BoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Posted (7 years 7 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 2780 times:
What if Airbus had NOT built the A380? What if they had just decided to keep their powder dry and wait to see what Boeing was up to?
What would the competitive landscape look like today?
Would Boeing still have built the 787?
If so, what would Airbus have countered with?
A composite fuselage plane similar to the 787?
Or would they have gone with a large twin to directly challenge the 777?
Or would they still have gone with the A380?
More than likely, yes. The progression of the 787 from the Yellowstone studies of 1998-2000 is obvious, and Boeing always new the product cylce of the 767 was going to end 20-30 years after its 1981 EIS.
Grantcv From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 429 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (7 years 7 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 2695 times:
I have been wondering something similar. I think Boeing would have done what they are doing regardless. But I think that Airbus, with one large project already underway, tried to take a cheap route to competing with the 787 by reengining the A330. When that failed to excite the market, the ended up undertaking a more ambitious derivative of the A330. Was that the right move? Should the A330 have become the competitor for the 787? After all, the A330 still sells well and really doesn't need to be replaced yet. I think a better move would have been to develop the A330 as a better competitor to the entire 777 lineup - displacing the A340 which is falling out of favor. And then, separately, building a true replacement for the A300/A310 that would directly compete with the 787. That way, the A330/A340 producton line would be focused on competing with the 777 and a separate production line could compete with the 787. Both aircraft would be better sized for their markets and they would have twice the production capability.
With the current makeup - the A380 is too big and costly, the A350 is either too big or too small, the A340 has too many engines, and the A300/A310 are too old. The only well positioned widebody in their lineup is the A330 and that is being replaced.
BoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 4, posted (7 years 7 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 2678 times:
I would have thought they would have gone with the biggest composite twin they could build to counter the 777, since the A340 doesn't compete very well in this segment anymore.
BG777300ER From Bulgaria, joined Mar 2005, 248 posts, RR: 1 Reply 6, posted (7 years 7 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 2504 times:
Quoting Aseem (Reply 5): sure the B744Adv or B748 project as you call wouldn't have materialized.
I agree, even though many people say that the 748 was not built as a DIRECT competitor, it was still built (in my opinion) to take away some sales from the A380. In other words, it was built to earn the market of customers who needed something bigger than the 747 but inside thought the A380 might be a little too big for them but were thinking of getting the A380 because no alternative big plane was present (if this sentence makes any sense at all). No matter what people say, the 748 was a reaction to the A380.
I think airbus would've built a composite and reengined twin (basically the A350 still) that would've been what it is now. But I think they would've made models of it that would've infringed on the upper part of the 787 market (in terms of passengers) and the lower part of the 777 market (especially the 772 market). In other words, they would've built a plane that would take away customers who thought the 787 was too small and the 777-300 too big.
AirPortugal310 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3104 posts, RR: 2 Reply 7, posted (7 years 7 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 2467 times:
MarshalN From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2005, 1521 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (7 years 7 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2396 times:
Quoting Aither (Reply 9): Why ? the A330/A340 family was born in the early 90s and showed it is capable to compete with the 777.
I agree
I also think the 748 would not have shown up. We'll still be stuck with the 744, and possibly with 744 having more orders. I think there is a market for VLA though, and somebody at some point would've jumped the gun.
AirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2779 posts, RR: 42 Reply 11, posted (7 years 7 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2319 times:
Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter): What if Airbus had NOT built the A380? What if they had just decided to keep their powder dry and wait to see what Boeing was up to?
I suspect that Boeing would have pushed another iteration of the 747. I do not think that it would be anywhere near as large as the A380, but it certainly would have a new wing, and a lot of the design features that made it int hte A380 (bleedless engines most probably).
Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 1):
No, Airbus chose it's 777 competitor in 1998 with the launch of the A340-500/600.
I would have loved to be a fly on the wall for that conversation. The number of 777s to 340s definitly are so lobsided that one wonders if there was anything Airbus could have done to more efficently challange the 777.
Quoting Aither (Reply 9): Why ? the A330/A340 family was born in the early 90s and showed it is capable to compete with the 777.
The A330 competed more directly against the 767 and 757, not the 777. To that end it did it's job well putting the 757 in the graveyard. Now the 787 will do the same to the A330 and the 346 will continue to be outsold dramatically versus the 777.
I really think Airbus's focus on the A3XX late in the 90s hurt the 346. I suspect that we would not be looking at large orders for the 777 in former Airbus stronghold (EK an CX) in particular if these planes had the same focus the A3XX did.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26948 posts, RR: 83 Reply 13, posted (7 years 7 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 1976 times:
The A3XX was first announced around the end of 1996. I believe the B745 and B746 proposals were announced around the same time?
So if the A380 program had never been launched, I imagine Boeing would have still offered a 745/746, and those programs probably would have gained traction, since they filled the same need as the A380 does (just not as well, in the minds of the airlines, which is why they went with the A380).
Boeing would have launched the 772LR, just because Airbus had the A345. Yes, it's a "nice" market, but with the 772F, Boeing knew they could make money on the program.
The 787 would have happened, and probably about as quickly. The A330 really hammered the 767 into the ground, so Boeing had to come up with something. With the airlines making money hand over fist, the Sonic Cruiser still would have been offered first - but as a way to blunt the A330 instead of the A380. When what happened...happened...Boeing would have moved from the SC to the 787.
Airbus would be replying with the A350, of course, and working on an A340-600NG (with more composites and A350 engines) I imagine to blunt the 777-300ER and (maybe) 747-400/500 programs.
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