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Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8  
User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22905 times:

A few interesting comments.

Speaking of Airliner Forecasts...
A-380 WhaleJet: Even Less Demand Than Earlier Predicted

We are now revising our current Global Fleet Demand Forecast to accommodate the decision by Boeing to build a follow-on to the 747.

As before, the net in-fleet requirements for airliners in the +400 seat category is not expected to be particularly robust in terms of growth. However, the advent of the 747-8 represents the injection of new dynamics in the demand mix.

First, if this slightly larger model has significantly better economics, it would face strong demand mostly as a one-on-one replacement for the -400, as well as some A-340s. Since used widebodies will likely have very limited aftermarket demand as passenger airplanes, this would tend to shove a lot of additional 747-400s into the cargo conversion arena, which could have no telling what effect on residual values.

However, one effect it could have would be to yank just enough potential orders out from under the A-380 to make that program really, really financially challenging for Airbus. Just a dozen feet longer than the -400, the new 747 would not face a world where relatively few airports could handle it, making it a much more flexible aircraft than the A-380. And if the 747-8 can deprive the A-380 of say, 50 or 60 orders it would have otherwise registered, it could make sleeping at night much more difficult for the folks at Toulouse.

You Want the A-380? Or What's Behind Door #3? Boeing by no means holds all the cards. The A-380's flying now. The 747-8 is at least three years away. That means the pressure's on Airbus to peddle as many A-380s as fast as possible in the next 12 months to keep potential customers from deciding to wait for the new Boeing.

So for airlines, it's going to be let's-make-a-deal time with the local Airbus salesman. That, however, puts pricing pressure on Airbus - pricing pressure created by what right now is essentially a concept airplane.

The pressure is also on at Airbus to assure that the A-380 doesn't disappoint when it comes to promised performance and delivery dates. Otherwise, the Europeans will find that they've essentially built the successor to the MD-11.

Regardless, The 747-8 Will Take A Toll. As it stands, the A-380 has about 160 orders, give or take what might be announced this week at the air show in Dubai. With the 747-8 on the horizon, our initial pass at global fleet needs now points to a demand for fewer than 350 A-380s over the next 15 years.


One Nation Under God
311 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineKLMCedric From Belgium, joined Dec 2003, 810 posts, RR: 22
Reply 1, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22871 times:

This reaks of biased! A lot!

User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22849 times:

Perhaps, but he is frequently right. I found his comments appropriate.


One Nation Under God
User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22803 times:

I think he is correct in his analysis. If you disagree, please explain how rather than simply using the word "bias" and dismissing the ideas.

User currently offlineKLMCedric From Belgium, joined Dec 2003, 810 posts, RR: 22
Reply 4, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22801 times:

Offcourse you do!
Anyway, I don't think we need another one of these threads on here, there
are currently a bunch of these going on and we all know the outcome.
Some people have started threads on site-related, about occuring problems
on A-net, and I fear that this has a lot of potential to once more becoming
one of these problems! Consider me out of here!!!!

If this thread would unlikely happen to turn out to be high quality I'll be
more then happy to join in again!

Greets


User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22761 times:

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 4):
Offcourse you do!
Anyway, I don't think we need another one of these threads on here, there
are currently a bunch of these going on and we all know the outcome.

Interesting considering you are the only one turning this thread into that type of discussion.



One Nation Under God
User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1596 posts, RR: 18
Reply 6, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22752 times:

The man doesn't like the A380. He never did and probably never will. Look, you are either on the side of VLA for the future or not. Simple as that... There are some point that I agree, like the MD11 analogy if performance targets are not met... Also, the 747 will apply pricing pressure for both Airbus and also for Boeing. Since, this is small makeover for the 747... Boeing is better to handle this.

Nevertheless, Airbus is not an amateur in making deals so if anyone writes off the A380, like Boyd has, than I think they are being foolish for a start and ignorant at best. Airbus does have some pro's when it comes to this competition and of course Boyd fails to mention like no real competitor (550 plus seating), its all new engineering/wing, more floor space for a creative first class cabin, and Leahey on the sales team.

But anyhew, we won't find out for another several years of what future the A380 has so lets wait and see...

Just my 2 cents.



Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22752 times:

This is a unique thread based on new comments from Mike Boyd, like him or not, is an influential analyst. I would hope that someone would thoughtfully rebut his points rather than simply whine about a "bias" without being able to actually identify the supposed bias in the argument.

User currently offlineBoeing Nut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22699 times:

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 1):
This reaks of biased! A lot!

Annnnnnd, mark.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22629 times:

The widely respected Mr Baseler put down a good comparison for old & new aircraft technology recently.

I think one can translate it very well towards the A380 vs B747 (except 80's should be 60's).


http://www.boeing.com/randy/archives/2005/04/the_game_change.html


Aerodynamically, the A350, as proposed by Airbus, would incorporate some improvements. But it's still based on the A330, an airplane designed 15 years ago. And while the A350 would use the 787 engines, they'll be adapted to the A330 platform, so you won't get the efficiency of a totally integrated design.


Thanks for your wisdom Randy!


User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22586 times:

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 6):
Nevertheless, Airbus is not an amateur in making deals so if anyone writes off the A380, like Boyd has, than I think they are being foolish for a start and ignorant at best. Airbus does have some pro's when it comes to this competition and of course Boyd fails to mention like no real competitor (550 plus seating), its all new engineering/wing, more floor space for a creative first class cabin, and Leahey on the sales team.

I do not think he has "written off" the A380 per se. Rather he points out the demand for that size aircraft is not lively to begin with and that Boeing has potentially knocked some of the legs out from under the demand that exists for the A380.

I do agree with you though that he inaccurately lumps both aircraft into the 400+ seat category which misses the distinction that you point out.


User currently offlineJetMaster From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22578 times:

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
it would face strong demand mostly as a one-on-one replacement for the -400, as well as some A-340s.

B747-8 as an A340 replacement? What is that guy talking about?

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
Since used widebodies will likely have very limited aftermarket demand as passenger airplanes

What a generalized statement...it simply depends on the aircraft type. Widebody is not widebody. And if he refers to used B744s, these have had no problems in finding new pax operators (e.g. Air India, Cathay Pacific, Corsair).

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 6):
Airbus does have some pro's when it comes to this competition and of course Boyd fails to mention like no real competitor (550 plus seating), its all new engineering/wing, more floor space for a creative first class cabin

You summed it up very well. Ignoring these aspects is not what one would expect from an (objective?) analyst.


Regards,
JM


User currently offlineSlider From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6658 posts, RR: 35
Reply 12, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22535 times:

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 4):
If this thread would unlikely happen to turn out to be high quality I'll be more then happy to join in again!

On that note, I think Boyd's comments are valid. There will be some operators out there that look at demand on some high-demand low-freq routes and may determine that the 450 seat option is a better one than the VLA 380.

He's correct in that it will have an impact--what the magnitude of the impact will be remains to be seen. But if some existing 744 operators opt for the updated whale, and do so at the expense of the 380, it would be detrimental for Airbus.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
Thanks for your wisdom Randy!

Couldn't agree more- he's speaking from forked tongue. The indictment against the 350 is the same grounds as what he's now going to have to backpedal from with the 748.

One critical distinction, however: the 787 was a clean sheet design, to which Airbus reluctantly responded out of competitive response. They are perfect competitors in midsize widebodies.

The 748 is not meant to be a straight up competitor for the 380, as it's a different seating size entirely, but Boeing certainly is targeting the 380 in its propaganda thus far.


User currently offlineA319XFW From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22511 times:

Who is Mike Boyd (sorry for being ignorant)? And if he's a respected analyst (I'm guessing here) why does he use the term "WhaleJet" which I've never heard outside of A.net.......

Also why do people think that composites are the be-all-end-all in aviation?
Metal's aren't dead yet!

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
I think one can translate it very well towards the A380 vs B747 (except 80's should be 60's).

I do hope you mean the A380 is equivalent to the 787 in that comparison!


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9834 posts, RR: 96
Reply 14, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22491 times:
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Quoting N79969 (Reply 3):
I think he is correct in his analysis. If you disagree, please explain how rather than simply using the word "bias" and dismissing the ideas.

OK, I'll have a go.

About 130 A388 Pax versions sold already.
FEDEX strongly beleieve that there's a market for 200+ freight A380's, and don't tell me they didn't know about the 748
Strong indications from existing customers (like SQ) re the take-up of existing options (could be 100 frames)

I've got to 430 so far.

There will be other 388 customers appearing (like Kingfisher). Furnish a number

Now factor in the A389, when it comes.

No question that this aircraft will have more advantages than the A388 in an admittedly small segment.
But based on comments from EK, VS, Fedex etc, 150-200 frames would be no great surprise.

500 sales is almost beyond question. 700 entirely possible (double boyd's forecast).

Never used the word "bias" once  Wink.
A


User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 22441 times:

Astuteman,

Very nice work...Your post should be the template.


User currently offlineRedChili From Norway, joined Jul 2005, 2179 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 22366 times:

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
the new 747 would not face a world where relatively few airports could handle it, making it a much more flexible aircraft than the A-380.

I've also seen Boeing claim this "advantage" of the B748 over the A380. But seriously, almost all major airports are ready, or will shortly be ready, to receive the A380. Those few airports which are so small that they will not prepare for the A380, will probably never get any B748 flights either.

Boyd himself suggests something like 50-60 sales for the B748, and I really don't think that those 50-60 airplanes will be used on flights to small, secondary airports. It's quite obvious that they will fly to LHR, LAX, HKG, JFK, JNB, BKK, SIN, SYD, NRT, etc. And they are ready for the A380.

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
With the 747-8 on the horizon, our initial pass at global fleet needs now points to a demand for fewer than 350 A-380s over the next 15 years.

An extremely low number, considering that Airbus has already sold almost half of that, one year before EIS.

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
Speaking of Airliner Forecasts...
A-380 WhaleJet: Even Less Demand Than Earlier Predicted

Hmmm. Calling the A380 a "WhaleJet" in a forecast which is made public, gives the impression that the author is trying to portray an emotinally negative picture of the A380 from the very beginning.



Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 22317 times:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
FEDEX strongly beleieve that there's a market for 200+ freight A380's

IMO, it's slightly more complicated than FX purchasing 200 new build A380s outright. FX predicted a fleet of 200 A380s in 20 years. A mix of A388s and A389s, new builds as well as conversions. Historically, at least, FX has frequently fulfilled its needs via conversions. Perhaps FedEx is anticipating the A380 will play-out in the marketplace much like the MD-11, DC-10, A306, and A310: modest success to failure as pax transports, which will be available on the after-market in the mid-term/long-term in adequate numbers and at reasonable prices for conversion to freighters.


User currently offlineStarrion From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1122 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 22267 times:

The most compelling disadvantage of the A380 is that the 748 can fly into any airport that can take a 744, where modifications have to be made for A380's.

That said, I also think he is on the low side for the total # of frames over 15 years. The make or break for the whole A380 program will be EIS. If the plane is reliable in service and meets it's performance numbers, then we will see more of them.

One area I would be surprised at would be A380 freighters. 744 conversions would be a lot cheaper. I would be very surprised to see 200+ package freighters, whereas the 744 can be used for general cargo.



Knowledge Replaces Fear
User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12404 posts, RR: 100
Reply 19, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 22207 times:
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First, I'm not the biggest Boyd fan, but to ignore his comments is foolish. While, like everyone, he has his biases, that doesn't mean he's wrong.

Quoting N79969 (Reply 7):
This is a unique thread based on new comments from Mike Boyd, like him or not, is an influential analyst.

 checkmark 

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
That means the pressure's on Airbus to peddle as many A-380s as fast as possible in the next 12 months to keep potential customers from deciding to wait for the new Boeing.

 checkmark  Once the A388 gets economy of scale, it has a niche that no other airframe is in. As much as I like the queen of the sky, the reality is that at certain airports, there is going to be a demand for the largest economical airframe.

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 4):
If this thread would unlikely happen to turn out to be high quality I'll be
more then happy to join in again!

Hopefully we can keep this one above water. Unfortunately, on a.net, this is a valid critisism when A or B is involved.

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 6):
Airbus is not an amateur in making deals so if anyone writes off the A380, like Boyd has, than I think they are being foolish for a start and ignorant at best.

 checkmark  It could have been written the other way, the A388 sales have already put a hit in the 748 sales..

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
FEDEX strongly believe that there's a market for 200+ freight A380's,

Here is a customer I would listen too. FEDEX doesn't care about the nose door and definitely has the pulse on the package market. With UPS and FEDEX expanding into more niches of the global supply chain, its impossible for them not to grow. (Think of the size their China hubs will grow too...)

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):

Now factor in the A389, when it comes.

I'll once again note my opinion that this is the plane the A380 was meant to be.  bigthumbsup 

That said, I see a lot of 748F's going out the door for the next 15 years. Personally, I think the new EU/US open skies will do more against the A380 than the 748, but that's only my opinion.  spin 

FYI, the link to Boyd. Worth reading once a week:
http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm

Lightsaber



I've posted how many times?!?
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 20, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 22175 times:

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 11):

B747-8 as an A340 replacement? What is that guy talking about?

The B747-8 replacing A340-600s seems unlikley but possible. The B747-8 replacing any other A340 variant seems absurd.

Quoting A319XFW (Reply 13):
And if he's a respected analyst (I'm guessing here) why does he use the term "WhaleJet" which I've never heard outside of A.net.......



Quoting RedChili (Reply 16):
Hmmm. Calling the A380 a "WhaleJet" in a forecast which is made public, gives the impression that the author is trying to portray an emotinally negative picture of the A380 from the very beginning.

I frequently see the nickname WhaleJet used outside A.net in a friendly and unbiased manner. Whales are cute and most people have positive associations with them. I just don't see how anyone can claim the WhaleJet nickname is in any way derogatory. It's nicer than calling the B747 JumboJet, which is long accepted.

Quoting A319XFW (Reply 13):

Also why do people think that composites are the be-all-end-all in aviation?
Metal's aren't dead yet!

Many believe the transition from aluminium to composites will be as significant as the transition from wood and fabric to aluminium. That may be optimistic, but it is not far-fetched. We'll have to wait and see.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
Strong indications from existing customers (like SQ) re the take-up of existing options (could be 100 frames)

I've heard nothing of the sort. Quite the opposite, everyone I know at SQ tell me there is not a snowball's chance in hell of SQ exercising WhaleJet options. We'll see in a few weeks whether they order the JumboJet or the WhaleJet. I would take odds that they order the JumboJet.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):

500 sales is almost beyond question.

I think 500 is optimistic -- very optimistic -- but I wouldn't say it's beyond question. I could happen -- especially if the new JumboJet fails to meet expectations.


User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 22098 times:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
About 130 A388 Pax versions sold already.
FEDEX strongly beleieve that there's a market for 200+ freight A380's, and don't tell me they didn't know about the 748
Strong indications from existing customers (like SQ) re the take-up of existing options (could be 100 frames)

FedEx has ponied up the money so I will take them at their word. I think your point is good.

I do not know about the "strong indications" from existing customers at Singapore Airlines though. Everything I have read indicates that they are not happy with Airbus right now which does not bode well for follow-on orders in the near or medium term in my view.

About a 1/3 of their pax airplanes are going to Emirates. I think those orders are good as gold. But I wonder how that will affect demand for the A380 from Emirates competitors. A lot of people seem to argue that other companies will have to follow their footsteps in order to offer a comparable product which result in a boom for A380s.

I disagree. In an odd way, I think the very large Emirates order may actually be bad for overall demand for the A380. I think that Airbus and the A380 program would have been better off had those 45 aircraft orders been spread between 3 or 4 carriers. I think the domino effect would have been greater for A380 sales.

The A380 represents such a leap in capacity that if other airlines were to bring in their own A380s to compete, the result would be bloodbath in fare yields. Even assuming that airlines are able to stimulate demand by offering low fares across the board, it would create a great deal of systemic risk for airlines to have that much capacity in the system year around.


User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 22092 times:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
About 130 A388 Pax versions sold already.
FEDEX strongly beleieve that there's a market for 200+ freight A380's, and don't tell me they didn't know about the 748
Strong indications from existing customers (like SQ) re the take-up of existing options (could be 100 frames)

FedEx has ponied up the money so I will take them at their word. I think your point is good.

I do not know about the "strong indications" from existing customers at Singapore Airlines though. Everything I have read indicates that they are not happy with Airbus right now which does not bode well for follow-on orders in the near or medium term in my view.

About a 1/3 of their pax airplanes are going to Emirates. I think those orders are good as gold. But I wonder how that will affect demand for the A380 from Emirates competitors. A lot of people seem to argue that other companies will have to follow their footsteps in order to offer a comparable product which result in a boom for A380s.

I disagree. In an odd way, I think the very large Emirates order may actually be bad for overall demand for the A380. I think that Airbus and the A380 program would have been better off had those 45 aircraft orders been spread between 3 or 4 carriers. I think the domino effect would have been greater for A380 sales.

The A380 represents such a leap in capacity that if other airlines were to bring in their own A380s to compete, the result would be bloodbath in fare yields. Even assuming that airlines are able to stimulate demand by offering low fares across the board, it would create a great deal of systemic risk for airlines to have that much capacity in the system year around.


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9834 posts, RR: 96
Reply 23, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 22071 times:
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Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 19):
That said, I see a lot of 748F's going out the door for the next 15 years. Personally, I think the new EU/US open skies will do more against the A380 than the 748, but that's only my opinion.

If there's 200 A38F's flying in 15-20 years, I'd not be at all surprised to see an even bigger number of 748F's flying.


User currently offlineRedChili From Norway, joined Jul 2005, 2179 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 21975 times:

Wow! Already 23 replies, and nobody has so far written a bashing post like "Airbus is stupid" or "Boeing are idiots." Is this a sign that a.netters are indeed able of discussing A and B issues without flaming each other and/or A/B?


Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
25 MidnightMike : Used 747-400's hitting the market can also be converted to freighters, so, Cargo Airlines, presently flying the older 747's may choose this time to r
26 N79969 : I do not think so. The A380 is visually striking and stands out. It does not look like an eagle, falcon, or a hawk. Anyway, I do not think the plane'
27 Post contains images Astuteman : I think you might have misunderstood. I was suggesting that 500 sales was almost certain to happen. Optimistically, perhaps, but, like Lightsaber, I
28 MidnightMike : The 747 has been called, the big pig, big iron, queen of the sky, etc. Nobody really cares about a nickname. When I was in the Navy, the A3 was calle
29 AirPacific747 : LOL this has to be a joke.. ofcourse Boeing's spindoctors would write something like that. Why would anyone believe it? Not saying Airbus is more righ
30 N79969 : I thought the B727 was called "The Pig." That is a good point...in the US ugly names for aircraft are regarded as affectionate. I am not sure what Bo
31 Scorpio : Actually, quite the opposite: they said they expect many A380-800s to come onto the market once their owners start replacing them with A380-900s. I d
32 DAYflyer : Comparatively speaking, the aircraft in question will both perform well, and the sales will be dictated by mission vs economics. Each will have certai
33 RedChili : Why would he want to sell Boeing airplanes? He is president of the Boyd Group and is not employed by Boeing. Why? He is the president of a company wh
34 AirPacific747 : I'm pretty sure Boeing paid him to say that. It is so far out that its rediculous. The A380 already sold well.. it is not even done with its testing
35 N328KF : Source? Or are you just guessing? He's an analyst, it's his job to make educated guesses. I suspect your guess is not educated. Just because you don'
36 Post contains images Lightsaber : Now that you mention it, I do recall FEDEX saying that. But with FEDEX grabbing up the used airframes, the resale will allow the A389's to progress i
37 PhilSquares : The current 380F has a floor loading of only 7 lbs/sq in, while the 744 is 9.9 lbs/sq in. So, I think the conversion of 380 to 380F won't be that att
38 N79969 : How are you "pretty sure"? Your assertion is wrong. Why is it so far out? Why not explain the flaws in his argument which is quite detailed and not r
39 Post contains images EA CO AS : Why? Because you happen to disagree with his opinion?
40 A319XFW : I think Alcoa and the other aluminium firms are trying out new aluminium alloys to improve (reduce) weight and strength etc. Granted composites don't
41 SparkingWave : The A380 has impressive economies of scale, but this only works for flights that have high demand year-round. Most of these are slot-restricted flight
42 DistantHorizon : No, he is NOT the only one... "We" are simply getting too tired of these kind of arguing... "We" don't understand why so many people spend so much ti
43 N79969 : The simple thing to do in such cases is to simply ignore the thread rather than preventing others from discussing something that interests them. Like
44 Welwitschia : If in 1969 someone would have said that in 35 years time the 747 would have been produced +/- 1300 times,that person would in most likelyhood have bee
45 Leelaw : Here's what FedEx's David Sutton is reported to have said at the Cargo Facts Conference: Meanwhile, FedEx has an eye on the ex-passenger A380 fleet f
46 Post contains images AirPacific747 : by my a.net fellas Ok, I admit that it wasn't the best idea to say what I said outloud, but I still totally disagree with him. It has nothing to do a
47 Zvezda : There are 210 airports that can accommodate the JumboJet. Are there even 21 airports that can accommodate the WhaleJet? Not necessarily. Notice that
48 N79969 : Then explain why. His assumptions and logic are straightforward. He states that demand for the A380 is not particularly robust to begin with and the
49 Mikkel777 : So the 346 was a very good 744 replacement, but the 346 can not be replaced by 748? Very objective! If an airport can get away without investing a lo
50 AirPacific747 : Because The A380 and 747-8 are still apart from each other. They cover two different areas of the market
51 AirFrnt : So even though the A380F and the 747F carry roughly the same amount of cargo (the A380 can carry bulkier but less dense matterial in addition) there
52 Mikkel777 : But they still fight for the same money. Most airlines will not buy both. What model an airline decides on, depends on so many factors, covered soo m
53 OzGlobal : What's all this '550+ seat market' business??? Almost all of the current carriers ordering A380 have officially announced seating configs of 475 - 520
54 DAYflyer : If I sit here and reread the previous A-380 posts, you are right, most airlines are not using it in the 800 seat configurations. Which I think is pre
55 AirPacific747 : Don't you think Boeing is making it efficient enough to save some seats just like the A380? I don't think airlines would cram the 747-8 full of peopl
56 ContnlEliteCMH : Indeed. How about the A-10 "Warthog?" Could there be a more endearing term for the A-10 than this? I like the term "WhaleJet." It adequately conveys
57 Ckfred : I saw on CNBC this morning that there is an article in the WSJ outlining the ATC limitations that could be imposed on the A380. Apparently, the distan
58 DistantHorizon : How many airports could acomodate the 747 one year before it's first comercial flight? How many people said, back then, that there was no market for
59 DAYflyer : Hum, perhaps bigger is not always better after all.....
60 Revelation : I don't think so: did you read the part in the thread starter where he says Boeing doesn't hold all the cards? I think a healthy skepticism is called
61 Texan : Sales to US airlines for passenger use will be hard to come by. The 747-400 is too large for the majority of international markets from the US, which
62 Post contains images Stitch : Even if Airbus felt that Boeing would do nothing to try and affect the A380 (and I don't believe they did), they knew that Boeing was not going to iss
63 N79969 : Much, much better than previous posts. I actually agree with you on this point. But I think Mr. Boyd is not implying that the two aircraft are head-o
64 Dazeflight : Follow the discussion on that topic here in a.net. Then try a little reading comprehension and learn, that these are preliminary spacings. Then read
65 N79969 : How do you know the likelihood?
66 BoomBoom : The world has changed since the 1970s. Don't simply assume that the A380 will follow the same path the 747 did.[Edited 2005-11-22 21:02:31]
67 JetMaster : First of all - who said the A346 would be a very good B744 replacement? And which airline has actually done so? Apart from that, the B748 is a plane
68 Byrdluvs747 : Could we see seperate standards in the US and Europed concernin Yes, how do you know that? If the wake turbulence is greater than a 747, then how do y
69 DAYflyer : And also only a couple of years after the AA crash of the Airbus A-300 at JFK when the rudder snapped off due to "pilot commands during extreeme wake
70 Malirm2 : I mostly Agree...but Boeing has it's own Military Projects that r really used by the American Government.
71 BG777300ER : What was the big deal with the MD-11 performance anyway?
72 AirPacific747 : I don't see how it has changed. The numbers of passengers travelling with aircraft was rising back then, and it still is today.
73 N79969 : I agree. At the time, the B747 was a revolutionary airplane because it really opened up mass international air travel. 35 years have passed and thing
74 N60659 : Exactly - fragmentation. Up until a decade ago, the easiest way to achieve a favorable cost structure for a particular route structure was to provide
75 Post contains links and images Keesje : How about Qantas, radio silence on their Dec 7 fleet decision.. Boeing said they expect no further 747-8 orders this year. Leahy is acting surprisingl
76 N328KF : You have this quote all wrong. They said to not expect any 747-8I orders this year.
77 BoomBoom : But the size of aircraft is decreasing. You used to need a BIG plane to fly a long distance, but not any more.
78 Keesje : Thnx for correcting. Is QF in the market for the 747-8F?
79 RedChili : Almost all A380 and B748 flights will only go to some 20-30 major airports. And yes, by the time the A380 enters service, those airports will be read
80 Mikkel777 : You don't need to expand your airport yet for an airplane that might start using it 20 years from now. It is cheaper not to expand, if no 380 service
81 AirRyan : The 748 will not be entirely different from the curent late-model 744's and the 747 frame at least has a longstanding proven record behind it. Could
82 DAYflyer : It is so interesting now that the 747 is in the same position vs the A-380 as the A-350 vs the 787.
83 Dazeflight : Like I said previously, these are preliminary measures. The plane is not certified and the wake turbulence tests aren't finished yet so of course the
84 MD80fanatic : No one knows anything yet, really. Here we have massive speculation about a known speculator's speculation. We all know the old tried and "true" sayin
85 RedChili : This is tru, of course. But it is also true that many airports are actively trying to attract new customers. ARN has been doing that for the last few
86 Post contains images FlyAUA : First of all... ...and second of all, it's making the same moronic comparison between two aircraft that are serving different market segments. Some p
87 BoomBoom : Sure it's flying now but Airbus has released precious little information on its performance except some vague claim that its "better than we expected
88 WingedMigrator : Is that limit set by the actual floor strength or is it simply max payload divided by floor area (i.e. limited by MTOW) ?
89 Keesje : I think Fedex mentioned they love the A380F because it can ferry 150t from the US to e.g. Shanghai/Shenzen non-stop. Crew, fuel & maintenance cost bei
90 Zvezda : Well, they can't. The trip cost for the WhaleJet is substantially higher than for the new JumboJet. The only hope Airbus has for getting the seat mil
91 Post contains images Keesje : Thnx for this insight. A380s 8000nm range from LHR..
92 Aither : This trip cost thing is funny : Whether you have/create a market to fill the A380, whether you don't. If you have then the A380 is the real cash cow c
93 Zvezda : CX and SQ don't believe the WhaleJet will be able to fly 8000nm with a useful payload. Given Airbus's optimistic predictions in the past, neither do
94 Post contains images Stitch : I am assuming that range chart does not take into account winds, Keesje, but your point is taken.
95 AirPortugal310 : Yes, and no. While the number of passengers may have been rising when the 747 was introduced, it also led to overcapacity in the market which, when c
96 Stitch : I understand that the seating dimensions (width, pitch, etc) that Boeing and Airbus use for First and Business (especially) have little to no bearing
97 Post contains images Keesje : A380s 7200nm range from HKG..
98 Glacote : I would just like to stress the fact the "Wh****jet" is perhaps starting to become a common nickname for Aibrus A380. This is probably what some expec
99 Astuteman : 23% is the correct figure (555 vs 450), in about 35% more space.
100 Post contains images WingedMigrator : It's interesting to note that Boeing's website does not make any claim about the 748's seat mile cost compared to the 388. It does say the trip cost
101 N79969 : The B727 was affectionately known as "the Pig." The A-10 is called the Warthog. People that came up with these names loved the aircraft. The same wil
102 TrevD : The thing to remember about trip cost is that it is real and absolute. It is yield (i.e. revenue) that is variable. The Problem with the A380 is that
103 Post contains links and images Jacobin777 : I'll second that notion.... MyAviation.net photo: Photo © Jacobin777
104 Post contains images BoogyJay : Yes, that's how I nickname it. We can maybe join using this nickname too , spreading it all over A.net. However, I think we'd have a hard time consid
105 DAYflyer : That many more seats for the increased weight and MTOW is not neccessarily an advantage.
106 Dougloid : As a practical matter, my dear fellow, your first premise may be true. The second and third are filed under the categories of "not proven" and "not p
107 Keesje : That's for sure. China has a $200 Billion a year positive trade balance issue with the US..
108 Post contains images DistantHorizon : I'm with you guys. We are still a minority, but that doesn't mean we are wrong! Regards DH PS - I like Superjumbo too. Not very original, but the nic
109 Art : "Better than expected" is acceptable to me with incomplete data. Do you feel they should provide the incomplete data? Bye bye new A388 customers if t
110 Zvezda : If the new JumboJet even matches the WhaleJet in CASM (for real-world seating configurations, not the tripe that Airbus and Boeing publish) then we m
111 SparkingWave : Why is this bashing? You are implying in your post that whales are ugly, which they are not. They are magnificent, graceful creatures and are the lar
112 Dougloid : All well and good, although Europe is not too far behind in the trade imbalance contest and the prospects are bright for China and India to do the sa
113 BoomBoom : I think they know how much it weighs now, disclosing that would be a start.
114 Abba : I think that we have a clue to something very important here that only few notice. The A380 provides 50% more floor space but only 35% more pax than
115 Dougloid : So let me see...you're suggesting that the seating configurations that are being suggested are now less than 555 and that means, to you, that they're
116 Post contains images WingedMigrator : Some interesting figures to add to this theory... In manufacturer's suggested seating configuration, the 748 seats 450 pax and the 388 seats 555 pax.
117 Astuteman : Of course they do. I've heard this one dozens of times. The thing that puzzles me is that in the majority of cases, and for the majority of customers
118 Zvezda : Eventually, there will be at least a few airlines (e.g. SQ) operating both the new JumboJet and the WhaleJet. Then we'll be able to realistically com
119 Abba : Which strongly indicates to me that what SQ, QF is going for is a new travel product. We do not need fuzzy math here to see that something new is und
120 Zvezda : Sorry, no. Where CASM is equal, the operator of the smaller airliner always wins. The WhaleJet needs to offer decisively lower CASM to counter the ri
121 Abba : You don't know - because until now it didn't matter whether you flew a 747, a 777, a 340, 767 etc in relation to what product you were able to offer.
122 Cloudy : If the airlines knew at the time that there was not enough demand to fill the seats, and if a smaller airplane with the same RANGE was available, the
123 Iwok : I would agree with your post if oil costs were still in the high 20's/barrel. The exception demand from China and India is putting intense pressure o
124 Post contains images Adria : Funny how you believe in everything that suits your opinion.....I wonder if you said the same thing if that "aviation analysis" would come from Europ
125 Shenzhen : On route A one day, route B another. Very expensive to simply change the interior config, as every change needs to be certified. Regading 23 percent
126 Post contains links and images Milan320 : Tell that to the pilot of this little chase plane : View Large View MediumPhoto © Konstantin von Wedelstaedt
127 Abba : No - wrong assumption. The 380 also have space. Potentially this might allow it to re-define travel in ways that we cannot imagine here and now. And
128 Post contains images Mikkel777 : I guess we'll go back 100 years then, and cross the oceans by ship? Large ships, with nice resturants, live music and spaceful cabins. Space is not e
129 Zvezda : What are you talking about? Swimming pools and bowling alleys? What can an airline install on a WhaleJet -- without driving up CASM -- that they can'
130 Cloudy : The reason the A380 has more space relative the amount of weight it can carry is simple. It requires 4 aisles, a huge staircase, etc. to meet evacuat
131 Abba : First point irrelevant on long intercontinental travel such as Europe-Asia. I am afraid so. That's life Things that takes up much space. And you thin
132 DAYflyer : Exactly. This is Mr Boyds point on how the 747-8 will steal a few orders away from the Whalejet. You will notice he is not directly BEHIND the beast,
133 N79969 : If there is a financial or aviation industry analyst out there who thinks the 747-8 is a bad or questionable move and explains his or her reasoning l
134 BoomBoom : (The A380-800) The A380-800 is the A320 of its model. The A380-700 is the 318/319. The A380-900 is the A321.
135 Abba : You seems to have a rather individual and original view of this matter. Abba
136 Adria : 1. pilots know how to fly an aircraft and that's all, what the A380 is capable or not is the concern of the management. 2. And the opinion coming fro
137 N79969 : Let me add that I would like to read an analysis from an investment bank or brokerage (from any continent) that is optimistic about the A380 program a
138 Post contains links and images Stirling : How so? Besides being called the Super Transporter, this aircraft is also marketed by Airbus as the BELUGA. Here's the weblink....notice the word "BE
139 PlaneDane : Adria, how then exactly can Boeing go around to the airlines claiming that the B787 and B747-8 are, at the very least, competitive? Are you claiming
140 N79969 : No it does not. Actually history shows the opposite is probably true. Following Emirates down this road with lots of A380s will simply push down pric
141 Astuteman : I'd be interested in seeing the evidence that supports that, out of curiosity. It wasn't my understanding. A
142 Post contains links N79969 : Astuteman, See table and also click story entitled "Giving 'em away" in right hand corner http://www.businessweek.com/2001/01_10/b3722108.htm
143 Post contains images Art : To me the primary virtue of the A380 is that the space it offers pushes the boundaries of comfort (say 480 pax) and CASM (say 800 pax) into new terri
144 Zvezda : That remains to be seen! The B747-8 may very well allow for lower ticket prices than the WhaleJet. We'll have to wait and see.
145 Post contains images Astuteman : Thanks N79969. I was hoping that this was the article to be quoted. The article (if you believe it anyway) states that customers can cancel "up to a
146 BoomBoom : I think yours is the "individual and original" view. If, as you say, the A390 is the base model and the A388 is the shrink, what is the A387?
147 TrevD : Actually Cloudy does have the correct assumption. The only benefit the A380 brings is indeed capacity and the potential for higher earnings due to lo
148 Post contains images BoogyJay : My understanding was that, like Abba, the majority of A.netters agrees that the A388 is the A318/A319 of the A380 family. A new Airbus? Wasn't aware
149 Post contains images BoomBoom : So A.netters are doing the product planning for Airbus now? Has Airbus said this or is this A.netters speculation again? It sounds like you're conced
150 PlaneDane : You're right. I was wrong. It is still quite unusual in my opinion.
151 Art : I'm speculating. One reason Boeing went ahead with the 747-8 was because there was no prospect of Airbus offering a competitive 450 seater.
152 Zvezda : My understanding has been that WhaleJet orders can be cancelled without penalty until one year before delivery. There is no way I believe they can be
153 Post contains images BoogyJay : No, people has come to this conclusion because we all know that the wing has been designed to support the A389 as were the A320-wings designed to sup
154 Post contains images Astuteman : Thanks, PlaneDane - that wasn't a poke, just a check for understanding. I'm no expert, but if the article is correct, then I think you're right. I gu
155 Vfw614 : Just a quick reminder: A driving force behind the concept of VLA might be somewhat difficult to understand for our American friends - high volume trav
156 BoomBoom : Oh, how condescending you are... And you seem to have difficulty understanding the concept of skipping large hubs and avoiding problems 1 and 2 as ou
157 Aither : When you consider how much money US airlines are losing, one could argue about the competence of these industry analysts. When you read these kind of
158 AJRfromSYR : It seems to me that the airline industry in the US was very strong right before a single memorable day.
159 Vfw614 : I am not. I was merely trying to stress that the situation on the Asian/European market is different from the US market. Your reply shows that I was
160 Aither : I don't think so. Of course it did not help.
161 Zvezda : Sorry, but there are few things the airlines like better than capacity constraints (if applied to their competitors also). Constraining supply drives
162 Dougloid : Well spoken....and as sure as god made little green apples, all the excess capacity now accruing will come on line in the next ten years or so, with
163 Post contains images Adria : I have to disagree. It's not about how many A380s you have in your fleet. It's about how profitable can you be on a given route. If the competitor ha
164 Vfw614 : With that theory, we all should either still be travelling in DC3 or in Boeing BBJs. That would have been the best way to constrain supply and it was
165 Zvezda : So, you're arguing that EK will dump all their WhaleJets for the newer more economical B747-8. I rather doubt that, but it's possible.
166 Stitch : One thing Airbus does need to worry about, vis-a-vis the A380, is the threat of global "Open Skies" initiatives. If the EU and the US secure OS, for e
167 Abba : I don't know the US industry well. But for Europe and Asia I do not believe that this model holds true. It forgets one important thing, namely that t
168 Post contains images Stitch : Ask BA and VS about LHR, LH about FRA, QF about SYD, SQ about SIN, and CX about HKG. And those airports can be served by smaller equipment, just as t
169 Aither : Many routes could have been opened before the open sky agreement and they were not so don't expect big changes. First on intercon market you need to l
170 JayinKitsap : But SEA doesn't have any nonstop to KIX, yet SEA is a large destination for Japanese travellers. SEA doesn't have a non-stop to Paris, Madrid, or Berl
171 Adria : You don't get my point do you? How on earth can you now how the B747-8 is going to perform (Is here the same imagination at work as it was with the "
172 Zvezda : You conveniently overlooked the words in my post "if applied to their competitors also." Also, most airlines bought the rope-start B747s not for capa
173 Mikkel777 : 332 can create higher revenue, but at a higher cost. Heavier plane with more powerful engines usually makes larger FF, and with 332-763 it is true.
174 Astuteman : Virgin + FEDEX have both stated this in public also.........
175 Zvezda : Thank you. FedEx especially makes a lot of sense. BTW, do you have a source you can cite?
176 Post contains images Astuteman : FEDEX was in an FI interview last month. VS was similar, but a lot longer ago. Can't find it to hand just now, but I'm pretty sure they did (anyone e
177 Zvezda : It's certainly an interesting idea. The problems are airport compatibility (even beyond accommodating the A380-800) and development costs of about 1-
178 Astuteman : I don't think they could do it before 2011-2012 EIS anyway, given current R+D commitments. A
179 Cloudy : This is a good point, and it explains a lot of the A380's present appeal - especially given that airbus has offered it at low prices. However, this i
180 Post contains images Adria : Well the bestseller 737 had some problems and the 747 was also a problem child at the beginning and look how many were sold, so check the history fac
181 Frodrigues : Being rude and simple AIRBUS is the first at the moment, Boeing has just to become first again (which is not easy). So whenever that is done I'll be t
182 Mikkel777 : You are still saying something that is not true regarding 332 and 763 Of course, since those planes are from Europe...?? Being from Europe myself, I
183 N79969 : You have it entirely backwards. The A380 is the evolutionary airplane...it will not open up any new city pairs. Even Airbus agrees with description.
184 AJRfromSYR : First of all I find it funny that you are playing "winners and losers", unless your 14 then that's understandable. I also find it funny that its "Boe
185 N79969 : I could not agree more. This airplane never changed the way the masses traveled. Rather it was a luxury confined only to the super-rich.
186 BoomBoom : Because the 707 was a success, and the Comet was a failure. Don't get too smug. The 737 outsold the A320 this year. Airbus has nothing to compete wit
187 N79969 : This is a bold but premature and overreaching statement.
188 Zvezda : That the WhaleJet will not be profitable for Airbus due to the high development costs remains to be seen. I suspect BoomBoom will probably turn out t
189 BoomBoom :
190 Adria : The flights between US nad Europe are a total different story then between Asia and Europe so...... Concorde changed the way people traveled because
191 Mikkel777 : For how many? Did that matter to the masses? They will be able to bypass the big hubs for the long-hauls, routes that could only be done by 744, 340
192 Abba : Wonder how many traveling from LHR and FRA is actually coming from these two cities. Certainly very many do. And because of that these cities gets ma
193 N79969 : By connecting new city pairs between the continents bypassing very large hubs. That would mark a change in travel patterns. If people can start trave
194 N79969 : Your reasoning does not make sense. The scencario that you suggest leads to one that no airline wants to see: dropping fares because of a capacity gl
195 N79969 : At a gut level I agree with you and BoomBoom. However his statement was very definitive.
196 Zvezda : The demand for nonstop service between a pair of cities is approximated by the equation CityApopulation * CityBpopulation / distance. By offering low
197 BoeingBus : Well written... couldn't possibly agree with you more... Many of you are reading to much into this... Does a product need to make money or achieve a
198 Zvezda : Thank you. I hope not to disappoint you.
199 N79969 : I do not think you understand the underlying value proposition of the A380. The airplane's big selling point is not cost savings. It is increased rev
200 Post contains images Stitch : Well fly-by-wire has been in military aircraft prior to it being in the A320, so by your own argument, the A320 is "nothing special" and therefore yo
201 AJRfromSYR : A320 is far from the first fly-by-wire. The 787 fuselage is revolutionary for a commercial aircraft: - Fully composite allowing for larger windows, h
202 Post contains images Astuteman : All absolutely first class points, once again, N79969.
203 Zvezda : I grant that this is possible in theory, but let us look at a concrete example in practice. SQ have already announced that they will be installing th
204 N79969 : I don't know the answer. But I am guessing that the SQ A380 premium cabin will have amenities over and above luxury seats. Between the ability to dif
205 Zvezda : I'm an SQ PPS member and I'm willing to bet that there will be no significant differences in amenities between the B777-300ER and WhaleJet in SQ serv
206 Cloudy : The 747-400 has been replaced in US-Europe routes as much by 767's and A330's as by 777 sized planes. These planes are MUCH smaller than even an earl
207 N79969 : I am not a member. I will defer to your judgment. But I would be surprised if SQ did not do something unique with the extra space at least at the out
208 Glacote : Good you please elaborate on this argument? You have a plane which can lift a given weight provided it occupies a small enough volume (B747). Or you
209 Mikkel777 : CASM and trip-cost is NOT the same You keep on asking for figures, when did you ever give any figures, instead of just try to flame people that in fa
210 Post contains links Zvezda : That would be an absurd assumption. During the time Boeing was recouping the development cost of the B747, it had no competition. No other airliner c
211 Abba : I believe that the number of new airports you are to see in China in the coming years are very few (many existing airports will be expanded) I think
212 N79969 : Why? As GDP and per capita GDP grow, demand for air travel will expand in China and not just in the first tier cities. China is not short of space an
213 Zvezda : SEA, PDX, SFO, LAX, ORD, JFK, EWR, HNL, ANC, ATL, and DFW come to mind. That's 11 -- 10 if one doesn't consider ANC a "major airport."
214 Mikkel777 : + IAD, IAH, MSP, DTW, SJC That is 15 Edit: Forgot LAS. Makes it 16.. not exatly 3 or 4[Edited 2005-11-28 05:55:32]
215 Abba : LH and AF. If you believe that the Eastern part of China has no lack of space you have ever never been in China. One major concern often addressed in
216 N79969 : If you add in cargo, then MEM and SDF also count...and will be home base to all US registered A380 ordered thus far.
217 N79969 : Granted...Nonetheless the Chinese government will be able to seize land as needed even if the political cost gets higher. The bottom line is there is
218 Post contains images Iwok : PLease see Zvezda's comments below. Exactly my point. The 380 was designed during the el-cheapo gas years. With the explosive growth in Asia, I would
219 Shenzhen : Just about every airline in China has purchased the 787. All these different airlines operate from different cities/provinces, and will begin Interna
220 TrevD : Gladly, this is probably the most important issue for an airline contemplating the A380 to consider. What is the profit potential of a given route op
221 Vfw614 : A limiting factor for air traffic between Europe and Asia in the future will not be traffic rights, but airport infrastructure, i.e. the availability
222 Abba : So there are no figures? Funny though that the 787-8 is the heaviest aircraft Boeing is to build.... I doubt that they will used outside of Asia. But
223 Zvezda : I quoted figures in Reply 210, which you at least noticed and perhaps read, as you quoted part of it. The B787-8 is not the heaviest aircraft Boeing
224 Post contains images Iwok : WOW, the irony. Boeing's largest plane is also its heaviest... And your point is??? -iwok
225 Abba : How many of these are direct? Well look at it in this way: SQ has 3 connection points in the US but 9 in Europe CX has 3 in the US but 5 in Europe TG
226 Shenzhen : Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Macao, and Zuhai have opened new Airports in the last 10 years and Shenzhen have a new airport in the same location. If I calle
227 Post contains images Abba : that one wasn't pretty.... Misunderstand me right - and you will get the point right At 1067.9 pounds per pax the 787-8 is even heavier than the 767-
228 Shenzhen : Wuhan Air was purchased by China Eastern, however they aren't on the list as a 787 customer, so nothing was stuffed down their throat. I don't recall
229 Abba : No doubt about this one. The present government in Hong Kong seems to want to restrict as much as possible the flow across the boarder! I would not b
230 Zvezda : The passenger numbers you quote are based upon 8 abreast seating for the B787. A 9 abreast seating configuration would be more directly comparable to
231 Mikkel777 : All are direct and non-stop. Since you don't seem to know anything about these routes, I'll point them out for you IAD: All Nippon Airways NH 1 IAD-N
232 Post contains links Abba : I am afraid that this is not the full explanation. I shall not claim to be an expert but I do find that there are some funny things to be seen in the
233 Abba : Thank you for the information. I still find them interesting - in particular that Al Nippon only have one point of connection the US and that the sam
234 BoomBoom : There's an understatement for you...
235 Post contains images Zvezda : Actually, it's not so interesting. You're missing some basic physics here. As a given structure increases in size, the strength increases with the sq
236 Abba : No I am not surprised at all. What surprises me is that if I uses the very same logic you are using to compare the 380 to the 747 I must reach - Surp
237 Airzim : A simple search of the web will lead to easy anwers for you. Japan Airlines NRT-JFK NRT-LAX NRT-LAX-LAS NRT-SFO NRT-YVR-MEX NRT-ORD NRT-LAS NRT-HNL N
238 N79969 : ANA also flies to JFK and HNL.
239 Stitch : I have a question on your figures, TrevD. If the trip cost of an A380 is $155,500 and the plane brings in $178,150 revenue in Conditions 2a and 2b, wh
240 Stitch : Part of it might be the presence of the US majors domestically and how they can feed passengers into a hub for the foreign airlines. SQ, for example,
241 Post contains links and images BoogyJay : I agree with you Abba about some analysis being inaccurate. The A380 might very well turn out to be more efficient than the B748 in CASM and if this
242 Jaysit : THis is the same Mike Boyd who said back in 2004 that the biggest threat to Boeing was the A340-500. Hello? Somehow I think that Mr Boyd is the 2005
243 Dhefty : The market has been growing continuously ever since the '60's, but it has not resulted in the B747 having an increasing share, in fact the opposite i
244 Abba : Sure. But the fact that Europe used to have individual agreements for each country each having their particular national carrier also - no doubt - co
245 Abba : No doubt most airlines will wait and see how the 380 is to work out before ordering any new passenger 748s. Abba
246 BoeingBus : The same can be said conversely. They are both going to sell well... but again, the airline needs the additional capacity requirement in their RFP be
247 Dhefty : But they already know the performance characteristics of the B747 for passenger use, yet no orders are forthcoming. Why not? There should be many lon
248 Jaysit : I wouldn't quite say that. Many of the 767s, A340s and early 777s replaced DC-10s, L1011s, A310s and MD-11s, but at the same time offered capacity th
249 Dhefty : Slot constraints? This is always sited by VLA advocates, but even at the most so-called slot constrained airports, most of the take-offs and landings
250 Glacote : Guess who is the largest exporter in the world? No, it is not Europe. It is Germany. Alone. Agreed of course. This is why I repeatedly asked about th
251 Dhefty : An interesting observation, but quite inaccurate. As with all US/EU debates, the EU people quote the economic statistics in a most peculiar way. The
252 Post contains images Zvezda : Trip costs matter because loads vary (in particular by season). Flying a WhaleJet half-full half the year is unattractive, as is parking it half the
253 Post contains images Iwok : Well said As Zvezda mentioned, several factors come into play; drag, weight, engines etc. I have not been able to find sufficient technical details o
254 TrevD : Stitch - thanks for pointing this out - I actually got ahead of myself and ended up missing the final comparison. Here's how it should actually look.
255 Areopagus : CASM = Cost per Available Seat Mile. But it is, of course, an average.
256 Zvezda : Yes. TrevD, this is now correct, but incomplete. The interesting part is when the passenger demand is between 380 and 500 (given the numbers in your
257 BoogyJay : One can reasonably assume that AF is objective in their analysis whereas Boeing tries to turn things into the 748's advantage. It's no secret that OE
258 Post contains links Abba : For my argument I used the very same site as Zvezda used in his argument, namely the following: http://theaviationspecialist.com/master_weight_data.g
259 KLMCedric : Ok first of all, I admit I was wrong, this thread has turned out rather civilised, so sorry and congrats to everybody. I have a question though. I am
260 TrevD : Zvezda, good post and interesting point. What you're describing is basically the spill model and revenue management. The key point to remember is you
261 Post contains images Ikramerica : This is the kind of analysis that ANA used to switch the 773ER onto the JFK run. It allowed them to cut out the least profitable Y pax without damagi
262 N79969 : You miss the point. Boyd's criticism (or anyone else's here) is not aimed at the airline decision to acquire A380. It clearly makes sense for airline
263 Jaysit : Why? Because in the past 5 years all the big 747 operators (except perhaps for BA, JL and the bankrupt US carriers) and new customers for 747-sized a
264 Post contains links TrevD : BoogyJay - thanks for your kind comments and thoughtful response. I'll respond to a few of them here and let's see if we can continue to dialog. No q
265 Post contains images KLMCedric : Well here's my opinion/forecast for the A380, for what it matters. The A380's success will come nowhere near the 747 program succes. It will even be e
266 Zvezda : You're overlooking the fact that an airline can't fit 380 F+C seats into a B747. There are two reasons why the 48% more floor space in the WhaleJet t
267 Jaysit : But this was also its selling point, much in the same way that it was for early model 747s and wide-bodied trijets. And the higher space per passenge
268 Post contains images Stitch : I agree that the A380s will first be placed on the times/routes with the most demand, as that has always made the most sense. In all honesty, I think
269 Zvezda : There are two daily nonstops between FRA and SFO both currently B747-400s. One is operated by LH and the other by UA, though they codeshare on each o
270 Post contains images Stitch : I'm using hypotheticals more then specifics, Zvezda. I am sure someone has put down an exhaustive list of where traffic patters between a city pair ju
271 Post contains images Zvezda : I think the list of actual city pairs between which an airline operates at least 4x daily B747 service is even smaller than the list you provided. Ho
272 Abba : That is for the system as a whole. Two aisles for a 3-4-3 and two aisles a 2-4-2 (Y) seating will give a number of isles per seat somewhere in betwee
273 BoomBoom : I won't. Abba, you don't know what you're talking about.
274 Zvezda : 3-5-3 seating on the main deck of a WhaleJet is not only possible but likely -- at least in the case of EK given their 3-4-3 B777 seating. You appear
275 TrevD : Yes, that is what systemwide means. Are you suggesting that the A380 will somehow garner significantly higher load-factors than SQ's system-wide aver
276 Post contains images Abba : I have seen a few arguments (however vague) explaining that I could not compare the 787 to the 767 in the same way as you compared the 380 to the 748
277 Abba : Based on my traveling with SQ over the years I would expect there to be a significantly higher load-factor on their inter-continental routes than on
278 TrevD : Again, SQ's financial data does not bear this out. While load-factors on SQ's inter-continental routes (America's & Europe) have trended higher than
279 Post contains links and images Iwok : Lets hope and pray that the current 10nm separation on final can be reduced to 747 levels. Otherwise extreme creativity will be needed to prevent the
280 Iwok : Oops, a) should have been the sedan. iwok
281 Zvezda : To keep it simple: range. The A380-800 and B747-8 have roughly similar range, so the structural efficiency numbers are comparable. The Boeing B787 ha
282 Abba : interesting data. However, in order for them to become very interesting, we need to have the turnover for the regions as it is not the earnings per s
283 Stitch : In the case of a fare war, would one not want to employ a larger plane to try and maximize the number of low-yield passengers to try and make up on "
284 N328KF : You obviously haven't driven some of the Euro sedans gobs of torque.[Edited 2005-11-30 15:35:02]
285 Jaysit : Why is it contradictory? East Asian routes are heavily regulated as far as fares go. Plus, SQ's frequencies to East Asian destinations such as HKG, B
286 Ikramerica : No he's not. You just didn't read his caveats about the data. His demonstration is not pointless, as it shows that the A380 can't expect high load fa
287 Jaysit : You need a crash course in statistics. Or perhaps you are just missing the trees for the forest (to flip an oft-quoted phrase). An average load facto
288 Abba : Don't forget that structural efficiency is a relative term that measure max payload relative to OEW. In this way the SUV might actually be more struc
289 Abba : 80% load factor is possibly the max any airlines really want as higher load factors would force it to deny too many pax too often. Then it will have
290 Zvezda : No, the B787-3 and the B787-8 have the same wing -- only the wingtip extensions are different. Try looking at it this way: Pick a mission (payload an
291 Ikramerica : Okay. The load factors are 10% lower on the intra-asian routes despite what you say. Since they have so much overcapacity, you'd expect more of a spr
292 Airzim : I have a possible scenario I'd like to pose that's also troubled me about the A380. If you increase your capacity on a already constrained city pair w
293 Dougloid : You've got it right. If you've got two cars-one weighing 3,000 pounds and the other weighing 4,000 pounds, but they both have 6 seats and comparable
294 Zvezda : Be sure not to fall into the error of assuming that the revenue per square meter of floor space is necessarily higher in one class than other. Thank
295 BoomBoom : I don't claim superior knowledge and insight. You said you do not really know what you're doing, and have a poor and limited understanding of structu
296 Abba : Surely, the 3,000 pounds car is the most OVERALL efficient (in certain situations that is - see below) - but you cannot conclude that that it is for
297 OldAeroGuy : Bravo, you've just described the A346 vs 773ER situation. Although I hesitate to agree with your definition of structural efficiency.
298 Zvezda : That's why I didn't make it so explicitly before. I thought it was obvious. It took me a while to figure out that that's what you were overlooking. I
299 Abba : As defined here and on the data sheet we are referring to is defined as max load/OEW. I can think of many much better definitions as well. But this i
300 Zvezda : One can say the B747-8 beats the A380-800 in structural efficiency because the former has at least the range of the latter. One cannot make such a st
301 TrevD : Hi Jaysit - let me elaborate and I think you'll agree... It is an interesting contradiction because the greatest component of overall revenue share c
302 Post contains images Iwok : Well, in the case of a fare war, you might want to add/remove capacity as needed and this is easier & cheaper to do with smaller a/c. Probably one of
303 Post contains images Abba : Well, have you ever considered starting an airline using rockets as a mean of transport? As fuel is counted as load and not as OEW in the equation th
304 Zvezda : That's really quite simple. The B787-8 is optimized for its mission, with one notable exception: the wing has enough lift to accommodate the MTOW of
305 Post contains images Abba : That's that simple! (I would have needed many more words than that to say the very same thing!) What Zvezda here says in fact implies that an optimiz
306 DAYflyer : I have enjoyed reading all of these well informed and highly intelligent posts from all concerned. This has been a great debate. But alas I fear that
307 Glacote : Zvezda, I have to apologize but I don't understand your claim regarding individual trip cost. Load factor is an orthogonal question. If both planes (r
308 Post contains images BoogyJay : Very interesting thread with (few exceptions apart) civilized manners and respectful posters. I hadn't the time to follow and came back with 50 new an
309 Mikkel777 : CASM is Cost for every Available Seat Mile. That is, if a plane with 300 seats flies 1000miles for a cost of $100 000, CASM is $100 000/(300seats*100
310 Abba : I must protest STRONGLY. The 772 to CPH is ALWAYS full (that is every time (except one) I have been on it on a regular basis different times of the y
311 Post contains images BoogyJay : I stand corrected. Thanks for your analysis along all this thread. You've input some nice ideas/facts/knowledge. The above is a good example of that.
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