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What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?  
User currently offlineGrantcv From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 430 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 11518 times:

Two years ago, I thought that the Airbus lineup was unbeatable. A modern and consistent single-aisle A318/A319/A320/A321 family at the lower end. And then a rational set of wide body families - A300/A310, A330/A340, and A380 at the top. All of a sudden, things seem to be not so nice. The A320 family is now 20 years old and, while still modern and selling well, overdue for a makeover. The A300/A310 only exist for the freighter market. The A330 is still selling well, but is being replaced by the A350 to better compete with the B739 and the B722ER. The A340 seems to have all but stalled out. And the A380 is grabbing the headlines at the very top, but not finding too many takers.

So what is next for Airbus? Update or replace the A320 family. Replace the A300/A310 family and compete with the 783/788. Replace the A340 with a twin to compete with the 773. Shrink the A380 and compete directly with the 748 - if that is technically feasible at all. It seems to me that Airbus has to do most of these in the next few years. Which one do they do first? Or do they take on the A389?

58 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21532 posts, RR: 59
Reply 1, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 11493 times:

It better be pro-active rather than reactive.

Maybe they come out with a true replacement for the 757 series based on the A321/(A322) with a new wing? Force Boeings hand? Of course that would lead boeing to officially launch Y1 including the 737NG replacement, which would force Airbus to NG the A320.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineDirkou From United States of America, joined Jun 2003, 571 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 11481 times:

When will the first A350 be delivered? And the first 787?

User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21532 posts, RR: 59
Reply 3, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 11424 times:

788 in first half of 2008, if all goes well. Afterward would be a big setback, as the Chinese want them pre-Olympics.

350 is 2010, and that isn't as tight since nobody cares about the Winter Olympics  Wink



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineElGreco From France, joined Nov 2005, 164 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 11408 times:

Actual and futur work for Airbus:

Finish the A380-800, -900 and freither;

Still a lot of work of A400M with 1st delivery in 2008 (200 orders and certainlly 100 to 200 more over next 10 years);

A lot of work on A350-800 and -900 with first delivery in 2010 (may be -1000 for EK with 20m more!!!);

Rebuilted the A320 familly with all technologies from A380, A350 and all possible from B787 with first flight in 2012.

This date of 2012 is the AIRBUS official internal target date for the A320 Enance takoff. They are sure that Boeing will replaced their very old design B737 by a brand new full composite plane for take off between 2010 and 2012 (my feeling is Boeing will annouced that at the next Le Bouget Airshow in June 2007 during the presentation in flight of the very nice B787).


Remember that A320/B737 represent half of the market.

Airbus may survive with 30 to 40% of the A350/B787 market, but they need to be in worse case at 50% of small aircraft business.



When you are right alone, you are wrong
User currently offlineTheSonntag From Germany, joined Jun 2005, 3595 posts, RR: 29
Reply 5, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 11399 times:

You have a valid point. I guess the future of Airbus will depend a lot on the A320 successor. As the 737 and A320 successors likely will have the same engines, I guess both airplanes will not be that different from each other.

The A380 will be succesful, but this isn't the field where Airbus will make too much money for the forseeable future, however the PR effect should not be underestimated. This is largely irrelevant for the typical customer, but still it is a nice side-effect.

The money will be made in the 787 category. The A350 will be a succes, but in order to get a real A340 replacement, more will have to be done.

I think Airbus should concentrate on the A320 replacement and derivatives for now. In 10years, we will see what comes next.


User currently offlineElGreco From France, joined Nov 2005, 164 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 11340 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3):
788 in first half of 2008, if all goes well. Afterward would be a big setback, as the Chinese want them pre-Olympics

It will be difficult, we need to deliver first parts for B787 middle/end of 2006, so first flight in begining of 2007?

Then one year testing, qualification and production,....

OK seems possible, but I remember that we were so under pressure for the A380, everybody was hopping that somebody else will be late to reduced pressure.

Even if Boeing and Airbus used Catia, their is a lot of work and even if I am really impress by the Boeing Compagny, they are facing to a great chalenge, working and managing people all around the world (USA, Japan, Korea, Europe,...) and even they have done some equivalent work with Japan on the 777, it was long time ago.



When you are right alone, you are wrong
User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 11321 times:

I would like to see a Beluga based on the A340.

User currently offlineDL021 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 11447 posts, RR: 75
Reply 8, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 11284 times:
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I think that their next major project will depend entirely on whether they get more orders for the A-380. They need to increase their cash flow in order to afford to create a new from-scratch airplane, so whether they do a totally new replacement for their single aisle product line or a "next-generation" approach depends on them increasing sales on items they are currently producing and able to deliver.

Since the A-350 is at least 6 years off, and it is a derivative itself, and the A-380 is not selling as well as they projected, and the earlier mentioned A-400 is not exactly going to be a tremendous money maker for them I don't really see what their next step is other than an enhanced or next-gen A-320 airplane....perhaps calling it an A325 or something to create a new airplane feel. Kind of like those cans of "new car smell" you can buy at Pep-Boys.

It feels like the tables are turning a bit, and Boeing now appears to have better prospects over the next couple of years.

Both manufacturers will continue to make airplanes, though, and I'm certain that the A-330/340 is not the last beautiful and popular airplane that Airbus will build. But they need to come up with a better plan than what they currently seem to have if they wish to dominate.



Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
User currently offlineElGreco From France, joined Nov 2005, 164 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 11281 times:

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 7):
I would like to see a Beluga based on the A340.

About the Beluga, I notice that EADS have been selected on B787, so why not using Beluga to deliver B787 part in place of lanching a B747 with a big "deformation" on the top (it looks like Quasimodo del Seattle).



When you are right alone, you are wrong
User currently offlineGrantcv From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 430 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 11251 times:

When it comes to the single aisle market, Airbus seems to have few choices - extend the current lineup to take advantage of the absence of the 752, upgrade the A320, or replace it outright. Is this their opportunity to regain the upperhand by introducing a state-of-the-art design before Boeing gets to? It seems that Boeing has to develop an all new single-aisle within the next 5 or so years where Airbus could get away with an NG. But if Airbus only do an NG, won't they be where Boeing is just coming from - having a lineup perceived as old designs?

User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 11, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 11200 times:

I think that the next major program for Airbus will be to update and re-engineer the A32X family to incorporate new technologies and the lessons learned from the development of the A350 and A380 aircraft. (The same will be true over at Boeing.....next up will be the 737NG replacement.) While which airliner has the longest range and which airliner has the most capacity is interesting and sexy, the A32X/737NG single aisle families are far more important in terms of volume, sales and profits for both Airbus and Boeing.

Both Airbus and Boeing will develop new comprehensive single aisle airliners that can accommodate anywhere from 125 to 225 passengers (in a typical two class configuration, more for charter/LCC work) over segments ranging from short haul (for intra-European flights, for example) to transatlantic runs (say up to 4,500 miles)......the new single aisle families will play a huge role replacing everything from the 73G/A319 to the 752. Boeing has said that its looking at up to four fuselage lengths with two different wing versions to cover this huge market, my guess is that Airbus will do about the same. Efffecienty and commonality will be the key features within the repective aircraft families.

These will be huge and costly projects which will be the basis of the future of each of the manufacturers.....one cannot emphasize how important the 737NG and A32X successors will be to Boeing and Airbus, respectively.


User currently offline11Bravo From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1718 posts, RR: 10
Reply 12, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 11154 times:

Quoting DL021 (Reply 8):
I don't really see what their next step is other than an enhanced or next-gen A-320 airplane....perhaps calling it an A325 or something to create a new airplane feel. Kind of like those cans of "new car smell" you can buy at Pep-Boys.

I don't think that approach is going to work for either Airbus or Boeing. If one of them goes down the “technology upgrade” route for narrow-bodies, the other will launch a completely new aircraft and run the table.

Both the B737 series and the A320s are selling well right now, so I don’t think there’s an immediate need for a replacement. When the time comes, Airbus and Boeing will have to develop new aircraft based on composite technology, new engines, and whatever other advances we see in the next five years or so.

Obviously Airbus has put a lot of its eggs in the A380 basket, and it seems to me that’s where they need to concentrate their efforts for now. They need to get the production up and running and work on tweaking the performance to insure the A380 is a solid seller.

I honestly don’t know what to think of where Airbus is going in the mid-sized market. It would seem that they have no plans to go after the A300/B767 sector and I think the long-term viability of the A350 is still questionable. Targeting the gap between the 787 and the 777 with a derivative airframe may have been a mistake.

If Boeing launches a 787-10, things could go very badly for the A350, and I would also think Boeing could consider a “NG” 777-200ER that would utilize some of the improvements that have made the 777-300ER so successful.

At this point, I think canceling the A350 and building a truly new aircraft in that size range needs to be on the table for Airbus. Obviously if they did that, they’d be late into the market, but it would give them an opportunity to capture a larger portion of the midsize market in the long run. Boeing had success with this type of strategy when they built the 777 after the A340 entered the market.



WhaleJets Rule!
User currently offlineKhenleyDIA From Sweden, joined Feb 2005, 426 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 11085 times:

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 12):
At this point, I think canceling the A350 and building a truly new aircraft in that size range needs to be on the table for Airbus. Obviously if they did that, they’d be late into the market, but it would give them an opportunity to capture a larger portion of the midsize market in the long run. Boeing had success with this type of strategy when they built the 777 after the A340 entered the market.

Do you really think that Airbus is going to cancel the A350??? They expect to have nearly or over 200 commitments by the end of the year. What, that isn't good?? Maybe they don't have the firm orders that Boeing has, but they have further to go then Boeing.

When it comes to a 737/320 replacement, what makes any of you really think that Airbus and Boeing aren't already working on such projects? I would be very surprised if they aren't coming up with ideas and seeing what technology will go into it. It might not be full force, but they are working on it, to a certain extent.

Boeing in the past has spent time developing a cabin layout using 2 isles for planes around the size of the 737/320 pax load. It will be interesting to see if they use that idea. I don't remember where I read it, but it was maybe a year ago that I read that.

As for Airbus, I imagine they will be doing the same thing that Boeing will be doing. I think it makes sense that they try to match each others moves. The big question is who will do it first. But, I bet in the next 2 or so years, we will see someone make the move.

KhenleyDIA



Why sit at home and do nothing when you can travel the world.
User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 10981 times:

Quoting ElGreco (Reply 4):
They are sure that Boeing will replaced their very old design B737.

You mean that very old design that is out selling the A320 family this year? The 737NG is as much a new plane as the A350 is.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 12):
When the time comes, Airbus and Boeing will have to develop new aircraft based on composite technology, new engines, and whatever other advances we see in the next five years or so.

Airbus says that a composite fuselage is too risky for a commercial application.


User currently offlineJetMaster From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 10969 times:

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 14):
Airbus says that a composite fuselage is too risky for a commercial application.

That's their official opinion...


Regards,
JM


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 16, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 10964 times:

If I were Airbus I would be considering a very large twin (larger than the B777) to fill the gap between the A350-900 and the WhaleJet.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31003 posts, RR: 86
Reply 17, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 10922 times:
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The A388 is still in testing and has yet to enter passenger service, so I think it is premature to think the program is in danger of "stalling". If it does as well as Airbus believes it will, we will probably see new customers and existing customers increase their orders. And even if she is a little "off", I just don't see everyone moving to the B747-8I...

As for the A350, Airbus really needs to convert some of those letters of intent to hard orders with hard cash behind them. The game is still quite early, of course, and there are so many A330/767/A340 customers who could go for the A350, so it's hardly "make or break" time for the program, but the 787 continues to build momentum. If EK has decided against the A350 (be it in favor of the 787 or eschewing both widebodies in favor of the 777), that's going to hurt.

The A318-A321 still sell extremely well. Not sure how big their backorder is, but I imagine it is enough (considering the program should continue to rack up orders) to push a real replacement back until the mid-2010s. Boeing has so many 73Gs on order that I expect they also will wait until the mid-2010s before the "797" is launched. I'd be shocked (and dismayed, frankly), if Boeing announced the "797" in 2007, personally.


User currently offlineElGreco From France, joined Nov 2005, 164 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 10909 times:

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 14):
Quoting ElGreco (Reply 4):
They are sure that Boeing will replaced their very old design B737.

You mean that very old design that is out selling the A320 family this year? The 737NG is as much a new plane as the A350 is.

Hello BoomBoom,

The B737 is really old design, far away from A320 familly:

Special engine and pylon design from the B737-400 because it was design for smaller engines, so too close from the ground,

No fly by wire,

No or only few composite,

Old manual reveting manufacturing,

Old electrical design,

Expensive technology, because too old,

....

This is normal, even if some investment was made on that plane (winglet,...), you need to recognize that this plane was design long long time ago, even before 757, 767 which are today consider as old plane compare to B787 or A350.

It will be very easy for Boeing to build the replacement of B737 by a B787 smaller. In fact, we already discust that with Boeing, when they told me future airplanes in place of answering "yes it will be the 737 replacement".



When you are right alone, you are wrong
User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 84
Reply 19, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 10892 times:

Fly by wire isn't necessarily relevant. The plane is as composite as the A320. The electrical design is brand new as are all the onboard systems. The wing is completely new.

The only thing about the 737 that's the same is the fuselage. Its a valid competitor, to be sure.

Airbus needs to build a plane that covers the 300 - 500 seat market.

N


User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 10866 times:

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 15):
Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 14):
Airbus says that a composite fuselage is too risky for a commercial application.

That's their official opinion...

So are you saying the have an unofficial opinion to the contrary?


User currently offlineElGreco From France, joined Nov 2005, 164 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 10845 times:

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 19):
Fly by wire isn't necessarily relevant. The plane is as composite as the A320. The electrical design is brand new as are all the onboard systems. The wing is completely new.

The only thing about the 737 that's the same is the fuselage. Its a valid competitor, to be sure.

Airbus needs to build a plane that covers the 300 - 500 seat market.

Fly by wire save weight, optimise the flight so save petrol because it's offer a better aerodynamic efficiency.

Concerning the electrical design, exept the really last models, they are far away even from 777.

For wings design, because they have got still short leg it's not efficient.

In fact these comments are not negative ones, the 320 was launch 20 years after the original 737, and it's still a very good plane, which is continue to be sold, but the price of petrol will continue to grow and Embraer, Bombardier, China and Russia are interest about this market (50% of number of planes in the world), so I can assure you that the replacement of B737 is more important than the new B747-800, it's may be as important at the B787.

Airbus and Boeing know that, and the technical fight as already began.



When you are right alone, you are wrong
User currently offlineJetMaster From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 10824 times:

Quoting ElGreco (Reply 21):

Fly by wire save weight, optimise the flight so save petrol because it's offer a better aerodynamic efficiency.



Quoting ElGreco (Reply 21):
For wings design, because they have got still short leg it's not efficient.

But the B737NG isn't known for having problems with efficiency and fuel burn, right?  eyebrow 


Regards,
JM


User currently offlineElGreco From France, joined Nov 2005, 164 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 10772 times:

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 22):
But the B737NG isn't known for having problems with efficiency and fuel burn, right?


Regards,
JM

Exept Easyjet prefered A320 for comonality and economy as AF.

Again this plane was and is good, but the future one in full composite, will be much beter!!!  Smile  Smile  Smile  Wink



When you are right alone, you are wrong
User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (8 years 10 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 10733 times:

Quoting ElGreco (Reply 18):
The B737 is really old design, far away from A320 familly:

Special engine and pylon design from the B737-400 because it was design for smaller engines, so too close from the ground,

No fly by wire,

No or only few composite,

Old manual reveting manufacturing,

Old electrical design,

Expensive technology, because too old,

El Greco, you're really showing your ignorance.

The 737NG has new larger wings, new high-lift devices, new engines, a new empennage, a new landing gear, a new electrical system, as well as, significantly modified fuselage sections (new materials and construction techniques), entirely new avionics, and a new cockpit.

As I said, it's a much a "new" airplane as the A350 is.

If it's so old and outdated, how do you explain why it is selling so well?


25 JetMaster : First of all, EZY chose A319s and those were cheap like peanuts. And AF built up a large A32X fleet long before any B737NG was available. You can't d
26 TheSonntag : While I agree with you that the 737 is still a competitive airplane, this is not correct. The A350 is based on the A330 which is a much more modern d
27 BoomBoom : I didn't say the 737NG was a newer design than the A350. What I said was the 737NG was as much as new design as the A350 is from the A330, because Bo
28 TheSonntag : Alright, I see your point and agree with it.
29 Ikramerica : Boeing has a distinct advantage in the 737 and the 767. Being so much older than the 320 and 330 in initial design, Boeing is now more willing to "mov
30 Abba : I think you are right in that the 777 is a big success for Boeing but also a relative weak point in that the 777 is now so old that newer technology
31 Grantcv : If the next big airplane battle is to be in the A32X/B73X market, what key new innovations will drive the need to develop entirely new aircraft? Will
32 Post contains images SWISSER : B737NG is a very modern plane, it looks old, but is isn't! The biggest difference to me in the eyes of a pilot between the A32S and the B73NG is that
33 Ken777 : Waiting for A or B to announce a replacement for the single aisle plane is an interesting game. I don't think either wants to move before the 787/350
34 Abba : If Airbus announces a 777 competitor Boeing MUST respond whether or not they want to or not. Don't forget, that Airbus has two teams developing new a
35 WINGS : I believe that the next project for Airbus will be the introduction of the A322. This will allow Airbus to close the gap between the A321 and the A330
36 EI321 : They should have done that years ago
37 EI321 : Isn't the 321 already at the limit of how much the model can be stretched?
38 WhiteHatter : ElGreco, I see where you are coming from with this (shame the cheerleaders can't). However the 737 today is further away from the original model than
39 BoomBoom : So why do A320s crash at the same rate as 737s? There is no difference in the safety record of the A320 vs. the 737. Military planes often cost far m
40 SWISSER : So did I mention any safety record? 737NG was introduced 10 years after A320... But I would be very interested in a list of fatal accidents between 1
41 ElGreco : Hello Boomboom, WhiteHatter, Ikramerika, and others, Sorry to not answer before (it was impossible to connect Airliners.net) yesterday. I'm happy to s
42 BoomBoom : What are these details of which you speak? The only one I can think of is the slightly wider fuselage of the A320, but it's less than six inches insi
43 Art : Both A & B have a strong incentive to wait for this question to be answered before launching program(me)s based on this technology. Other unknowns ar
44 RayChuang : I think right now the next major program after the A350 will be a de facto replacement for the A320 Family of airliners. Most likely using the same fu
45 BoomBoom : They BOTH can't wait for the other to go first. Boeing has already made the leap with the 787.
46 A319XFW : Surely you mean A360.. After A350 logically follows A360.... But I guess the A380 does fall out of that pattern...
47 Stitch : I would think Airbus would want to concentrate on a narrowbody upgrade before taking on the 777. The A359 will encroach upon the 772 and 772ER, and by
48 Post contains images ElGreco : They are able to do the A320 familly in full composite, they already performed A400M wings in full composite, central box of A380 (around 7m x 8m x 2
49 BG777300ER : I think that this is what they should focus on. The 773ER has been selling VERY well lately and I bet Airbus would like a part of that.
50 Gigneil : Sure it can. N
51 Swissy : After following this very nice thread I must admit: very well spoken ELGreco. As for my self I am sure A or B will make sure that they can cover the m
52 Post contains links Abba : That's a bog question. There might be some problems here (ignore the hype here - if you can) http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...echnology/2002628
53 Post contains images Astuteman : It's pretty clear Airbus won't have anything new in the sky besides A380 + A350 until after 2010. Next model up? Not a "major project as such, but- I'
54 ElGreco : Again "internal" confirmation that Airbus started to work on "New Generation" of A320 family, internal development code name "30X" (may be in memory
55 BoomBoom : Except when it flies the A320 into the ground as it did at the Paris Air Show. There was an article in the Chigago Tribune earlier this year Boeing b
56 Zvezda : If I were Airbus, I would size it between the B777-200LR/B787-10X and the B777-300ER (probably nearer the latter so as not to compete with the A350-9
57 SWISSER : My bet goes for A420! Overconfidence in the Alpha Floor system (stall recovery) by the test pilot on such low altitudes proofed him wrong... In the i
58 BoomBoom : Fatal Airbus A320 Events
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