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Potential 747-800 Orders  
User currently offline797 From Venezuela, joined Aug 2005, 1895 posts, RR: 27
Posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 15514 times:

Hey guys,

As the other threads are going to get packed, I opened this one!

Well, the big new just popped, the all new 747-800!

So far two airlines have ordered this new beauty, but if we look closely, it could work pretty well for other airlines who want to replace their older 747s.

I don't know why, but the first airlines that came to my mind is BA and CX.

BA has a whole bunch of this ladies and it wouldn't be crazy to replace them with this new series. We also have to consider that we were thinking of BA as a possible A380 launcher, so why not a 748 launcher as well?

CX we know were waiting for the 747Adv, and I guess this is their time! Also we have to consider they are the Asian-Market, and as said in other threads, the 8 number is their lucky one!

Back to the point, I would expect these airlines to book some of the ladies:

BA, CX, SA, UA, IB, JL, KL, CA

Also, I wish to see these carriers working with:

AZ, NZ, AA, CO, DL, AV and I wouldn't mind VS flying it!

What do you guys think?

Regards!


Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
78 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineWhiteHatter From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 15486 times:

Quoting 797 (Thread starter):
BA has a whole bunch of this ladies and it wouldn't be crazy to replace them with this new series. We also have to consider that we were thinking of BA as a possible A380 launcher, so why not a 748 launcher as well?

British Airways will not like having the GEnx forced upon them. The GE90 fiasco helped ensure GE lost subsequent business for the CFM56 and GE90 with BA.

Forget Iberia. Forget Lufthansa. Delta? Are you joking? They need to survive first! Continental won't be interested as they plan around frequency with twins, same with American. United won't be buying anything for some time, and will be more in the market for big twins.

KLM and Air France might have a look as they use GE engines.


User currently offline797 From Venezuela, joined Aug 2005, 1895 posts, RR: 27
Reply 2, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 15452 times:

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
Forget Iberia

Ok.

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
Forget Lufthansa

Never said it...

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
Delta? Are you joking?

Actually, I said "I wish"

The airlines I said were potential buyers are BA, CX, SA, UA, IB, JL, KL, CA



Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
User currently offlineSq212 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 272 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 15437 times:

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
British Airways will not like having the GEnx forced upon them. The GE90 fiasco helped ensure GE lost subsequent business for the CFM56 and GE90 with BA.

Are you saying that BA will not buy planes fitted with GE engines anymore?

Cheers

[Edited 2005-11-16 03:20:47]

User currently offlineKorg747 From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 549 posts, RR: 5
Reply 4, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 15406 times:

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
British Airways will not like having the GEnx forced upon them. The GE90 fiasco helped ensure GE lost subsequent business for the CFM56 and GE90 with BA.

I see your posts toward Boeing and GE to be very Negative. Are you an engineer who deals with those GE-90s?



Please excuse my English!
User currently offlineAirRyan From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2532 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 15376 times:

I'm sure NW is or at least will be interested in 10-15 firm pax version within the next 2-5 years to replace their 747-400's based upon the savings in fuel costs alone with a new 747-800. NW is simply just drueling over the 787 and the new 748 will just be a more advanced and ecnomical version of an already highly successful platform for them - I'd be surprised if NW hasn't already discussed an order with Boeing even if they are in Ch11 - any deliveries wouldn't begin until 2009 and NW will be doing just fine by then having accepted the 787's beginning in 2008.

It would then only be logical for NW to covert their remaining 744's into frieghtors and than they would have a pretty sweet fleet of 74's as they have always done - NW has been there with the 747 since Day 1 and they were the the launch customer on the 744 - I wouldn't be suprised to see them announce to become a launch customer for the 748 with a delivery of around 2009/10 either.

With that said, I definately would see UA buy into some eventually, though perhaps not as soon as NW. The real question will be whether or not any other US legacy carrier buys some for pax service. I'd think British Airways, AirFrance, Qantas, and Lufthansa will all eventually buy some as well.

[Edited 2005-11-16 03:25:37]

User currently offline797 From Venezuela, joined Aug 2005, 1895 posts, RR: 27
Reply 6, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 15332 times:

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 5):
I don't see AA or DL opting for them I wouldn't be surprised if CO went for a few and started some new routes.

Yeah, I agree with you. I associate AA adn DL with the 787. CO seems to be a little bit more likely to get some 748s, it would be a good change!

Regz



Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
User currently offlineTrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4769 posts, RR: 14
Reply 7, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 15258 times:
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You are missing out CI who have 9 Pratt powered 744s ripe for replacement in the next few years (they don't want any "old" planes in the fleet after their 1992 742 crash and 10 years is getting to be old in their eyes) plus 21 744Fs which started delivery in 2000 only but by 2010 by their reckoning will be starting to be too old. Then there are the 4 recent GE powered 744s (probably without doubt the last passenger 744s to be built) they took delivery off in the last year which will need replacing in about 10 years also.
This assumes the Taiwanese govt have gotten over their petty squables with Boeing or CIs ownership finally gets totally privatized in which case they will have less say in the matter of what CI purchases (the last 4 744s and most of the 744Fs were purchased under pressure from the govt to balance CIs A340/330 purchases)


User currently offlineTinkerBelle From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 15248 times:

I think every airline that currently operates the 744 is a possibility here. I'm willing to bet my two cents that BA will order the 748 down the road when the time comes to replace their 744's.

Quoting Korg747 (Reply 4):
I see your posts toward Boeing and GE to be very Negative. Are you an engineer who deals with those GE-90s?

I wouldn't pay much attention to him, he rants about Boeing every opportunity he gets.

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
Forget Lufthansa

Why is that? I think LH is a very high possibility considering their large 744 collection.

VS-I doubt it.

UA-Once they get out of BK.

NW-Sooner than later.

AF-KLM- Very likely.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21532 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 15216 times:

Quoting 797 (Reply 6):
Yeah, I agree with you. I associate AA adn DL with the 787. CO seems to be a little bit more likely to get some 748s, it would be a good change!

The only way CO would ever get the 748 would be if they were allowed to fly into LHR.

Then you'd see them order a fleet of 5 to cover EWR and IAH to LHR combined with EWR-NRT.

Otherwise, don't hold your breath.

Well, I guess another way would be for them to merge with UAL...  Wink



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offline797 From Venezuela, joined Aug 2005, 1895 posts, RR: 27
Reply 10, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 15170 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 9):

The only way CO would ever get the 748 would be if they were allowed to fly into LHR.

Yeah! But there's also a chance of a replacement...who knows!

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 9):
Well, I guess another way would be for them to merge with UAL...

WOW!



Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
User currently onlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8278 posts, RR: 8
Reply 11, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 15089 times:

The odd chance out is QF for a few when they release their order plans, hopefully next month. If Boeing gets the deal I can see a handful of the 748s as insurance against the 380.

User currently offlinePiercey From Sweden, joined Nov 2005, 2233 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 15083 times:

BA - Yes, within 10
CX - Yes, within 10
SA - no idea, probably, though
UA - I give them launch of pax or at least one of the first five customers
IB - no, they are going Airbus, wich is a shame
JL - yes for both versions, another first five
KL/AF - another first five. They'll probably be one of the few airrlines using both 748 and A380s
CA - maybe
AZ - yeah right, they are in a worse situation then DL
NZ - yes, within 10
AA and DL - wouldn't fit route network
CO - wildcard, IMO, but they should make CLE a third major international hub first
AV - wildcard
VS - yes, within 10
SQ and QF - yes, within 10. Remember that there is a pax and maybe even a range differance between the 748 and the A380.



Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
User currently offlineMarshalN From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2005, 1521 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 15038 times:

Quoting Piercey (Reply 12):
no, they are going Airbus, wich is a shame

Why is it a shame except that maybe you're cheering for Boeing?

Quoting Piercey (Reply 12):
but they should make CLE a third major international hub first

I don't think CLE is really viable as an international hub. The airport isn't up for it, and between EWR and IAH -- I don't see the point of them having another hub. In fact, CLE's not that much of a domestic hub anymore.


User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 14, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 14923 times:

Potential buyers: SA, BA, LH, KLM, AF (maybe), VS, UA, NW, AI, TG, SQ, MH, JAL, ANA, KE, CI, CA, QF, NZ, AC (maybe).

Quoting Piercey (Reply 12):
BA - Yes, within 10
CX - Yes, within 10
SA - no idea, probably, though
UA - I give them launch of pax or at least one of the first five customers
IB - no, they are going Airbus, wich is a shame
JL - yes for both versions, another first five
KL/AF - another first five. They'll probably be one of the few airrlines using both 748 and A380s
CA - maybe
AZ - yeah right, they are in a worse situation then DL
NZ - yes, within 10
AA and DL - wouldn't fit route network
CO - wildcard, IMO, but they should make CLE a third major international hub first
AV - wildcard
VS - yes, within 10
SQ and QF - yes, within 10. Remember that there is a pax and maybe even a range differance between the 748 and the A380.

These are initial orders I think. I am sure they will order more after sometime or place a large order


User currently offlineHZ747300 From Hong Kong, joined Mar 2004, 1677 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 14881 times:
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What about SV? I think they are a great candidate. The new president of Boeing KSA is ex-Saudi Arabian Airlines.

It will fall into place for the 748--now that airlines know it will be built.



Keep on truckin'...
User currently offlineAl319 From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 81 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 14864 times:

I think ANA will also be a likely candidate


“atom celled…jet propelled”
User currently offlineSq212 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 272 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 14847 times:

Quoting Al319 (Reply 16):
I think ANA will also be a likely candidate

PR a very likely candidate too.


User currently offlineTinkerBelle From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 14834 times:

Quoting Al319 (Reply 16):
I think ANA will also be a likely candidate

'Nippon Cargo Airlines, based in Japan, has ordered eight 747-8 Freighters and will receive its first airplane in fourth-quarter 2009'.

That is a quote directly from the Boeing website. Not only are they a candidate, they ARE a launch customer for the freighter.


User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7064 posts, RR: 4
Reply 19, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 14778 times:

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
Forget Lufthansa

Why ? Lufthansa loves their 747s and publicly stated interest in the 747Adv.
They need to fill the gap between A346 and A380.
Lufthansa´s future lies especially in the longhaul market since the German and European market is swept over with low cost carriers.
So I think that you´ll see them order the 747-8 before a 737, A320 or A306 replacement -which are due to replacement around 2012. But before they replace their continental fleet they wait and watch how the markets develops.

Regarding the longhaul market they are getting a huge competition from Emirates and other Asian and Middle Eastern carriers.
Mayrhuber Lufthansa´s CEO said in an interview this is their biggest challenge in the future and in order to compete with them they need to grow -shortly after that interview they bought Swiss.
In order to compete with Emirates, Ethiad and the others they need to offer a fair price on longhaul routes. Since the fuel prices are incredibly high they could need fuel efficient aircrafts like the 747-8.
I think they will order the 747-8 within the next two years as they need the delivery slots. Like with the A380 they will not be the first airline to order it but will not wait that long.
I could think that if they order the 747-8 and the first ones reaches the
fleet the 747-400s will be converted into freighters. Maybe they order some 747-8Fs as well or some 747-400F as they need the nose door to carry outsized cargo. Their largest competitioners in Europe Cargolux and Air France Cargo are flying the 747-400F so Lufthansa Cargo at some time will order 747 freighters, too. The question is if they are -8 or -400s.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 37
Reply 20, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 14761 times:

Quoting Columba (Reply 19):
Why ? Lufthansa loves their 747s and publicly stated interest in the 747Adv.

I think he thinks the lack of an RR engine is going to be an issue for them.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7064 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 14741 times:

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 20):
I think he thinks the lack of an RR engine is going to be an issue for them.

No, because they order different engine types already as they want to be qualified in their maintenance. They want to offer maintenance service on as many engine and aircrafts types as possible because LH is making a lot of money with that as well.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offline777ER From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 12172 posts, RR: 17
Reply 22, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 14738 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

NZ is apparantly seriously considering including the B748 in its big upcoming order that will include more B787 and B777 options being taken up. This order is expected soon. NZ1 and/or TG992 can go further with the order.

User currently offlineNASOCEANA From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 291 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 14705 times:

I think EK will place an order for maybe 10 frames. Mostly for cargo!


B777 greatest Airliner ever built!
User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 24, posted (8 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 14668 times:

Quoting TinkerBelle (Reply 18):
'Nippon Cargo Airlines, based in Japan, has ordered eight 747-8 Freighters and will receive its first airplane in fourth-quarter 2009'.

That is a quote directly from the Boeing website. Not only are they a candidate, they ARE a launch customer for the freighter.

NCA, Nippon Cargo Airlines
ANA All Nippon Airlines

Not only have they a diffrent name, they are 2 different airlines. ANA recently pulled out NCA. ANA operates at the moment a single 767-300F with some more on order in their cargo division. Hope this clears things up for you.



SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS
25 BrightCedars : Well, I'll buck the trend and tell you I don't think many of these airlines will be buying the B747-8 passenger version. First, let us not forget that
26 Kiwiandrew : Dont forget that by EIS for the 747-8 the oldest 744s out there will be 20 years old - CX certainly has some very "senior" 744s ( they were the launch
27 TinkerBelle : Thanx for the correction Manni.
28 Slider : Given the development of routes to China, that's also a possibility. CO has EWR-PEK, and wants PVG. HKG is just on the margin of being too big for a
29 Zvezda : Maybe a range difference? CX have been delaying consideration of a WhaleJet order until it is clear whether or not it can fly SFO-HKG year-round with
30 FlyingDove : I'll bet on a small LY order to replace their current 747 passenger fleet, which includes: 4 744s + 1 leased 744 + 1 742. Also, they will have to repl
31 A360 : That range issue has been nothing more than speculation... there's no indication the 380 won't meet it's designed range of 8000nm. So, for the time b
32 AirworldA320 : How about the current users of the cargo 747: Atlas Air UPS Cathay Pacific China Airlines Global Supply Systems JAL EVA just to name a few, thoughts a
33 DIA : "How about the current users of the cargo 747: Atlas Air UPS Cathay Pacific China Airlines Global Supply Systems JAL EVA just to name a few, thoughts
34 FlyingHippo : I definitely see CX ordering some 748s, they need to replace their 744s eventually. But if CX finally decides to order A388, then 748 might not be a p
35 Stitch : I don't see NH as a customer. They seem to have settled on the B773 for their intra-Japan high-density flights and the B773ER for their international
36 Post contains images AirworldA320 : [quote=DIA,reply=33]You forgot FedEx...they'd probably get if UPS does... And I'd add Korean to the list. They are one of the top cargo carriers of th
37 FlyingHippo : Are you sure about that?
38 Post contains images Pac : well UPS & Fedex are not the best Boeing Friends .. Remember when UPS switched from 767 to A300 and Fedex's last "real" Boeing order were the last eve
39 Glom : I think he's wrong. If there was an option, it would require different type ratings. What's LH's deal with sidesticks anyway? I find it hard to belie
40 TWPHIL : EL AL could also a be a potential buyer of the new 748. It could easely replace remaining 742s still in service as well as the older 744 maybe..B748 w
41 DIA : Pac: UPS just ordered new 744Freighters...so they are open for Boeing business ...and the 748 is considerably in another (smaller) class than the A380
42 Carfield : I definitely see a potential big order with CX, which is not too keen on either Boeing 777-300ERs or Airbus A340-500/600 or A380, so Boeing 747-800 is
43 Post contains images Freedom4all : Had anyone thought about the fact that now that a new 747 model is being built, when the last 747 is taken to the scrap yard it will be of an airframe
44 YULWinterSkies : It is not because they publicly stated 1-2 years ago that their future fleet would be 777-787 that this will never change... Only stupid people never
45 HanginOut : Air Canada has no interest in an aircraft this big. The biggest plane that they will operate will be the 777-300ER.
46 Post contains images UAMAYBACH1239 : Fred Smith the Head Honcho at fedex for some reason hates the thought of 747's in any way. Not sure why. When he first came on board after the Flying
47 Post contains images Pac : DIA: thx for that info yea forgot that the "brown Bananas" are already got ´747's and Fedex don't so its normal that they looking for an equal Produc
48 Piercey : Some more airlines and my opinions TG - I can't belive that they haven't been mentioned yet. Nothing claims they're unhappy with the 744, and they don
49 Post contains images SthPacific787 : One question regarding AA. How is it, such a big Trans Atlantic carrier flying a lot of PAX into slot restricted LHR relies on a 300 seat aircraft to
50 Post contains images NZ1 : And a very good rumour it is too NZ1
51 FlyingHippo : Nope. They will not get anything larger than their 773ERs which will replace their 744s. They MIGHT order 748Fs, but they have 772LRFs on order, so t
52 DIA : "Some more airlines and my opinions TG - I can't belive that they haven't been mentioned yet. Nothing claims they're unhappy with the 744, and they do
53 Stitch : I would (like to) imagine that Boeing kept NH abreast of the developments that resulted in the 747-8I. So I (like to) imagine that NH knew this plane
54 David L : We were? Where have you guys been when this has been discussed in several recent threads? Yay! Someone who's been paying attention (don't know about
55 Jrosa : RG may place a B748Pax order in the future. RG is a long time and loyal Boeing customer, also Boeing is a big creditor in RG bankruptcy lawsuit as wel
56 USAF336TFS : I couldn't agree more Glom, although, it sounds like something their Airbus drivers would say. The 744 pilots say just the opposite, and love the air
57 ER757 : A certainty IMHO. Probably so - depends on when they were expecting deliveries of the 744's and how closely delivery dates of the 748's would match.
58 Post contains images Piercey : I meant more then the 773 (787 (again), 748), that and no more airbus widebodies I feel like a complete dumba** right now. I just saw a drawing of it
59 Ikramerica : I agree with that. If the LHR fantasy ever becomes a reality and CO starts using a larger type, they could also use it on HKG, NRT, and China dependi
60 B777200 : I think South African Airways can be counted-out of the equation. South African Airways have a goal of operating an all Airbus fleet in the next few y
61 United Airline : Lufthansa has publicly stated that they are interested in the B 747 Advanced. And they pushed Boeing in developing the B 747 Advanced. Right for LH.
62 777ER : Airbus long haul (A330s and A340s) for AC are out of the fleet with the B787 and B777 order....end of story.
63 KLMCedric : The 744 all pax versions are some of the oldest in KL's fleet, with BFA nearing 18 years of age now. The combi's will remain for quite some time becau
64 DeltaWings : What about SS? They are a 747 operator, they are getting some 744s, and Im sure they wouldn't mind an even bigger aircraft. Plus they are not against
65 Post contains images ZKSUJ : I hope NZ get the 749 as well. the bigger the better (within limits). Anyone know if the 749 is a possibility for NZ?
66 Post contains images Zippyjet : Very interesting & btw. many thanks for that web site link! This bird and the 380 can co-exist. Different markets, needs and capacitys. And, it boils
67 Kiwiandrew : sorry , is there going to be a 747-9 ? I thought they had only announced a 747-8
68 Post contains images Gorbidog : The 747-9 is going to be known as the "SP2" ...
69 Stitch : Singaporegirl says the local rumors are that a 15 frame 747-8 freighter order is going to be consumated in the very near future. Mind you, should SQ
70 Gorbidog : I'm assuming that you mean "15 firm 747-8 freighter ..." as opposed to "frame"?
71 Post contains images Kiwiandrew : no , I think he means 'frame" as in "airframe" ie "plane" a classic use of jargon rather than plane ( oops , plain ) English
72 Post contains images Gorbidog : You mean Singaporegirl is a he?
73 ZKSUJ : Sorry my mistake. Did not realise the 749 was speculations.
74 Kiwiandrew : ooops - sorry SQgirl - I really didn't meant it - I have a really bad head cold this week and that is my excuse for absolutely everything stupid I sa
75 Teva : For all those who don't understand why FX is not and probably will not in the future be interested in the 747: FX business is express. That means smal
76 SunriseValley : Not sure about the replacement aspect. In a fairly recent response to a posting NZ1 said that the existing -400 fleet would be retained well past 201
77 777D : Why the 747-800 instead of the 777-300ER and 777-200LR?
78 SunriseValley : The tables that Widebodyphotog has provided in the concurrent thread "Boeing officially Launches 747-8 family" reply 215 compares the 747-8 and the A
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