. I just don't see how their neighbors will let them get away with this without upping the ante, in the process c
: The 787 is a disappoinment? You're joking? The 787 is selling so well, that Boeing is considering opening a 2nd production line... http://seattletime
: Well, when you have all that money and revenue just from the oil fields, you can tend to be able to afford that many planes. EK is DEFINITELY a world
: 24 773ER, 10 772LR and 8 77F seems to be the breakdown of the orders. Will the 24 773ERs replace the 20 346HGWs on order and will the 10 772LRs repla
: The 787-10X is certainly a credible concept - but whether it is plausible (or wise) for Boeing to offer the aircraft with an EIS suitable for EK is a
: The problem keeping Boeing from formally offering the B787-10 to the airlines is that the engine manufacturers haven't yet figured out how to get the
: Also, does this alter EK's freighter plans? They had only ordered two A380Fs, but had high hopes for a much larger fleet. Now that I think of it, cou
: Wasn 't the range of interest actually >8000nm? It seems that while EK found 7500nm acceptable, they would rather have something greater than that.